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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Some expat Indians are moving back home to launch companies of their own.</li><li>India's booming market size, internet growth, and post-pandemic spending is driving their decision.</li></ul>Nithin Hassan, 41, has always been fascinated with building something of his own.As a child in India, he would get in trouble for dismantling electronics around the house just so he could peek inside.In college, in true <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/startups-to-bet-your-career-on-in-2024-2024-2">startup</a> fashion, he started working on a small business out of his parent's garage in Bengaluru, assembling computers for friends and family.It was the early 2000s and the internet was not the trove of knowledge it is today — Hassan was relying on books to learn. Finding mentorship and the right guidance was a challenge, too.Everyone around Hassan told him that going to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/resume-tips-google-software-engineer-skills-experience-careers-software-tech-2024-3">US for a master's degree</a> was the next big opportunity. So he did.Over the next 16 years, he put his startup plans on hold and worked at some of the world's biggest companies, including Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta.<div type="image" title="Nithin Hassan" height="2450" width="3266" msid="113831978" hostid="261" sizebytes="215682"></div>But the pandemic felt like a turning point. And its aftermath made India look like a lab-designed business environment: It had just become the world's most populous country, the pandemic had created <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/private-consumption-continues-to-be-supported-by-pent-up-demand-finance-ministry/articleshow/99069973.cms?from=mdr">pent-up demand</a> for consumer products, and growing internet adoption made commerce more scalable, he said.So Hassan left behind about $500,000 in annual pay at Meta to move back to Bengaluru in December 2023 with his wife and two children. He has since launched two startups.Hassan is part of a group of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/i-moved-back-to-india-after-living-abroad-for-decade-2024-9">expat Indians moving back</a> home to venture out on their own. As such, he's also part of a decades-long trend of reverse migration back to India.The trend began in the 1990s and picked up at the turn of the century, driven by the economic collapse in 2008, said Binod Khadria, the president of Global Research Forum on Diaspora and Transnationalism. Many of those who returned to India for work were largely working for multinational companies.Today, the impetus for the move often looks a bit different: It's driven by factors like unstable visa policies and economic recessions, which lead to uncertainty when it comes to jobs and duration of stay in these destinations.Many returnees find work in tech, but the finance, retail, and climate sectors also absorb a large number of expat Indians, Khadia said. And some of the returnees are heading back to India to start companies of their own.India is undergoing a startup explosion. The country reported over<a target="_blank" href="https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=2043805"> 140,800 recognized startups</a> at the end of June — nearly 50,000 more than last year — and credited them with creating 1.6 million direct jobs.To be sure, not all of these companies will make it big — and some do still stumble, like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://inc42.com/features/what-are-the-current-problems-being-faced-by-oyo/">Oyo </a>and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/blackrock-hsbc-funds-byjus-startup-valuation-zero-edtech-india-raveendran-2024-6">Byju's</a>. But the chaos, where even established startups are trying and failing, makes India a fair playing field for new entrants, Hassan said.Business Insider spoke to six <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-vc-wants-see-5-traits-new-founders-fundraising-antler-2024-8">first-time founders </a>about why they have recently returned to India after spending several years, or even an adult life, abroad.<h2 id="0e4a3c47-ba19-4690-8b52-c6bfece1c81d">Fastest-growing economy</h2>The health of the economy and interest from investors are fueling the entrepreneurship boom.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-billionaire-karan-adani-plans-challenge-china-dominance-seaports-2024-8">India's economic growth</a> in 2023 — 8.2% — was the fastest of all large economies worldwide. That's led to greater purchasing power, which lets companies, including startups, sell more.India's inflation rate of about 3.5% is well below its annual wage growth of 9.6%. This makes inflation less of a challenge than it is for slower-growing peers, where consumer-focused businesses have been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-jobs-report-sentiment-consumers-elections-recession-inflation-mortgage-rates-2024-9">hurt by high prices</a>.Investors are getting in on the action.From 2015 to 2021, the number of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sequoia-capital-vc-firm-split-china-india-2023-6">unique investors in India</a> nearly quadrupled, though the number is tracking much lower this year, per PitchBook."Other than a slight downturn in 2022 and 2023 due to global macroeconomic factors, VC funding has been consistently growing in India," said Ben Mathias, a managing partner at Vertex Ventures Southeast Asia &amp; India.Besides funding, domestic developments have encouraged founders and VCs too, Mathias said.The Indian government's Universal Payment Interface system has spurred consumers and businesses to pay online, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bcg.com/press/2june2022-digital-payments-in-india-projected-to-reach-10-trillion-by-2026">40% of all digital payments</a> globally happen in India today, the partner said.Programs like Startup India, which provides founders benefits like tax exemption, easier compliance, and funding support, have made creating a company smoother.Devyani Parameshwar worked in the microfinance and fintech space in India in the 2010s before heading to the UK and Africa. She returned to India in 2022 to launch a financial management venture."It's changed dramatically. I remember standing in line at various ministries in Delhi trying to get meetings and then trying to get answers and it wasn't easy in the past," she said of her memories of India.Now, she can use an online platform to ask the country's central bank and banking regulator questions.It's easier than ever for foreign companies to invest in India, which means startups have a clearer exit path through acquisition — something VCs think hard about before entering new markets or writing checks.<h2 id="e5dd7b6f-a09f-4ff2-84c1-5907de96dc5e">Market ripe for the taking</h2>For Rohan Bhide, who spent most of his college and professional life <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/worked-in-big-tech-before-launching-my-own-startup-engineer-2024-9">preparing to launch something of his own</a>, a trip home in 2017 while he was studying in the US was a turning point.Indian telecom giant Reliance had recently launched a cheap unlimited data plan, which spiked Indian internet adoption. India was charting among the countries with the highest online transactions."That really, really drew my attention," said Bhide, who worked at Meta after graduation. "It was my dream come true — a huge market, a huge user base, and at the same time, the ability to adopt technology was incredible."Bhide returned to India in January, leaving behind about $580,000 in total compensation at ticketing platform StubHub. He and a cofounder are working on launching a consumer tech product later this year.<div type="image" title="Rohan Bhide" height="2304" width="3072" msid="113831979" hostid="261" sizebytes="218468"></div>Most Indians grew up wanting to work at a multinational company — but that's changing, Bhide said.Freelancing, running your own business, or working for a startup is much more socially acceptable now, because people see the success of other Indian startups. The country has the third-largest number of "unicorns" — companies worth $1 billion or more — with 64, per PitchBook.<h2 id="7f423804-745b-4e04-a250-839e01663f09">Boom in entrepreneurship culture</h2>A lot has changed since Hassan first wanted to launch his hardware startup in the early 2000s.Tech hot spots like Bengaluru and Gurugram have seen a boom in entrepreneurship culture in the last few years, with meet-ups, networking mixers, and even morning walks with like-minded builders.<div type="image" title="man standing in front of mountains in USA" height="2268" width="3024" msid="113831980" hostid="261" sizebytes="141132"></div>Dhruv Anand, who left Google in the US to move back to India in 2021 to launch an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-startups-most-promising-2024-9">AI startup</a>, said that there were lots of other founders and mentors to help guide him."If you want to figure out who's the right chartered accountant to talk to, who's the right lawyer to help you draft agreements, all of that stuff is very easy," Anand said."It's been a really, really supportive community," Bhide said. There are people "telling you about their entire lives just because they want to help you and they're hoping that you pass the favor onto the next person who moves to India and wants to start their own company."<h2 id="3c8bff36-e855-4530-9b44-bcc7f36b0825">Not everything is perfect</h2>Although these founders made the decision to return to India, that doesn't mean they no longer see the benefits of operating in the US.Ruchit Garg founded an agriculture startup in Silicon Valley in 2016, with a focus on supporting farmers around the globe. In 2019, he returned to India, where his late grandfather worked as a farmer.Garg has been building in India ever since, but he says its startup ecosystem cannot yet compete with the Valley's decades of experience."The overall ecosystem was more mature back in Silicon Valley. It's still one of the best places for entrepreneurs. India isn't there yet, although it's growing pretty drastically," he said.Despite efforts to digitalize key processes, many bureaucratic challenges persist.For most founders, after living in US cities where populations are a fraction of those in Mumbai and Bangalore, congested roads and poorer air quality are also everyday annoyances.But India provides some big perks, including affordable domestic help and the appeal of building solutions for problems they witness firsthand."It's a different joy to be able to build for problems that you feel for very personally," Parameshwar, the fintech founder, said. When she worked in Africa, she needed translators. Now, she can speak with her users herself.Bhide said the general sentiment among local founders is shifting from "Build from India" to "Build for India."For some founders, being surrounded by family and the culture they grew up in was another selling point.Niranjan Vemulkar moved back to India in 2015 and later founded a digital legacy planning platform.He said that he never fully felt at home in the US, where he lived for over a decade."For us, it was the fact that we wanted to raise a family in an environment where the children would have access to the grandparents and Indian culture," Vemulkar said. "The fact that you could come back to India, start something of your own and figure things out in an ecosystem which was potentially booming for startups, was just a cherry on the cake."Are you in India and have a story to share about the tech and entrepreneurship landscape? Please reach out at shubhangigoel@insider.com

Some techies are leaving cushy Silicon Valley jobs to launch startups at home in India

Corporate <keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword> is indicating cautious <keyword id="6357342" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="hiring" source="Orion">hiring</keyword> in the March quarter of 2023 as concerns rise over the possible <keyword id="6357558" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="recession" source="Orion">recession</keyword> and steady inflation, a survey said on Thursday. According to the ManpowerGroup Employment <keyword id="23268" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="outlook" source="Orion">Outlook</keyword> Survey, based on interviews with nearly 3,030 public and private employers, hiring intentions will decrease in the quarter both on a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter basis. During the quarter, 48 per cent employers expect to increase their staffing levels, 16 per cent anticipate a decrease in hiring intent and 34 per cent do not anticipate any change in hiring, resulting in a net employment outlook of 32 per cent. When compared to the same period last year (January-March 2022), hiring sentiments have weakened by 17 percentage points and by 22 percentage points when compared to the previous quarter. "Employers are cautious due to the impending recession and deepening global slowdown which also created a stir in the IT sector during the previous quarter," Sandeep Gulati, Managing Director, <keyword id="12093048" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="manpowergroup-india" source="Orion">ManpowerGroup India</keyword> said. Citing reports, Gulati said 33 per cent of Indian CEOs have implemented a hiring freeze. "India may be impacted in the short term but in a country with the GDP net growth of 7 per cent, the market is expected to see a balanced approach with growth in the tech sector and startups," he said. "Consolidation of smaller startups dovetailing into the larger ones coupled with a measured approach to funding is expected to be the flavour driving the economy in 2023," he said, adding that "with India all set to host the G20 leaders' summit for the first time, we expect a lot to change in the employment-related scenario in the course of the year." As per the survey, hiring prospects have weakened in all four regions when compared with the previous quarter and the same time last year. Employers in all four regions expect to grow payrolls during the first quarter of 2023. North shows a strong hiring pace where the net employment outlook stood at 36 per cent followed by the West at 32 per cent while the outlook for the South and East was 29 per cent and 26 per cent, respectively. Digital roles will continue to drive most demand. Organizations in the IT industry and Finances and Real Estate report the most optimistic Outlook (39 per cent), followed by Consumer Goods and Services (37 per cent). "Skill gap continues to be a major constraint in the hiring intent and until it is addressed by corporates and educational institutes' combined efforts, growth in the employment rate will be in single digit," added Gulati. Globally, employers in 38 of 41 countries and territories anticipate a net positive hiring outlook. However, hiring confidence continues to drop across countries as concerns rise over the possible recession and steady inflation. Hiring managers across APAC (Asia Pacific) anticipate strong hiring sentiment with a net employment outlook of 25 per cent but slowing hiring intentions. Singapore with a net employment outlook of 33 per cent topped the list, followed by Australia (32 per cent), and India (32 per cent). Japan (8 per cent) and Taiwan (11 per cent) reported the most cautious employment outlook. "There's no denying that the headwinds that economists have been forecasting are beginning to impact labour markets," Jonas Prising, Chairman &amp; CEO of ManpowerGroup said. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/salesforce-lays-off-over-7000-workers-as-it-hired-too-many-people-in-pandemic/articleshow/96752525.cms">Salesforce lays off over 7,000 workers as it hired 'too many people' in pandemic</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/japanese-startups-look-overseas-as-domestic-market-shrinks/articleshow/96756948.cms">Japanese startups look overseas as domestic market shrinks</a>

India Inc may go cautious on hiring as recession, slowdown looms: Manpower Employment Outlook

The Indian Council of Medical Research Director General Dr Rajiv Bahl on Monday criticised a recently published study on the long-term safety analysis of the <keyword id="9485939" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="covaxin" source="Orion">Covaxin</keyword> in adults and adolescents for its poor methodology and design, and clarified the article misleadingly and erroneously "acknowledges" <keyword id="19918794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ICMR" source="keywords">ICMR</keyword>. Dr Bahl said the study had no control arm of unvaccinated individuals for comparing the rates of events between the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups. Hence, the reported events in the study cannot be linked or attributed to COVID-19 vaccination. He added that the ICMR is not associated with the study and has not provided any financial or technical support for the research. The ICMR DG has written a letter to the authors of the paper and Editor of the journal to immediately remove the acknowledgement to ICMR and publish an erratum. A research paper, titled 'Long-Term Safety Analysis of the BBVl52 <keyword id="21730391" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="coronavirus-vaccine" source="keywords">Coronavirus Vaccine</keyword> in Adolescents and Adults: Findings from a l-Year Prospective Study in North India' stated that nearly one-third of the 926 participants in the study who received Bharat Biotech's anti-Covid vaccine Covaxin reported 'adverse events of special interest,' or AESI. Dr Bahl said that ICMR was acknowledged for research support without any prior approval of or intimation to ICMR, which is inappropriate and unacceptable. He stated that ICMR cannot be associated with this poorly designed study which purports to present a "safety analysis" of Covaxin due to several critical flaws. He said the study does not even provide background rates of observed events in the population, making it impossible to assess the change in incidence of observed events in the post-vaccination period. Baseline information of study participants is missing. The study tool used is inconsistent with 'Adverse Events of Special Interest (AESI)' as defined in the reference provided in the paper for AESI. The method of data collection has a high risk of bias, he said. Study participants were contacted telephonically one year after vaccination and their responses were recorded without any confirmation with clinical records or by physician examination, he pointed out. Dr Bahl also noted that similar acknowledgements to ICMR have been made in previous papers without permission, raising concerns about the authors' practices. "The authors have been urged to immediately rectify the acknowledgment to ICMR and publish an erratum. Additionally, they are asked to address the methodological concerns raised. Failure to do so may prompt ICMR to consider legal and administrative action," he said. The Editor has been asked to retract the paper which implicitly makes conclusions on <keyword id="21495684" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vaccine-safety" source="keywords">vaccine safety</keyword> which are not supported by evidence. The study, conducted by researchers from the Banaras Hindu University from January 2022 to August 2023, stated that nearly 50 per cent of 926 study participants in the study complained of infections during the follow-up period, predominated by viral upper respiratory tract infections. Serious AESI, which included stroke and Guillain-Barre syndrome, were reported in one per cent of individuals, the study, which looked at long-term safety of the BBV152 (Covaxin) vaccine in adolescents and adults, claimed. The study involved 635 adolescents and 291 adults, who received the BBV152 vaccine.

BHU study on Covaxin side effects poorly designed, critically flawed: ICMR Director General

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Jeffrey Gundlach is wary of stocks at current valuations, and expects a recession to hit.</li><li>The elite investor said the inverted yield curve and leading economic data signal problems ahead.</li></ul>Billionaire investor Jeffrey Gundlach prefers holding cash to overpaying for stocks today, and views a recession as inevitable, he <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNgzrEQr0PE" target="_blank" rel="noopener">told Fox Business Network</a> this week."I'm suspicious of the valuations, I'm suspicious of the exuberance in the market, so I want to have cash at this point which I might want to deploy in the aftermath of the recession that is going to come," he said.The benchmark S&amp;P 500 index surged by 24% last year, and has climbed another 3% this year to an <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-news-sp500-record-high-bull-market-rally-earnings-2024-1">all-time high</a>. Technology stocks have led the charge, including Nvidia which has more than quadrupled in price since the start of last year, boosting its market capitalization to a <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-ai-chatgpt-semiconductors-big-tech-jensen-huang-2024-1">record $1.5 trillion</a>."We're in a valuation spot in the equity market where I think you have to start looking long term and kind of skip this last phase of the exuberance game because I think the values are very, very high," Gundlach said. He advised investors to set aside some cash to buy stocks in India, Japan, and other foreign countries as the global economy slows and valuations drop.The DoubleLine Capital CEO — whose nickname is the "Bond King" — flagged the yield curve inverting then de-inverting as a reliable recession indicator. He noted that 10-year Treasury yields dropped below 2-year yields more than 18 months ago, and the gap between them has shrunk dramatically in recent months."When you start to de-invert, you really get to be on recession watch," Gundlach said. "The fact that recession hasn't come after 80-plus weeks of yield curve inversion — it's very bad logic to say it's not coming, because the de-inversion is happening."Gundlach pointed to the <a href="https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Leading Economic Index</a>, a set of forward indicators, declining for 21 straight months as evidence of trouble ahead. He also noted that a majority of US states have reported rising unemployment over the last six months.Against that backdrop, the fund manager encouraged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year after hiking them from virtually zero to over 5%. He said that borrowing costs are too high on a real or inflation-adjusted basis now, and excessive rates will make it extremely painful for the government to pay the interest due on the national debt.Gundlach <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-spx-double-top-recession-debt-gundlach-doubleline-2024-1">warn</a>ed earlier this month that the S&amp;P 500 looked like a "lousy trade," and a disappointing earnings season could drag down the index. He also said a recession looked highly probable, and labor hoarding could eventually lead to a big wave of layoffs.

Avoid expensive stocks, set aside some cash, and brace for a recession, elite investor Jeffrey Gundlach says

<ul><li>The outbreak of <keyword id="1754604" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="coronavirus">Coronavirus</keyword> has disrupted the job market as the nation goes into a complete lockdown for 21 days. </li><li>As many as 20 million jobs might be lost if the tourism industry doesn’t rebound by October, says the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII). </li><li>From food products to electronics to cement and ceramics, nearly nine million jobs may be affected within the manufacturing space. </li></ul>The outbreak of Coronavirus has disrupted the job market as the nation goes into a complete lockdown for 21 days. This has triggered fears of large scale unemployment across the country. According to the estimates by the National Sample Survey (NSS) and Periodic Labour Force Surveys (PLFS), nearly <a href="https://www.livemint.com/news/india/136-million-jobs-at-risk-in-post-corona-india-11585584169192.html">136 million jobs are on the line</a>. Going by the unemployment rate before Coronavirus hit the economy, India needs to add nearly 10 million jobs to keep the working age population employed. <div type="image" title="corona" msid="74942041" hostid="261"></div> “The implications of this crisis will be dire. We will inevitably have less fiscal space to make much-needed investments in, for example, education, skills, preventative healthcare, and infrastructure. This will not just prevent us from moving forward but will set us back. Our large and growing youth population will be further disenfranchised, potentially spurring social discord, crime, and instability," Sabina Dewan, the president and executive director of the think-tank JustJobs Network <a href="https://www.livemint.com/news/india/136-million-jobs-at-risk-in-post-corona-india-11585584169192.html">told</a> Mint. This will majorly impact the gig economy, contract workers, small businesses — and also those employed without a legal contract such as casual labourers — who do not have a fixed take home salary. Over five million Indians have contract jobs which are less than a year in tenure. A recent survey by the job search platform Indeed also said that half of the Indian businesses already trimmed the contractual workforce and freelancers to cut operational costs. In fact, a third of the companies say they will temporarily halt hiring activities. ‘20 million jobs might be lost if the industry doesn’t rebound by October’ <div type="image" title="tourism" msid="74941956" hostid="261"></div> Tourism and hospitality are one of the <keyword id="8993702" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="worst-hit-sectors">worst hit sectors</keyword>, after the Covid-19 induced downturn. Most of the countries asked employees to pause travel plans related and closed borders. Even hotel rooms remained empty all this while. As many as <a href="https://www.livemint.com/news/india/136-million-jobs-at-risk-in-post-corona-india-11585584169192.html">20 million jobs</a> might be lost if the industry doesn’t rebound by October, says the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII). That accounts for over half of the tourism and hospitality workforce. In fact, restaurants already reported a 35% drop, because of fewer footfalls as people stay at home, practising social distancing. This has impacted flexi workers such as guides, restaurant sanitation workers, waiters, suppliers of vegetables and other raw material to the hotels. Over 9 million jobs impacted in the manufacturing cluster <div type="image" title="manu" msid="74941943" hostid="261"></div> From food products to electronics to cement and ceramics, nearly nine million jobs may be affected within the manufacturing space, owing to the plant shutdowns, according to the temporary staffing firm Adecco Group. The lockdown has brought manufacturing and production projects to a standstill. For instance, the handset manufacturing industry is deep in losses at ₹15,000 crore because of production delays. “At present, we have a turnover of ₹500 crore to ₹700 crore per day. So, a shutdown for about three weeks essentially means a loss ranging between ₹10,000 crore and ₹15,000 crore,” Pankaj Mohindroo, chairman of the Indian Cellular &amp; Electronic Association of India (ICEA) <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/hardware/covid-19-handset-manufacturers-stare-at-upto-rs-15000-cr-production-loss-amid-lockdown/articleshow/74813579.cms?from=mdr">told</a> ET. ICEA represents smartphone manufacturers including Apple, Oppo, Lava and more. As per a report by the <a href="https://gadgets.ndtv.com/mobiles/news/iphone-make-in-india-production-halt-april-14-lockdown-apple-foxconn-wistron-2200365">Wall Street Journal</a>, Apple seems to be going slow on its production of iPhone 11 in India. Automobile sector can lose up to a million jobs <div type="image" title="Worker wearing a face mask is seen on a production line at the plant of Dongfeng Honda Automobile Co in Wuhan" msid="74941976" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;A worker wearing a face mask is seen on a production line at the plant of Dongfeng Honda Automobile Co in Wuhan, the epicenter of the novel coronavirus outbreak, in Hubei province, China March 16, 2020. Picture taken March 16, 2020.ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY. CHINA OUT.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> Meanwhile, the automobile industry, which has already been through massive production costs and falling sales for the last year, will also suffer more, thanks to the lockdown. This will cost the country a million jobs across dealerships, frontline workers among others. The auto industry is staring at losses of over ₹13,000 crore due to forced shutdowns. That will also impact the economy as a whole since the industry also contributes around 7.5% to India's overall GDP. 600,000 contractual jobs at risk in the aviation sector <div type="image" title="A pilot wearing a mask arrives at the international lounge at Pearson Airport in Toronto" msid="74942005" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;A pilot wearing a mask arrives, amid growing global numbers of coronavirus cases, at the international lounge at Pearson Airport in Toronto, Ontario, Canada March 15, 2020. REUTERS/Chris Helgren&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> Airlines is probably the worst affected sector as both domestic and international travel has come to a standstill. As per recent estimates, nearly 600,000 contractual workers are at risk of losing their jobs, especially those in on-ground and support roles. “Indigo, India’s largest airline, has reported a 15-20% decline in daily bookings over the past few days, compared with the week-ago period, and expects its quarterly earnings to be materially impacted,” Kapil Kaul, chief executive for aviation consultancy CAPA India <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/how-different-sectors-of-the-economy-are-bearing-the-brunt-of-the-coronavirus-outbreak/articleshow/74630297.cms?from=mdr">told</a> ET. IndiGo, GoAir and Spicejet have already cut the employee salaries across roles for the month of March — including the chairman. Over half of the revenue of the Indian apparel industry comes from exports — which has come to a halt <div type="image" title="apparel" msid="74942015" hostid="261"></div> The pandemic has hit the global supply chain and trade has come to a grinding halt. Over half of the revenue of the Indian apparel industry comes from exports. More than a third of the apparel industry export orders are placed from Europe. According to the Ministry of Commerce, India exported garments worth <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/how-different-sectors-of-the-economy-are-bearing-the-brunt-of-the-coronavirus-outbreak/articleshow/74630297.cms?from=mdr">₹1 trillion in 2018-19</a>. Added to that is the shutting down of malls and retail stores due to lockdown. “With the region being declared the new epicentre for the disease by the World Health Organization, new orders are bound to be affected. But it is hard to assess the outcome now. We’ll know in the next couple of weeks,” says Raja Shanmugam, who is a manufacturer and heads the Tirupur Exporters’ Association. However, the Confederation of Indian Textile Industry (<a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/topic/CITI">CITI</a>) has asked the government for a relief package for the workers in the industry. "Include cotton yarn and fabrics under Rebate of State and Central Taxes and Levies (RoSCTL), Interest Equalisation Scheme (IES) and Merchandise Exports from India Scheme (MEIS) benefits with immediate effect to prevent job losses for lakhs of people in the handloom, powerloom and spinning sectors," <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/how-different-sectors-of-the-economy-are-bearing-the-brunt-of-the-coronavirus-outbreak/articleshow/74630297.cms?from=mdr">said </a>T Rajkumar, chairman, CITI. Meanwhile... <div type="image" title="corona2" msid="74942027" hostid="261"></div> On the other hand, telecom, healthcare are the <a href="https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/three-sectors-remain-unscathed-so-far-from-covid-19-hit">sectors least affected by the global pandemic</a>. The telecom sector seems to be rebounding as most of India is working from home during the lockdown, thereby availing more data services. With more people practising social distancing, the data usage is expected to surge by up to 15% in India, Quint <a href="https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/three-sectors-remain-unscathed-so-far-from-covid-19-hit">reported</a> citing Rajiv Sharma, head of equity research and telecom analyst at SBICAP Securities. While healthcare is at the forefront of battling the Coronavirus infections. The public health emergency has led to the country prioritising in-house manufacturing of pharmaceutical ingredients after Coronavirus disrupted the global supply chains — leading to shortage of medical drugs, face masks, ventilators and more. India said it will spend $1.3 billion for pharmaceuticals.

Over 136 million jobs are at risk due to Corona lockdown — Here are the worst-hit sectors

<keyword id="21333142" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indias-population" source="keywords">India's population</keyword> is projected to peak in the early 2060s at about <keyword id="22386427" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="1-7-billion" source="keywords">1.7 billion</keyword> and then decline by 12%, but the country will remain the world's most populous throughout the century, the <keyword id="19896118" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="United-Nations" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="United Nations" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="United Nations">United Nations</keyword> has said. The World Population Prospects 2024 report, released on Thursday, said that the world's population is expected to continue growing over the coming 50-60 years, reaching a peak of around 10.3 billion people in the mid-2080s, significantly up from 8.2 billion in 2024. After peaking, the global population is projected to start declining gradually, falling to 10.2 billion people by the end of the century. India, which surpassed <keyword id="19894886" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="China" source="keywords">China</keyword> as the world's most populous nation last year, will continue to hold that position through 2100. "The population of India, which is expected to remain the world's largest throughout the century, will likely decline by 12% after reaching its peak in the early 2060s at about 1.7 billion," the <keyword id="19898339" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="UN" source="keywords">UN</keyword> report published by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), <keyword id="271075" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="population-division" source="Orion">Population Division</keyword> said. According to the report, India's population in 2024 is projected at 1.45 billion and this will peak to 1.69 billion in 2054. After this, India's population is projected to decline to 1.5 billion by the end of the century in 2100, but the country will still remain the most populous nation on Earth. Responding to a question by PTI on population projections for India, Senior Population Affairs Officer, Population Division, <keyword id="6355835" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="un" source="Orion">UN</keyword> DESA Clare Menozzi said at a press conference that "India is currently the largest country in the world in terms of population, and it is projected to stay so throughout the century. The population is currently estimated at 1.45 billion, and it's supposed to increase further to 1.69 billion. "It's supposed to peak around the 2060s in size and then it starts to slightly decline. So by the end of the century, India is projected to be around 1.5 billion, but will still the largest country in the world by a large margin." The report said that China's population, currently 1.41 billion in 2024, will fall to 1.21 billion in 2054 and further decline to 633 million by 2100. "It is anticipated that China, the country currently with the world's second-largest population, will likely experience the largest absolute population loss between 2024 and 2054 (204 million)," followed by <keyword id="6355311" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Japan" source="Orion">Japan</keyword> (21 million) and <keyword id="6358826" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Russia" source="Orion">Russia</keyword> (10 million). "Longer-range population projections are more uncertain" for China, it said. "However, due to its large size and sustained low level of fertility, China is also likely to record the largest population decline of any country through the end of the century (786 million people). By 2100, China is projected to have lost more than a half of its current population and to have returned to a population size comparable to that recorded in the late 1950s (50% probability)." Responding to a question on the significantly low population projection for China, Director of the Population Division at UN DESA John Wilmoth said that "it really relates to the level of fertility that's observed currently in China. The current number is right around one birth per woman on average over a lifetime." "Given that you need 2.1 births to maintain the current population without migration, if fertility levels remain at such a low level, even if they come up slightly, any fertility level if it's below two, or especially below 1.8 or below 1.5, you're really getting into low levels of fertility and it produces a long run decline that's quite significant. And that's true for China. It's true for some other countries in this analysis," Wilmoth said. Currently, nearly one-fifth of all countries and areas, including China, Italy, the Republic of Korea and Spain, are experiencing what is sometimes referred to as "ultra-low" fertility, with fewer than 1.4 live births per woman over a lifetime. The report added that the global fertility rate currently stands at 2.25 live births per woman, down from 3.31 births in 1990. "More than half of all countries and areas globally have fertility below the replacement level of 2.1 live births per woman. This is the level required for a population to maintain a constant size in the long run (without migration), with each generation being followed by another of roughly equal size," it said. Pakistan is projected to overtake the US as the third-largest country in the world, with a population of 389 million in 2054. Currently, the US is the third largest country in the world with a population of 345 million and in 2054, it will be the fourth largest with 384 million people. Pakistan will remain the third largest country in the world, with a population of 511 million people in 2100. The report said that the estimated likelihood that the world's population will peak within the current century is very high, with a probability of 80%, a major change in UN projections from a decade ago, when this probability was around 30%. The size of the world's population in 2100 is now expected to be 6%smaller - or about 700 million people fewer - than anticipated a decade ago. In about 126 countries and areas, the population is likely to continue growing through 2054, potentially reaching a peak later in the century or beyond 2100. This group includes several of the world's most populous countries: India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the United States of America. In 2023, the global number of deaths among children under age 5 fell below 5 million for the first time in recent history. However, 95% of such deaths took place in the 126 countries with populations that are still growing, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, India, Nigeria and Pakistan. The report added that globally, life expectancy at birth reached 73.3 years in 2024, an increase of 8.4 years since 1995. Further reductions in mortality are projected to result in an average longevity of around 77.4 years globally in 2054. Since 2022, life expectancy has returned to levels observed before the emergence of the coronavirus disease in nearly all countries and areas. At the height of the COVID-19 pandemic during 2020 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth fell to 70.9 years, down from 72.6 in 2019. The report said that by 2080, persons aged 65 or older will outnumber children under 18. "By the late 2070s, the number of persons at ages 65 years and higher globally is projected to reach 2.2 billion, surpassing the number of children (under age 18). By the mid-2030s, it is projected that there will be 265 million persons aged 80 years or older, more than the number of infants (1 year of age or less)," it said.

India's population to peak in early 2060s to 1.7 billion before declining: UN

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="11974765" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="gen-z" source="Orion">Gen Z</keyword> and <keyword id="11921342" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="millennials" source="Orion">millennials</keyword>' <keyword id="12137393" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="savings" source="Orion">savings</keyword> accounts were hardest hit during the <keyword id="11896136" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="pandemic" source="Orion">pandemic</keyword>.</li><li>Young adults experienced the most job loss, since many worked in service industries.</li></ul>Young adults' savings accounts were hit hardest during the pandemic. So finds a <a href="https://www.bankrate.com/personal-finance/debt/credit-card-debt-emergency-savings-2022/">Bankrate survey</a> that polled 1,000 Americans. Nearly half of Gen Z (46%) and nearly half of millennials (43%) said they currently have less emergency savings than they did before the pandemic. That's more than the 34% of overall respondents who have less emergency savings now.Twenty-two percent of both millennials and Gen Z said they had about the same amount saved, while 28% of Gen Z and 31% of millennials said they have more saved.The findings are reflective of the toll the pandemic took on younger workers, who suffered the most from job loss. Unemployment <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-coronavirus-recession-is-affecting-millennials-gen-z-2020-8">data from the St. Louis Fed in July 2020</a> showed that both Gen Z and millennials were worst affected in terms of unemployment. They were most likely to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-coronavirus-recession-is-affecting-millennials-gen-z-2020-8">say in several surveys</a> around that time that they lost jobs or that their incomes suffered. Recessions typically hit young adults hardest in the short term, but the cohort was even more susceptible due to the nature of a global health crisis that slammed service industries. As Bruce McClary, senior vice president for membership and communications at the National Foundation for Credit Counseling (NFCC), told Bankrate, many young adults work in the travel, food and beverage, and hospitality sectors, which were all impacted when the <keyword id="11893570" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="economy" source="Orion">economy</keyword> shut down. While many have since recovered their jobs, its financial impact could have longer-term repercussions.With no income to rely on, young adults couldn't add to their savings and likely had to withdraw from them to cover living costs. As <a href="https://sociology.northwestern.edu/people/faculty/core/christine-percheski.html">Christine Percheski</a>, demographer and associate professor of sociology at Northwestern University, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pandemic-widened-millennial-wealth-gap-economic-inequality-rich-poor-henry-2021-1">previously told Insider</a>, "I would imagine a lot of people are burning through whatever savings they had as they experienced unemployment."<h2>A growing wealth gap</h2>That some young adults were still able to save more emphasizes how the pandemic has widened inequality, especially among millennials. Their wealth gap <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/2-types-of-millennials-mega-llennials-and-me-llennials-2020-1">dates back to the Great Recession</a>, which left many millennials struggling to build wealth as they tried to find a job in a weak labor market. However, those able to land a steady income or with family support remained relatively unaffected, able to gain a foothold in their career and finances. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/millennials-last-graduating-class-affordability-crisis-student-loans-housing-2019-5">The affordability crisis</a> created by high housing costs, student debt, and stagnant wages already faced millennials pre-pandemic. While a smaller, higher-earning group with stable income has been able to save, invest, and even buy homes with extra money they would otherwise spend on travel and social lives in non-pandemic times."There's a group of wealthier millennials that probably have spent less of their disposable income than they would in non-COVID times and may actually have built up some savings during this," Percheski said.Consider the millennials raking in over $100,000 annually. Two financial advisers <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/henrys-millennials-pandemic-reopening-financial-challenges-2020-6">told Insider</a> that clients of this ilk were tucking away excess cash during the summer of 2020, as much as $3,000 in some cases, that normally would've been spent on <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/typical-millennial-henry-earnings-savings-debt-2020-1">brunches or plane tickets</a>. While most of Gen Z isn't in the workforce, those that are also experience a deep wealth divide. Some college graduates are having the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-graduates-hardest-time-job-hunting-recession-2021-7">toughest time finding work</a>, squeezed out by teens that cost less to hire and more skilled millennials. But other Gen Zers are <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-is-the-luckiest-generation-vs-millennials">bouncing back</a>, quitting their jobs <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-quitting-joining-great-resignation-reshuffle-job-with-purpose-2022-2">for a better one</a> and demanding more work-life balance. With many young adults still feeling a hole in their pockets from job loss, the effects of the <keyword id="12948405" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="coronavirus-recession" source="Orion">coronavirus recession</keyword>'s K-shaped recovery are still lingering.

The pandemic ate young adults' savings, widening the gap between the Gen Z and millennial haves and have-nots

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The <keyword id="12459344" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="yield-curve" source="Orion">yield curve</keyword> inversion this time around not be a reliable indicator of a coming recession, a <keyword id="12360873" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="pimco" source="Orion">Pimco</keyword> fund manager told Bloomberg. </li><li>The "enormous amount of quantitative easing" from central banks may blunt the inversion's accuracy as a recession warning. </li></ul>A key segment of the Treasury yield curve inverted this week for the first time in nearly three years, but fixed-income specialist <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-30/pimco-says-curve-inversion-may-be-unreliable-recession-signal?sref=GUP2BhaG">Pimco told Bloomberg</a> it may no longer serve as a reliable warning of an upcoming recession and recommended investors hold big-cap stocks. "There's reason to believe that this time around, yield curve inversion may not be as good of an indicator as it has been in the past, particularly given the enormous amount of quantitative easing undertaken by global central banks," said Erin Browne, a fund manager at Pacific Investment Management Co., said in a televised interview. On Tuesday, the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/rates/u-s--rates-2-years?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">yield on the 2-year Treasury note</a> briefly rose above the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/rates/u-s--rates-10-years">10-year yield</a> for the first time since August 2019, crossing at around 2.39%. Other segments of the yield curve inverted earlier.The rise in short-term interest rates above longer-term interest rates suggests bond investors expect restrictive financial conditions and a contraction in the economy. Treasury yields have been climbing this year as the Federal Reserve embarks on aggressively jacking up interest rates to tame hot <keyword id="11894140" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="inflation" source="Orion">inflation</keyword>. The Fed began raising interest rates in March and has projected six more rate hikes in 2022. "What is probably more critical is really looking at why the yield curve is inverting and some of the peculiarities around this yield curve inversion versus prior periods," said Browne. The central bank is tightening monetary policy as US consumer price inflation sits near 8%. In addition to rate hikes, the Fed is winding down its massive quantitative easing program under which it purchased billions of dollars a month in securities. It restarted QE measures in 2020 to respond to the COVID-19 crisis. More broadly, the world's major central banks since 2020 have pushed more than $11 trillion into the global economy to deal with the coronavirus crisis, <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/global-qe-tracker/">according to the Atlantic Council</a>. There's been speculation this year that the US economy will enter a period of stagflation, with economic activity slowing while inflation stays hot. This has raised questions for investors about where they should allocate money. "You can invest within equities and invest within pockets of the risk market, but moving up in quality is incredibly important, particularly as you move late-cycle," said Browne. "You want to be in companies that have high free cash flow generation, that have solid balance sheets, and that are able to withstand periods of economic weakness." The "best place to be right now," is in US large-cap stocks, she said. "I like owning US large [caps] over all other regions. I think that small-cap will continue to be disadvantaged because of cost pressures, and large caps generally have better balance sheets and are able to withstand higher costs, which is one the biggest things afflicting <keyword id="11893875" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets" source="Orion">markets</keyword> right now, particularly corporates."

Pimco says the yield curve inversion may be a false alarm for recession due to QE and US large-cap stocks are the 'best place to be right now'

<ul><li><keyword id="44660" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="JPMorgan">JPMorgan</keyword>, <keyword id="44473" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Citigroup">Citigroup</keyword>, and Wells Fargo set aside a combined $28 billion to cover potential defaults on loans amid the pandemic <keyword id="6357558" type="DEFINITION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Recession">recession</keyword>. </li><li>It's the most banks have set aside for <keyword id="142154" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="bad-loans">bad loans</keyword> since 2008, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-14/u-s-banks-signal-no-v-recovery-with-provisions-near-2008-record?srnd=markets-vp&amp;sref=Zwwm81xn81xn">according to Bloomberg</a>. </li><li>"This is not a normal recession," said JPMorgan CEO <keyword id="153519" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Jamie-Dimon">Jamie Dimon</keyword>. "The recessionary part of this you're going to see down the road."</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/">Read more on Business Insider. </a></li></ul>Three major US banks took a hit from second-quarter profits to stockpile billions to guard against a potential wave of defaults driven by the <keyword id="8829783" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="coronavirus-pandemic">coronavirus pandemic</keyword>. JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo collectively set aside $28 billion in the second quarter for bad loans, according to earnings reports released Tuesday. The only time the banks have set aside more money for potential defaults was in the last three months of 2008 amid the great financial crisis, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-14/u-s-banks-signal-no-v-recovery-with-provisions-near-2008-record?srnd=markets-vp&amp;sref=Zwwm81xn81xn">Bloomberg reported</a>.The extra money set aside signals that the banks expect a slower economic recovery from the pandemic recession, marked by defaults. JPMorgan now expects that the unemployment rate will remain elevated above 10% for the remainder of the year, and the US gross domestic product will take longer to recover. "This is not a normal recession," JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said on an earnings call. "The recessionary part of this you're going to see down the road."Dimon added that the effects of the recession have been pushed down the road because of stimulus measures provided to keep the economy afloat. As those programs come to an end, it could spell trouble ahead. Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-3-reasons-for-rally-over-next-year-2020-7">A Wall Street investment chief dispels the notion that surging stocks are disconnected from the economy — and lays out 3 reasons why the market will continue to climb over the next year</a>Citigroup CEO Michael Corbat expressed a similar sentiment on a call with analysts. "I don't think anybody should leave any <keyword id="623174" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="bank-earnings">bank earnings</keyword> call this quarter simply feeling like the worst is absolutely behind us and it's a rosy path ahead," he said. He continued: "we don't want people leaving the call simply thinking the world is a great place and it's a V-shaped recovery."<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/citigroup-stock-earnings-second-quarter-report-coronavirus-beat-recession-economy-2020-7-1029392117">JPMorgan set aside</a> nearly $11 billion for possible loan losses, reducing its profit by half. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/citigroup-stock-earnings-second-quarter-report-coronavirus-beat-recession-economy-2020-7-1029392117#">Citigroup's net income</a> was 73% lower than last year's because the bank set aside $7.9 billion to cover bad loans. Wells Fargo reported a quarterly loss, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/wells-fargo-stock-price-q2-earnings-coronavirus-profit-loss-protections-2020-7-1029393676">its first since the financial crisis</a>, as it put away nearly $10 billion for a wave of defaults.

'This is not a normal recession': 3 large US banks set aside $28 billion to cover potential loan defaults due to the coronavirus pandemic

<ul><li>The <keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword> on Friday cut its economic growth estimate for fiscal year 2023 to 7% from 7.2% forecast earlier.</li><li>India’s central bank has lowered its growth estimates due to constant geopolitical tensions, monetary policy tightening across nations and elevated inflation.</li><li>Several rating agencies have also recently trimmed their annual growth rate projections after GDP growth rate fell short of expectations in the past quarters.</li></ul>The <keyword id="6354335" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="Orion">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) on Friday cut its economic growth estimate for fiscal year 2023 to 7% from 7.2% forecast earlier. While it expects GDP growth to drop to 4.6% in the third and fourth quarter, respectively, from the estimated 6.3% in the second quarter, the broad expectation is that economic activity will recover by the first quarter of the next fiscal year. India’s central bank has lowered its growth estimates on risks emanating from geopolitical tensions, monetary policy tightening across nations and elevated inflation. Global growth is expected to slow down from 6.1% in 2021 to 3.2% in 2022 as the outlook is “gloomy and more uncertain,” <keyword id="7268643" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi-governor-shaktikanta-das" source="Orion">RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das</keyword> said in his speech on Friday. “Against this challenging global environment, economic activity in India remains stable. While real GDP growth in Q1:2022-23 turned out to be lower than our expectations, the late recovery in kharif sowing, the comfortable reservoir levels, improvement in capacity utilisation, buoyant bank credit expansion and government’s continued thrust on capital expenditure are expected to support aggregate demand and output in H2:2022-23,” Das said. Markets reacted positively to the 50-basis-point rate hike on Friday, as the outlook for India is relatively better than most developed economies, which are expected to slip into recession in the aftermath of the massive rate hike cycle undertaken earlier this year. India’s been battling several of these risks, but with capital outflows abating and prices of several commodities cooling, the risk to the external sector has abated. India’s import cover stands at nine months, from 20 months a year ago. There’s been much talk about India’s decoupling from the rest of the world, with many believing that India is an oasis in the midst of a global sand storm. While there’s no doubt that India has been hit by the fallout of the war and rate hikes undertaken by central banks across developed markets, economic activity remains stable. The positive commentary by the RBI Governor helped cheer markets despite the rate hike. Inflation in India has been lower than the double-digit spikes seen in many other developed countries. The fight against inflation may call for more rate hikes by the RBI, but robust demand could save the day for economic growth. With rainfall coming in higher than the long-period average across most parts of India, higher rural consumption could provide a kicker to economic growth this festive season. According to Nomura’s India economist and vice president, Aurodeep Nandi, “The relatively unchanged growth and inflation outlook by the RBI indicates that the policy arithmetic hasn’t materially changed for it.” While the Indian economy continues to battle the aftershocks of the pandemic, war in Ukraine and aggressive rate tightening cycle in most developed markets, the havoc is still not as bad as it has been for many other economies. Real economic growth in the April-June quarter of the current fiscal year was at 13.5% on a year-on-year basis, surpassing the pre-pandemic level by 3.8%. This growth has been driven by private consumption largely and investment demand. High frequency indicators also suggest that the second half of the fiscal should continue to be buoyant. Not just the RBI, but several rating agencies have also recently trimmed their annual growth rate projections after the GDP growth rate fell short of expectations in the past quarters. “Rising interest rates, uneven distribution of monsoons and slowing global growth will dampen economic momentum,” said Moody’s while cutting growth forecasts on September 1. It cut calendar year 2023 growth rate projections to 5.2%. <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; table-layout: fixed; width: 468pt;"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Institution </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">GDP forecast cut FY23 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Earlier projection </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Moody’s </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">5.2% (Calendar year 2023) </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">5.4% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">International Monetary Fund (IMF) </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.4% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">8.2% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Nomura </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">4.7% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">5.4% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">FICCI </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.4% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Goldman Sachs </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.2% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Asian Development Bank </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.5% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">CRISIL </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.3% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.8% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">SBI </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">6.8% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.5% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">YES Bank </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">6.9% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7% </td></tr></tbody></table> With prices of most commodities coming off the highs seen during the first half of the fiscal year, markets are betting on a better second half. The RBI Governor echoed this sentiment on Friday in his speech. The August consumer price inflation remains elevated and above the upper tolerance band of the RBI, however, a good kharif crop and declining prices of most commodities could bring some respite to inflation. Das in his speech said: “The recent correction in global commodity prices including crude oil, if sustained, may ease cost pressures in the coming months. The inflation trajectory remains clouded with uncertainties arising from continuing geopolitical tensions and nervous global financial market sentiments.” Clearly, the battle against inflation is not over and more rate hikes are in the offing. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/rbi-hikes-repo-rate-by-50-bps-taking-it-to-a-three-year-high-of-5-9-das-says-inflation-at-alarmingly-high-levels/articleshow/94550429.cms">RBI hikes repo rate by 50 bps, taking it to a three-year high of 5.9% – Das says inflation at ‘alarmingly high levels’ across jurisdictions</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/e-commerce-sales-will-drive-credit-cards-spends-in-september-says-report/articleshow/94538013.cms">E-commerce sales will drive credit cards spends in September, says report</a>

RBI cuts FY23 GDP growth forecast to 7% as developed world heads into recession

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Uday Padyana moved from India to the US in his 20s, landing a few tech jobs in Silicon Valley. </li><li>Despite better growth opportunities in India, Uday prefers the work culture in the US.</li></ul>This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with Uday Padyana, a mid-30s manager at a Big Tech company in Silicon Valley. The following has been edited for length and clarity.When I first arrived in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/reasons-i-left-silicon-valley-california-after-two-years-2023-12">Silicon Valley</a> in 2013 after relocating from India in my 20s, I wanted to move back.My parents and grandmother thought it was just homesickness, but I'd previously lived and worked outside of my hometown, so knew that this wasn't that feeling. It was because I knew that working in Big Tech in Silicon Valley would change me into a different person and I'd never move back.It's been 11 years since then, and I think I've gotten happier with my life here now that I've worked at a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/landing-job-career-big-tech-interview-amazon-meta-google-apple-2024-5">few different jobs in Big Tech</a>. But I've also missed out on so many things back home — my family, friends, social circle, and sense of belonging.<h2 id="c75e447d-f472-426f-b4b8-19ef15acd002">Working in the US suits me more, although I'd have more opportunities in India</h2>I've interned and worked at a few other tech companies in the Valley, including <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/early-paypal-employee-sold-stock-too-soon-millionaire-2021-6">PayPal</a>, and I'm currently at a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/quit-big-tech-dream-job-pay-perks-not-worth-it-2024-5">Big Tech company</a>. Prior to my current role, I also worked in Atlanta at a midsize tech firm, and outside the industry for over four years as a data analyst in Washington, DC.There are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/millennial-working-in-bengaluru-the-silicon-valley-of-india-2023-7">more opportunities</a> in India. The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/heres-why-investors-say-india-tech-startup-ecosystem-booms-2022-12">tech industry's growth rate</a> has been phenomenal there, especially for the top companies. If I worked the same job for the same company in India, my salary would probably be about 60% of what I make here, yet I'd probably be able to save almost twice the amount I save here.That's because the cost of living and taxes in Silicon Valley are higher than those in India. There's no public transportation here, so people either have to have a car or pay for Uber, which is expensive compared to India. High-quality organic food and eating out here is also more expensive, and hiring cleaning services is cheaper in India. I also have higher expenses here because of my annual trips back to see family in India.But despite this, working in the US suits me better than working in India because of my individualistic mindset. There's a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/middle-managers-great-flattening-organization-meta-tech-layoffs-firing-2023-3">flatter hierarchy</a> in general, and I respond well to environments with accountability, ownership, and independence.I also like that there's more scope to explore restaurants with cuisines from across the world, meet people from different countries, and have access to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sf-hot-spots-where-founders-vc-tech-workers-hang-out-2024-7">top networking places</a>, conferences, and classes here in the US.<h2 id="dfe1658c-5024-4333-9878-9867140a9360">I had reverse culture shock when I first went home</h2>The first time I went back to India after three years of living in the US, I had a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/reverse-culture-shock-moving-back-to-america-asia-singapore-2023-12">hard time adjusting</a>. It was <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-delhi-heat-wave-record-water-crisis-2024-5">too hot for me</a> and everything felt smaller, including my own room, where I'd lived for years. I was more sensitive to noise; it's quieter in the US, while India is bustling with sounds all the time, so I couldn't sleep. The air quality was also worse.Since I was upset, I threw tantrums like a teenager. By the end of the trip, though, I realized I was at fault since I was expecting people to change their ways and norms for me when I was only visiting for a few weeks.I decided to travel once a year to India, a promise I've been able to keep for the most part.Despite these regular visits, I realize I've changed. I expect more silence and personal space. The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-heatwaves-could-soon-not-be-survivable-humans-world-bank-2022-12">summers have gotten even hotter</a> in India, and I've become accustomed to air conditioning and higher-quality wifi since we have them everywhere in the US. I've also forgotten some customs and have done them incorrectly.Because of my newly acquired mannerisms, preferences, habits, and life choices, it's easy for my old social circle to see me as "the guy who's living abroad." If I say a word in an American way out of habit, sometimes they think that I'm doing it deliberately to show off. Or if I say something authoritatively, it's assumed that I got that confidence from living in the US, not because that was always my personality.I also see that I might come across as snobbish now, so I have to consciously think through how I'm coming across before I say something. Some people back home think very competitively — they've hinted that they think I'm just plain lucky, and if they had the opportunity, they'd do it too and much better.<h2 id="72978b4b-ce83-4e5e-a4d6-9a4c6e3aeb5e">I missed out on relationships</h2>My definitions of comfort, friendship, and relationships have also changed.Texts on WhatsApp and calls back home aren't as effective as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-deal-with-homesickness-loneliness-living-abroad-2023-11">being in person with family and friends</a>. WhatsApp calls can work for short chats but aren't as good for emotional conversations. It's difficult to assess their emotional and physical states, and there's also a higher risk of arguments due to misunderstandings.Sometimes, friends or family don't share things with me because they think certain things would be better to be said in person. I also don't share as much about my life with them as I would've naturally if I were around. I've missed many occasions where people meet and reconnect — family members' and friends' weddings, childbirths, and other important events of their lives.I also didn't evolve alongside my friends in India. I haven't followed their timelines and feel less peer pressure. Differences in mindsets between my old friends and I have crept up over time, from food and content preferences to outlook on life.I feel like I could've grown faster both materially and spiritually in the US because of the opportunities I had here, and that may not necessarily be at the same pace as the people I grew up with.<h2 id="8b127f72-db4a-46f9-a249-de4026d82a01">I wonder what my life would've been like if I stayed in India</h2>I'm generally happy with my job and my experience working in Big Tech here.While I have no regrets about my choice to move to the US for a tech job, part of me wonders what my life would be like now had I stayed back in India. Maybe I would've gone after dreams I aspired to as a teenager, like becoming an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/quit-tech-job-launch-startup-now-make-400000-2024-4">entrepreneur in tech</a> or entertainment.But perhaps this is a bit of wishful thinking. As a colleague here put it, "Who knows, maybe you'd have just been a failure there — so many try and fail and only a few succeed." I don't have any way of knowing what could've been.Living somewhere new changes you internally and makes you a different person. I feel too foreign here and too foreign there. Even if I had all the resources to go back to India, it'd be different — I've grown apart from who I was. And as much as I really like the US, I'm not from here. I don't have the same upbringing as many people here, so there are subtle differences in the jokes, music, pop culture references, and even habits.One thing I'd like to do is to actualize all of my gifts and feel fully utilized, whether from a creative standpoint or a tech and business standpoint. I feel I haven't done that much and mostly have been flailing to make ends meet and get myself into a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/financial-plan">"safer" situation</a> by having a job, insurance, and savings.But with the recession, there's nothing safe, and I see that I could've just taken risks in the first place — on my startup idea, trying to break into the movie industry, or even taking a break to write a novel I've wanted to write — and I can do so even now.When I first moved to the US, I explored different frameworks for long-term thinking, such as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-you-can-learn-from-jeff-bezos-leadership-style">Jeff Bezos's</a> famous approach of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/896830-i-wanted-to-project-myself-forward-to-age-80-and">looking at your life from the point of view of yourself at 80</a>. I hope I can make more conscious future choices to reach an outcome that I can be happy about when I'm in my 40s, 50s, or 90s.If you moved countries for a job and would like to share your story, email Jane Zhang at <a target="_blank" href="mailto:janezhang@businessinsider.com">janezhang@businessinsider.com</a>.

Leaving India and working in tech in the US changed me. I feel too foreign here and too foreign there.

More than 1,600 tech employees are being laid off per day on average in 2023 globally including in India, and the sacking episodes have gained speed amid <keyword id="16083439" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-economic-meltdown-and-recession-fears" source="Orion">global economic meltdown and recession fears</keyword>. In 2022, over 1,000 companies laid off 154,336 workers, as per the data from layoffs <keyword id="16083440" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tracking-site-layoffs-fyi-" source="Orion">tracking site Layoffs.fyi.</keyword> The <keyword id="16083430" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mass-tech-layoffs" source="Orion">mass tech layoffs</keyword> of 2022 are continuing into the new year, and Indian companies and startups are among the leaders in firing staff. Homegrown social media company ShareChat (Mohalla Tech Pvt Ltd) laid off 20 per cent of its workforce due to uncertain market conditions, affecting more than 500 employees. Backed by Twitter, Google, Snap and Tiger Global, ShareChat has about 2,300 employees. In December 2022, ShareChat laid off less than 5 per cent of its employees after it shut down its fantasy sports platform called Jeet11. Companies like Ola (which fired 200 employees) and voice automated startup Skit.ai also dominated the headlines for laying off employees this month. Homegrown quick-grocery delivery provider Dunzo has laid off 3 per cent of its workforce amid cost-cutting measures. The year 2023 has begun on a bad note for tech workers globally and 91 companies have laid off more than 24,000 tech employees in the first 15 days this month, signalling worse days ahead. Amazon announced to lay off 18,000 employees globally, including nearly 1,000 in India. Meanwhile, LinkedIn is full of job hunts, offers of support for laid off friends and colleagues, and advice for coping with career hurdles as several companies trim their workforce to navigate through an uncertain macroeconomic environment. According to market research firm Sensor Tower, the LinkedIn app was downloaded an estimated 58.4 million times in 2022 globally across Google Play Store and Apple App Stores -- up 10 per cent from 2021. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/banks/news/paytm-payments-bank-gets-final-nod-from-rbi-to-operate-bharat-bill-payment-system-services/articleshow/97032913.cms">Paytm Payments Bank gets final nod from RBI to operate Bharat Bill Payment System services </a><a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/indian-ceos-see-a-difficult-year-but-most-say-they-wont-go-for-job-or-salary-cuts-pwc-survey/articleshow/97046963.cms">Indian CEOs see a difficult year but most say they won’t go for job or salary cuts: PwC survey</a>

You Searched For "India recession due to coronavirus" and got 12 results

Some techies are leaving cushy Silicon Valley jobs to launch startups at home in India

Shubhangi Goel,Charissa Cheong

India Inc may go cautious on hiring as recession, slowdown looms: Manpower Employment Outlook

PTI

BHU study on Covaxin side effects poorly designed, critically flawed: ICMR Director General

PTI

Avoid expensive stocks, set aside some cash, and brace for a recession, elite investor Jeffrey Gundlach says

Theron Mohamed

Over 136 million jobs are at risk due to Corona lockdown — Here are the worst-hit sectors

Prerna Sindwani

India's population to peak in early 2060s to 1.7 billion before declining: UN

PTI

The pandemic ate young adults' savings, widening the gap between the Gen Z and millennial haves and have-nots

Hillary Hoffower

Pimco says the yield curve inversion may be a false alarm for recession due to QE and US large-cap stocks are the 'best place to be right now'

Carla Mozée

'This is not a normal recession': 3 large US banks set aside $28 billion to cover potential loan defaults due to the coronavirus pandemic

Carmen Reinicke

RBI cuts FY23 GDP growth forecast to 7% as developed world heads into recession

Malini

Bhakti

Leaving India and working in tech in the US changed me. I feel too foreign here and too foreign there.

Robin Madell

Over 1,600 techies being fired a day on average in January says tracking site Layoffs.fyi

IANS

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