Economic disappointment, no phase-2 deal, and the Boeing 737 Max's return to service: Here are Byron Wien's 10 surprises for 2020
- Byron Wien, Blackstone's vice chairman, released his "Ten Surprises for 2020" list on Monday. Joe Zidle, chief investment strategist in the Private Wealth Solutions group at Blackstone, assisted in creating the list.
- Wien has released the annual list of his views on economic, financial market, and political surprises that he sees as "probable" in the year ahead since 1986.
- Here are Wien and Zidle's "Ten Surprises for 2020."
- Read more on Business Insider.
For 2020, Blackstone Vice Chairman Byron Wien has a number of surprising predictions, including an S&P 500 rally above 3,500, a return to service for the beleaguered Boeing 737 Max and the nonappearance of a phase-two deal between the US and China.These predictions are a part of Wien's annual "Ten Surprises" list. For 35 years, Wien has released a list of his views on economic, financial market, and political surprises that he sees as "probable" in the year ahead. Advertisement
On Monday, Wien released his list for 2020 along with Joe Zidle, the chief investment strategist in the Private Wealth Solutions group at Blackstone. Zidle joined Wien in creating the list in 2018.
A surprise is "an event that the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place but which Byron believes is 'probable,'" according to the Monday report. That means that Wien thinks the chance of the event happening is 50%.The "Ten Surprises" list was started by Wien in 1986 when he was the chief US investment strategist at Morgan Stanley, according to the report. He continued the tradition even when he joined Blackstone in 2009 as a senior adviser.
Here are Wien and Zidle's 10 surprises for 2020:
1. The economy disappoints the consensus forecast, but a recession is avoided.
2. Inequality and climate change become important election themes, but centrist ideas prevail.Advertisement
3. There is no comprehensive phase-two trade deal that limits China's ability to acquire intellectual property.
4. The prospect of a self-driving car is pushed further into the future.Advertisement
5. Emboldened by the pain of economic sanctions, Iran takes advantage of America's unwillingness to intervene and steps up acts of hostility against Israel and Saudi Arabia.
6. Even though some observers believe valuations are stretched, a surge in investor enthusiasm pushes the Standard & Poor's 500 above 3500 at some point during the year.Advertisement
7. Big tech companies face growing political scrutiny and social blowback.
8. Having secured a workable Brexit deal, the United Kingdom turns out to be the winner in its divorce from the European Union.Advertisement
9. The bond bubble starts to leak, but negative rates continue abroad.
10. The problems with Boeing's 737 Max are fixed and deliveries begin.Advertisement
- Assam's COVID-19 tally rises to 11,736 with 735 fresh cases
- Kerala govt makes compulsory for public to follow COVID-19 norms till 2021
- Jharkhand reports 53 new cases of COVID-19, 1 more death
- COVID-19: Delhi govt orders compulsory rapid antigen detection test for high-risk individuals
- 3 hotels serving as COVID care facilities in Delhi delinked from hospitals over low occupancy