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Economists at the country's largest lender, SBI, today said they see India's Q2 real GDP growth slowing down further to 6.5% in the September quarter of this fiscal year. Amid concerns over the country's economic growth rate and whether it is slowing down, the analysts said they expect FY25 growth to come "closer to" 7%. SBI analysts join a long line of agencies like Fitch, ADB, IMF, Moody, World Bank, S&amp;P, and even RBI in forecasting India's GDP growth for FY25 in the range of 6.8% to 7.2% for FY25, driven by robust consumption and investment. SIP inflows have been at an all-time high, and so has QIP (qualified institutional placement) fundraising. As many as 71 companies raised Rs 88,678 crore this year through QIPs. Activity in Indian primary markets also remained robust, with 78 mainboard IPOs in 2024; this is a 111% rise from just 38 listings in FY23. Between April and June 2024, India's real GDP grew by 6.7%, the lowest growth seen in 15 quarters, pushing experts to believe that India is caught in a cycle of slowdown. "There is some incipient pressure evident on the domestic economy. Based on our analysis of 50 meaningful leading indicators (both consumption and demand-centric), a dip looks plausible across select cohorts of agriculture, industry, and services in Q2," the <keyword id="22337294" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI-economists" source="keywords">SBI economists</keyword> added. Stating that they track 50 indicators to gauge economic activity, SBIs note said the proportion of indicators showing acceleration declined to 69% in Q2 FY25, as against 80% in Q2 FY24 and 78% in Q1 FY25. However, things might be changing now, given that rural demand has started looking up amidst muted urban demand. SBI also explained that the ongoing regulatory tightening on unsecured lending and roadblocks that are hindering rollover/refinancing of debt through unsecured credit are dismantling the unwarranted exuberance that had built up post-pandemic, especially in the urban areas. Madhu Lunawat, CIO &amp; Fund Manager, Bharat Value Fund states that the overall investment environment remains strong due to favorable economic conditions supporting government policies &amp; reforms. "The sustainable inflow from domestic investors is going to support the Indian equity market in any kind of correction. The long-term bullish structure of Indian economy will continue to attract new domestic &amp; global investors to participate in India’s growth story through various Investment avenues.” <h2>Rate cuts not on cards</h2>RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das clarified today that changing the monetary policy stance to 'neutral' does not mean a rate cut is imminent in the central bank's next policy announcement. Notably, RBI MPC is set to meet between December 4 and 6, 2024, to decide if the prevailing repo rate of 6.5%, which has stayed unchanged for the last 2 years, should be brought down or not. In its last meeting, The <keyword id="20501100" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-monetary-policy" source="keywords">RBI monetary policy</keyword> committee had shifted its stance to 'neutral' indicating that it is open to adjusting interest rates based on economic conditions. "It should not be assumed that we have done this, so therefore the next step is a rate cut. A change in stance doesn't mean that the next step is a rate cut in the very next meeting. It's not so," Das said. Das also cautioned that inflation remains a key factor, and inflation and CPI prints for October are expected to stay high.

SBI economists see Q2 GDP growth slowing down to 6.5%; FY25 growth to be closer to 7%

In FY25, Punjab is set to experience financial challenges as its capital-to-revenue expenditure ratio is the lowest among all states, standing at just 6.2%, highlighted a research report by the <keyword id="19938957" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="National-Stock-Exchange" source="keywords">National Stock Exchange</keyword> (NSE). This means that for every rupee Punjab spends, a very small portion is being allocated towards capital expenditure, which is crucial for long-term <keyword id="19971350" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="infrastructure-development" source="keywords">infrastructure development</keyword>. In contrast, the research showed that the states like Gujarat lead the way with a much higher ratio of 36.2%, signaling a stronger focus on capital spending that can drive future growth. "The capital-to-revenue expenditure ratio, a measure of expenditure quality, is set at 20.7 % for FY25BE, declining from 21.2 % in FY24RE. Punjab has the lowest ratio at 6.2 %, while Gujarat leads at 36.2 %" said the report. The report also highlighted that the overall, capital expenditure by Indian states is expected to moderate in FY25 after three years of strong growth. It stated that the total capital spending for the fiscal year is estimated to increase by just 6.5 % to Rs 6.5 lakh crore. This is a notable slowdown compared to the sharp 39.3 % rise in FY24, which was marked by a post-pandemic push to boost infrastructure and public projects. The capital-to-revenue expenditure ratio, a key indicator of the quality of spending, is also set to decline slightly to 20.7 %in FY25 from 21.2 %in FY24, reflecting a more cautious approach by states. At the same time, revenue expenditure, which covers recurring costs like salaries, subsidies, and interest payments, is expected to grow by 8.9 % to Rs 44.2 lakh crore. This is the slowest growth in the last four years, indicating tighter control over everyday spending. "<keyword id="23614983" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="committed-expenditure" source="keywords">Committed expenditure</keyword> (interest payments and pensions), on the other hand, remains high, comprising about 24 % of total revenue expenditure and consuming nearly a quarter of revenue receipts" the report added. Despite this, the report noted that a large portion of revenue expenditure remains committed to non-discretionary costs. Interest payments and pensions alone account for about 24 % of total revenue expenditure and consume nearly a quarter of the revenue receipts, limiting states' flexibility in spending. Some states are more burdened than others by this committed expenditure. Punjab, Kerala, Himachal Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu have earmarked over 35 %of their revenue receipts for these fixed costs in FY25, putting additional pressure on their finances. This leaves less room for discretionary spending and makes it harder for these states to invest in development and growth-oriented projects.

Punjab's capital expenditure lowest in FY25 at 6.2% vs highest of Gujarat at 36.2%: NSE

<ul><li>The sale of cars declined in Q2 as per <keyword id="22385027" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SIAM-data" source="keywords">SIAM data</keyword>.</li><li>Good carriers and <keyword id="22337322" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="light-commercial-vehicles" source="keywords">light commercial vehicles</keyword> also reported a decline in Q2.</li><li>Two-wheeler sales continued to grow, with both scooters and motorcycles reporting growth.</li></ul>Sales of cars in the country saw a significant decline in the second quarter of FY25, as highlighted by the latest sales data released by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) on Monday. The slowdown in sales was not limited to passenger cars alone. There has also been a decline in sales of <keyword id="23540336" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="goods-carriers" source="keywords">goods carriers</keyword>, which dropped by 15.8% during the same period. In the second quarter of this year, 69,514 goods carriers were sold, down from 82,538 units in the corresponding period last year. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="113925972" title="September Auto sales – Automakers report a decline, Mahindra and Mahindra overtakes Tata Motors" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div> Light commercial vehicles (LCVs) also experienced a notable dip in sales. The segment saw a decline of 10.2% in the second quarter of FY25 compared to the previous year. Between July and September 2024, 1,26,370 light commercial vehicles were sold, compared to 1,53,927 units in the same period last year. This drop across different segments of the auto industry reflects the challenges the sector faces during the current fiscal year. Two-wheeler sales showed a more positive trend. Scooter sales recorded a growth of 16.9% in the second quarter, with a total of 18.32 lakh units sold compared to 15.67 lakh units in the same period last year. Motorcycle sales also increased by 10.2%, reaching 32.09 lakh units compared to 29.13 lakh units in the year-ago quarter. On the other hand, the electric rickshaw (E-rickshaw) segment saw a sharp decline in sales. E-rickshaw sales dropped by 30.7% in the second quarter, with only 7,227 units sold compared to 10,430 units in the same quarter last year. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/hyundai-ipo-review-everything-you-need-to-know-about-indias-biggest-ipo/articleshow/114203740.cms">Hyundai IPO review – Everything you need to know about India’s biggest IPO</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/the-ola-electric-saga-are-surge-in-complaints-and-declining-market-share-a-wake-up-call-for-bhavish-aggarwal/articleshow/114120828.cms">The Ola Electric Saga: Are surge in complaints and declining market share a wake-up call for Bhavish Aggarwal?</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/iphone-16-series-allows-users-to-wirelessly-restore-the-firmware-using-an-iphone-or-ipad/articleshow/113455048.cms">iPhone 16 series allows users to wirelessly restore the firmware using an iPhone or iPad</a>

Substantial drop in sales of cars, goods carriers and light commercial vehicles in Q2: SIAM

New Delhi: As the earnings season for the second quarter of FY25 unfolds, <keyword id="19959986" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="public-sector-banks" source="keywords">public sector banks</keyword> (PSBs) are expected to see a slight dip in profits compared to the previous quarter, according to a report by <keyword id="19896146" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Motilal-Oswal" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Motilal Oswal" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Motilal Oswal">Motilal Oswal</keyword>. The report estimates that PSBs' Profit After Tax (PAT) will decline by 0.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), while showing a stronger year-on-year (YoY) growth of 17.2 per cent. "We estimate PSBs to report moderate <keyword id="19899597" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="earnings-growth" source="keywords">earnings growth</keyword> of 17.2 pc YoY/ a decline of 0.6 pc QoQ in 2QFY25," the report stated. The slower pace of growth can be attributed to flat net interest margins (NIMs) and a slight increase in loan loss provisions (LLP). The <keyword id="20171160" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Net-Interest-Income" source="keywords">Net Interest Income</keyword> (NII) for PSBs is expected to grow by around 6 per cent YoY, although interest margins are likely to remain under pressure. Despite these near-term challenges, the report suggests that public sector banks are on track to post a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15 per cent between FY24 and FY26, pointing to sustained long-term growth. In the private sector banking space, the report forecasts mixed results for the same quarter. For private banks under the coverage, Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPoP) is expected to grow by 12 per cent YoY and 1 per cent QoQ. However, PAT growth is predicted to be more modest, increasing by 5 per cent YoY and 0.6 per cent QoQ. "For our private bank coverage universe, we estimate a PPoP growth of 12 pc YoY/1 pc QoQ and a PAT growth of 5 pc YoY/0.6 pc QoQ in 2QFY25," the report added. Looking ahead, private sector banks are expected to experience steady profitability growth, with earnings projected to grow at a CAGR of 12.4 per cent over FY24-FY26. Overall, while both public and private sector banks may face moderate growth in the second quarter due to margin pressures and higher provisions, their long-term earnings prospects remain positive. (ANI)

Profit of public sector banks expected to decline by 0.6 percent QoQ : Motilala Oswal

A day before the official release of India's Gross Domestic Product (<keyword id="35050" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP" source="Orion">GDP</keyword>) figures for <keyword id="21593310" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Q1-FY25" source="keywords">Q1 FY25</keyword>, a report by <keyword id="20548750" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Anand-Rathi" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Anand Rathi" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Anand Rathi">Anand Rathi</keyword> research estimates the GDP to grow by 7 per cent, primarily driven by the robust performance of the services sector. The financial advisory firm also maintains its full-year <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> projection at 7 per cent, though it warns of potential downside risks. Utilities GVA is expected to rise by 11.5 per cent, while the construction sector has slowed due to election-related disruptions and the impact of heat. The mining sector remains strong, supported by increased coal production. The services sector is expected to be the primary driver of GDP growth in Q1 FY25. Despite reduced <keyword id="20155204" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="government-spending" source="keywords">government spending</keyword> ahead of the elections, which is likely to dampen growth in some service sectors, financial, real estate, and professional services are expected to have performed well. This performance is attributed to strong market activity and credit growth. However, the trade and transport sectors present a mixed picture, with some indicators showing improvement while others remain moderate. Overall, Services Gross Value Added (GVA) is expected to grow by 8.2 per cent in Q1 FY25. As per the report, Investment was a key growth driver in FY24, fuelled by government infrastructure projects and a real estate upswing. However, the momentum appears to have slowed in Q1 FY25 due to pre-election restrictions. Despite this, the report predicts a significant rise in government capital expenditure in the coming months, supported by greater budget allocations. The report highlights the changing dynamics of private consumption in India. FY24 saw weak consumption, especially in rural areas, with final consumption expenditure growing by just 3.8 per cent. However, as FY25 begins, there are signs of a rural revival. Indicators such as increased two-wheeler sales and improving Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) volume growth signal a rebound in rural demand. In contrast, urban demand continues to show signs of sluggishness. The muted sales of passenger vehicles, weaker retail credit transfers, and flat Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections underscore this trend. While consumption is not expected to see a significant rise in Q1 FY25, the outlook for the remainder of the year appears positive. This optimism is bolstered by anticipated higher agricultural output and sharper government focus on rural areas. The agriculture sector is expected to post a subdued growth of 2.1 per cent in Q1 FY25, affected by scorching heat and uneven rainfall last year, which led to lower reservoir levels and hindered farming activities. However, the outlook is more promising for the remainder of the fiscal year, with better rains and improved sowing conditions expected to boost agricultural output Additionally, a rebound in stamp duty collections suggests buoyant real estate sales. Private capital expenditure, which was previously subdued, is expected to expand in FY25, driven by rising capacity utilisation and strong order books. The industrial sector, which grew by 9.5 per cent in FY24, is expected to see a shift in growth drivers in Q1 FY25. The focus is now moving towards utilities and mining, with manufacturing growth slowing. While government infrastructure projects and private capital expenditure will continue to support industrial growth, the global growth slowdown poses potential risks.

Anand Rathi anticipates Q1 FY25 GDP growth at 7%, a little lower than RBI's estimate of 7.1%

New Delhi: Steel companies in the country are likely to face margin pressure in the third quarter of FY25 as muted steel prices compress spreads, according to a report by Axis Securities. The report stated that the weak demand in China and higher exports from the country have been identified as key factors behind the decline in steel prices. The report highlighted that <keyword id="24048830" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Chinese-steel-exports" source="keywords">Chinese steel exports</keyword> reached 92 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) between January and October 2024, marking a 22 per cent year-on-year increase. This has led to an oversupply in the global market, weighing down prices domestically. It said "Weak Chinese domestic demand along with higher Chinese exports has led to a decline in steel prices in India. Chinese steel exports from Jan'24 to Oct'24 stood at 92 MTPA, up 22 per cent YoY" In India, the average price of hot-rolled coil (HRC) steel in the trader's market in Mumbai fell by 8 per cent year-on-year and 6 per cent quarter-on-quarter to Rs 51,802 per tonne in the second quarter of FY25. Spot prices have further declined to Rs 49,000 per tonne, 5 per cent lower than the Q2FY25 average. The report also noted some signs of recovery in China's residential property sector, with increased transactions in major cities following policy measures aimed at boosting demand. However, challenges remain, as the three-month moving average of year-to-date floor space declined by 19 per cent year-on-year in September 2024, remaining in negative territory. It said "China's residential property sector is showing some signs of improvement with the transactions in major cities rising after recent policy measures introduced to boost demand". On the global front, the report noted that the probability of a 25-basis point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in its December 2024 meeting has fallen to 58.9 per cent, down from 76.8 per cent in October 2024, owing to strong economic data from the US. Additionally, China has removed a 13 per cent export rebate on aluminum and copper, effective December 1, 2024, in response to anticipated tariff measures by the new US administration. These developments highlight the ongoing challenges and potential shifts in the global and domestic steel and metals markets.

Falling steel prices amid Chinese export surge, to reduce profits of companies in Q3 FY25: Report

India's GDP growth is projected at 7.2 per cent in 2024-25, around 7 per cent in the next fiscal, and after that, there is a strong likelihood that the growth will revert to the 8 per cent trend, said <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> deputy governor <keyword id="20244361" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Michael-Debabrata-Patra" source="keywords">Michael Debabrata Patra</keyword>. He was speaking at the New York Fed Central Banking Seminar organised by the <keyword id="20238413" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Federal-Reserve-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Federal Reserve Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Federal Reserve Bank">Federal Reserve Bank</keyword> here on Monday. "...I do believe with all the strength of my conviction that India's time has come," he said, and highlighted the country heads into its future with the youngest population in the world with a median age of 28 years. Unlike in many parts of the world, the working age population is growing -- every sixth working age person is an Indian. Patra said that since independence in 1947, India's growth path has undergone three structural shifts with trend growth, having risen to 7 per cent during 2002-2019. After the severe contraction during the pandemic, a new growth trajectory averaging 8 per cent seems to be forming during 2021-24, he said. India is now regarded as the fastest growing major economy in the world. Already the fifth largest economy in terms of market exchange rates, it is poised to become the third largest economy by 2030, the senior RBI official said and added the country is already the third largest economy in terms of <keyword id="20776921" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="purchasing-power-parity" source="keywords">purchasing power parity</keyword>. "Our projections show that India's <keyword id="21013593" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="real-GDP-growth" source="keywords">real GDP growth</keyword> will be 7.2 per cent in 2024-25 and around 7.0 per cent in 2025-26 in a cyclical correction to the rebound from the pandemic. Thereafter, there is a strong likelihood that India's growth will revert to the 8 per cent trend," Patra said. On inflation, he said it is projected to average 4.5 per cent in 2024-25 and 4.1 per cent in 2025-26. Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation fell below target during July-August but rose to 5.5 per cent in September on the back of a pickup in price momentum in some food items and adverse base effects inherent in year-on-year measurement. "Our projection indicates that these price pressures will persist in October and November before headline inflation realigns with the target from December 2024 and remains aligned in 2025-26," the deputy governor said. He also emphasised that India is emerging as a world leader in leveraging <keyword id="20181895" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="digital-technologies" source="keywords">digital technologies</keyword> for transformative change.

You Searched For "FY25" and got 7 results

SBI economists see Q2 GDP growth slowing down to 6.5%; FY25 growth to be closer to 7%

BI India Bureau

Punjab's capital expenditure lowest in FY25 at 6.2% vs highest of Gujarat at 36.2%: NSE

ANI

Substantial drop in sales of cars, goods carriers and light commercial vehicles in Q2: SIAM

BI India Bureau

Profit of public sector banks expected to decline by 0.6 percent QoQ : Motilala Oswal

ANI

Anand Rathi anticipates Q1 FY25 GDP growth at 7%, a little lower than RBI's estimate of 7.1%

ANI

Falling steel prices amid Chinese export surge, to reduce profits of companies in Q3 FY25: Report

ANI

India likely to grow at 7.2% in FY25, says RBI deputy governor

PTI

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