The chief strategist at JPMorgan's $1.7 trillion funds arm reveals the 'three most dangerous words in economics' - and explains why they're putting a chokehold on global growth

JPMorgan Asset Management

David Kelly, chief global strategist, JPMorgan Asset Management

• David Kelly, the chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, said the global economy is slowing because businesses are delaying decisions, particularly around manufacturing.
• "'Wait and see' are the three most dangerous words in economics," he said.
• Kelly expects growth to expand at a rate of just 2% this year, down from 3% in 2018.

Businesses are facing no shortage of global uncertainty, and their hesitance is slowing down the economy.

That was the argument made by David Kelly, the chief global strategist at $1.7 trillion JPMorgan Asset Management, at a media event on Wednesday. The economist specifically highlighted how the Trump administration's decisions on tariffs affect companies' manufacturing decisions.

Executives are asking questions like "'Should I build a plant in Peoria or should I build it in Mexico or should I build it in Malaysia?' It depends who we put tariffs on and what they do in retaliation," Kelly said.

The effect of that uncertainty is often inaction.

Sign up here for our weekly newsletter Wall Street Insider, a behind-the-scenes look at the stories dominating banking, business, and big deals.

"What do businesses do? It sounds very prudent, they say 'let's just wait and see,'" Kelly said. "The problem is 'wait and see' are the three most dangerous words in economics. When everyone decides to wait and see, what they see is not good. That's slowing the global economy down."

Kelly's pessimism around the subject is reflected in his forecasts. He expects US economic growth to drop to 2% this year, down from 3% in 2018.

See more: The chief strategist at JPMorgan's $1.7 trillion funds arm says 2 types of investors are sending the market swinging wildly

Kelly isn't alone in his concerns about how tariffs affect the economy. In the Wall Street Journal's December survey of economists, nearly half cited the back-and-forth tariff fight between the US and China as the top threat to the economy in 2019, the highest percentage of any single threat.

In the fall, a survey from lobbying group The Business Roundtable found that nearly two-thirds of CEOs said tariffs and future trade tension would have a negative impact on their capital investment decisions over the next six months.

However, those frustrated with the trade war's impact on growth got a positive signal in late February. That was when President Donald Trump tweeted he would delay the increase in US tariffs originally scheduled for March 1 as the US made "substantial progress" in trade talks with China.

• Read more:
• Trump calls himself 'Tariff Man' during raging tweetstorm on China trade war, and the stock market tanks
• Stock markets are soaring after Trump delays tariffs on Chinese goods
• A JPMorgan heavyweight who advises a $1.7 trillion business explains why investors should look outside the US - and pinpoints the markets they should target
• Investors are struggling to spend the $240 billion poured into private credit funds in the last 2 years. A top JPMorgan exec says these 3 areas still have value