"The sudden stop in US economic activity in response to the virus is unprecedented, and the early data points over the last week strengthen our confidence that a dramatic slowdown is indeed already underway," Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a Friday note.
2. Deutsche Bank: "The worst global recession since World War II"
The anticipated declines would "substantially exceed anything previously recorded going back to at least World War II," the bank wrote in a note Wednesday,
"We cannot stress enough the degree of uncertainty surrounding these projections," the economists wrote. "These are truly unprecedented events with no adequate historical example with which to precisely anchor our forecast."
3. JPMorgan: "Recession will rock the US and Europe by July"
"As we resign ourselves to the inevitability of a large and broad-based shock to global growth, the key issue is whether we can avoid a traditional and longer-lasting recession event," JPMorgan wrote in a March 12 note.
4. Bank of America: "The US economy has fallen into recession"
The economists forecast that US gross domestic product will collapse in the second quarter, falling 12% on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis — the biggest quarterly decline in post-war history — after growing only 0.5% in the first quarter of 2020. For the full year, the bank is forecasting a contraction of 0.8%.
"In the face of the most serious global health crisis in more than a century, fiscal and monetary policy makers around the world will have to pull out all the stops to prevent what currently looks like an inevitable recession from turning into a depression," Joachim Fels, the global economic adviser at Pacific Investment Management Co., wrote in a note to clients Monday.
That could send financial markets from "a drawdown to a meltdown," he added.
6. Morgan Stanley: Base case is a global recession
The firm now thinks that US growth in the first quarter has dropped to -2.1%, and is forecasting an almost 10% contraction in the second quarter of the year.
"Our previous assumptions are invalid and even our downside scenario is becoming too rosy," UBS economist Seth Carpenter wrote. "For now, we assume that the worst of the virus passes in the US by late April, but restrictions continue until the end of May."