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<keyword id="19991358" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-markets" source="keywords">Indian markets</keyword> are navigating choppy waters as global economic shifts, from rate cuts to evolving political climates, create new pressure points across the financial landscape, according to a recent report by ANI attributed originally to the Union Bank of India. The domestic stock and bond markets showed signs of strain, with <keyword id="19910363" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bond-yields" source="keywords">bond yields</keyword> witnessing slight adjustments. India’s 10-year government bond yield dipped to 6.82%, a decrease from the previous session, reflecting cautious investor sentiment as the markets react to shifting global indicators. Meanwhile, the 5-year bond yield remained steady at 6.76%, a signal of lingering hesitation amid economic unpredictability. In the currency market, the rupee faced a notable decline, ending the day at ₹84.3725 against the US dollar, slipping from its prior close of ₹84.2800. Market analysts point to significant capital outflows as a key factor, with investors moving funds to perceived safer assets overseas. This migration has weighed heavily on the rupee, underlining the currency’s vulnerability in an environment of global economic flux. India’s stock market bore the brunt of this volatility, with key indices falling over 1%, effectively erasing the gains of a previous rally. This abrupt drop reportedly reflects renewed investor anxiety, largely triggered by the recent <keyword id="20189882" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-presidential-election" source="keywords">US presidential election</keyword> results. Experts suggest that the election has introduced a fresh layer of uncertainty, not only for the US economy but for global markets, impacting everything from policy decisions to investor sentiment. Analysts are also keeping a close eye on upcoming decisions by central banks, which will likely shape the path forward for the Indian equities market. Commodities showed contrasting trends, with Brent crude prices falling on lower demand expectations, as economic indicators point toward cautious spending globally. Gold, on the other hand, experienced a modest rise as investors sought refuge in safe-haven assets, highlighting a shift towards risk aversion among market participants. Globally, major central banks made coordinated efforts to sustain economic growth, with the Bank of England (BoE) announcing a 25 basis-point cut, lowering its benchmark rate to 4.75%. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) largely backed this move to counter inflation, which has been declining, albeit gradually. Across the Atlantic, the US Federal Reserve mirrored this action with its own 25 basis-point cut, a sign of confidence in the ongoing economic recovery. Both rate cuts, though modest, signal a global trend towards caution as economies work to balance growth with stability. In Asia, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) maintained its supportive stance. Governor Pan Gongsheng sought to reassure foreign investors by reaffirming the PBoC’s commitment to growth-oriented policies. Pan emphasized enhanced communication and pledged to open China’s financial services sector further, aiming to attract more international participants. Europe, meanwhile, faced mixed economic signals. Germany reported a steep 2.5% drop in industrial production in September, signalling a slowdown in manufacturing, while the Eurozone saw a mild 0.5% rise in retail sales, reflecting cautious consumer optimism in the region. Adding another layer to the global economic landscape, the European Union’s Climate Change Service warned that 2024 could be the hottest year on record, underscoring urgent climate challenges just as the UN COP29 climate summit approaches. The summit, set to take place in Azerbaijan, aims to rally increased funding for climate action, though tempered expectations linger in light of recent US political shifts. On the domestic front, Niti Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam spoke about India’s potential role in pivotal global trade agreements, specifically the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). These partnerships, Subrahmanyam suggested, could bolster India’s Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSME) sector, which currently accounts for 40% of India’s exports, offering a strategic advantage for Indian trade in an interconnected world. As the Indian markets digest these developments, experts believe continued volatility could be the theme for the coming months. (with ANI inputs)

Indian markets under pressure as global rate cuts stir uncertainty, new report says

Earlier today, RBIs MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) decided to leave the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> unchanged at 6.5%, while changing the policy stance toward neutral. The aim, as <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="RBI" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="RBI">RBI</keyword> maintained, was to strike a balance between taming domestic <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> and maintaining target growth. A neutral stance gives the RBI the flexibility to adjust <keyword id="19950650" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rates" source="keywords">interest rates</keyword> based on the direction of inflation, as opposed to its previous stand of withdrawing accommodation, which eliminates any possibility of rate cuts. While a change of stance doesn’t necessarily mean a cut should follow, most experts view this as a prelude to a possible rate cut in December this year, or even February next year. Says Deepak Ramaraju, Senior Fund Manager, Shriram AMC, "The RBI stance has changed to neutral, indicating that its primary focus is to balance growth and inflation. Growth has been resilient and given the short-term pressure on inflation, RBI may continue to hold interest rates unchanged in Q3 FY 2025. Based on inflation moderating below 4.5% and course of geo-political concerns, the RBI may undertake a rate cut decision in Q4 FY 2025". So, what does this mean for your investments? How will this decision impact your existing funds? We take a look. <h2>Good time to invest in high-yield deposits</h2>This is a good time to invest in high-yield <keyword id="19975805" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fixed-deposits" source="keywords">fixed deposits</keyword> and long-term bonds. That's because with rate cuts imminent in the upcoming quarters, you'd be able to lock-in your funds with the prevailing, relatively higher interest rate right now. As for the yellow metal or gold, it is generally considered a safe haven asset during turbulent market times. That's why you should consider making it a part of your investments, or increasing its weightage in your overall portfolio, depending on your needs. Vijay Kuppa, CEO, InCred Money highlights that with deposit rates at elevated levels, one has an ideal opportunity for locking in high-yield fixed deposits."At the same time, high borrowing costs also make a compelling case for increasing debt allocations in investment portfolios, which offer a buffer against potential equity market corrections, which might occur due to <keyword id="19955176" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="geopolitical-tensions" source="keywords">geopolitical tensions</keyword>", he continues. With the chronic crisis in Middle-East flaring up again, as Israel looks to target Lebanon and Iran, you can expect some volatility and downturns in the <keyword id="19949641" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-markets" source="keywords">equity markets</keyword>, both in India and globally, in the times to come. Over the last 5 days, Sensex has dipped by over 1,900 points, or about 2.38%, and Nifty has also gone down by 2.23%. With this set to continue for some time, you can reconsider and evaluate your investments in debt. Mahendra Kumar Jajoo, CIO – Fixed Income, Mirae Asset Investment Managers (India) explains that the market is confident of a rate cut in the times to come, and that the <keyword id="20066775" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bond-market" source="keywords">bond market</keyword> has already started pricing in the same. "We have already seen some of this already, with 10Y GOI yields at around 6.75%, having already eased significantly in last few months. So, if investors wait for rate cut to invest, it may be too late for them. Also, with corporate credit picking up, investing in corporate bond funds for a period of 3-5 years can also serve the investor well. Investors having a long term investment horizon and appropriate risk appetite can also invest in gilt funds", he continues. <h2>Dont exit the markets yet </h2>Though short-term biases of FII may continue towards Chinese markets keeping pressure on the equity markets, the resilient domestic flows can defy deep corrections in the equity markets despite high valuations. The markets may trend positive with subsequent rate cuts by the US Fed later this year. Hence, it wont be advisable to completely exit the equity markets during these times, notes Avnish Jain, Head - Fixed Income, Canara Robeco Mutual Fund Jain advises to take a buy on dips approach towards the stock markets i.e. adding quality stocks to your portfolio during times of market downturn. Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities says that the current market texture is volatile, hence level based trading would be the ideal strategy for the day traders. "For the bulls now, 25,050/81,700 would be the key level to watch out. Above the same market could retest the level of 25,200-25,225/82,000-82,300. On the flip side, 24,900/81,200 would be the key support zone for the traders. Below the same, the selling pressure is likely to accelerate. Below the same, market could slip till 24,800-24,780/81,000-80,700", explains Chouhan. <h2>Time to buy a home? Maybe! </h2>No rate cut can spell some good news for homebuyers who are looking to get their hands on real estate during the festive season. Even as home loan rates remain steady as of now, homebuyers may have to wait until December or beyond to get any tangible relief in their home loan EMIs. Vimal Nadar, Head of Research, Colliers India explains that a change in stance from “withdrawal of accommodation” to “neutral” indicates its clear direction for a possible reduction in interest rates in the foreseeable future. This ongoing stability in repo rate should provide a significant thrust to residential real estate during these festive months as home loan interest rates are likely to remain steady. "Typically, Q4, marked by higher inclination of homebuyers to wrap-up property purchases during the auspicious period combined with instantaneous liquidity benefit aided by developers offering attractive discounts, has historically provided the final push to housing sales across the major markets in the country", he added.

RBI leaves repo rate unchanged. What does this mean for you?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The postelection rally staggered on Tuesday as bond yields spiked.</li><li>Some parts of the Trump trade continued to gain, such as bitcoin and the US dollar.</li></ul>The five-day election rally sputtered on Tuesday as the market turned its attention toward incoming economic data.Some parts of the Trump trade maintained momentum, with crypto and FX traders cheering on the president-elect's policies. But while <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">bitcoin</a> and the US dollar continued to push higher, equity indexes retreated <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-11/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates?srnd=phx-markets">Monday's closing highs</a>.The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost nearly 350 points after hitting a record high over 44,000 in the previous session. The post-election rally in financials and small-caps also stumbled.Hurting the Trump bump on Tuesday was the surge in bond yields. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked aggressively, surging 13 basis points. The sharp rise comes a day ahead of October's consumer inflation report. Wall Street is eyeing for any upside price surprise, which could unwind interest rate cut outlooks.Economists expect a 2.5% year-over-year jump in Wednesday's CPI data, compared to a rise of 2.4% in the prior month."The inflation numbers might tick up a little this week as some areas like transportation, consumer durables, and rent have been harder to get under control. After steady progress, we might be leveling off, but the Fed has made progress toward their target," said Scott Helfstein, Global X head of investment strategy. "There is no reason to believe that one month of data will change the Fed strategy, and a 25 bp cut in December remains the base case."Still, the market indicates a 37.9% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady next month. Trump's policies are expected to have a potentially inflationary impact, and the market is debating whether interest rates will remain higher for longer as the Fed is again forced to confront rising prices."Inflation is not tamed," Apollo's co-president Scott Kleinman told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-11-12/apollo-s-scott-kleinman-says-inflation-is-not-tamed-video">Bloomberg TV</a>. "The Fed can say what it wants. You just have to open your eyes and look around."Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Tuesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,983.99, down 0.29% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,910.98, down 0.86% (-382.15 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 19,281.40, down 0.09% </li></ul>Here's what else happened today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-trump-rally-economy-interest-rates-inflation-david-rosenberg-2024-11?_gl=1*1p9ha58*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTQ0MTEzMi44MjQuMS4xNzMxNDQyODAzLjYwLjAuMA..">The postelection rally is disconnected from fundamentals,</a> David Rosenberg said.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/dogecoin-price-market-value-ford-crypto-boom-trump-elon-musk-2024-11?_gl=1*1r8abo1*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTQ0MTEzMi44MjQuMS4xNzMxNDQyODYzLjYwLjAuMA..">Dogecoin is worth more than Ford as Trump's win propels total crypto market cap to $3 trillion.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-elon-musk-political-influence-trump-ai-autonomous-2024-11?_gl=1*1nao6vg*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTQ0MTEzMi44MjQuMS4xNzMxNDQyOTU2LjYwLjAuMA..">Tesla stock could soar 50% amid Elon Musk's new political influence</a>, Morgan Stanley says.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/hertz-stock-price-tesla-ev-fleet-q3-earnings-profit-revenue-2024-11?_gl=1*1phxwrx*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTQ0MTEzMi44MjQuMS4xNzMxNDQzMDMyLjU4LjAuMA..">Hertz's failed Tesla bet weighs down its earnings, tanking shares in the car rental company.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-policies-economy-recession-inflation-stock-market-outlook-nouriel-roubini-2024-11">"Dr. Doom" Nouriel Roubini warns of stagflation under Trump's policies.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil inched up 0.21% to $68.18 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, increased by 0.17% to $71.95 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> was shed 0.5% hitting $2,604.7 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield spiked 13 basis points to 4.441%</li></ul><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> rose 2.79% to $89,552.

Stock market today: Election rally stumbles as bond yields spike ahead of key inflation data

<keyword id="21354159" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-government-bonds" source="keywords">Indian Government Bonds</keyword> are set to be included in the JP Morgan Government Bond Index, <keyword id="20036608" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Emerging-Market" source="keywords">Emerging Market</keyword> (GBI-EM) from June 28. The inclusion will take place over a period of 10 months starting June 28, 2024, through to March 31, 2025. India will have a 1% weightage in the <keyword id="19967624" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="JPMorgan" source="keywords">JPMorgan</keyword> Emerging Market (EM) Bond index, which will gradually rise to 10% over a 10-month period, at an inclusion rate of about 1% weight per month. The inclusion is estimated to bring $20-25 billion of inflows into the Indian bond market. However, India's index-eligible bonds have already attracted $10 billion since the inclusion was announced in September last year. On September 21, 2023, Global index provider JPMorgan announced that it would include Indian government's bonds in its emerging market indices. Only Indian government bonds issued by the Reserve Bank of India (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) under the <keyword id="12313402" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Fully-Accessible-Route" source="Orion">Fully Accessible Route</keyword> (FAR) will be included in the indices. All FAR-designated IGBs maturing after December 31, 2026, will be eligible to be included in the JPMorgan Emerging Market (EM) Bond index. In the post-monetary policy press conference on June 7, RBI Governor <keyword id="6359111" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Shaktikanta-Das" source="Orion">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> said the central bank is not worried about the big <keyword id="20072947" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-fund-inflows" source="keywords">foreign fund inflows</keyword> from global bond inclusion. "The RBI has a number of instrumentalities to manage the flows. We have managed it in the past and we will manage it in future also. No worries on that," Das said. Experts believe the index inclusion-related heavy flows is likely to boost demand for Indian government securities in the current fiscal, once short-term liquidity issues in certain papers get sorted. Vishal Gupta, Co-founder of IndiaBonds.com says the inclusion of Indian government bonds in JP Morgan Index is a watershed moment for the <keyword id="22201110" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fixed-income-markets" source="keywords">fixed-income markets</keyword> in India. "This compulsorily puts Indian bond markets on the radar of global bond investors and although initial investments are supposed to be to the tune of $25-30 billion, index inclusion paves the way for this number to keep growing in the next few years," said Vishal Gupta. Gupta further added that it is important to grow the investor base for any market, and index inclusion helps in expanding the number of players, which further benefits everyone in the form of additional market liquidity. "Global investors have been looking to allocate capital to emerging markets given their reluctance to invest in other large countries like Russia or China in the past couple of years. Hence, the timing of this index inclusion is also almost perfect. I reckon investments will start via government bonds initially, but filter into AAA to lower credit ratings as well in the years to come", he continued.

Indian government bonds to be included JP Morgan Govt bond Index from June 28

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Asset Management are becoming a bit less bullish.</li><li>Although the US economic outlook is strong, returns may have been pulled forward.</li></ul>A pair of Wall Street juggernauts are getting slightly more skeptical about stocks and bonds, but a compelling investment opportunity may be hiding in plain sight.<div type="image" title="GS 10-year projection" height="1088" width="1508" msid="114505224" hostid="261" sizebytes="75402"></div>Goldman Sachs stole headlines recently by forecasting that <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-future-returns-decade-forecast-goldman-sachs-2024-10">US equities will only rise 3% a year in the next decade</a>, down from an average annual gain of 13% in the prior 10 years. The firm's rationale is based on a more challenging backdrop characterized by lofty valuations, an unusually high concentration in the market's biggest stocks, increased recession risk, lower profits, and elevated interest rates.<div type="image" title="GS 10-year projection baseline" height="742" width="1010" msid="114505227" hostid="261" sizebytes="35320"></div>Top minds at JPMorgan Asset Management (JPMAM) agree that stocks might not post the returns that investors have come to expect, though they're not nearly as pessimistic.The firm, which manages $3.5 trillion in assets, expects US large-cap equities to appreciate by 6.7% a year in the next 10 to 15 years, according to its yearly long-term capital market assumptions report released on October 21. For reference, JPMAM thinks global stocks will rise between 7.2% and 8.1% a year in that same span.A mid-single-digit annual gain for US large caps is nothing to sneeze at, though it would be down substantially from <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-economy-growth-outlook-recession-risk-inflation-jpmorgan-2022-11">7.9% two years ago</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-stocks-bonds-real-estate-outlook-strategy-jpmorgan-2023-10">7% last year</a>.There's a simple explanation for that marginally more tepid outlook: US stocks have been on a tear. And while <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-prediction-2025-how-to-invest-rally-trader-2024-10">some bulls are emboldened</a> by the S&amp;P 500's excellent track record, JPMAM strategists worry that the market has pulled forward future gains."Near the bottom of all these pages, we put a little statement saying, "Past performance is not indicative of future returns.' That's actually not true," said David Kelly, JPMAM's chief global market strategist, at a press conference about the report. "Past great performance is indicative of a more difficult environment going forward."The S&amp;P 500 is on pace to rise by at least 10% <a target="_blank" href="https://www.macrotrends.net/2526/sp-500-historical-annual-returns">for the fifth time since 2018</a> and the 11th time since the financial crisis, including what's been a 22.7% gain in 2024. That strength, combined with already-rich valuations, led JPMAM to cut its long-term projection for US large caps.<div type="image" title="JPMAM valuations" height="926" width="1038" msid="114505230" hostid="261" sizebytes="32120"></div>However, Kelly said the downward shift was gradual since the economic growth outlook is promising. The firm is calling for US real GDP of 2% in the long term, which is the highest mark since the pandemic, along with 2.4% inflation, which is down for the third consecutive year."The very good news is that we think that the foundations for the US economy and the global economy look better than they did a year ago," Kelly said. "We got through some of our more significant worries on inflation; economic growth looks pretty solid."<div type="image" title="JPMAM US GDP forecast" height="828" width="1032" msid="114505215" hostid="261" sizebytes="15222"></div><h2 id="ee7765b8-415d-46ac-862a-90df145c611f">As the 60-40 portfolio loses steam, real estate can take the baton</h2>Lower stock returns are expected to drag down the traditional 60-40 stock-bond portfolio, which JPMAM now says should fetch 6.4% a year for the next decade or so.That forecast is down from 7% last year and 7.2% heading into 2023, though it's higher than the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/alternative-investing-strategy-60-40-portfolio-bitcoin-outlook-inflation-jpmorgan-2021-11">4.3% mark in late 2021</a>, where US large caps were only expected to climb 4.1% a year in the long term after an outstanding rebound from the early pandemic lows.Bonds, which make up the second half of that calculus, have a solid but unremarkable outlook.US bonds broadly are expected to return 4.6% in the long term — down from 5.1% last year and the same as two years ago — while the US 10-year Treasury note is projected to fetch 4.2%, versus 4.6% last year and 4% two years ago. Meanwhile, high-yield bonds should deliver a 6.1% gain in the long term, compared to 6.5% last year and 6.8% two years ago.After accounting for inflation, JPMAM expects the standard 60-40 portfolio to return less than 5% in the long term, and the same is true of large-cap stocks and bonds. While such gains may be satisfactory for some, it would take over 16 years for an investor to double their money.Those looking for a more compelling investment opportunity should consider real estate, according to JPMAM. Unlike stocks and bonds, the firm's projected returns for that asset class are steadily rising, from 5.7% two years ago to 7.5% in late 2023 to 8.1% this year.US core real estate is projected to yield close to 6%, up from just over 4% a few years ago and well above the 10-year's yield of 4.2%. Real estate isn't cheap based on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capitalizationrate.asp">capitalization rates</a>, which measure how much money a property generates relative to its market value, but JPMAM believes the asset class is an exceptional value relative to other yield-generating investments.<div type="image" title="Real estate vs 10-year yield" height="924" width="1032" msid="114505221" hostid="261" sizebytes="34048"></div>"If you were to look at this on a spread basis, the cap-rates spread would tell you that real estate looks a little bit expensive," said David Lebovitz, a global market strategist for JPMAM, at the conference. "But if you look at the all-in yield and think of that as your valuation and your starting point, we're looking at a generational opportunity."Monica Issar, JPMorgan Private Bank's global head of multi-asset and portfolio solutions, echoed that sentiment."This is absolutely the largest generational opportunity to invest in real estate in a long time," Issar said at the conference.Commercial real estate looks especially compelling, Issar said. Unlike residential real estate, which has held up well in recent years — as evidenced by <a target="_blank" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS">remarkably resilient home prices</a> despite <a target="_blank" href="https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms">still-elevated mortgage rates</a> — office buildings have struggled to regain their value since the pandemic ushered in a new era of remote work for millions of Americans.As companies reduced their physical presence or eschewed offices altogether, demand for commercial spaces has taken a massive hit. However, Issar thinks that risk is reflected in prices."All we've been reading about and all we've been seeing is price declines and discussions about empty buildings," Issar said. "This is a time for investors to step in, move into attractive pricing, move into asset classes like non-core real estate."Investors can bet on a commercial real estate rebound by working with <a target="_blank" href="https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/institutional/investment-strategies/alternatives/real-estate/">JPMAM's team</a>, or on their own through publicly traded real estate investment trusts (REITs). JPMAM didn't outline any specific investments to make, but Issar threw out a few ideas to help investors brainstorm."Think of multifamily housing; think of student housing around campuses; think of cell towers and data centers," Issar said. "That is the modernization of the new direct real estate that is going to be really attractive for investors in the future."

'Generational opportunity': Invest in real estate as stock and bond returns shrink, according to $3.5 trillion JPMorgan Asset Management

<keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword> requires an investment support of USD 1.4 trillion — an average of USD 28 billion per year — to become a net-zero economy by 2070 and raising <keyword id="20260327" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-resources" source="keywords">financial resources</keyword> for adaptation and mitigation action of this scale is an "unprecedented challenge", according to the <keyword id="20613906" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Economic-Survey" source="keywords">Economic Survey</keyword> 2023-24 tabled in Parliament on Monday. Reaching net zero means achieving a balance between greenhouse gas emissions and the amount of these gases removed from the atmosphere by either natural processes, such as photosynthesis, or by other methods of carbon capture and storage. The consolidated report on the state of the economy in the previous year said India's climate action has been largely financed through domestic resources and the flow of international finance has been "very limited". Citing the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) data, the report said bridging the "substantial funding gap" necessitates allocating 2.5 per cent of India's annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to <keyword id="20018880" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="green-finance" source="keywords">green finance</keyword>. "Preliminary estimates indicate that the aggregate investment support required by India to achieve its 2070 net-zero target will be USD 1.4 trillion at an average of USD 28 billion per year. Raising financial resources for <keyword id="19907392" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-change" source="keywords">climate change</keyword> adaptation and mitigation actions of this scale is an unprecedented challenge," the document read. A 2022 report by the Climate Policy Initiative found that domestic sources accounted for the majority of green finance in India, at 87 per cent and 83 per cent in financial years 2019 and 2020 respectively. While international sources are increasing (from 13 per cent in FY 2019 to 17 per cent in FY 2020), the economic survey said they are still insufficient to meet India's net-zero target. "Mobilising substantial capital from traditional sources presents multifaceted challenges in emerging economies like India. The perceived sovereign risks associated with emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) and the capital-intensive nature of such projects, coupled with lengthy gestation periods and evolving regulatory frameworks, can create misalignment between investor expectations and project timelines," the government said. The economic survey also noted that the flows of global capital to <keyword id="20200084" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="developing-countries" source="keywords">developing countries</keyword> have been impeded by high costs of capital. Despite securing a good rating on its green-bond framework, Indian sovereign <keyword id="20177085" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="green-bonds" source="keywords">green bonds</keyword> have hardly received any "greenium" from private investors. It is more a "wall of capital" than a "flood of capital" that is waiting to fund energy transition in EMDEs. It is just not mobile. All of these together have severely hampered the flow of finance for green-transition projects, the survey said. "Greenium" or green premium refers to the savings an issuer of a green bond realises on the associated coupon payment because the bond is green. Financial support to help middle-income and poor countries fight climate change will be at the centre of this year's UN climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, where the world will reach the deadline to agree on the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) -- the new amount developed nations must mobilise every year starting 2025 to support climate action in developing countries. But achieving consensus will not be easy, given the disappointing progress made on major conflict points at the mid-year UN climate talks in Bonn, Germany. At the 2009 UN climate conference in Copenhagen, rich nations pledged to provide USD 100 billion annually from 2020 to help developing countries mitigate and adapt to climate change. However, delays in achieving this goal have eroded trust between developed and developing nations and have been a continual source of contention during annual climate negotiations. In May, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) claimed that developed countries had met the long-standing USD 100 billion-a-year promise by providing nearly USD 116 billion in <keyword id="20000757" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-finance" source="keywords">climate finance</keyword> to developing countries in 2022, with nearly 70 per cent of the money given in the form of loans. However, international non-profit organisation Oxfam last week said climate finance provided by rich countries in 2022 totalled no more than USD 35 billion. Developing nations argue that they cannot be expected to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions faster if developed countries -- historically responsible for climate change -- do not provide enhanced financial support. Rich countries are now expected to raise more than USD 100 billion, with developing countries, including India, demanding trillions of dollars to tackle climate change.

Raising massive financial resources for net-zero goal unprecedented challenge: Economic Survey

<ul><li>The Indian economy is expected to grow at over 7% rate in upcoming years</li><li>Fiscal deficit down to 6.4% of <keyword id="19904293" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP" source="keywords">GDP</keyword> in FY24</li><li>Current Account Deficit (CAD) down to 0.7% of GDP </li></ul>With the <keyword id="19908389" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Union-Budget" source="keywords">Union Budget</keyword> 2024 to be presented tomorrow, Finance Minister <keyword id="19916618" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nirmala-Sitharaman" source="keywords">Nirmala Sitharaman</keyword> is presenting the <keyword id="20613906" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Economic-Survey" source="keywords">Economic Survey</keyword> in the parliament today. Think of the <keyword id="6354872" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-survey" source="Orion">Economic Survey</keyword> as a report card of the country's economic performance over the past year, along with inputs and outlook for the coming fiscal year. Here are some crucial highlights from the Economic Survey 2023-24: <h2>Macro-economic indicators</h2>Per the World Economic Outlook in April, the <keyword id="19948494" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-economic-growth" source="keywords">global economic growth</keyword> was pegged at 3.2% in 2023. In contrast, <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>'s real GDP grew by 8.2% in FY24, staying above the 8% mark for 3 out of 4 quarters in FY24. Gross Fixed Capital Formation, or investments in long-term, value-generating fixed assets increased by 9% real terms in 2023-24. The government trimmed down fiscal deficit trimmed down from 6.4% of GDP in FY23 to 5.6% of GDP in FY24.The current account deficit, which indicates that the country is a net importer rather than being an exporter, came down to 0.7% of GDP in FY24, as opposed to 2% of GDP in FY23. While retail inflation averaged at 6.7% in FY23, it dropped down to 5.4% in FY24 During FY24, primary markets saw capital formation, or facilitated raising funds worth Rs 10.9 lakh crore, which makes up for around 29% of the gross fixed capital formation. India's market capitalization to GDP ratio is the fifth largest in the world. <h2>Inflationary Trends </h2>Core inflation eased down to 9-year lows, while core goods inflation came down to a 4-year low. However, food inflation continued to stay high, inching up to 7.5% in FY24, as opposed to 6.6% in FY23. This was largely because of adverse weather conditions, which caused a spike in onion and tomato prices and impacted kharif crop production. Going ahead, RBI's short-term outlook remains positive. Assuming a normal monsoon and no extraordinary policy or geopolitical shocks, the inflation is estimated to drop to 4.5% in FY25, and further down to 4.1% in FY26. These are in line with IMF's inflation forecasts, which stand at 4.6% for 2024 and 4.2% for 2025. <h2>Export-Import trends</h2>India's service exports jumped by 4.9% to $341.1 billion in FY24, driven mainly by IT and software services. Apart from being the top remittance recipient globally, with remittances worth $120 billion in 2023, the country also witnessed investment inflows from foreign investors. As of March 2024, India's forex reserves were sufficient to cover over 10 months of projected imports in FY25, and about 98% of all its external debt. The country's external debt to GDP ratio has been largely consistent over the years, standing at 18.7% of the GDP as of March 2024. <h2>Key growth areas to look out for in FY25 </h2>Essential to adopt bottom-up reform approach, with special short to medium term emphasis on structural changes, job and skill creation, addressing challenges faced by MSMEs, managing India's transition towards a green, clean economy, deepening the country's nascent bond market and laying greater stress on tackling quality of health, especially amongst young Indians. Deliberate focus needed on boosting private investment, expanding India's MSMEs, tapping into the potential of India's agriculture sector, manage India's green transition, urgently bridge the employment-education gap and build capacity of states to sustain and complement India's growth. In the medium term, the country's economy is expected to grow at a rate of over 7%.

Economic Survey 2024: GDP grew by 8.2%, to sustain 7%+ growth momentum, fiscal deficit down to 6.4% of GDP

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US could be sinking into a recession by the fourth quarter, Bill Gross said.</li><li>The legendary investor pointed to troublesome economic data &amp; banking turmoil seen earlier this year.</li></ul>The US economy may be teetering into a recession, and indicators of coming weakness could soon be flashing red, according to "Bond King" Bill Gross.The legendary fixed income investor and former PIMCO co-founder warned the US was likely sinking into a downturn in a recent post on X. There are signs that slowdown could come sooner than expected, Gross added in an interview with CNBC on Thursday, noting that expectations for GDP growth from the Atlanta Fed are below 1.5% for the current quarter, despite a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gdp-recession-outlook-economy-gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-2023-10">hot 4.9% growth recorded over the third quarter</a>."We will see it in the fourth quarter," Gross said of a GDP slowdown. "We're probably going to see it officially … a number that's positive, but really, in terms of employment, and in terms of jobs, in terms of weakness in many of the indicators, we're going to see November and December be below the line."That's contrary to what other Wall Street commentators have been saying, as they point to the resilience of the economy and the likelihood that the US avoids a recession this year. Inflation has cooled dramatically from its highs of over 9% in the summer of 2022 and the job market has been strong through 2023. But headwinds have gotten stronger. Bond yields soared last month to a 16-year-high as investors fret over the impact of rates staying higher for longer. Meanwhile, regional banks have been "devastated" this year since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the rise of Treasury yields at the long-dated end of the yield curve, Gross said. "Usually that's indicative of some serious problems in terms of the economy," he added.Meanwhile, consumer loan delinquency rates are starting to tick higher. A record number of subprime borrowers are behind on their auto loan payments by at least 60 days, according to Fitch Ratings data."For me, that indicates the consumer is falling behind in terms of their ability to pay. And of course, the US economy is 70% based on consumer spending," Gross said.The economy also looks to be slowing down as it heads into year-end. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-unemployment-rate-recession-outlook-labor-market-wages-federal-reserve-2023-11">The economy added just 150,000 jobs in October</a>, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, below expectations for 180,000.Top forecasters have warned that the risk of a mild recession next year can't be written off. A synchronized global <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/next-recession-outlook-us-economy-boil-frog-fed-inflation-jpmorgan-2023-6#:~:text=The%20US%20is%20most%20likely,recession%20altogether%2C%20the%20bank%20estimated.">downturn is the most likely scenario in 2024</a>, JPMorgan strategists previously said, estimating that the US only had a 23% chance of avoiding it.

'Bond King' Bill Gross says the US economy headed for a recession as more indicators flash in the 4th quarter

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The stock market crashed Monday, with the Nasdaq 100 dropping nearly 6%.</li><li>The decline began last week after poor earnings reports and a weak July jobs report.</li></ul>US stocks crashed on Monday, with the Nasdaq shedding nearly 6% as the global market rout that kicked off late last week accelerated.The Nasdaq Composite plunged and the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 1,000 points in Monday morning trading, with the tech-heavy index falling further into correction territory.The stock market decline started last week after <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/intel-stock-price-layoffs-weak-guidance-missed-analyst-estimates-semiconductors-2024-8">worrying earnings reports from Amazon and Intel</a> and a big miss in July nonfarm payrolls sparked concerns of a potential recession.Since Thursday, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> is down about 7% while the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_100">Nasdaq 100</a> is down 9%.The losses accelerated on Monday after Japan's stock market experienced <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/markets-japan-rate-hike-yen-fx-carry-trade-stock-futures-2024-8">its worst decline since the Black Monday crash in 1987,</a> falling 12%.A surprise interest-rate hike of 15 basis points by the Bank of Japan last week led to an unwind of the wildly popular Yen carry trade, which helped accelerate the recent stock market losses.All of these factors, combined with the idea that the Federal Reserve missed its chance to cut interest rates at its meeting last week, added to investor concerns that an economic recession is near."Markets are clearly nervous about the divergent paths central banks are taking, leading to lots of volatility," Jamie Cox, Managing Partner for Harris Financial Group, said Monday. "Couple that with a potential escalation of hostilities in the Middle East and a Presidential election cycle that is rife was craziness, things are ripe for negativity."Further concerns on the radar this week included Berkshire Hathaway's second-quarter earnings report, which revealed that Warren Buffetts' conglomerate<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/berkshire-hathaway-apple-stake-second-quarter-earnings-report-2024-8#:~:text=Warren%20Buffett's%20Berkshire%20Hathaway%20is,by%20nearly%2050%25%20last%20quarter."> cut its massive Apple stake by about 50%.</a>Berkshire Hathaway now holds a record $277 billion in cash, leading to some investors worrying that Buffett has soured on the stock market.In another sign of the risk-off sentiment gripping markets, bitcoin tumbed 19% since Friday, crashing below $50,000."At some stage, buyers will come back in to take advantage of 'knock-down' prices. But there's no sign that the major indices have stabilized yet. The bigger question is whether this bloodletting will prove sufficient to provide a basis for a resumption of the stock market rally, and ultimately fresh record highs. The alternative is that the top is in, and investors will have to adapt their outlook, and strategies, accordingly," FCA senior market analyst David Morrison said.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Monday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,171.35, down 3.28% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 38,659.97, down 2.71% (-1,077 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 16,088.48, down 4.1%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-ai-nvidia-us-bockade-smuggling-2024-8">Nvidia chips used to power advanced AI are finding their way to the Chinese military despite a US blockade.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-boom-faces-crash-landing-stock-market-selloff-nvidia-microsoft-2024-8">The sell-off in technology stocks may herald the long-awaited AI reckoning.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil fell 0.97% to $72.81 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, declined 0.90% to $76.12 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> was lower by 1.51% to $2,432.40 per ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 9 basis points to 3.70%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> plunged 14.2% to $49,846.</li></ul>

You Searched For "global bond indices" and got 9 results

Indian markets under pressure as global rate cuts stir uncertainty, new report says

BI India Bureau

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Stock market today: Election rally stumbles as bond yields spike ahead of key inflation data

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'Generational opportunity': Invest in real estate as stock and bond returns shrink, according to $3.5 trillion JPMorgan Asset Management

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Raising massive financial resources for net-zero goal unprecedented challenge: Economic Survey

PTI

Economic Survey 2024: GDP grew by 8.2%, to sustain 7%+ growth momentum, fiscal deficit down to 6.4% of GDP

Ira Alok Puranik

'Bond King' Bill Gross says the US economy headed for a recession as more indicators flash in the 4th quarter

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Dow plunges more than 1,000 points as global stock rout deepens on recession fear

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