JPMorgan quant guru Marko Kolanovic accuses his own peers of political bias, report says

• Marko Kolanovic, a top quantitative strategist at JPMorgan, alleged other bank researchers let political biases skew their market forecasts, Bloomberg reported Tuesday.
• "Wait so our commodities guys base their forecast based on our [foreign exchange] guys' forecast, which based forecasted based on our economist forecast, who bases his forecast on party preference," Kolanovic said Tuesday in an internal channel, according to a transcript seen by Bloomberg.
• In response to a trader's forecast that a Biden presidency would have "very little impact" on US oil pumping, Kolanovic reportedly called the claim "a joke" and said it "should be the opposite of that."
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Marko Kolanovic, head of macro quantitative and derivatives strategy at JPMorgan, accused researchers across the bank's trading desks of tying their calls to political biases, Bloomberg reported Tuesday.

Expectations for a Democratic sweep and front-loaded stimulus in early 2021 have driven major banks' market projections, but Kolanovic on Tuesday alleged the forecasts are tainted by individuals' political biases.

"Wait so our commodities guys base their forecast based on our [foreign exchange] guys' forecast, which based forecasted based on our economist forecast, who bases his forecast on party preference," Kolanovic said Tuesday in an internal channel with more than 250 workers, according to Bloomberg.

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In response to a trader's projection that a Biden presidency would have "very little impact" on US oil production, Kolanovic reportedly called the claim "a joke" and said the bank's forecast "should be the opposite of that."

"With Biden you remove Iran sanctions, and economy slows down under pressure of massive taxes, and COVID is treated with lockdowns," he said, according to transcripts obtained by Bloomberg.

One worker told Bloomberg the bank's trading floor went quiet following Kolanovic's comments.

A JPMorgan representative declined to comment on the Bloomberg report.

The quant guru strayed from more mainstream calls in recent months as major banks further prepared for a Biden victory. In an August 31 note, Kolanovic said investors could expect a 5- to 10-point shift in polling from Democrats to Republicans should pro-Democratic demonstrations turn violent.

He also said that "the liberal trend of 'cancel culture'" could be skewing polls in favor of Biden by five to six percentage points.

In early October, Kolanovic said President Donald Trump's contraction of COVID-19 could lift stocks by boosting his odds of reelection. A more serious infection could lower tensions between Democrats and Republicans and lift the latter party's chances of winning congressional elections, he added.

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