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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Spain is looking to immigrants to help boost its economy.</li><li>Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has said migration is crucial for the country's prosperity.</li></ul>Spain is looking to immigrants to help boost its economy and fill gaps in its workforce.Speaking to parliament on Wednesday, Spanish Prime Minister <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZqbRYeyo4cs">Pedro Sánchez</a> promoted migration as a means of fueling prosperity in the country, arguing that it offered an effective way of tackling what he called a "demographic challenge."Spain's economy and labor market face significant challenges from an aging population and low birth rate.Eurostat data put Spain's birth rate at 1.16 births per woman in 2022, the second-lowest in the EU, while the Spanish central bank has said that population aging is "one of the greatest structural challenges facing the Spanish economy."Sánchez said that migration may offer the answer to those problems, saying it had historically been one of "the great drivers of the development of nations.""Spain needs to choose between being an open and prosperous country or a closed, poor country," he added.Sánchez also used his speech to dispel certain myths and "disinformation" about immigrants, saying that "hatred and xenophobia have been — and are — the greatest destroyer of nations.""The reality, ladies and gentlemen, is that foreigners are neither better nor worse than us. They are equal. They are people with their virtues, their defects, their dreams, and their fears," he said.It comes as other EU members have sought to clamp down on immigration.Germany has tightened border controls to tackle irregular migration, while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.government.se/government-policy/swedens-new-migration-policy/">Sweden</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/17/doctors-criticise-finlands-proposal-to-withhold-healthcare-for-migrants">Finland</a> have both announced anti-immigration plans.In the US, the run-up to the presidential election has also seen immigration come under the spotlight.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-mass-deportation-immigraiton-plan-federal-reserve-inflation-2024-9">Former President Donald Trump</a> has drawn particular attention to the issue, often using inflammatory rhetoric to describe immigrants.Trump has also vowed to enact the "largest domestic deportation in American history" should he be elected in November.

Spain is betting on immigrants to boost its economy 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump's policies may impact legal immigrants in tech, sparking fears of a worker shortage.</li><li>In his last term, Trump paused some work visa programs used by tech firms to hire skilled talent.</li></ul>Many in the tech industry are concerned that President Donald Trump will make it harder to hire immigrants, sapping an important source of technical talent for the sector."If the backlash against immigrants impacts the flow of really talented people into the country, that's probably not good for us overall," said Michael Greeley, a general partner at Flare Capital Partners, a healthcare technology investor.Trump's election win could lead to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-harris-immigration-jobs-arizona-economy-mass-deportation-employment-wages-2024-10">mass deportations of </a><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-deportation-immigration-plan-impact-recession-risk-inflation-stagflation-labor-2024-6">undocumented immigrants.</a> Trump's campaign has also promised to complete the southern border wall and revive the "<a target="_blank" href="https://time.com/7022828/trump-travel-ban-refugees-gaza/">famous</a> travel ban," which restricted people from countries that were predominately Muslim to enter the US. This order <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jan/30/donald-trump-travel-ban-tech-workers-muslim-immigration">left many tech workers</a> stranded outside of the US in 2017.What's less understood is how the president-elect will shape a legal immigration system that pipes high-skilled workers from outside the US into coveted tech jobs.It's hard to estimate the number of legal immigrants working in the tech sector due to the variety of visa types available to them. The H-1B visa program is the nation's largest temporary work visa program, with over 600,000 workers across 50,000 employers. According to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/reports/OLA_Signed_H-1B_Characteristics_Congressional_Report_FY2023.pdf">USCIS data</a>, the majority of petitions approved in the previous fiscal year, 65%, went to workers in computer-related roles.The new year should bring clarity on H-1Bs, said Hiba Mona Anver, a Silicon Valley-based immigration attorney who works with tech startups. In the meantime, she and other attorneys say they're getting on the phone with clients."I wouldn't go as far as to say that I'm sensing anxiety per se," Anver said, but there is "a sense of the need to prepare.""Trump doesn't have a great track record of supporting the visas that are critical to startup founders and early employees who want to build companies in the US," said Jenny Fielding, cofounder and managing partner of Everywhere Ventures, which invests globally.In his first term, Trump fashioned himself as the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.uscis.gov/archive/buy-american-and-hire-american-putting-american-workers-first">"Buy American, Hire American"</a> president. He signed an executive order to suspend some temporary work visas like the H-1B for skilled workers, a move that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/silicon-valley-to-feel-impact-trumps-h-1b-visa-order-2020-6">hit tech hardest</a>. His administration saw an increase of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/more-h-1b-visa-applications-rejected-under-trump-2019-2">denial rates</a> for visa applications and more requests for evidence seeking further proof of workers' eligibility."From 2016 to 2020, the average denial rate for H1-B visas was over 17%, compared to just 3.2% under President Biden," said Palo Alto-based immigration attorney Sophie Alcorn.Under stricter immigration laws, the tech industry could snap back to a pandemic-era worker shortage, especially for companies at the frontier. Experts told Business Insider the sector <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tech-workers-real-winners-ai-talent-war-pay-2024-7">is already understaffed</a>, and recruiting for artificial intelligence skills is particularly tough as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inside-the-ai-hiring-frenzy-big-tech-talent-war-2024-3">every company scrambles to hire workers</a> capable of leading them into the future.Anna Rathbun, chief investment officer of CBIZ, a Cleveland-based financial advisory, previously told Business Insider, "You shouldn't ban exports on chips and then completely export the talented labor. That makes no sense."Aaron Levie, the chief executive of Box and one of Silicon Valley's senior statesmen, offered hope that Elon Musk, at Trump's side, could bring a fresh approach to the issue."Our high skilled immigration system is frozen in time and not responsive to the market," Levie <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/levie/status/1854733432410325002">posted</a> on social media site X. "We have far more demand for the top talent to work for and start companies here than we let in. It's a bipartisan issue that politicians don't touch. Someone like Elon finally could do it."Musk, a strong supporter of Trump and who <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-could-help-deregulate-tech-amid-a-trump-victory-2024-11">could be considered for a role</a> in the administration, replied, "I agree."The AI skills gap is so severe that tech firms are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tech-companies-raid-top-university-campuses-rare-artificial-intelligence-talent-2023-4">scouring university programs</a>, enticing students with six-figure salaries and resources far beyond what academia can offer.In podcast interviews over the years, Trump has also discussed the importance of attracting the best and brightest. He even suggested during an appearance on the tech-favorite podcast "All-In" in June that non-US students who graduate from US colleges <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-foreign-college-graduates-should-automatically-get-green-cards-2024-06-20/">should get green cards</a>.There could be reasons for optimism for the tech industry given newer figures in Trump's orbit, Alcorn noted. Vice President-elect JD Vance has a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jd-vance-venture-capital-opioid-nonprofit-tech-record-ohio-senate-2021-8">venture capital background</a>, and Musk is an immigrant himself <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/28/us/elon-musk-immigration-washington-post-cec/index.html">who has said</a> he was on an H1-B visa previously.<div type="image" title="Elon Musk and Donald Trump shake hands" height="683" width="911" msid="115143545" hostid="261" sizebytes="27914"></div>Chris Farmer, founder of SignalFire, an early-stage investor, said tech elites like Vance and Musk will "have his ear" on setting a new standard for high-skilled immigration, though for how long is uncertain.The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.One visa holder told Business Insider she expects H-1Bs will become more difficult to obtain under Trump.Shin Yi Chong, who received her H1-B visa in 2019, was recently laid off from her tech job as a product manager. After living in the US for roughly a decade, she said she now has weeks to find a new job or face deportation."Just seeing historical data from what happened when Trump was in office the last time," she said, "I don't foresee it changing in a positive direction."Shubhangi Goel and Riddhi Kanetkar contributed reporting.

Silicon Valley is on edge as Trump's immigration policy sparks fears of a high-tech talent shortage

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump has pledged to lead a mass deportation campaign once elected.</li><li>That would create a major labor crunch for homebuilders, driving wages and costs higher.</li></ul>Donald Trump's vow to crack down on immigration doesn't bode well for priced-out homebuyers.The Republican presidential candidate has promised to lead the largest deportation campaign in US history if reelected. By one estimate, that could involve deporting up to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-deportation-immigration-plan-impact-recession-risk-inflation-stagflation-labor-2024-6">1.2 million</a> people, though as many <a target="_blank" href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/trump-vs-harris-immigration-future-policy-proposals#_ftn1">11 million undocumented residents</a> live in the country.While there's room to debate the plan's feasibility, what's certain is that a sudden drain of the immigrant workforce could significantly hinder construction in the US, igniting deeper unaffordability for home market buyers.<h3 id="a76ec574-ba23-4a94-92de-608c0047e53f">A critical homebuilder workforce</h3>"If we did see mass deportations, I do think it would have a chilling effect on the labor market," Jim Tobin, CEO of the National Association of Home Builders, told Business Insider.He said immigrants are a critical component of the industry, as they help relieve a serious shortage of skilled labor. Foreign-born construction workers, who make up as much as a third of the sector's labor force, are often concentrated in specific trades required to build a home, such as plasterers and drywall installers, the Home Builders Institute <a target="_blank" href="https://hbi.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Spring-2024-CLMR-HBI-NAHB-FINAL.pdf">reported</a>."We consistently see government data showing that we are anywhere between 200,000 to 400,000 workers short in our industry and that lack of skilled labor slows down the pace of construction, drives up labor costs, and ultimately leads to higher home prices, and a slower pace of home building," Tobin said.A <a target="_blank" href="https://gwbushcenter.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/Immigrants-and-Opp-3.pdf">2022 George W. Bush Institute</a> study found that US metros with the highest immigrant population growth scored the lowest construction costs.Without the supply of these workers, history suggests housing costs are likely to rise.According to a <a target="_blank" href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4729511">research paper</a> released earlier this year, home prices were found to rise in counties impacted by an immigration crackdown that spanned from late 2008 to 2014. The US "Secure Communities" program led to the deportation of over 300,000 undocumented immigrants in that time period, it cited.Given the pace of homebuilding, price effects were muted for two years after enforcement began, the study said. However, three years later, the average new construction property became 17% more expensive among tracked counties compared to the baseline.That translates to a $57,300 jump compared to the average property price before the program's implementation."Three years after SC rollout, the average county has foregone the equivalent of an entire year's worth of additional residential construction: 2,423 fewer buildings are permitted, and 1,997 fewer newly constructed homes enter the market," the authors wrote.Considering how wide-sweeping the Trump campaign's deportation effort could be, experts told BI that homebuilders would likely resort to wage hikes to attract domestic workers. These could be significant, given that the construction industry would be competing against other immigrant-dependent sectors.According to Tobin, mass deportation would also require the industry to redouble its efforts in attracting new domestic interest in the trades. "Whether that's kids coming out of out of high school, or adults that are looking for a new career, transitioning military that are coming out of the service. We would have to look at previously incarcerated."<h3 id="2780f5cd-9b64-4a83-a2ce-4c3dee812acf">What about demand?</h3>Trump's campaign has implied that cracking down on immigration will help ease housing unaffordability by effectively removing one source of demand. It's a talking point recently made by Vice President candidate JD Vance, who blamed "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jd-vance-debate-immigration-housing-prices-real-estate-federal-reserve/">millions of undocumented immigrants</a>" for adding pressure on a supply-constrained housing market.While research has suggested immigrant demand plays a role in influencing prices, economists generally doubt that this is a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/11/business/economy/trump-housing-crisis-deportations.html">major driver</a>. Rents and home prices started surging in 2020 and 2021, at a time when net immigration inflows were close to the two-decade average, as tracked by the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60569#:~:text=Over%20the%202021%E2%80%932026%20period%2C%20the%20net%20immigration%20of%20people,net%20immigration%20of%20that%20population">Congressional Budget Office</a>.Meanwhile, Trump's platform is also pushing another policy initiative that's unlikely to help housing costs: tariffs. The candidate has pledged to raise duties on virtually all imports to the US, raising them as much as 60% on Chinese imports."If you're going to add tariffs onto building materials, that cost is just going to be passed along to the homeowner or the renter," Tobin said, citing that there's a lack of evidence that tariffs will meaningfully increase production in the US. He pointed to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nahb.org/blog/2024/08/canadian-lumber-tariffs">a 15% tariff on Canadian softwood lumber</a> that has failed to do this.

Trump's immigration crackdown could deplete the construction workforce and make housing more expensive     

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Canada will reduce its target number of new permanent residents in 2025 from 500,000 to 395,000.</li><li>Justin Trudeau said the new target will pause population growth in Canada over the next few years.</li></ul>Canada has announced cuts in the number of immigrants it allows into the country after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he "didn't get the balance right."At a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuFIwUQ6SgY">news conference in Ottawa</a>, Trudeau took the unusual step of acknowledging his policies had placed a strain on the economy.He said Canada needed to "pause population growth and let our economy catch up," adding that while immigration was "essential" for Canada's future, it must be controlled and sustainable.Under the new plan, the number of permanent residents arriving in Canada in 2025 will be reduced by 21%, from the initial target of 500,000 to 395,000.The long-term goal is to reduce that number to 365,000 new permanent residents by 2027.<h2 id="80880aaa-7718-4595-8c66-00b430baa1bd">Slowing down population growth</h2>Canada's immigration policy is often offered up as a model for other countries, with foreign-born people making up nearly a quarter of its population, according to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-canadas-immigration-policy">Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).</a>"Immigrants have helped the country counter aging demographics and fuel economic growth, though some Canadians have expressed concern about the increasing strain on housing and social services," the CFR report said.Canada's population hit <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/2024/10/government-of-canada-reduces-immigration.html">41 million in April</a>, with immigration accounting for almost 98% of population growth last year.Since 2019, annual targets for new permanent resident admissions increased by nearly 41%, according to figures from the<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/publications-manuals/annual-report-parliament-immigration-2024.html"> Canadian government.</a>While its population has been growing, Canada has been grappling with a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/canada-housing-crisis-bubble-imploding-real-estate-prices-rent-decline-2023-11">housing crisis</a>, increased costs of living, and rising debt.Canada's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/unemployment-rate">unemployment rate </a>was 6.5% in September. Meanwhile, housing prices increased prices by more than 355% between 2000 and 2021.According to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/sites/cmhc/professional/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-research/research-reports/2023/housing-shortages-canada-updating-how-much-we-need-by-2030-en.pdf?rev">2023 report by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation</a>, Canada will need 3.5 million more homes on top of what's already being built to restore affordability."These pressures have required us to adapt our immigration levels planning to the current climate," said Immigration Minister Marc Miller."Our annual plans must take into account the capacity to settle, integrate, and retain newcomers—which varies across the country—and monitor system-wide pressures in critical sectors such as housing and health care. At the same time, immigrants make significant contributions to the labor market and are part of the solution."In an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-24/canada-s-economy-won-t-take-a-hit-from-immigration-curb-minister-says">interview with Bloomberg</a>, Miller said he was not worried about the slowing population growth from immigration cuts having a negative impact on the economy."We do have an aging population and whatever you see in the next three years with the neutral population growth is counteracted by the quite large growth that we've seen in the last three years," he said. "If it goes on too long, you have a concern, but we're not in that situation, far from it."The immigration cuts come as Trudeau faces challenges to his leadership. An Ipsos poll conducted between September 5 and 9 <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/approval-trudeaus-performance-just-33-canadians-call-parliament-focus-cost-living">put</a> his approval rating at 33%. Two-thirds of Canadians disapproved of his leadership, citing disappointment with the cost of living and housing crisis.

Justin Trudeau, a champion of immigration, says he overdid it and strained Canada's economy

Back in 2015, when Donald Trump first descended from his golden escalator in New York City, Alexis García was attending high school in the Texas border town of Rio Grande City. In those days, it seemed, everyone in his classes hated Trump. The town of 15,000 serves as the seat of rural Starr County, which is 97% Latino and has voted for the Democratic candidate in every presidential election for the past 100 years. García was too young to vote in 2016, but he supported Bernie Sanders. That year, Hillary Clinton destroyed Trump in Starr, winning 79% of the vote.But after Trump took office, García began to find himself drawn to Trump's bombast. He liked the nicknames Trump came up with for his opponents — they reminded him of his own nickname, Pelón, meaning baldy for his buzzed hair. "Trump is like a schoolyard bully," García tells me, meaning it as a compliment. By the end of 2017, as a high-school senior, he'd become a full-fledged Trump supporter.At first, seeing how his classmates went after other Trump fans, García chose to keep his political conversion to himself. "Tienes nopal en la frente," his friends would tell Trump supporters — you've got a cactus on your face. The meaning of the insult was clear: You're only Mexican on the outside. When García finally told people he liked Trump, he was denounced as a racist. "How can you do this to your own kind?" people would ask."Coming out as a Republican was probably worse than coming out as an LGBT person," says García, who works at a local supermarket. "They would shame you for it."<div type="image" title="Alexis García" height="1500" width="2000" msid="113985767" hostid="261" sizebytes="137552"></div>At the time, García felt like he was part of a minority in South Texas. MAGA was a sort of counterculture among Latinos, a tiny band of provocateurs who enjoyed pissing off the dominant Democrats. But beneath the surface, a seismic shift was underway. When the results were counted on election night in November 2020, García was as shocked as everyone else to discover that Republican turnout in Starr County had nearly quadrupled from 2016. Joe Biden still won, but barely — 52% to Trump's 47%. Trump had gained more ground in Starr than in any other county in America.Since then, political analysts have been questioning whether Democrats are losing their long-standing advantage among Latino voters. How had a candidate who once called Mexicans "rapists" done so well in a Mexican American county? In July, before Biden exited the race, polls found his support among Latinos had fallen below 50%. And even since Kamala Harris won the nomination, polling has indicated she's likely to win no more than 58% of Latino voters — a far cry from what Democrats used to muster. That's especially significant this year because Trump doesn't need to win a majority of Latino support to retake the White House. If he can peel off enough of the 36 million Latino voters, especially in hotly contested swing states such as Arizona and Nevada, it could prove to be the margin of victory.<div type="image" title="An empty street in Roma, Texas" height="1500" width="2000" msid="113985769" hostid="261" sizebytes="294998"></div>In late July, after Biden dropped out of the race, I traveled to Starr County to see why this longtime Democratic stronghold has been shifting steadily to the right. To be sure, Starr differs from other border towns in some significant ways, especially in its relative dearth of recent migrants. But the county underscores how being Latino is becoming less predictive of how someone will vote. The area is working class, and its politics are similar to much of rural America. There's a reverence for law enforcement and the military, a sense of economic instability, and a nagging suspicion that liberal elites in Hollywood and on Wall Street think of locals as ignorant hicks. In Trump, they see a man who offers something different. "People tell me they're going to vote for him," García says. "Trump is going to win."On a humid July morning, Benito Treviño, 77, is walking along the dirt road of his ranch, nestled among the thickets of Tamaulipan thornscrub that grow north of Rio Grande City. Reaching up, he grabs a bean pod from one of the large mesquite trees. "We can grind these into flour with a hammer mill we built," says Treviño, a biochemist and botanist by training who now runs a native-plant nursery. Like the mesquite and huisache that thrive in this arid climate, he has deep roots in Starr County.Treviño traces his family's ancestry back to the earliest Spanish colonists, who made their homes on thin ranches along the Rio Grande. When the US annexed half of Mexico in 1848, those Mexican ranchers suddenly became American. Instead of them moving to America, America moved to them. Today, many South Texans like Treviño see themselves as more Tejano than Mexican American.This explains, in part, why Biden's campaign struggled to get traction among many Starr residents. His 2020 playbook for Latinos was built around celebrating immigrants and affording them a sense of belonging — one of his slogans was "Todos con Biden." But many here don't identify as immigrants. Treviño was born in 1947 and grew up helping his parents work the lands his family had been on for generations. He's American.Like almost everyone in his generation, Treviño was raised as a Democrat, he says, for one simple reason: There were no Republicans in Starr County. "I never heard the word 'Republican' growing up," he says. "There was no Republican Party here." For more than a century, Democrats enjoyed complete control of local government, often running unopposed in general elections. That dominance, at its worst, led to graft and corruption as powerful families passed down elected offices like heirlooms. When Treviño's father spoke out against the local leadership in Starr, the Democratic bosses found a way to show their displeasure: Treviño claims that when officials decided to improve a dirt road that ran through the county, they left the stretch in front of the Treviño home unpaved.<div type="image" title="Benito and Toni Treviño" height="1500" width="2000" msid="113985772" hostid="261" sizebytes="326624"></div>The machine politics compelled Treviño to turn away from the Democrats. He was also prodded by his wife, Toni, a chemist turned lawyer who moved to Starr from Houston. As an outsider and self-identified libertarian, she was shocked by the county's rampant cronyism. "Why are you a Democrat?" she asked her husband. "You're a hard worker. You're very conservative in your values." The Treviños became Republicans, and today Toni serves as the chair of the Starr County GOP.While the worst instances of machine politics were eradicated by the 1980s, many old-timers like Treviño remain deeply suspicious of the Democratic Party. In South Texas counties where Democrats have controlled local politics for generations, Republicans can offer themselves as the party of something new. And polls indicate the same shift taking place across the country: Latinos are much more likely to see Trump, rather than Harris, as the candidate offering a chance at major change.If any place embodies the dual identity among Latinos in Starr County, it's the Rancho Cafe in the tiny town of Roma. On the outside, the restaurant has the wooden facade of an Old Western saloon, complete with a covered wagon in the dirt parking lot. Inside, however, it's classic Tex-Mex. Traditional Mexican dresses hang for sale along the walls of the café, and the servers greet you in Spanish.<div type="image" title="Rancho Cafe" height="1500" width="2000" msid="113985757" hostid="261" sizebytes="276360"></div>At lunchtime, Aliriam Perez sits sipping a bowl of caldo. Both her parents are from Miguel de Alemán, a Mexican city across the border that would blend in seamlessly with Roma if it weren't for the heavily patrolled river separating them. Perez grew up mostly on the US side, though she crossed over frequently to spend time with family. Her mother was adamant that Perez never lose touch with her culture — she didn't want her daughter to become "pocha," Americanized. Though Perez at times rebelled against her mother's wishes, at 34 she's come to appreciate the importance of her Mexican heritage. Now that she has two boys of her own, she's raising them bilingual. "It's part of their history," she says. "It's where they come from."Growing up, Perez wasn't very political. But that changed when she married a local police officer. In 2020, during the Black Lives Matter protests that followed the murder of George Floyd, Perez was deeply offended by the way Democrats supported calls to "abolish the police." It felt like an affront to her husband, who was "out there putting himself in danger," she says. Breaking with her mother, who believes that it's crucial for Mexican Americans to vote against Trump, Perez began volunteering with the local Republican Party. As she sees it, a vote for "law and order" Trump is a way to both honor and protect her husband and other first responders. Democrats maintain a significant advantage among Latinos like Perez's mother, first-generation immigrants who speak Spanish as their first language. But that advantage weakens among the second and third generations — not because American-born Latinos like Perez are more distant from their heritage but because they've started to prioritize other issues in the voting booth. The top two concerns among Latinos this year are the same as those for their fellow Americans: the economy and healthcare. In one recent poll, only 9% of Latino voters cited immigration as their top priority.Starr's economy is propped up not only by law enforcement, including the Border Patrol, but also by the oil and gas industry. During García's childhood, he recalls, his immigrant father would make the long drive out to the Permian Basin in West Texas, where he worked as pipe fitter. Oil production has grown under Biden, and Harris says she has no plans to ban fracking. But to García, it's obvious that Republicans are far more keen to expand drilling. Voting for Trump, as he sees it, is his best bet to keep his dad employed.To be sure, "oil worker" is not a big part of Latino identity in swing states like Arizona and Nevada. Democrats, in fact, have long played to Latino voters by emphasizing the discrimination they face in the energy industry and law enforcement. But that appeal is beginning to lose its appeal. Perez says she knows racism exists in America — a white worker in an Alabama Dairy Queen once refused to serve her because she's Mexican. But she doesn't see discrimination as the province of any one political party. "There are Democrats who are racist and there are Republicans who are racist," she says. Latinos still tell pollsters they consider the Democratic Party more welcoming to them than Republicans. But there are signs the political cohesion of "Latinidad" is beginning to fracture. Across the country, Latino Republicans say they feel more able to wear their politics on their sleeve. When people give them a hard time about voting for Trump, they've adopted a proud and defiant comeback. "¿Y qué?" they reply — "So what?"In his home on his ranch along the northern edge of Starr County, Rick Guerra keeps one room as a sort of museum of his time in the Army: his vest from his days as a tank gunner during the invasion of Iraq, his boots from his deployment in Afghanistan. On one wall, there's a collection of medals and challenge coins. As a teenager, Guerra helped his father and brothers build this very house. After he retired from the Army, he moved in with his wife and two children.<div type="image" title="Rick Guerra" height="2667" width="2000" msid="113985775" hostid="261" sizebytes="288906"></div>Leaning conservative since he was a kid, Guerra became a dedicated Republican during his time in the Army — and he'd like to see America return to the days of George W. Bush, when the military was flush with cash. Like many Latino-majority counties in Texas, Starr sends a higher percentage of its young men and women to the military than the rest of the country. Most families have at least one veteran in their family tree, and that has contributed to the fiercely pro-military tenor of the local political culture.There's another dynamic at play on Guerra's ranch: This is rural America, where Democrats have been hemorrhaging support for over two decades. Today, the political gulf between urban and rural areas is a greater divide than the split between North and South. While three-quarters of rural Americans are white, huge swaths of rural counties in Texas and other states are majority Latino. As a result, millions of Latinos are beginning to experience what demographers call "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/20/midterms-rural-urban-divide-resentment/">rural resentment</a>" — like other MAGA supporters, they feel disrespected by politicians and the media on the urban coasts. And efforts by Democrats to counter such perceptions, like passing the Inflation Reduction Act to create energy jobs in rural areas, have <a target="_blank" href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/biden-rural-voters-big-spending-infrastructure-inflation-reduction-act-8df204b9">had little effect on attitudes</a> among Latinos and other rural voters."If you're blue collar, you're blue collar — it doesn't matter where you're from," Guerra says. "And if you're blue collar, you want a president who is going to get his hands dirty and do stuff for the country and its people."Trump's working-class support in Starr has been most visible in the string of "Trump Trains" that have been taking place across South Texas. In June, at the first rally of the summer, I speak with a professional portrait photographer named Roel Reyes as he's adjusting the flags on his motorcycle on the southern edge of Route 83. He's flying the Texas Lone Star flag next to the Stars and Stripes; on the front of his bike are two signs that proclaim "TRUMP 2024." Reyes smiles as pickup trucks and other bikes pull over behind him, all of them flying Trump banners. Before long, the parade of vehicles snakes 15 miles southeast from Roma to Rio Grande City.In 2020, during the early days of the pandemic, Reyes helped organize the county's first Trump Train. At the time, the riotous parades felt like a protest as much as a rally, a way to openly flout the COVID shutdowns being enforced by local Democrats. Reyes recalls getting plenty of "single-finger salutes" from townspeople. But the trains also gave him the sense that Trump was more popular in Starr than the polls might indicate. During the rallies, he'd get waves from local folks he knew would never admit to supporting Trump in mixed company.<div type="image" title="A patrol vehicle" height="2667" width="2000" msid="113985764" hostid="261" sizebytes="586914"></div>"Trump puts the country first. He puts God first — he's for border control," Reyes says. Next to him, an off-duty Border Patrol agent who has joined the Trump Train nods in agreement.Local Democrats and Republicans agree that the trains gave Trump an electoral advantage in 2020. During the pandemic, Democrats — following strict instructions from the Biden campaign to avoid spreading the virus — stopped knocking on doors and focused instead on their digital strategy. Republicans, meanwhile, kept staging the Trump Trains, knocking on doors, and throwing well-attended barbeques and "asadas." Democrats have become accustomed to hemorrhaging support from working-class white voters. But now it's clear that more and more Latinos — who are overrepresented in the working class, especially in South Texas — are flocking to the Republicans. Being Latino, it appears, no longer dictates how someone will vote.The Trump Train being held is small, but Reyes already has plans to hold larger rallies all across the border lands. This first train, he says, "will be like the trailer before the movie." But it's hard to hear him. Every few minutes, passing trucks honk their horns, their drivers waving out their windows at the sea of MAGA flags blanketing the dry, thorny landscape that once belonged to Democrats.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/jack-herrera">Jack Herrera</a> is a freelance journalist who reports on how immigration and demographic change impacts individual lives. He was previously a national correspondent for the Los Angeles Times and senior editor at Texas Monthly.

Trump demonizes immigrants. So why is he winning so many Latino votes? 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Kamala Harris in September visited the border for the first time as a 2024 presidential candidate.</li><li>Harris has crafted her messaging on immigration to counter Trump's long-standing border edge.</li></ul>Immigration is one of the defining issues of the 2024 election.So it was no surprise that Vice President Kamala Harris on Friday visited the US-Mexico border in Arizona, one of the most <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/battleground-states-2024-presidential-election-road-white-house-2022-12">hotly-contested swing states</a> in the country this year.Harris' visit to Douglas — a border city of about 16,000 people — was notable because it was her first visit to the southern border since the launch of her Democratic presidential campaign in late July.Both Harris and former President Donald Trump are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-immigration-border-security-arizona-trump-swing-voters-2024-8">fighting to win Arizona</a> by rallying the state's suburban independents and its large Latino population. Harris is attacking Trump's role in tanking a bipartisan congressional immigration bill that would have overhauled the asylum system and hired more border patrol agents. And Trump wants to tie Harris to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/immigration-border-security-biden-trump-2024-election">record levels of migrant apprehensions</a> that at various points throughout President Joe Biden's term have severely overwhelmed border patrol agents.But <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_zqBfhHC6k">Harris' remarks</a> in Douglas weren't just aimed at winning Arizona.She's out to reassure swing voters and independents across the country that she's the candidate who'll deliver on the issue."Stopping transnational criminal organizations and strengthening our border is not new to me, and it is a long standing priority of mine," she said during her address in Cochise County, a conservative-leaning jurisdiction where Trump is poised to perform well in November.However, even in battlegrounds like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — far from the southern border — voters cite immigration as a top issue. And in rural and exurban areas where Democratic candidates have to cut into GOP margins to win statewide, Harris' messaging will be crucial as she competes alongside Trump to reach the 270-electoral vote threshold for victory.<h2 id="d4ff5e4b-d3c8-4ddf-ab6b-4a15639a0ddc">Border security will be key — but especially among independents</h2>In the latest <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/09/28/us/elections/times-siena-michigan-crosstabs.html">New York Times/Siena College poll</a> of likely voters in Michigan, immigration was the third most important issue for respondents, with 14% citing it as their top issue. (The economy was the top issue among likely voters overall, with 24% citing it as their most important issue, followed by abortion at 17%.)Among rural and small town voters, immigration (at 16%) ranked as their second most important issue, with only the economy coming out ahead.And among independents, immigration and abortion were tied (at 13% each) as their second most important issue. The economy was cited by 25% of likely Michigan independents as their top issue.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/09/28/us/elections/times-siena-wisconsin-crosstabs.html">The findings are similar</a> in Wisconsin, where the economy is the top issue (28%) among likely voters, followed by abortion (19%) and immigration (12%).While Harris is poised to perform strongly in the Milwaukee and Detroit metropolitan areas, rural margins in Wisconsin and Michigan will be critical. In these Midwestern states — unlike the South — there remain <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-wisconsin-white-non-college-voters-swing-states-election-2024-6">a sizable contingent</a> of rural voters who continue to vote Democratic on the presidential level.<div type="image" title="Donald Trump at the US-Mexico border." height="2713" width="4070" msid="113773983" hostid="261" sizebytes="292808"></div>Harris' remarks on border security were very much aimed at these sort of voters, as many would prefer a bipartisan approach to an immigration overhaul while still enforcing existing laws. And by leaning into her <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://oag.ca.gov/news/press-releases/attorney-general-kamala-d-harris-announces-arrests-and-seizure-meth-valued-2">experience as California's attorney general</a> and dealing with the prosecution of drug cartels, she is seeking to turn the page from Biden's handling of the issue, which has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/americans-immigration-anxieties-pose-a-problem-for-harris-and-an-opportunity-for-trump/">widely panned by voters</a> in recent years."I reject the false choice that suggests we must either choose between securing our border or creating a system of immigration that is safe, orderly and humane," Harris said during her Friday speech. "We can and we must do both."<h2 id="824e6424-f200-42ab-a100-b5e60cda1d07">Trump isn't ceding ground on the issue</h2>Trump's 2016 candidacy was driven by his hardline stance on immigration and his 2024 campaign has largely stuck to the same messaging.The biggest exception is that Trump used Biden's immigration stumbles to build a significant advantage over the president on the issue. But that was before Biden stepped aside as the presumptive nominee and Harris became the Democratic Party's standard-bearer.Harris has needled Trump on the issue in a way that Biden was not able to do effectively, as the president at the time was also dealing with high apprehensions at the border and migrants being sent by Texas GOP Gov. Greg Abbott to cities like Chicago and New York.Harris accused Trump on Friday of "playing political games" with border security and emphasized her commitment to tackling fentanyl smuggling and human trafficking should she win the White House.Trump has retained a significant polling edge on the issue — but that lead has been narrowing.A <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-newly-popular-harris-challenging-trump-change-rcna171308">newly released NBC News poll</a> showed Trump with a 21-point lead (54% to 33%) over Harris among registered voters regarding border security. It was the former president's biggest advantage on any of the major issues that were polled, including the economy.However, Trump's lead on immigration issues is down from a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-biden-trump-economy-presidential-race-rcna136834">35-point advantage</a> that he previously had over Biden in an NBC News survey conducted in late January.Trump has been highly critical of Harris' efforts to blast his border security stances. In advance of the vice president's trip to Arizona, he again sought to tie her to Biden."She should go back to the White House and tell the president to close the border," the former president said.With a little over a month before the general election, Trump's advantage appears to be slipping, which could be an enormous boost to Harris in Georgia and North Carolina — where victories by the vice president would very likely send her to the Oval Office.

Harris' border visit isn't just aimed at Arizona. Immigration will also sway voters in states thousands of miles away.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>America is facing a labor shortage problem as the population declines and more boomers retire.</li><li>Research Affiliates CIO Chris Brightman believes immigration reform is needed to boost the economy.</li></ul>Immigration is a hot political topic right now. But to one chief investment officer, immigration policy isn't a matter of political debate — it's an economic nonnegotiable.Chris Brightman, CEO and chief investment officer of the $147 billion investment manager Research Affiliates, believes immigration reform is long overdue — and billions of dollars are at stake if no action is taken.With an aging population and declining birthrate posing a significant economic risk in coming years, the US must take the necessary steps to boost immigration and economic productivity, Brightman wrote in a research note.<h2 id="d07da37b-d90a-4ec0-8bc0-42e235085dac">The depopulation issue</h2>Declining birth rates are causing a drag on many of the world's biggest economies, and the US is no exception.Fertility rates in the US are hovering around 1.6 children per woman, well below the replacement rate of 2.1, which means that natural US population growth is stagnating.According to Brightman, this is a big threat to US economic health. A declining population brings with it a declining labor force. With few workers and an increasingly aging population, programs like Social Security and Medicare become strained.Government initiatives to boost declining fertility rates aren't the answer, Brightman argues. Financial incentives in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan haven't raised fertility rates. Benefits offered by European countries such as paid parental leave and subsidized childcare have also failed to raise fertility rates.As seen in the graph below, US population growth is projected to trend negative in the coming years without additional inflows from immigration.<div type="image" title="Immigration rejuvenates population growth." height="691" width="942" msid="113937812" hostid="261" sizebytes="26162"></div><h2 id="cd3554fc-a73c-4f34-879d-067f5184864e">More immigration is the answer</h2>Brightman points out that immigrants have a long track record of driving productivity and innovation in the US economy. Immigrants have won 40% of all Nobel Prizes awarded to Americans since 2000 and originated a disproportionate number of US patents. Over half of US unicorns, or startups valued at over $1 billion, are founded by immigrants.Beyond these accomplishments, immigrants are necessary to bolster the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/labor-market-indicators-jobs-pre-pandemic-levels-healthy-goldman-sachs-2024-10">US labor market</a>. As <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/best-retirement-cities-buy-home-baby-boomers-florida-north-carolina-2024-10">baby boomers enter retirement</a>, they're leaving behind unfilled job openings — a trend that began in 2010 and has only continued to worsen. There are currently more job openings than unemployed workers.<div type="image" title="More unfilled jobs than employed workers" height="631" width="942" msid="113937813" hostid="261" sizebytes="22280"></div>With a declining population growth rate and an increase of workers aging out of the workforce, increased skilled immigration is the ideal solution to prevent economic decline, in Brightman's view.<h2 id="24a88d05-7dcb-4bb3-b7a2-af31cfd4efd1">Immigration policy solutions</h2>Brightman sees the need for more friendly immigration policies such as providing permanent residency to immigrants who graduate from US universities.Admitting more computer scientists, engineers, doctors, accountants, educators, and other skilled professionals would greatly help the US labor shortage. Brightman highlights that the economy especially needs more healthcare workers and skilled tradespeople.Countries like Canada, New Zealand, and Australia use a point system with selection criteria such as education, professional skills, and language. Brightman believes the US can emulate this immigration model.One popular reform proposed by policymakers is to exempt immigrants with advanced STEM degrees from statutory limits on the number of green cards granted per year. According to an analysis by the Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), such a proposal would boost the US population by 825,000 in the next 10 years and by over 2.5 million in the next 20 years.This proposal will not only fill gaps in the labor market but also significantly reduce the federal deficit in the next two decades, according to PWBM.An increased number of immigrants leads to increased tax revenues. PWBM estimates that if green card limits were lifted for immigrants with STEM degrees, the US government would see an extra $133 billion in revenues with only a $4 billion increase in outlays for a net deficit reduction of $129 billion.The effect would be even more dramatic by 2044, with $708 billion in tax revenue and $74 billion in outlays for a $634 billion reduction in the deficit.Immigration has a reputation for being a polarizing topic, but Brightman sees such a proposal as a necessary policy that'll tackle one of the biggest challenges facing the US economy.

How immigration reform will supercharge the labor market, reduce national debt by over $600 billion in the next 2 decades: Research Affiliates CIO

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Immigration provides a huge boost to the economy, according to Paul Krugman.</li><li>Claims that immigrants are taking jobs from Americans aren't supported by facts, he said.</li></ul>Immigration isn't taking jobs away from Americans — and it's actually great for the US economy, according to Nobel laureate Paul Krugman.In an op-ed for The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/23/opinion/immigration-unemployment-inflation.html">New York Times</a>, the top economist pointed to economic arguments against immigration, with former President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/immigration-border-security-biden-trump-2024-election">Trump claiming that immigrants</a> have been taking job gains away from native-born Americans in recent years.However, Krugman said the data don't support that argument, as the unemployment rate for <a target="_blank" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU04073413">US-born workers</a> has remained near a historical low of 4.3%, according to Federal Reserve data.<div type="image" title="Graph showing unemployment rate among native-born American workers" height="450" width="538" msid="111994541" hostid="261" sizebytes="8034"></div>The labor force participation rate among native-born workers has been on the decline, but among prime-age native-born workers, the labor force participation rate has actually been rising, Fed data shows. That's a solid sign that the stagnation among US workers is largely because of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-retirement-of-peak-boomers-could-affect-economy-social-security-2024-4">wave of boomers retiring</a>, Krugman said."So the near stagnation of native-born employment isn't a demand-side issue, in which people aren't working because they can't find jobs. It is instead a supply-side issue, in which people aren't working because they've reached retirement age. We've been able to achieve large increases in overall employment only because working-age immigrants have been coming to America. If we didn't have the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/immigrants-boost-us-economy-housing-shortage-hurts-growth-nyc-2024-5">immigrants</a>, we wouldn't have the jobs," Krugman wrote.There's also evidence that immigration has helped push wages up, as immigrants do not ultimately compete with US workers for the same jobs. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wages-outpace-inflation-consumer-sentiment-high-prices-2024-7">Wages among all workers have shot up 25%</a> since 2020, around the time the employment of foreign-born workers in the US began rising.<div type="image" title="Graph showing employment of foreign-born workers" height="450" width="538" msid="111994542" hostid="261" sizebytes="10672"></div>Immigration could also be helping the Fed keep a lid on inflation, Krugman said."Immigrants expand supply, but they also contribute to demand. In the aftermath of the pandemic, however, the huge sums spent on aid pumped up demand; this burst of demand was easier to accommodate without sustained inflation because immigration made it possible to achieve rapid growth in employment," he added.Other <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/immigration-us-economic-outlook-americans-worker-labor-impact-paul-krugman-2024-3">economists</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/immigration-us-economy-outlook-impact-gdp-growth-labor-force-market-2024-3">strategists</a> on Wall Street have said <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-outlook-ai-immigration-rich-people-will-prevent-recession-2024-7">immigration could end up being a big boost to the economy</a>. Rising immigration could help the US grow another $7 trillion over the next 10 years, according to a recent projection from the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://archive.is/Q6f1n/again?url=https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/24/business/commercial-real-estate-loans.html">Congressional Budget Office</a>."So, no, immigrants aren't taking our jobs. Everything that happens in the economy hurts someone: There are no doubt some places where immigrants have driven up housing costs, or where native-born Americans or legal immigrants have faced increased job competition. But the scare stories don't match the facts," Krugman said.

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