The US economy's 'depression-like collapse' will set up stocks for a 'wartime boom,' according to a top Wall Street strategist

• The stock market may see a "wartime boom" next year following the US economy's "depression-like collapse," Jim Paulsen, a prominent Wall Street strategist, told CNBC on Wednesday.
• Economists have predicted that US GDP could rebound strongly in the first quarter next year.
• Having to operate in a depression-like environment forced companies to cut down on costs and increase efficiencies, Paulsen told CNBC.
• "A lot of that boom will fall to the bottom line in a bigger way than people currently expect," Paulsen said. "We could have a big profit recovery."
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The US economy's "depression-like collapse" is setting stocks up for a "wartime boom," according to Jim Paulsen, Leuthold Group's chief investment strategist.

"What we've had in the last couple quarters is a depression-like collapse, and what it's going to be followed immediately by is like a wartime boom in the economy," Paulsen said on CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Wednesday.

Though US gross domestic product declined by a record 33% in the second quarter, economists expect the US economy to see a strong growth comeback next year following its biggest collapse, Paulsen said.

CNBC said that economists surveyed by Moody's Analytics predicted that, on average, US GDP growth would jump by almost 20% this quarter, then by 9.6% in the fourth quarter and by 7.7% in the first quarter.

"That would be one of the strongest growth periods we've ever experienced, and it would come after the biggest collapse we've ever experienced," Paulsen said.

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Going through a depression-like environment "forced companies to just knee-jerk react — to cut everything they could to try to survive this pandemic," he told CNBC. "What that has done is put them in a unique position with incredible profit leverage because they whittled down costs so low and increased efficiencies."

In the case of a wartime boom — a period when pent-up demand translates to increased economic activity — company profitability could see a tremendous boost, Paulsen said.

"A lot of that boom will fall to the bottom line in a bigger way than people currently expect," he said. "We could have a big profit recovery."

That, on top of massive monetary and fiscal support, would benefit the whole stock market, with cyclical stocks leading, Paulsen said — he mentioned industrials, materials, energy, financials, and small caps.

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"I don't know how high this thing can go," Paulsen said, adding that worried investors had left a ton of underinvested stocks waiting for a pullback, or a short-term retreat in the opposite direction.

He said the biggest risk to markets is a COVID-19 resurgence leading to yet another economic shutdown.

"I do like that there's so many worried about that," he said. "There are a ton of portfolios waiting for a pullback, and if that doesn't happen, there's $5 trillion of money market funds that could find their way back into the market next year."

On Thursday, the S&P 500 was less than 1% from a record high. The index closed just below its peaks in the past two trading sessions as investors fluctuated between tech mega-caps and neglected cyclical stocks.

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