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1 min read

The yield curve has been inverted for 18 months without a downturn - but the famed indicator isn't wrong, and a recession is near, strategist says

The inverted yield curve has predicted every recession since 1955, and this time won't be different…

Jennifer Sor   


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2 mins read

The inventor of the market's most famous recession indicator is confident the inverted yield curve is accurately calling a slowdown in 2024

Campbell Harvey's famous inverted yield curve indicator has preceded every recession for the last 5…

Phil Rosen   


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Stocks will struggle and a recession is on the table if the Fed fails to cut rates by September, Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel says

The job market is close to triggering a highly accurate recession indicator, according to Wharton p…

Jennifer Sor   


Jennifer Sor   


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Stock market today: US stocks dip as 2-day Fed meeting kicks off

Investors are waiting to see what the Fed announces at the conclusion of its June policy meeting.

Filip De Mott   


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US stocks hit record highs for the 2nd day in a row as bond yields ease

Investors are turning their attention to fourth-quarter earnings results and the release of US GDP …

Matthew Fox   


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Goldman Sachs says the yield curve isn't signalling a recession this time, but a restrictive Fed policy

According to the Wall Street bank, a restrictive Federal Reserve policy is what's driving an invers…

Zahra Tayeb   


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Recession signals are flashing again in the bond market as closely watched Treasury yields invert for the first time since April

A key recessionary signal flashed Monday, with the 2-year US treasury yield moving to its highest l…

Phil Rosen   


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2 mins read

A recession stemming from the Fed's slow reaction to fight scorching-hot inflation is 'uncomfortably possible', says top economist Mohamed El-Erian

"It is, unfortunately, uncomfortably possible that the Fed is going to slam on the brakes and push …

Jennifer Sor   


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3 mins read

It's going to be a long summer for the stock market

Economic data looks fuzzy, valuations are sky-high, and the market lacks an obvious catalyst to kee…

Jennifer Sor   


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US stocks dive as bond yields flash recession warning and investors brace for inflation reading

The spread between the yields on the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds inverted to their deepest po…

Jason Ma   


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A closely watched recession indicator is flashing again after the Fed minutes reveal another big rate hike could be on the way

The Treasury yield curve deepened its inversion after the release of the Fed's June minutes, signal…

Jennifer Sor   


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US stocks slip as the 10-year Treasury yield continues to climb and nears a 3-year high

US stocks were mostly lower on Tuesday as the yield on the 10-year Treasury continued to rise and o…

Phil Rosen   


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Recession is coming and could start this month as 'we are already slowing,' says developer of the yield-curve indicator

Campbell Harvey, who pioneered the use of the bond yield curve as an economic indicator, said a con…

Filip De Mott   


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Recession fears grow stronger as part of the US bond yield curve inverts for the first time since 2006

Many strategists are nervous that the Federal Reserve could abruptly slow the economy by hiking int…

Harry Robertson   


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3 reasons why stocks could move higher in the face of an inverted yield curve, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee

"The good news is that in 2022, we have not seen the severe tightening of financial conditions that…

Matthew Fox   


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2 mins read

JPMorgan's quant guru says an inverted yield curve and a hawkish Fed warrant caution from investors, but a recession is still unlikely

"From the point of curve inversion to the actual peak of the equity market, which typically takes p…

Matthew Fox   


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An inverted yield curve is likely after the Fed raised interest rates. Here's what that means and why it signals a recession may be imminent.

The difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields is just 21 basis points, while 5- and 10-…

Matthew Fox   


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Stock market today: US indexes rise as mega-cap earnings take the spotlight

Investors are betting on strong earnings among mega-cap leaders to help sustain the equity rebound,…

Filip De Mott   


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Here's why the inverted yield curve isn't as bad for the stock market as many fear, Leuthold Group's Jim Paulsen says

Despite the inverted yield curve's notoriety as a recession bellwether, stocks still could perform …

Jennifer Sor