To measure the impact of human-caused climate change, the scientists from the
The models indicated that the intensity of rainfall has increased by 10 per cent due to climate change, they said.
The models also predict a further four per cent increase in rainfall intensity if the average
The scientists, however, said there is a "high level of uncertainty" in the model results as the study area is small and mountainous with complex rainfall-climate dynamics.
Having said that, the increase in heavy one-day rainfall events aligns with a growing body of scientific evidence on extreme rainfall in a warming world, including in India, and the understanding that a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, leading to heavier downpours.
According to scientists, the atmosphere's capacity to hold moisture increases by about 7 per cent for every one-degree Celsius rise in global temperature.
The Earth's global surface temperature has already increased by around 1.3 degrees Celsius due to the rapidly rising concentration of greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide and methane. Scientists say this is the reason behind worsening
The WWA scientists said that while the relationship between land cover, land use changes and landslide risk in Wayanad is not fully clear from existing studies, factors, such as quarrying for building materials and a 62 per cent reduction in forest cover may have increased the slopes' susceptibility to landslides during heavy rainfall.
Other researchers have also linked the
S Abhilash, the director of the Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research at Cochin University of Science and Technology (CUSAT), had earlier told PTI that the warming of the Arabian Sea is leading to the formation of deep cloud systems, resulting in extremely heavy rainfall in Kerala in a short period and increasing the risk of landslides.
"Our research found that the southeast Arabian Sea is becoming warmer, causing the atmosphere above Kerala to become thermodynamically unstable. This instability is allowing the formation of deep clouds," he had said.
According to the landslide atlas released by ISRO's National Remote Sensing Centre last year, 10 out of the top 30 landslide-prone districts in India are in Kerala, with Wayanad ranked at the 13th spot.
A study published by Springer in 2021 said all landslide hotspots in Kerala are in the Western Ghats region and are concentrated in Idukki, Ernakulam, Kottayam, Wayanad, Kozhikode and Malappuram districts.
It said about 59 per cent of total landslides in Kerala have occurred in plantation areas.
A 2022 study on depleting forest cover in Wayanad showed that 62 per cent of forests in the district disappeared between 1950 and 2018, while plantation cover rose by around 1,800 per cent.