How to handle an inflation shock that no one is prepared for
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Joe Ciolli
Aug 11, 2020, 22:58 IST
Jason Sullivan/Getty Images
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Dear Readers,
How prepared would you say you are for a sudden spike in inflation?
If you haven't given it more than a second of thought, you're not alone. After all, the annual inflation rate for the US is sub-1% right now, and it's hovered around 2% for much of the past three years.
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As it turns out, clients of Morgan Stanley are similarly nonplussed by the prospect of an inflationary shock. It's an attitude the firm says has been emboldened by the lack of inflationary stress seen following the 2008 financial crisis.
But Morgan Stanley says to ignore the threat of an inflation spike at your own risk. It argues that conditions are vastly different now — especially as it relates to the expansion of money supply — and that a surge could occur. And to make matters worse, the firm says most investor portfolios are woefully prepared for such a shift.
Parsing Morgan Stanley's inflation wake-up call is just one example of the work being done by the Investing team at Business Insider. We're here to unpack the ever-changing market landscape during these unprecedented times. See below for our best stories of the week, including a wide array of recommendations, strategies, and tips for navigating uncertainty.
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Morgan Stanley points to the data plotted above — which reflects US money supply growth — as a leading indicator of inflation. As you can see, there's been a historic spike as the Fed has rolled out efforts designed to hasten a post-coronavirus economic recovery.
The firm qualifies this with another potentially damning observation: People just aren't worried about an inflation spike, nor are they positioned for one. Morgan Stanley sees this as short-sighted and potentially damaging.
"This is potentially more inflationary than appreciated which means back end rates can rise. Very few portfolios are prepared for such an outcome. Such shifts can happen quickly when they are so unexpected."
— Mike Wilson, the chief US equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, discussing the potential impact of further US money supply expansion
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