Tesla's future is 'brighter than ever' thanks to record demand and new factories, UBS says

• "Tesla's future is brighter than ever," according to analysts from UBS.
• The bank points to Tesla's record-high order backlog, growing margins, and an advantage in critical supply chains.

Tesla's future is "brighter than ever," UBS analysts said in a note to clients on Thursday.

That's thanks to three key reasons that should help Elon Musk's electric automaker rebound after a brutal 38% selloff this year fueled by shutdowns, shortages, and a broader tech slump.

The first piece of the puzzle is record demand for its cars, leading to record backlogs. Indeed, buyers need to wait a year or more to take delivery of some Tesla models.

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The analysis also pointed to Tesla's two new factories in Germany and Texas, which are ramping up production and should roughly double the company's production capacity over time. They expect the new plants and Tesla's pricing will help keep the company's automotive margins above 30% for quarters to come.

Looking forward, they argue that Tesla has an edge over other players when it comes to sourcing critical components like semiconductors and batteries. UBS thinks batteries will be the next "industry-wide bottleneck," and that Tesla will outperform rivals by building cells in-house and maintaining better access to raw materials like lithium.

Elon Musk's "structurally superior" supply chain will allow Tesla to grow faster and more profitably than legacy automakers, UBS says.

Tesla has said it plans to grow sales by around 50% on average year over year, a goal UBS expects it will meet in 2022. Despite lost sales due to the coronavirus lockdown in Shanghai, UBS expects Tesla will deliver 1.4 million vehicles this year.

The bank says Tesla is in a good spot to become one of the top three global automakers by 2030. Today it's the most valuable, but sells millions fewer cars than giants like General Motors, Volkswagen, and Toyota.