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<ul class="summary-list"><li>David Kostin is seeing similarities to the dot-com bubble as "superstar" firms boost the market.</li><li>Record-high market concentration will lead to a decade of weak returns, the strategist said.</li></ul>David Kostin is no stranger to the ups and downs of the stock market.The Goldman Sachs chief US equity strategist has seen multiple economic boom-bust cycles during his more than 35 years on Wall Street. And right now, Kostin sees two striking similarities between today's market and the dot-com bubble — conditions that could lead to a decade of lackluster returns for the S&amp;P 500 just as they did after 2000, he told Business Insider in an exclusive interview.First, market concentration is at an all-time high, meaning that the performance of the S&amp;P 500 is disproportionately driven by just a few stocks. This is due to the rise of what Kostin calls "superstar" firms with economies of scale, such as the Big Tech companies whose valuations have spiked this year thanks to the development of AI.Today, the 10 largest stocks in the S&amp;P 500 make up 36% of the entire index by market capitalization."We're at a level of concentration in the US market today that we haven't really seen since the tech bubble. It's even more concentrated than it was 20 years ago," Kostin said.In fact, the US equity market is at its highest concentration in 100 years.<div type="image" title="Goldman Sachs US equity market concentration" height="642" width="689" msid="114979384" hostid="261" sizebytes="44834"></div>Risks become less diversified, and volatility increases in a concentrated market, which is why Kostin is skeptical that the largest companies in the index will maintain their premium valuations going forward.Second, Kostin sees a large valuation gap between the top 10 stocks and the rest of the index.The largest 10 stocks in the index trade with a median price-to-earnings ratio of 31. Meanwhile, the other 490 stocks have a median P/E ratio of just 19.<div type="image" title="Goldman Sachs chart showing 10 largest stocks trading at 31x P/E compared to 19x for the rest of the market." height="730" width="882" msid="114979385" hostid="261" sizebytes="38416"></div>That means for the top stocks, the earnings yield — a metric measuring the expected return on investment, calculated by taking the inverse of the P/E ratio — is lower compared to the rest of the market. A stock with a P/E ratio of 31 has an earnings yield of 3.22%, meaning that every dollar invested in the stock would generate earnings per share of 3.2 cents. A stock with P/E ratio of 19 has an earnings yield of 5.26%, meaning that investors are receiving more earnings for every dollar they put in.This gap between the top S&amp;P 500 performers and the rest of the index hasn't occurred since the dot-com bubble."The valuation of the largest stocks in the market have a negative risk premium to bonds, and that has not happened for 20 years," Kostin added.That means the top 10 stocks in the index actually have a negative return in excess of the risk-free <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/bonds">10-year Treasury</a> yields. The 10-year has a nominal yield of 4.28% compared to the top 10's 3.22%, which is approximately a 1% negative risk premium.<h2 id="3daaf9d0-47d8-48dc-b7f5-64d833e2a83c">The next decade</h2>The ultra-high concentrations in the market today happened over several years, so Kostin isn't expecting the market to broaden overnight. But the current disjunction simply isn't sustainable for the long term, he said. Higher concentration is typically associated with increased volatility in the near term and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-why-sp500-decade-weak-returns-goldman-jpmorgan-2024-11">lower returns</a> over long time horizons.That's why Kostin predicts that the S&amp;P 500 will generate a 3% annualized nominal total return through 2034 — well below the index's long-term average of 11%."The S&amp;P 500 has roughly a 72% probability of trailing bonds and a 33% likelihood of lagging inflation through 2034," Kostin and his team wrote in a recent note.<div type="image" title="Goldman Sachs is predicting a decade of low returns." height="442" width="701" msid="114979383" hostid="261" sizebytes="27106"></div>Superstar firms propelled the S&amp;P 500 to new highs in 2024, but maintaining that level of growth in the future will be difficult, especially when valuations are already so elevated, according to Kostin."The expectation of revenue growth for these companies is 20%, and the stocks trade at high multiples reflecting that growth rate. So the risk is ultimately, can the companies deliver on these extremely high levels?" Kostin said. "The evidence is strongly in support of the fact that growth rates for high revenue growth companies tend to fade," he added.Today's valuations price in double-digit growth, but that's not a realistic outcome, in Kostin's view. When sales and earnings growth for the biggest companies eventually cool, these valuations will come down, and the overall index will decelerate as well.Kostin pointed to companies like Intel, Microsoft, and Cisco, which saw incredible runups as investors priced in aggressive revenue expectations during the dot-com heyday. When these companies failed to meet these lofty expectations, valuation multiples compressed significantly.Although Kostin is predicting a decade of lower-than-average growth for the S&amp;P 500, he's still optimistic about the overall state of the economy as the unemployment rate is holding steady at 4.1% and the US consumer is strong.While the overall market is shaping up to see lower-than-expected returns for the next decade, that doesn't mean there aren't pockets of opportunity for investors to seek <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-beat-stock-market-returns-next-decade-goldman-sachs-2024-10">higher returns</a>. As the gap between the largest stocks and the rest of the market subsides going forward, the typical stock is positioned to perform better than the current market leaders.For that reason, Kostin is expecting the S&amp;P 500 equal-weight SPW index to outperform the market-cap-weighted S&amp;P 500.Kostin also identified mid-cap stocks as a big beneficiary of a broadening market. In his view, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/next-big-stocks-to-buy-unflashy-mid-caps-investing-parnassus-2024-10">mid-cap stocks</a> are much more reasonably valued than the overall S&amp;P 500 and have historically performed well in a rate-cutting environment, making them a compelling investment opportunity.

Goldman's top equity strategist tells BI 2 similarities between today's market and the dot-com bubble — and what it means for your portfolio

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been rapidly exiting Indian markets, and this high-speed exodus does not look like it will stop anytime soon. In October 2024, FIIs withdrew Rs 1,14,445.89 crores from Indian markets. Yesterday, FIIs withdrew $770.67 million from the markets, with equity outflows of $440.86 million and debt outflows standing at $327.44 million across various categories. Per NSDL data, hybrid outflows amounted to $2.31 million. While this may sound dissuading at first, a recent SBI report underlined that FIIs still hold a massive $ 18.241 billion in Indian markets. So far, FY25 has seen FII inflows worth $ 8.924 billion. However, the situation may quickly turn alarming as well, given that FII holdings in Indian equities have already come down to a 12-year low. Says Anirudh Garg, Partner and Fund Manager at Invasset PMS, "The current valuation of Indian stocks, trading at around 24 times expected earnings, appears high compared to Chinese stocks, which are at approximately 10 times. Economic concerns, including weak corporate earnings and declining consumer demand, further exacerbate this situation. Additionally, renewed fears of inflation and potential monetary tightening by central banks have led FIIs to withdraw from the Indian market." In the meantime, DIIs (domestic institutional investors) are stepping in big time. During October 2024, DIIs infused Rs 1,07,254.68 crore in Indian markets. In November so far, DIIs have been keeping the fund momentum going, infusing Rs 12,265.74 crore in India, while FIIs have offloaded Rs 16,445.49 crore this month. But despite this strong uptick, SBI's recent report suggests that consumer confidence in India remains below 100, signaling muted positivity and optimism in the economy. While household consumption is gradually recovering, it grew at 4% last year, much below the 7% levels recorded pre-pandemic. <h2>FII share in <keyword id="20868945" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NSE-listed-companies" source="keywords">NSE-listed companies</keyword> takes a dip, DII stake rise </h2>FIIs share in NSE-listed companies stood at 15.98% in October, with assets under their custody in the equity segment coming to Rs 71.08 lakh crore last month. In September, this stood at Rs 77.96 crore. Experts suggest that this is likely to continue for some time to come. Mutual funds, on the other hand, saw their share in NSE-listed companies hit a record high of 9.58%, as opposed to their 9.32% stake in September 2024. FIIs turned net sellers in the debt segment as well in October, dumping $771 million in Indian markets. This comes after 2 consecutive months of healthy inflows in this segment in August and September 2024, where the figures stood at $2,806 million and $2,295 million, respectively.

FII stake in Indian equities dips to a 12-year low

<keyword id="24068881" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Equity-investments-in-Indian-real-estate" source="keywords">Equity investments in Indian real estate</keyword> may rise 49% to $11 billion this calendar year amid strong demand for properties, according to CII and CBRE. In the 2023 calendar year, the equity investments in real estate stood at $7.4 billion. Industry body CII and real estate consultant CBRE on Wednesday released a joint report titled 'Leading the Charge: Crafting the Skylines of Tomorrow' at the annual CII Realty 2024 conclave. Equity capital inflows touched $8.9 billion between January and September, registering a 46% year-on-year growth. "Overall equity investments in 2024 in the real estate sector are set to hit a new record surpassing $10 billion for the first time," the report said. With a resurgence in investment inflows in built-up office assets and a strong acquisition pipeline for land in the residential sector, the overall equity investments in 2024 would be in the $10-11 billion range. During January-September, institutional and collective vehicle investors accounted for nearly 40% of the overall investments. Developer companies led the total capital inflows with more than 41% share in this period. Domestic investors (predominantly developers) invested nearly USD 6 billion during the first nine months of the calendar year, dominating the overall capital inflows with an almost 65% share. In comparison, foreign investors contributed about $3.1 billion during the same timeframe. Notably, North American and Singaporean investors were the significant contributors, representing about 85% of all foreign capital inflows. Anshuman Magazine, Chairman &amp; CEO, India, South-East Asia, Middle East &amp; Africa, CBRE, said, "Projection for 2024 equity investments between $10-11 billion, highest-ever, underscores continued investor interest in the growing <keyword id="23870227" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="real-estate-market-in-India" source="keywords">real estate market in India</keyword>." With SEBI's SM-REIT framework, he said, smaller but high-quality assets in Tier-II markets would also present new avenues for strategic capital deployment. "We believe this regulatory support will add much-needed transparency, enabling a more diversified investment base and encouraging institutional participation across these markets," Magazine said. Going ahead, he said this growing diversification will not only solidify India's real estate sector but also pave the way for future growth across emerging asset classes.

Equity investments in Indian real estate may rise 49% to record $11 billion this year, says CII-CBRE report

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Goldman's top equity strategist tells BI 2 similarities between today's market and the dot-com bubble — and what it means for your portfolio

Christine Ji

FII stake in Indian equities dips to a 12-year low

Ira Alok Puranik

Equity investments in Indian real estate may rise 49% to record $11 billion this year, says CII-CBRE report

PTI

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