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<ul class="summary-list"><li>The S&amp;P 500 is fresh off its worst weekly decline since March 2023.</li><li>But Deutsche Bank is offering four reasons to stay positive even as recession fears flare.</li></ul>It's an uncomfortable time for equity investors, with the S&amp;P 500 fresh off its biggest weekly decline in 18 months.Although the Federal Reserve is on the brink of long-awaited rate cuts, concerns have crept into the market that the economy is at risk of a sudden unpreventable softening. Deutsche Bank cites those fears as having fueled last week's equity-market jitters.The firm also notes that downturns have historically offered little warning, even when conditions seem fine, and says August's disappointing jobs data provided little security.With that all established, the firm says there are still five reasons for investors to feel optimistic about the economy and road ahead.<ol><li>Job growth remains stable</li></ol>Declining labor data has fractured faith in a soft landing, with Wall Street concerned that a jobs-led slowdown signals a broader downturn ahead.But the perceived decline in job growth isn't as noticeable as some might lead on, Deutsche said.Although payrolls data between April 2023 and March 2024 was lowered 818,000 last month, this downside revision is much more benign when spread out, Deutsche noted:"We'll have to see the full monthly breakdown of that, but it actually means the apparent decline in job growth is less severe once that is accounted for. So the path of payrolls is somewhat flatter than it appears," analysts wrote.The bank said that if these revisions were spread evenly throughout the year, three-month average nonfarm payrolls would remain virtually flat since November 2023.<ol start="2"><li>The stock market's decline has been narrow</li></ol>The market's opening performance last week may have spooked investors, but the plunge was not shared equally among sectors, Deutsche noted.Although the S&amp;P is down 4.25% since August's close, the popular Magnificent 7 stocks suffered a broader a 5.58% drop. This cohort comprises large-cap names that have soared when risk-on sentiment was stronger.But with interest rate cuts ahead and recession fears in the air, investors are more likely to reposition.In this context, Deutsche cited that Bloomberg's 60:40 bond portfolio fell less than 2%, having reached an all-time high on Friday. This could indicate a rebound in fixed-income, as investors gear up for looser borrowing costs.<ol start="3"><li>Rate cuts are on the horizon</li></ol>All of Wall Street appears to be bracing for the Federal Reserve to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html">lower rates</a> at its policy meeting next week. The impact of this is already being felt, Deutsche said."The US 10yr Treasury yield closed at 3.71% on Friday, the lowest since June 2023. And the effects of lower yields are already filtering through into the real economy," analysts wrote. "For instance, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows that a 30yr mortgage rate is currently at 6.43%, the lowest since April 2023."Of course, rate cuts could be perceived as a sign that the Fed is racing to stop a recession, but Deutsche sees no sign of this among other central banksGlobally, most have delivered a limited 25-basis move, an unlikely move if there was widespread economic alarm.<ol start="4"><li>Recession indicators: Not what they were</li></ol>Deutsche also pointed out that several indicators have been <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-indicators-perfect-track-records-sahm-yield-curve-conference-board-2024-9#the-sahm-rule-3">flashing warnings of an impending recession</a>, though a cooldown is yet to show. This has stirred debate among analysts for months now, with a number questioning whether these guaged are trustworthy in the current cycle."There's been a lot of debate as to why this might be, and whether the post- Covid economy is behaving differently somehow. For example, perhaps consumers were cushioned by the pool of excess savings built up in the pandemic," Deutsche said. "But whatever the reason, this shift in how the economy has behaved relative to prior cycles is making it more difficult to rely on these leading indicators."Examples include the Sahm Rule, which signals a recession when the three-month moving average in the unemployment rate climbs 0.5% from a 12-month low. Although this recently happened, the model's own <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/claudia-sahm-rule-profile-recession-indicator-unemployment-rate-interest-rates-2024-8">founder dismissed it as a false positive</a>.

4 positives to focus on as recession fears grip the market, Deutsche Bank says

The <keyword id="19895371" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Congress" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Congress" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Congress">Congress</keyword> party has levied fresh allegations against <keyword id="20914154" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="SEBI-Chairperson" source="keywords">SEBI Chairperson</keyword> <keyword id="19922107" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Madhabi-Puri-Buch" source="keywords">Madhabi Puri Buch</keyword>, calling her a perfect case of the office for profit. This refers to a position that brings some financial gain, or advantage to the office holder, which in this case was Buch's position as a whole-time member of <keyword id="19901201" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SEBI" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="SEBI" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="SEBI">SEBI</keyword>, and then post 2022, as the regulatory body's chairperson. In a press conference in New Delhi on Monday, Pawan Khera, Chairman, Media and Publicity Department, Congress, charged Buch of receiving regular income from private lender <keyword id="19900482" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ICICI-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="ICICI Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="ICICI Bank">ICICI Bank</keyword> and <keyword id="47860" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ICICI-Prudential" source="Orion">ICICI Prudential</keyword>, India's second largest asset management company, all while being the whole-time member and later Chairperson of the capital markets regulatory body. "She (SEBI Chairperson Madhabi Puri Buch) between 2017 and 2024 was taking regular income of Rs 16 crore 80 lakhs from ICICI Bank," alleged Pawan Khera, at the press briefing. The congress spokesperson also alleged that Buch received a total of Rs 16.80 crore between 2017-18 to 2023-24, from ICICI Bank, ICICI Prudential, <keyword id="20043663" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ESOPs" source="keywords">ESOPs</keyword>, and <keyword id="19948097" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="TDS" source="keywords">TDS</keyword> on ESOPs. According to the Congress' allegations, in 2017-18 the SEBI chief allegedly received Rs 2.06 crore from ICICI Bank as salary and Rs 7 lakh from ICICI Prudential. In 2018-19, she received Rs 4.71 crore from ICICI Bank, Rs 2.17 lakh from ICICI Prudential. In 2019-20, Rs 1.21 crore from ICICI Bank and Rs 2.17 lakh from ICICI Prudential. In 2020-21, she was alleged of having received Rs 4.64 crore from ICICI Bank and Rs 2.17 lakh ICICI Prudential. In 2021-22, Congress asserted that the salary stopped from ICICI Bank but she continued to receive Rs 2.17 lakh from ICICI Prudential, also same year she received ESOP and TDS on ESOP from ICICI Bank. In 2022-23, she was alleged to have received Rs 4.44 lakh from ICICI Prudential, in addition to ESOP and TDS on ESOP, In 2023-24, she was alleged to have received Rs 2.17 from ICICI Prudential. The Congress further alleges that during this period, Buch also drew a salary from SEBI as a whole-time member and later as the Chairperson. Khera further added that several probes on ICICI Bank were being adjudicated during this period when Madhabi Puri Buch was receiving income from the group. He also cited unnamed reports to claim that the SEBI chief has relaxed norms for the ICICI Bank. "The person sitting at the top of the regulator is taking salaries from another entity," Khera alleged, adding it was a perfect case of "office for profit". "So we want to know why you were taking your salary from ICICI despite being a full-time member of SEBI?," Khera asked what service she as the SEBI Chairperson provided the bank when she was part of SEBI. "This is a direct violation of Section 54 of SEBI. Therefore, if Madhabi Puri Buch has any shame, she should resign from her post," Khera added. The SEBI Chief is yet to react to the charges made by the Congress in Monday's news conference. Madhabi Puri Buch was a whole-time member of SEBI from April 5, 2017 to October 4, 2021. Then on March 2, 2022, Madhabi Puri Buch became the Chairperson of SEBI. Recently, US-based short seller Hindenburg Research made allegations against her accusing her of conflict of interest. Last month, Hindenburg Research alleged that SEBI Chairperson Madhabi Puri Buch and her husband Dhaval Buch had stakes in "both the obscure offshore entities used in the Admoney siphoning scandal." Hindenburg Research said it has made the new allegations based on documents provided by a whistleblower and investigations carried out by other entities. Soon after, the SEBI Chairperson and her husband, in their personal capacity, issued a detailed statement rejecting the allegations. In the joint statement released to the media they said, "In the context of allegations made in the Hindenburg Report dated August 10, 2024, against us, we would like to state that we strongly deny the baseless allegations and insinuations made in the report. The same are devoid of any truth. Our life and finances are an open book. All disclosures as required have already been furnished to SEBI over the years. We have no hesitation in disclosing any and all financial documents, including those that relate to the period when we were strictly private citizens, to any and every authority that may seek them. Further, in the interest of complete transparency, we would be issuing a detailed statement in due course." "It is unfortunate that Hindenburg Research against whom SEBI has taken an Enforcement action and issued a show cause notice has chosen to attempt character assassination in response to the same," the statement from Madhabi Buch and her husband Dhaval Buch read.

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4 positives to focus on as recession fears grip the market, Deutsche Bank says

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Congress alleges SEBI Chairperson Madhabi Puri Buch of office for profit

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