Russia default risk over the next 5 years soars to nearly 90% after US blocks bond payment
Russia's five-year defaultrisk soared to 87.7% on Tuesday, according to ICE Data Services.
- That's up from 77.7% on Monday and 24.1% on February 24 when Russia launched its
The odds that Russia will default on its
Based on prices for insurance against a default, the five-year risk shot up to 87.7% on Tuesday from 77.7% on Monday, according to Bloomberg, which cited data from Intercontinental Exchange's Credit Market Analysis.
The default risk is also more than triple the 24.1% probability on February 24 when Russia launched its war on Ukraine.
Since invading Ukraine, Russia had kept up payments on its foreign currency denominated bonds, despite waves of Western sanctions and major ratings agencies saying in early March that a debt default was highly likely.
But late Monday, the US blocked JPMorgan from processing Russia's latest dollar bond payment.
"Russia must choose between draining remaining valuable dollar reserves or new revenue coming in, or default," a Treasury department spokesperson told Insider.
Meanwhile, Russian state-owned companies have inched closer to default on their corporate bonds. On Tuesday, Russia's second-largest bank made bond payments in rubles instead of dollars and euros.
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