The UK economy grew 0.4% in February - but analysts say a rapid vaccine rollout should now power speedy growth

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The UK economy grew 0.4% in February - but analysts say a rapid vaccine rollout should now power speedy growth
The UK has been fast at rolling out COVID-19 vaccines.Charles McQuillan/Getty Images
  • The UK economy grew 0.4% in February, following a 2.2% drop in GDP in January.
  • Analysts expect the UK economy to grow rapidly in 2021 after a deep slump in 2020.
  • The country has been one of the fastest at rolling out coronavirus vaccines.
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The UK economy grew 0.4% in February, data showed on Tuesday, starting what analysts expect to be a rapid rebound for the country from last year's deep COVID-19 slump.

The growth was slightly below analysts' expectations of 0.5% and followed an upwardly revised 2.2% fall in gross domestic product in January, when tough coronavirus restrictions were put back in place to try to tackle a surge in infections.

It left the country's GDP 7.8% smaller than before coronavirus hit, according to the Office for National Statistics, following a 9.8% drop in 2020 - the worst performance in the G7.

Analysts expect the UK economy to bounce back rapidly in 2021, however. The government is expected to gradually lift restrictions after a series of lockdowns that battered businesses and household finances.

"GDP rising modestly in February despite restrictions after a surprisingly small contraction in January shows the UK economy is now being less affected by lockdowns than was originally the case," said Howard Archer, chief economic advisor to the EY Item Club.

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"Lessons have been learned in keeping economic activity going during lockdowns."

Deutsche Bank senior economist Sanjay Raja said in a note on Monday he expects the UK economy to grow 6% in 2021.

"The UK recovery has begun," he said. "We don't expect to see another negative print for some time."

Raja added: "The modest February unwind should give way to an even bigger jump in March, where we see activity ramping up even more as schools reopen and mobility trends up."

Goldman Sachs reckons the UK's rapid rollout of coronavirus vaccines should help the economy reopen and recover rapidly, spurring growth of 7.1% in 2021. That is well above the consensus estimate of around 5%.

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The ONS said services - the powerhouse of the UK economy - grew just 0.2% in February, when the country was still under tough coronavirus restrictions. Manufacturing grew 1.3% and construction grew 1.6%, the ONS said.

The UK pound rose slightly against the dollar after the data was released, and traded around 0.12% higher at $1.375 on Tuesday morning.

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