Indian markets ease as profit booking follows record-breaking streak

After several days of impressive gains, Indian stock indices saw some correction on September 27, 2024, as investors booked profits following a prolonged rally. The Sensex, which briefly touched the 86,000 mark during the trading session, closed the day slightly lower at 85,571.85 points, down by 264.27 points or 0.31%. Similarly, the Nifty index, which reached a lifetime high of 26,277.35, eventually closed in the red at 26,175.15 points, down by 40.90 points or 0.16%.

Market participants were primarily focused on locking in gains after the indices reached record highs. Sectoral performance saw a divergence, with banking, financial services, media, and real estate stocks facing pressure. Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, pointed out that after the recent surge, "the benchmark indices experienced a sideways movement today as investors engaged in profit booking at elevated levels." He further added that market participants are eagerly awaiting the second-quarter earnings report, which could provide clarity on future earnings potential.

Global factors and FPI activity

One of the key drivers behind the stock market rally in recent weeks has been the US Federal Reserve’s decision to loosen its monetary policy, with a significant 50-basis-point cut in interest rates. This move has resulted in a flow of capital from the US to markets like India, where policy rates are higher, thus providing attractive returns. The looser monetary policy in the US has encouraged foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to continue investing in Indian equities.

FPIs have remained net buyers in India for the fourth consecutive month, further supporting the stock indices. As per data from the National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL), FPIs have purchased Indian stocks worth ₹48,822 crore in September alone, a trend that has bolstered market confidence. The strong FPI inflows reflect optimism about India's economic prospects and its equity market returns.

Sectoral performance and outlook

Despite the overall market decline, the performance varied across different sectors. Public sector banks, defence, and railway stocks, which had seen significant buying interest earlier, took a backseat as pharma, private banks, and mid-size IT companies began to attract attention due to their appealing valuations. These sectors are now expected to drive the next market phase in the coming quarters, according to Krishna Appala, Senior Research Analyst at Capitalmind Research.

The markets traded in a narrow range for most of the day, with little overall movement despite positive global cues. An early rebound in the IT sector briefly boosted the indices, but the gains were short-lived. The broader indices, including the Nifty and Sensex, remained largely flat, echoing the sluggish performance of heavyweight stocks. Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President of Research at Religare Broking, noted that "sector-wise, pharma and energy posted solid gains, while banking and real estate sectors saw profit booking."

Looking ahead, Mishra maintained a bullish outlook on the markets, advising investors to use periods of consolidation or dips to accumulate quality stocks. He added that, in the absence of any significant domestic triggers, global markets will likely set the direction for Indian equities. On the Nifty index, he anticipated strong support around the 25,900-26,000 zone, with an upside target at 26,500.

Technical insights

Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates Ltd., shared his technical analysis of the Nifty and Bank Nifty indices. He observed that while the Nifty started the day on a flat note and registered a new lifetime high, it eventually faced profit booking and closed marginally lower. "Technically, the index on a daily scale has formed a small red candle, but on the weekly scale, it has formed a big green candle," Yedve explained. He added that as long as Nifty holds above the 26,000 level, a "buy on dips" strategy should be followed, with an immediate short-term target of 26,500.

On the Bank Nifty front, Yedve pointed out that the index started on a weak note and remained under pressure throughout the day, closing at 53,834. He highlighted the formation of a bearish Marubozo candle on the daily chart, which signals potential short-term weakness. However, on the weekly scale, Bank Nifty remains above the breakout point of a rounding bottom pattern, indicating strength. "In the short term, Bank Nifty may witness consolidation or profit taking, but any dip around 53,350-53,400 will offer fresh buying opportunities," Yedve advised.

Market wrap-up and outlook

Reflecting on the week’s performance, Amol Athawale, VP-Technical Research at Kotak Securities, noted that the benchmark indices had maintained positive momentum, with the Nifty ending 1.5% higher and the Sensex gaining over 1,030 points. Metal and auto stocks were the standout performers, with the Metal index rising by 7% and the Auto index by 4.5%. Athawale highlighted the importance of the Nifty and Sensex breaching key resistance levels of 26,000/85,000 last week, which has provided a boost to market sentiment.

Technically, Athawale pointed to the formation of a bullish candle on the weekly charts and an uptrend continuation pattern on the daily and intraday charts, signalling a potential continuation of the rally. However, he cautioned that "buying on dips and selling on rallies would be the ideal strategy for short-term traders." He identified 26,100/85,300 as crucial support zones for the Nifty and Sensex, with resistance expected around 26,400-26,500/85,900-86,300.

As for Bank Nifty, Athawale described the medium-term outlook as bullish but noted that overbought conditions could lead to range-bound activity in the near term. He suggested that 53,500-53,100 would serve as key support zones, while profit booking could occur near 54,500-54,800.

(With inputs from agencies)