One year between 2022 and 2026 likely to be the warmest on record, says a new report

May 10, 2022

By: Vaamanaa Sethi

Average global temperature

A new World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report revealed that there is a 50:50 chance of the annual average global temperature temporarily reaching 1.5C above the pre-industrial level at least once in the next five years.

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Warmest year between 2022 and 2026

The report further highlighted that there is a 93 percent chance of one year being recorded as the warmest between 2022 and 2026 and dislodging 2016 from the top ranking.

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Five year average

There is also a 93 percent possibility that the five-year average for 2022-2026 may be higher than the last five years (2017-2021), according to the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update.

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Chances of temperature exceeding is higher now

The chances of temperature increasing by 1.5C have risen steadily since 2015, from negligible or close to zero earlier – the probability is currently at 10 percent between 2017 and 2021 and this may further rise to nearly 50 percent for 2022-2026 period.

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What do experts say?

“This study shows – with a high level of scientific skill – that we are getting measurably closer to temporarily reaching the lower target of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. The 1.5C figure is not some random statistic.”

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It is rather an indicator of the point at which climate impacts will become increasingly harmful for people and indeed the entire planet,” said WMO secretary general Prof. Petteri Taalas.

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Temperatures will continue to rise

He further added that temperature rise, warmer and more acidic oceans and melting of sea ice and glaciers will continue as long as we continue to emit greenhouse gases.

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Global average temperature in 2021

In 2021, the global average temperature was 1.1C above the pre-industrial baseline, according to the provisional WMO report on the state of the global climate, showing we are inching closer to the 1.5C target.

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What does the Intergovernmental panel say?

The intergovernmental panel on climate change says that climate-related risks for natural and human systems are higher for global warming of 1.5C than at present, but lower than at 2C.

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Paris Agreement on climate change

Often referred to as the Paris Accords or the Paris Climate Accords, it was an agreement between 196 parties to work to reduce greenhouse gas emissions so that the global temperature doesn’t exceed 1.5C.

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