Traders work the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on May 05, 2022 in New York City. Stocks opened lower this morning after closing high on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve announced an interest-rate hike by half a percentage point in an effort to further lower inflation.Michael M. Santiago/Getty
TGIF, readers. Phil Rosen here, and I'm happy to share today we're wrapping up the week on a bullish note for a change. A top Wall Streeter dished out a rare bit of optimism amid a sea of gloomy takes.
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1. JPMorgan says stocks are primed to bounce back. And it could happen as soon as this year, as analysts say markets will have a strong outing for the second half of 2022.
Analysts said in a note this week that they expect the annualized inflation rate to get cut in half over the next few months, which would lead to central banks pivoting to avoid a recession.
"While the probability of recession increased meaningfully, we do not see it as a base case over the next 12 months. In fact, we see global growth accelerating from 1.3% in the first half of this year to 3.1% in the second half," JPMorgan said.
Still, JPMorgan says otherwise, and without a recession, stocks will have plenty of upside.
"So it is not that we think that the world and economies are in great shape, but just that an average investor expects an economic disaster, and if that does not materialize risky asset classes could recover most of their losses from the first half," the analysts maintained.
In other news:
2. US stock futures gained upward momentum and the dollar eased early Friday. This came after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell calmed some investor angst by pledging to fight inflation. Get your full morning wrap here.
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3. On deck today: CarMax, Carnival Corporation, and Cheetah Mobile, all reporting.
4. The chief client officer of a $15 billion wealth manager shares high-quality stocks to protect portfolios through a bear market. Aspiriant's Sandi Bragar is focused on shielding from volatility, while also taking risk where there's a strong upside. These are 10 cheap names she thinks will bring big gains in a turnaround.
7. Russian commodities traders are scrambling to set up shop in Dubai after fleeing Switzerland. One expert said Middle Eastern jurisdictions will gain in importance for those in the commodity business with Switzerland clamping down on trade rules as the Ukraine war rages on. Get the full details here.
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8. Within two years, a 28-year-old scaled to nine online income streams. He raked in up to $30,000 a month. He shared how he scaled, which platforms he used — and where the bulk of his earnings came from.
10. Lumber prices have fallen as mortgage rates hit a fresh 13-year high. "Fixed mortgage rates have increased by more than two full percentage points since the beginning of the year," a top economist said. Dig into the numbers.
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