Houston Texans* (-3.5) over Indianapolis Colts
The Indianapolis Colts are dealing with a lot of injuries right now, with receiving threats T.Y. Hilton and Eric Ebron both questionable to play on the short week, and top running back Marlon Mack out for the foreseeable future.
After a demoralizing loss to the Ravens on Sunday, I like the Texans to bounce back at home with a big win over their division rival.
Atlanta Falcons* (-4.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After a miserable, if bewildering, start to the season, the Atlanta Falcons have now won two straight games dominantly against divisional opponents.
On Sunday, they'll get their chance at a third, and I expect the offense to shine once again as Atlanta attempts to score their first home win since mid-September.
New York Giants (+6) over Chicago Bears*
Mitch Trubisky is an absolute disaster for the Chicago Bears right now, and even against a Giants defense that has been kind to opposing quarterbacks, it's tough to trust him as a touchdown favorite in this spot.
Unless you see the Bears defense scoring twice in this one, take the points and move on.
Cleveland Browns* (-10.5) over Miami Dolphins
Cleveland needs a big win at home, and thankfully, the Dolphins are arriving right on time.
Browns fans, fantasy owners, and commentators alike have all been waiting and waiting for a dominant performance from the Cleveland offense, and this feels like the week it finally comes.
Philadelphia Eagles* (-1.5) over Seattle Seahawks
Nothing about this line makes any sense. The Seahawks are possibly the best team in the NFC, with their only two losses on the year coming against the Saints and Ravens. The Eagles are 5-5 and sport a roster full of receivers that refuse to catch the ball.
Sometimes Las Vegas makes mistakes, but it feels like the bookmakers know something in this spot. I don't know what it is, but when a line looks this easy, it's usually best to go the other way.
Carolina Panthers (+9.5) over New Orleans Saints*
The Panthers are undervalued after the shellacking they took at the hands of the Falcons at home last week. The Saints are slightly overvalued after a reassuring performance against the Buccaneers.
New Orleans is the better team here, but this is too many points to give in a divisional game.
Oakland Raiders (-3) over New York Jets*
This looks like a textbook trap game for the Raiders, who have rattled off three straight wins and could have a division-deciding bout with the Chiefs next week if they can take care of business in New York. When the potential story for next week is laid out that clearly, it's usually best to fade it — football has a way of messing with your narratives.
That said, the Jets have won two straight games, making them less of a sneaky underdog here and more of a legitimate threat the Raiders won't take lightly. If you had told me at the start of the year I could bet against the Jets winning three straight games, I would have taken it in a heartbeat.
Denver Broncos (+4) over Buffalo Bills*
Despite their lousy record, the Broncos have played solid football for the past two months, and have proven their ability to keep things close, four of their losses coming by four points or less this year.
Wins over bad teams inflate Buffalo's record, and their reckoning is coming in the home stretch of the season.
Washington Redskins* (+3.5) over Detroit Lions
Washington is the most broken team in the NFL right now, but I refuse to bet Jeff Driskel as a road favorite.
That said, the best advice I can give you here is to take your money elsewhere.
Cincinnati Bengals* (+6.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers
The Bengals are going to win a game eventually, and this week, facing a divisional opponent at home coming off a chaotic loss that ended in a brawl, feels like as good a spot as any to back them.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) over Tennessee Titans*
Nick Foles first game back for the Jacksonville Jaguars didn't go as planned, but in a division with as much infighting as the AFC South, it feels like they steal a win here over the Titans.
Dallas Cowboys (+6.5) over New England Patriots*
The Patriots offense looked rather lifeless against the Philadelphia Eagles last week, and with Dak Prescott playing like one of the hottest quarterbacks in the NFL in recent weeks, I have faith that Dallas can keep this game competitive.
Green Bay Packers (+3) over San Francisco 49ers
The Packers got trounced during their last trip to California this year after leaving a day early for their Week 9 matchup against the Chargers. This week, the team is traveling on Saturday, leaving no time for nonsense and hopefully setting the Packers up for a big win against one of the top contenders in the NFC.
Los Angeles Rams* (+3) over Baltimore Ravens
Every casual bettor on the planet is going to be on the Ravens in this game. When the world zigs, we zag, so we're blindly backing the Rams and hoping the Los Angeles defense can figure out some way to slow down Lamar Jackson.
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