Reuters
- Consumer spending remains strong despite recession warnings and global economic slowdown, but Bank of America Merrill Lynch found a collection of negative signals that could drag on spending behavior.
- Slowed spending can incite a recessionary cycle by hitting company profits and prompting job cuts.
- The team highlighted non-mortgage debt, slowing job growth, and volatile consumer sentiment as the three critical threats to consumer spending.
- Here's how these threats could drag on economic expansion, and what to look out for.
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Data on consumer spending has shown consistent strength amid several recession warnings, but Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts found three threats that could curb the economic driver.
Consumer spending makes up roughly 70% of US GDP, and a slowdown in the key metric could slowly drain capital from the country's money markets. As consumers spend less, companies earn less, and jobs are typically cut to bring costs lower.
Warnings of global economic slowdown and continued pressure from the US-China trade war make consumer spending data even more relevant, as a hit to spending behavior could set the wheels of economic contraction in motion. Recent Federal Reserve rate cuts helped some secure a capital boost through debt refinancing, but consumers who don't own homes are expected to moderate their spending through 2019, BAML said Friday.
"The headwinds are stronger than the tailwinds, in our view," the team led by Michelle Meyer wrote. "The main challenge has been the weakening in the labor market coupled with heightened geopolitical risks."
Here are the three key threats to consumer spending detailed by BAML analysts.
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