With Fed rate cuts imminent, what can you expect from the Indian markets next week?

Come the 18th of September, you'll find most newspapers and TV channels strutting to cover the impact of the Fed's potential rate change on Indian stock markets. Policymakers there have held the central bank's interest stable since July last year, within the range of 5.25% to 5.5%, to dash down inflationary pressures gripping the US economy.

This much criticised wait-and-watch approach, after the Fed held the rates stable in its most recent meeting in July, seems to be yielding some fruits now. US consumer price index (CPI) slowed down to 2.5% in August, down from 2.9% in July. With inflationary pressures approaching the 2% target mandated by Fed, experts were hoping of a 50-basis point reduction in interest rates this time.

However, employment data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics this month painted a less than rosy picture. Little has changed in August for unemployment rates and numbers, which stood at 4.2% and 7.1 million respectively. If anything, the numbers were elevated from year-ago period, when jobless rate was 3.8% and the number of unemployed people stood at 6.3 million.

Experts now believe a 25-basis point reduction in interest rates is imminent, since some positive changes were seen on the employment front. The total number of nonfarm payroll employment jumped by 1,42,000 in August, but still stayed well below the average monthly gain of 2,02,000

Says Raj Patel, CMO at MintCFD, a trading platform, "A 25 bps could show muted results from the market, however, a major rate cut in the magnitude of 50 bps could generate negative reactions, since it might show that the Fed is signaling major concerns about the economic outbreak. Indicators such as the retail sales, consumer confidence index, and services PMI are on a positive note. The Fed is focusing more on employment as the average US unemployment rate over the last three months, up to July, has increased by 0.5% as compared to the lowest point in the past year".

But why are Indian markets always so jittery about interest rate changes in the US? And should you be worried? We decode it for you.

Rate hike and cuts impacts foreign investments
Generally, large institutional investors borrow funds from the US and other developed economies, and invest in India, China and other emerging countries, anticipating economic growth, and hence, potential for increased returns in the times to come. This influx of funds is crucial for growing countries, since they use it to develop their infrastructure, which will in turn, bolster their economic growth.

The cost of raising funds from countries like US is relatively cheaper, given the interest rates here are not very high. On the other hand, borrowing costs in emerging countries like India are higher. At present, India's repo, or borrowing rate, at which banks borrow funds from RBI, stands at 6.5%.

While this may seem like a trivial difference, it decides the fate of trillions of dollars of investments. Even a 25-basis point hike or cut could bring about a significant difference when such huge sums are involved.

So, when Fed decides to hold the interest rate stable, or hike the same, it makes borrowing to invest in international markets expensive for investors. At the same time, it makes investing in US treasury bonds more lucrative and economically favorable, since investors are set to earn higher returns from them. As a result, investors rush to withdraw their money from other economies, and invest it in their own country i.e. the US.

For instance, in January 2024, Fed decides to keep the interest rate stable between the range of 5.25% to 5.5%. As a result, Indian markets saw an outflux of foreign investment that month, with investors withdrawing Rs 6,593 crores from markets.

Between March 2022 and July 2023, the Fed hiked interest rates about 11 times. As a result, during FY23, foreign investors remained net sellers, liquidating Rs 40,936 crore from Indian markets.

When Fed decides to slash rates, which makes borrowing cheaper, investors are encouraged to raise more funds, and invest more heavily in developing countries. This anticipation of funds stimulate the stock markets in a positive manner, which is why it is beneficial situation for countries like India, which, eventually, see greater investments from US and other economies. China and India are generally seen as favorite destinations for investors.

With the Chinese economy in doldrums at the moment, India can expect higher foreign direct investments (FDI) in the months to come. Just yesterday, China cut down interest rates on about $5 trillion worth of its outstanding loans, in a bid to spur consumption and borrowing in the economy.

But do not expect any immediate boosts in the equity market, as many experts caution. There have been many instances in the past where rate cuts did not boost equities immediately. This is because rate cuts are not the sole factor driving investments. If the corporates report slowed earnings, or weak growth, investors are bound to be discouraged from investing in the country.

Your best bet is to invest in sectors which have traditionally withstood market downturns, like insurance, telecoms and pharmaceuticals, and reduce exposure to sectors which are significantly affected by market cycles (think PSUs, auto, metals etc).