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1 min read

The yield curve has been inverted for 18 months without a downturn - but the famed indicator isn't wrong, and a recession is near, strategist says

The inverted yield curve has predicted every recession since 1955, and this time won't be different…

Jennifer Sor   


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2 mins read

The inventor of the market's most famous recession indicator is confident the inverted yield curve is accurately calling a slowdown in 2024

Campbell Harvey's famous inverted yield curve indicator has preceded every recession for the last 5…

Phil Rosen   


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3 mins read

Cash is no longer king. Here are 3 alternatives investors are trading it for, according to chief money managers.

Three alternatives resembling cash are emerging as investors face diminishing returns from interest…

Laila Maidan   


Jennifer Sor   


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1 min read

Recession signals are flashing again in the bond market as closely watched Treasury yields invert for the first time since April

A key recessionary signal flashed Monday, with the 2-year US treasury yield moving to its highest l…

Phil Rosen   


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'We could be in for an everything rally': Stocks are mirroring the early days of one of history's biggest bull markets, hedge fund manager says

The last time the economy and interest rates were this aligned, the Nasdaq soared 107% in 10 months…

Matthew Fox   


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2 mins read

A recession stemming from the Fed's slow reaction to fight scorching-hot inflation is 'uncomfortably possible', says top economist Mohamed El-Erian

"It is, unfortunately, uncomfortably possible that the Fed is going to slam on the brakes and push …

Jennifer Sor   


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US stocks dive as bond yields flash recession warning and investors brace for inflation reading

The spread between the yields on the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds inverted to their deepest po…

Jason Ma   


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2 mins read

A closely watched recession indicator is flashing again after the Fed minutes reveal another big rate hike could be on the way

The Treasury yield curve deepened its inversion after the release of the Fed's June minutes, signal…

Jennifer Sor   


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1 min read

Goldman Sachs says the yield curve isn't signalling a recession this time, but a restrictive Fed policy

According to the Wall Street bank, a restrictive Federal Reserve policy is what's driving an invers…

Zahra Tayeb   


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1 min read

US stocks slip as the 10-year Treasury yield continues to climb and nears a 3-year high

US stocks were mostly lower on Tuesday as the yield on the 10-year Treasury continued to rise and o…

Phil Rosen   


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2 mins read

Recession fears grow stronger as part of the US bond yield curve inverts for the first time since 2006

Many strategists are nervous that the Federal Reserve could abruptly slow the economy by hiking int…

Harry Robertson   


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2 mins read

3 reasons why stocks could move higher in the face of an inverted yield curve, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee

"The good news is that in 2022, we have not seen the severe tightening of financial conditions that…

Matthew Fox   


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2 mins read

JPMorgan's quant guru says an inverted yield curve and a hawkish Fed warrant caution from investors, but a recession is still unlikely

"From the point of curve inversion to the actual peak of the equity market, which typically takes p…

Matthew Fox   


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3 mins read

A booming stock market isn't stopping bears from sounding the alarm on a potential crash. Here's what they're worried about.

From a possible recession to a 70% decline in the stock market, here's a roundup of the most recent…

Matthew Fox   


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2 mins read

US stocks hit record highs for the 2nd day in a row as bond yields ease

Investors are turning their attention to fourth-quarter earnings results and the release of US GDP …

Matthew Fox   


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2 mins read

An inverted yield curve is likely after the Fed raised interest rates. Here's what that means and why it signals a recession may be imminent.

The difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields is just 21 basis points, while 5- and 10-…

Matthew Fox   


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2 mins read

Here's why the inverted yield curve isn't as bad for the stock market as many fear, Leuthold Group's Jim Paulsen says

Despite the inverted yield curve's notoriety as a recession bellwether, stocks still could perform …

Jennifer Sor   


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1 min read

Recession is coming and could start this month as 'we are already slowing,' says developer of the yield-curve indicator

Campbell Harvey, who pioneered the use of the bond yield curve as an economic indicator, said a con…

Filip De Mott   


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2 mins read

Why a full-fledged bear market is still unlikely even after the latest sharp sell-off

"Several of our sentiment signals suggest that sentiment did not hit euphoric levels typically seen…

Matthew Fox