<ul><li>Global sea levels may rise by 2.7 to 4.3 inches by 2100, according to a new study published in Climate Dynamics. </li><li>Scientists claim that accounting for internal climate variability displaces conventional model estimates that only use a mean temperature.</li><li>As a result, simulations may have underestimated the retreat of the <keyword id="935179" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Antarctic-ice-sheet">Antarctic ice sheet</keyword> by up to 20 years. </li></ul>The fact that the polar ice sheets are melting as the planet gets warmers is no secret. However, scientists predict that the effects may be much worse than initially estimated. <br /><br />In addition to the overall effects of <keyword id="6361617" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-change">climate change</keyword>, ice cover will also be affected by internal climate variability, which conventional prediction models don’t consider. <br /><br />Accounting for climate variability, the global sea level may rise by another 2.7 to 4.3 inches by 2100, according to a <a href="https://news.psu.edu/story/634507/2020/10/08/research/ice-melt-projections-may-underestimate-antarctic-contribution-sea">new study</a>.<br /><br /><table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; width: 468pt; table-layout: fixed;"><colgroup></colgroup><col /><col /><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Factor<br /><br /></td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Rise in sea level<br /><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">With climate variability<br /><br /></td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">13.3 to 19.2 inches<br /><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Without climate variability<br /><br /></td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">10.6 to 14.9 inches<br /><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><br />The study found that model simulation that did not include the effects of internal climate variability significantly delayed the ice sheet's retreat by up to 20 years and underestimated future sea-level rise.<br /><br /><br />It may not seem like much, but further increase in sea levels will only add to the destruction displayed by natural calamities.<br /><br /><br />"Every bit adds on to the storm surge, which we expect to see during hurricanes and other severe weather events, and the results can be devastating," said <a href="https://news.psu.edu/story/634507/2020/10/08/research/ice-melt-projections-may-underestimate-antarctic-contribution-sea">Chris Forest</a>, co-author of the paper published in Climate Dynamics. <br /><br /><strong>What is climate variability?<br /></strong>Most research around climate change uses a mean temperature by averaging the results of climate models. The process smoothens the peaks caused by climate variability and reduces the average number of days above temperature thresholds. This creates a bias. <br /><br />"If we're just running with average conditions, we're not seeing these extremes (climate variability) happening on yearly or decadal timescales," explained Forest.<br /><br />When one includes variability, the results accommodate for more warm days and more sunshine. On those days, the ice will melt further, with the temperatures being above the mean threshold. <br /><br />The scientists also found that while atmospheric variations had a more considerable and more immediate impact on the ice sheet — ocean variability was also a significant factor.<br /><br />"It's important to better understand these processes contributing to the additional ice loss because the ice sheets are melting much faster than we expected," said Forest.<br /><br /><strong>SEE ALSO:<br /><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/science/space/news/nasa-cases-asteroid-bennu-ahead-of-snatch-and-grab-finds-six-new-secrets-including-a-possible-void-under-the-surface/slidelist/78577408.cms">NASA cases Asteroid Bennu ahead of snatch and grab — finds six new secrets, including a possible void under the surface</a><br /><br /><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/rbi-governor-wants-markets-to-keep-the-faith-but-traders-want-something-more/articleshow/78574663.cms">RBI Governor wants markets to keep the faith but traders want something more</a><br /><br /></strong><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/tcs-beats-accenture-to-become-the-worlds-most-valuable-it-services-company/articleshow/78566487.cms"><strong>TCS beats Accenture to become the world’s most valuable IT services company — but this not the first time it has raced ahead</strong></a><br />

Antarctic ice may melt 20 years sooner than estimated — global sea levels likely to rise by an additional three inches by 2100

The fastest possible <keyword id="1816512" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="speed-of-sound">speed of sound</keyword> has been recorded for the first time which is about 36 km per second.<br /><br />The result is around twice as fast as the speed of sound in diamond, the hardest known material in the world, said the researchers from Queen Mary University of London, the University of Cambridge and the Institute for High Pressure Physics in Troitsk, Moscow.<br /><br />Sound waves can travel through different mediums, such as air or water, and move at different speeds depending on what they're travelling through.<br /><br />For example, they move through solids much faster than they would through liquids or gases, which is why we are able to hear an approaching train much faster if you listen to the sound propagating in the rail track rather than through the air.<br /><br />Einstein's theory of special relativity sets the absolute speed limit at which a wave can travel which is the speed of light, and is equal to about 300,000 km per second.<br /><br />However, it was not known to date whether sound waves also have an upper speed limit when travelling through solids or liquids.<br /><br />"Sound waves in solids are already hugely important across many scientific fields. For example, seismologists use sound waves initiated by earthquakes deep in the Earth interior to understand the nature of seismic events and the properties of Earth composition," explained Professor Chris Pickard, Professor of Materials Science at the University of Cambridge.<br /><br />The study, published in the journal Science Advances, shows that predicting the upper limit of the speed of sound is dependent on two dimensionless fundamental constants -- the fine structure constant and the proton-to-electron mass ratio.<br /><br />The new findings suggest that these two fundamental constants can also influence other scientific fields, such as materials science and condensed matter physics, by setting limits to specific material properties such as the speed of sound.<br /><br />The scientists tested their theoretical prediction on a wide range of materials and addressed one specific prediction of their theory that the speed of sound should decrease with the mass of the atom.<br /><br />This prediction implies that the sound is the fastest in solid atomic hydrogen.<br /><br />Researchers performed state-of-the-art quantum mechanical calculations to test this prediction and found that the <keyword id="10088207" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="speed-of-sound-in-solid">speed of sound in solid</keyword> atomic hydrogen is close to the theoretical fundamental limit.<br /><br />"Sound waves are also of interest to materials scientists because sound waves are related to important elastic properties including the ability to resist stress," Pickard said.<br /><br /><strong>SEE ALSO:<br /><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/science/space/news/nasa-cases-asteroid-bennu-ahead-of-snatch-and-grab-finds-six-new-secrets-including-a-possible-void-under-the-surface/slidelist/78577408.cms">NASA cases Asteroid Bennu ahead of snatch and grab — finds six new secrets, including a possible void under the surface</a><br /><br /><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/rbi-governor-wants-markets-to-keep-the-faith-but-traders-want-something-more/articleshow/78574663.cms">RBI Governor wants markets to keep the faith but traders want something more</a><br /><br /></strong><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/tcs-beats-accenture-to-become-the-worlds-most-valuable-it-services-company/articleshow/78566487.cms"><strong>TCS beats Accenture to become the world’s most valuable IT services company — but this not the first time it has raced ahead</strong></a><br />

Fastest possible speed of sound recorded at 36 km per second

As the coronavirus cases continue to rise in <keyword id="13126" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Maharashtra">Maharashtra</keyword>, state School Education Minister Varsha Gaikwad has said schools will not reopen in the state before Diwali. Maharashtra has till now reported 15,17,434 COVID-19 cases and 40,040 deaths due to the disease. <br /><br />The Centre on March 16 announced closure of all educational institutions, including schools, colleges and universities, to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. <br /><br />It has now allowed graded reopening of schools from October 15. <br /><br />Gaikwad, who recently recovered from COVID-19, said schools have been conducting virtual classes and teachers have been taking special classes for students in some areas. <br /><br />However, the challenge is to find a way to end the academic year and assess students, she said. <br /><br />"While we are exploring various options, it is clear that schools will not open before Diwali," Gaikwad said. <br /><br />According to senior officials in the state education department, reopening schools under the current circumstances is out of question, as there is no sign of the pandemic abating. <br /><br />State Higher and Technical Education Minister Uday Samant also said his department does not intend to reopen colleges until the COVID-19 situation is under control. <br /><br />"The situation is grim for students who wish to pursue higher studies abroad, as their future depends on our decision," he added. <br /><br />Even as the state government and bureaucracy mull over solutions, children and parents are worried as they seem to be caught in a quagmire. <br /><br />"I have taken an education loan and my parents are repaying it. If I don't get good grades in exams, how will I get a good job?" said Raviraj Humbe, an engineering student from <keyword id="2094" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Pune">Pune</keyword>. <br /><br />There must be some technical solution for conducting exams and tests, he said. <br /><br />Meanwhile, education expert Kishore Darak suggested that the state government can club two or three educational years so that concerns of parents about academic loss can be addressed. <br /><br />While the safety of students is imperative, it is high time that the state comes up with a bipartisan approach towards education, he said. <br /><br />"The government must come up with a solution where local officials are authorised to take context-specific decisions like full or partial reopening of schools or alternate day scheduling of classes, among others," he said. <br /><br /><strong>SEE ALSO:<br /><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/science/space/news/nasa-cases-asteroid-bennu-ahead-of-snatch-and-grab-finds-six-new-secrets-including-a-possible-void-under-the-surface/slidelist/78577408.cms">NASA cases Asteroid Bennu ahead of snatch and grab — finds six new secrets, including a possible void under the surface</a><br /><br /><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/rbi-governor-wants-markets-to-keep-the-faith-but-traders-want-something-more/articleshow/78574663.cms">RBI Governor wants markets to keep the faith but traders want something more</a><br /><br /></strong><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/tcs-beats-accenture-to-become-the-worlds-most-valuable-it-services-company/articleshow/78566487.cms"><strong>TCS beats Accenture to become the world’s most valuable IT services company — but this not the first time it has raced ahead</strong></a>

Schools in Maharashtra not to reopen before Diwali, says education minister Gaikwad

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The photographer J-P Metsavainio captured images of the Milky Way for 12 years to create a mosaic.</li><li>It shows 20 million stars in the galaxy and features the remains of three supernovas.</li></ul><p>The <keyword id="410481" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Milky-Way-Galaxy">Milky Way galaxy</keyword> is <a href="https://www.sciencenews.org/article/astronomers-have-found-edge-milky-way-size">nearly 2 million light-years</a> across. To visualize even a small chunk of this collection of asteroids, stars, planets, dust, and gas, photographers have to piece together a vast collection of telescope images.</p><p>For the past 12 years, the photographer J-P Metsavainio has undertaken that challenge.</p><p>Metsavainio started taking snapshots of the Milky Way from his observatory in Oulu, Finland, in 2009. Earlier this month, he <a href="https://astroanarchy.blogspot.com/2021/03/gigapixel-mosaic-of-milky-way-1250.html">released a mosaic image of the galaxy</a> that stretches from Taurus, a <keyword id="114188" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Constellation">constellation</keyword> about 2,200 light-years from Earth, to Cygnus, another constellation about 6,100 light-years away.</p><p>The mosaic captures about 20 million stars in total. (The entire Milky Way has hundreds of billions of stars.)</p><p>It also features objects that are tough to catch on camera, like the remains of three supernovas.</p><p>"When you work with the same project almost 12 years, it's easy to think that there can't be many surprises," Metsavainio told Insider. But catching the ghostly debris on camera, he said, was among the most unexpected elements of his Milky Way project.</p><div type="image" title="Cygnus Mosaic supernova remnant" height="1701" width="2709" msid="81658088" hostid="261"></div><h2>The images took 1,250 hours to capture</h2><h2><div type="image" title="J P Metsavainio observatory" height="1495" width="1152" msid="81660178" hostid="261"></div></h2><p>Metsavainio lives about 90 miles from the Arctic Circle and has a private at-home observatory. For six months of the year, the cloudless sky above his home is ideal for stargazing. He takes advantage of this winter period to observe objects via telescope and snap photographs of them. </p><p>"I work every single clear night," he said. </p><p>Metsavainio often stays up late, photographing in silence, he said. On a given night, he added, he can observe an object for four to seven hours, depending on its height on the sky.</p><p>He prefers to take pictures manually using a wide-aperture telephoto lens.</p><p>"I'm a perfectionist regarding my work," he said. "I don't want to miss a single valuable clear moment due to some small software glitch."</p><p>In total, he spent 1,250 hours collecting images for his Milky Way mosaic.</p><p>He stitched the individual images together in Photoshop, using stars as a guide to match the shots. His mosaic uses color coding to represent ionized elements lingering in the galaxy: red for sulfur, green for hydrogen, and blue for oxygen.</p><p>The final image shows several <keyword id="1684499" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="nebula">nebula</keyword>e - clouds of dust and gas in which new stars form - in different constellations. Those include the California Nebula in the constellation Perseus, which is about 1,000 light-years from Earth, as well as the Cave Nebula in the constellation Cepheus, about 2,400 light-years away.</p><div type="image" title="california nebula" height="1026" width="1369" msid="81658096" hostid="261"></div><p>The mosaic also shows the first black hole ever discovered, Cygnus X-1.</p><p>But Metsavainio said the <keyword id="517558" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="supernova">supernova</keyword> remnants were his "absolute favorite" elements of the project. He called them his "three musketeers."</p><h2>The remains of one supernova took 3 years to capture</h2><p>A supernova is the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/longest-observed-supernova-explosion-annihilated-massive-star-2019-8">final explosion of a dying star</a>. It releases a massive amount of energy, scattering debris across the galaxy and leaving behind an expanding nebula.</p><p>Under normal circumstances, dust blocks our view of these structures.</p><p>"They all are extremely dim and in very dense star field," Metsavainio said. "That makes imaging almost impossible."</p><p>But after 300 hours of observation, he finally snapped enough photos to capture the three clouds of debris.</p><p>One structure in particular, the remnant of supernova W63, was a target of Metsavainio's for many years. It's more than 5,000 light-years away, near the constellation Cygnus - hence its nickname, "Cygnus Shell."</p><div type="image" title="Cygnus shell Supernova" height="1170" width="1560" msid="81658100" hostid="261"></div><p>Scientists haven't identified the original star that exploded to form W63, but they estimate that <a href="https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap181102.html">light from the explosion</a> would have reached Earth more than 15,000 years ago. </p><p>It took Metsavainio three years, from 2015 to 2018, to collect enough photos of Cygnus Shell alone. Capturing objects like this are "the reason I keep doing this slow and lonely work," he said. </p>

A stunning image of the Milky Way took 12 years to photograph. It shows the ghost of a supernova.

<p><em>Hello, and welcome to this Wednesday's edition of the Insider Tech newsletter, where we break down the biggest news in tech.</em></p><h4><a href="http://newsletter.businessinsider.com/join/4np/insider-tech">Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Get Insider Tech straight in your inbox by subscribing here.</a></h4><p><em><strong>Soundtrack:</strong> For maximum enjoyment of this newsletter, we recommend <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RbMT5-ezHI4&amp;list=PLJ8y7DDcrI_qIDA_4vFS_ocezl8i9ZaGe&amp;index=52index=52">listening to David Bowie's "Starman."</a></em></p><h2>This week: <keyword id="1042120" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Uber">Uber</keyword> CEO <keyword id="1550747" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Dara-Khosrowshahi">Dara Khosrowshahi</keyword> pulls the plug on another one of <keyword id="1739133" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Travis-Kalanick">Travis Kalanick</keyword>'s moonshots</h2><p>It's been more than three years since <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/uber-ceo-dara-khosrowshahi-have-the-d-memo-2018-6">Dara Khosrowshahi famously got "the D"</a> ("decision-making authority," to Khosrowshahi) at Uber, taking control of the ride-hailing company after a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/uber-company-scandals-and-controversies-2017-11">chaotic ride with founder Travis Kalanick</a>. Uber's culture has completely changed since then. Now, Khosrowshahi is cutting loose some of Kalanick's most-high-profile business endeavors.</p><ol><li><strong>Uber's flying taxi group, Elevate,</strong> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joby-aviation-to-acquire-uber-elevate-wins-75-million-investment-2020-12">is being sold to Joby Aviation</a>, the companies announced on Tuesday. Air taxis always seemed a bit far-off as a revenue driver for Uber, even as an Uber exec insisted last year that <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/uber-insists-will-have-fully-functional-flying-taxis-by-2023-2019-10">the service would be operational by 2023</a>. Uber is investing $75 million in Joby (along with a previously undisclosed investment of $50 million) as part of the deal.</li><li><strong>On Monday, Uber announced </strong><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/aurora-ceo-chris-urmson-explains-buying-uber-atg-self-driving-2020-12"><strong>plans to offload its self-driving car division</strong></a> -  known as the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sources-describe-questionable-decisions-and-dysfunction-inside-ubers-self-driving-unit-before-one-of-its-cars-killed-a-pedestrian-2018-10">Advanced Technologies Group (ATG)</a> - to <keyword id="337466" type="ENTERTAINMENT" weightage="60" keywordseo="Aurora">Aurora</keyword>, a startup founded by ex-Googlers. As with the Joby deal, this "acquisition" by Aurora is more of an asset transfer, with Uber investing $400 million in Aurora and getting <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/aurora-ceo-chris-urmson-explains-buying-uber-atg-self-driving-2020-12">a 26% stake in the company</a>. </li></ol><div type="image" title="Uber Elevate interior flying taxi" height="673" width="1024" msid="79648614" hostid="261"></div><p>Khosrowshahi's <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/uber-atg-dara-khosrowshahis-travis-kalanick-aurora-2020-11">jettisoning of the Kalanick moonshots</a> has a bit of a Trump-dismantling-everything-Obama feel to it. And there's no question that Khosrowshahi has a very different vision for Uber than his predecessor.</p><ul><li><strong>But the real motivation</strong> for the divestitures likely has more to do with how Uber has changed. Now that it's a public company with public investors to answer to, Uber has less of a runway to indulge in passion projects (especially since it's <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/uber-earnings-q3-2020-revenue-eps-slow-pandemic-recovery-2020-11">still losing billions</a> of dollars every year).</li><li><strong>To <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/uber-lyft-stock-prices-california-votes-for-prop-22-2020-11-1029764137">satisfy investors</a>, Uber needs to use its gunpowder</strong> to fight for its core ride-hailing and food-delivery businesses. Uber recently spent more than $52 million successfully lobbying for <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/proposition-22-faq-impact-uber-lyft-instacart-doordash-2020-11">California's Prop 22</a>, which allows drivers to be classified as independent contractors rather than employees, skirting costs for Uber. There's a lot more of these high-stakes regulatory threats on the horizon, and the outcomes will impact Uber's business much sooner than flying taxis.</li></ul><p>As for Kalanick, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cloudkitchens-travis-kalanick-ghost-kitchen-real-estate-new-asset-class-2020-11">he's busy working on a new project</a>: ghost kitchens, the delivery-only restaurants that have thrived during pandemic lockdowns. </p><h2>After this month's IPO bonanza, the biggest unicorn listings could be banned in the US<div type="image" title="snowflake ipo" height="2000" width="3000" msid="79648617" hostid="261"></div></h2><p>Three weeks, six unicorns, and billions of dollars. It sounds like the premise for a movie, and perhaps one day it will be - when 2020's strange rush of December <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-ipo">IPOs</a> is remembered.</p><ul><li><strong><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/doordash-refiles-ipo-date-updates-customer-retention-revenue-gov-returning-2020-12">DoorDash</a> and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/airbnb-plans-higher-ipo-price-range-42-billion-valuation-2020-12-1029868444">Airbnb</a></strong> are on track to make their public market debuts this week. Each company has raised the price of its shares in the run up to the offerings (DoorDash <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/doordash-ipo-stock-offering-price-filing-dash-trading-debut-nyse-2020-12-1029875380">priced its IPO at a $34.2 billion valuation on Tuesday</a>), suggesting strong investor demand. Keep an eye on tickers "DASH" and "ABNB" this week as trading begins and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/day-traders-stock-market-euphoria-18-year-high-risks-citi-2020-6-1029296172">hordes of Robinhood users</a> place their orders. </li><li><strong>Also in the December IPO pipeline</strong> are Wish, Affirm, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-much-roblox-executives-cofounders-paid-ipo-filing-s-1-2020-11">Roblox</a>, and C3.ai. As Business Insider columnist Adam Lashinsky writes, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-shape-shifting-startup-tom-siebel-c3-ipo-2020-12">the C3.ai IPO is a fascinating tale of Silicon Valley "trend surfing,"</a> with tech industry veteran Tom Siebel riding a killer wave.</li><li><strong>One of the big winners here is <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sequoia-investor-botha-shares-why-his-firm-stays-on-top-2020-10">Sequoia Capital</a></strong>, the venture capital firm that warned the world in March that <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sequoia-capital-coronavirus-memo-to-founders-2020-3">a "black swan" was about to cause a startup apocalypse</a>, but now says the deadly swan decided to spare its own portfolio. According to Bloomberg, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sequoia-capital-recent-fund-returns-2020-12">some of Sequoia's funds have generated returns between 8x and 11x</a> - and that's before the Airbnb and DoorDash IPOs.</li></ul><p><strong>Amid the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sequoia-capital-vcs-billion-dollar-startups-file-ipos-2020-8">IPO celebration</a> there's a menacing cloud on the horizon for US exchanges like Nasdaq and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/record-ipo-month-october-outlook-nyse-president-cunningham-public-market-2020-9-1029637063">NYSE</a>.</strong> A proposed law aims to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-china-stocks/house-seen-backing-bill-that-could-block-chinese-firms-from-u-s-securities-markets-idUSL1N2IH2I5">prevent Chinese companies from listing on US stock exchanges</a> unless they agree to have their financial records audited by US regulators. </p><p>The legislation has sailed through Congress with rare bipartisan support and could be signed into law later this month. Public Chinese companies like Alibaba and Baidu could be forced to delist from US exchanges under the law.</p><ul><li><strong>More significant,</strong> US exchanges could lose out on the next batch of unicorn <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-ipo">IPOs</a>, in which Chinese tech startups are heavily represented.</li><li>According to <a href="https://www.cbinsights.com/research-unicorn-companies">CB Insights</a>, the two most valuable private tech companies in the world today today are <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tiktok-bytedance-employees-bonuses-working-during-ban-threat-2020-9">ByteDance</a> ($140 billion) and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/didi-unveiled-the-d1-electric-vehicle-made-for-ridesharing-2020-12">Didi Chuxing</a> ($62 billion), both based in China. And eight of the world's 20 most valuable private tech companies are Chinese. Those companies would all have to list outside the US under the new rule, and it's unclear what that might mean for the exits of US-based VCs (including, in ByteDance's case, Sequoia) who backed the companies.</li></ul><h2><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-interview-axel-springer-tesla-accelerate-advent-of-sustainable-energy">Quote of the week: </a></h2><p><em><strong>"If you're going to be buried somewhere, it would be cool to be born on Earth and die on Mars - just not on impact."</strong></em></p><p><em>- <keyword id="6355315" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="elon-musk">Elon Musk</keyword>, CEO of SpaceX and Tesla, discussing his wish to be buried on Mars <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-interview-axel-springer-tesla-accelerate-advent-of-sustainable-energy">during an exclusive interview with Mathias Döpfner,</a> the CEO of Business Insider's parent company, Axel Springer.</em></p><p><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-interview-axel-springer-tesla-accelerate-advent-of-sustainable-energy"><div type="image" title="FILE PHOTO: SpaceX founder and chief engineer Elon Musk attends a post-launch news conference to discuss the  SpaceX Crew Dragon astronaut capsule in-flight abort test at the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida, U.S. January 19, 2020. REUTERS/Steve Nesius" height="2716" width="4081" msid="79648619" hostid="261"></div></a></p><h2>Snapshot: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-earth-lost-when-the-arecibo-telescope-collapsed-2020-12">Broken intergalactic radio</a></h2><p>Let's hope the aliens can adjust their transmissions. On December 1, the Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico - one of the world's most powerful instruments listening for extra-terrestrial communications - <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-earth-lost-when-the-arecibo-telescope-collapsed-2020-12">suffered a catastrophic and fatal failure. </a></p><p><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-earth-lost-when-the-arecibo-telescope-collapsed-2020-12"><em><div type="image" title="arecibo observatory damage radio telescope receiver platform" height="3640" width="5464" msid="79648624" hostid="261"></div></em></a></p><p>The 1,000- foot-diameter telescope was damaged earlier in the year during a tropical storm and it was already scheduled to be disassembled. But before that could happen, a cable snapped and the 900-ton platform suspended in the air to receive radio waves came crashing down into the disk below. (<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/video-arecibo-telescope-puerto-rico-collapse-2020-12">You can watch footage of the collapse here</a>.)</p><p>During its 57-year lifetime, Arecibo mapped planets like Venus, discovered the first-known exoplanet, and tracked potential hazardous asteroids. But most importantly, it was our walkie-talkie with potential alien life.</p><p>In 1974, Arecibo <a href="https://www.seti.org/arecibo-message">beamed a powerful interstellar message</a> into space. And since then, it has kept a constant ear open for radio signals that could emanate from alien technology in other galaxies. It will take some time to rebuild a telescope as powerful as Arecibo - but there's time. The message it sent in 1974 is still en route to <a href="https://news.cornell.edu/stories/1999/11/25th-anniversary-first-attempt-phone-et-0">a star cluster that's about 25,000 light years</a> away. </p><h2>Recommended Readings:</h2><p><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-attempted-quell-unrest-in-meeting-over-ousted-ai-ethicist-2020-12">Google held a meeting to calm rising employee tensions over the ousting of AI ethicist Timnit Gebru. Insiders say it only raised more concerns.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sources-poshmarks-ipo-is-back-on-2020-12">Sources: Poshmark's IPO is back on and its S-1 paperwork is expected to become public 'in the next week or so'</a></p><p><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/online-sextortion-attacks-snapchat-social-media-hackers-2020-12">Hackers are breaking into Snapchat accounts and holding nude photos for ransom. One college woman says Snap did nothing to help her for days after her nudes were stolen.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tony-hsieh-tragic-final-months-in-park-city-2020-12">Tony Hsieh sold Zappos for $1.2 billion in his 30s. He was dead by 46. Inside his final Park City months, where he hoped to deliver more happiness as he spiraled.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-airpods-max-release-date-price-specs-2020-12">Here's everything we know about Apple's stylish new headphones, the $549 AirPods Max</a></p><h2>Not necessarily in tech:</h2><p><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jared-kushner-real-estate-asher-abehsera-cadre-brookfield-kushner-companies-2020-12">Jared Kushner's name is radioactive in real estate right now. Some developers and investors say they're avoiding deals with his family's company, while others report they're getting penalized for past partnerships.</a></p><p>Thanks for reading, and if you like this newsletter, <a href="http://newsletter.businessinsider.com/join/4np/insider-tech">tell your friends and colleagues they can sign up here to receive it</a>.</p><p>And as always, please reach out with rants, raves, and tips at aoreskovic@businessinsider.com</p><p>- Alexei</p>

Dara Khosrowshahi hits the kill switch on Uber's moonshots

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5699630fdd0895d46b8b4635-1250/rrl_9517_5445-recovered.jpg" alt="Camera technique in club" data-mce-source="Rafi Letzter/Tech Insider" /><p class="source"><span>Rafi Letzter/Tech Insider</span></p></div><p></p></div></div>Sex and love are great. </p><p>That's probably why the <keyword id="41551" type="ENTERTAINMENT" weightage="100" keywordseo="science">science</keyword> of sex and love is so popular. I know it's popular because <a href="http://www.techinsider.io/ways-to-look-more-attractive-2016-6">sometimes I write about it</a>, and <a href="http://www.techinsider.io/scientific-explanation-for-falling-in-love-2016-6">lots and lots of people read</a> those stories.</p><p>Writing about these subjects is <em>fun</em>. There's a lot of weird science out there about how and why people hook up - for example, did you <a href="http://cdp.sagepub.com/content/20/2/87.short">know</a> that <a href="http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/265/1399/927.short">several</a> studies <a href="http://pss.sagepub.com/content/early/2009/12/21/0956797609357733.abstract">suggest</a> body odor plays a major role in attraction? That weirdness is a big part of why science journalists like to muck around in these areas.</p><p>But it probably won't shock you to know the other reason we (or at least, I) write these stories is because we know people will almost always read them. Finding science that's exciting, presenting it in a truthful, accessible, well-sourced way - that's the job.</p><p>But I worry, frankly, that people come to these stories for the wrong reasons. No science writer (or scientist) can provide you a rule book that's going to get you laid, wed, or anything in between.</p><p>A quick little story like "<a href="http://www.techinsider.io/scientific-explanation-for-falling-in-love-2016-6">9 weird psychological reasons someone might fall in love with you</a>," (if it's responsibly written) will round up the best available science on the subject, couch it in caveats about the limitations of that research, and not promise any results.</p><p>These aren't <em>proven tricks</em>. They're oddball results from just a few studies, in a field that's nowhere near well-enough understood to offer definitive answers. They're fun to read, and wonder about, but they're highly unlikely to offer some missing link to your dating life. That's not why they exist.</p><p>Small numbers of studies can't paint a picture of universal truths, because that's not how science works.</p><p>Rather, we should think of individual papers more like points on a paint-by-numbers board that's still filling in with dots. Some are more useful than others, but we need a whole constellation of them before we can make definitive statements about what they reveal. In the meantime, individual results can be confusing - and some flat-out wrong.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/561d3b80dd089565518b45ce-2400/4506598157_9731f3ff0a_o.jpg" alt="couple date romantic relationship" data-mce-source="bigbirdz / Flickr" data-link="https://www.flickr.com/photos/bigbirdz/4506598157/in/photolist-7SeuCe-9QTBEW-8fFN5T-35BkxJ-i82vqh-i82UV2-i82zyE-69MGBS-jgfc2d-graVg4-gYC1ct-7gfyhr-8zNrRX-nvYzYT-iii6em-i82r6g-netSkt-sUuEbG-o3kkUX-oK76Wb-aSWbw4-neu3b9-jMCo3f-8wNsB8-oiuyGN-uHEsdR-dYPiBb-YLk6k-nw1erf-i82SNr-bhr4cx-iii4Ww-8zxgCb-fzimUY-66632t-i82z6q-8G6oFm-i82q8e-i82TH2-i82TBa-i82SPP-i82oEz-iiigfm-7CmBAz-i82yZy-iiifS7-i82t5q-8vRyu1-8N6VbB-d8taS5" /><p class="source"><span><a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/bigbirdz/4506598157/in/photolist-7SeuCe-9QTBEW-8fFN5T-35BkxJ-i82vqh-i82UV2-i82zyE-69MGBS-jgfc2d-graVg4-gYC1ct-7gfyhr-8zNrRX-nvYzYT-iii6em-i82r6g-netSkt-sUuEbG-o3kkUX-oK76Wb-aSWbw4-neu3b9-jMCo3f-8wNsB8-oiuyGN-uHEsdR-dYPiBb-YLk6k-nw1erf-i82SNr-bhr4cx-iii4Ww-8zxgCb-fzimUY-66632t-i82z6q-8G6oFm-i82q8e-i82TH2-i82TBa-i82SPP-i82oEz-iiigfm-7CmBAz-i82yZy-iiifS7-i82t5q-8vRyu1-8N6VbB-d8taS5">bigbirdz / Flickr</a></span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>That doesn't mean science isn't valuable. In fields where the body of research is thick and well-understood, like mathematics or climate change, we can be as confident of its answers as we can anything in this world.</p><p>But the science of love and attraction is especially beset with noise. That's partly because its substrate, the mind and brain, are themselves not well understood. We don't really <em>know</em> why human being do small, daily things like <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-real-reason-we-yawn-1408403897">yawning</a> or <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jul/01/why-do-people-laugh-google">laughing</a>. So we're a long way off from definitive answers on complex, layered behaviors like going home together after a date or marrying and raising children.</p><p>And what research does exist on the subject is often sketchy, raising more questions than it answers.</p><p>A study can tell us that <a href="http://www.ehbonline.org/article/S1090-5138(02)00119-8/abstract">people tend to prefer partners who resemble their parents</a>, but that's one data point in a vacuum. We don't know if it's universal and encoded in our genes, specific to some cultures or situations, or even definitively true without results that are reproduced several times.</p><p>On top of that, studies into sex and love (like many studies into human behavior) tend to focus on the practices of the subjects most available to researchers: <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2013/05/weird_psychology_social_science_researchers_rely_too_much_on_western_college.html">their local population of college students</a>. I don't know about you, but my thoughts and practices around sex and love look a lot different today than they did when I was 18. On top of that, the subjects and structure of the studies are <em>way</em> more straight, white, Western, and cisgender than the real world.</p><p>The most useful advice we can get from these studies tends to be obvious: Be <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/113/15/4009">open and engaging</a>, be <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02699931.2013.817383">friendly</a>, look for <a href="http://psycnet.apa.org/psycinfo/1957-07607-001">someone you who lives near you</a>, and know that <a href="http://www.ehbonline.org/article/S1090-5138(04)00074-1/abstract">certain cultural markers of beauty</a> might offer you some advantage.</p><p>But the fact is, while you can work on being a better version of yourself, you can't be anyone other than the person you are. Fortunately, human beings vary so widely that in all likelihood someone else out there will think you're pretty great. So keep reading the science - we're picking up a lot of interesting insights along the way - but go out into the world not worrying about it too deeply.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/how-much-damage-could-an-asteroid-cause-2016-6">This is how big an asteroid would need to be to wipe out New York City </a></h3>        <div>            <div>    <script src="http://player.ooyala.com/v3/6e12e8b3387a44daacfb73afba25a76e"></script>    <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="Nra2JmMjE6kw4VXVz2qYVgBPd5TH44hK" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>    <script>    if (typeof RunFunctions === 'undefined') { var RunFunctions = []; }     RunFunctions.push(function()    {         var ooyalapopvideo = OO.Player.create('ooyalaplayer_popvideo', 'Nra2JmMjE6kw4VXVz2qYVgBPd5TH44hK',{ autoplay: 'false' });     });    </script>    <noscript><div>Please enable Javascript to watch this video</div></noscript></div>        </div>        <script>(function() { function createPlayer() { OO.ready(function() { RunFunctions.forEach(function(ooyalaFunction) { ooyalaFunction(); }); RunFunctions = [];}); } createPlayer(); }()); </script>    </div>

Sorry, science probably can't help you find love or sex

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table click-to-enlarge"><div><div class="image on-image"><a title_source="REUTERS/Joshua Roberts" title_caption="A trader told us: " The="" less="" liquidity="" you="" have="" the="" it="" takes="" to="" push="" market="" around="" You="" literally="" need="" know="" nothing="" other="" than="" what="" a="" correctly="" uttered="" phrase="" would="" do="" market.="" class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5b5721ff88be232e008b45e5-960/nigel farage.jpg"><span class="sprites click-to-enlarge-icon" title="Click to enlarge"></span><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5b5721ff88be232e008b45e5-1200/nigel farage.jpg" border="0" alt="Nigel Farage" data-mce-source="REUTERS/Joshua Roberts" data-mce-caption="The former leader of Britain's UK Independence Party (UKIP), Nigel Farage, speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) at National Harbor, Maryland, U.S., February 23, 2018." /></a><p class="source"><span>REUTERS/Joshua Roberts</span></p><p class="caption">A trader told us: "The less liquidity you have the less it takes to push the market around ... You literally need to know nothing other than what a correctly uttered phrase would do to the market."</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><ul><li><strong>Nigel Farage made predictions on the night of the Brexit vote that turned out to be wrong, even though he knew of two private polls that predicted the correct outcome.</strong></li><li><strong>Sources in the FX trading world told Business Insider of a speculative theory that someone placed a massive "knock-in short" against the pound.</strong></li><li><strong> Such a bet would require the pound to move up on June 23 before it fell, which is exactly what the pound did after Farage spoke.</strong></li><li><strong>FX traders say pricing data on the night shows the "knock-in short" theory is plausible.</strong></li><li><strong>Farage told Business Insider that this is "a crackpot lunatic conspiracy theory."</strong></li></ul><hr /><p><br />LONDON - As the EU Referendum approached in 2016, foreign currency traders knew they were looking at a "multi big fig" day. The beauty of June 23 from a trader's perspective was that whichever way the vote went, it would move the pound against the dollar dramatically - "multiple big figures" - and not the mere decimal places that characterize most currency movements. If Britain voted to remain in the EU, the pound would bounce sharply up against the dollar. If the UK voted to leave Europe, the pound was expected to fall quickly.</p><p>The Brexit vote was going to be close. Polls suggested a 52% vs 48% victory for Remain, but that was near the margin of error. Major polling organisations had declined to conduct exit polls on the day because the vote was so unusual they had no comparative data to ensure their accuracy. The result was going to be tight and uncertain.</p><p>Leave won and the pound went into freefall on the night. The EU Referendum was the most dramatic day in sterling trade since "Black Wednesday" in 1992, when <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday">George Soros placed a short bet against the pound and forced the Bank of England to abandon the European Exchange Rate Mechanism</a>.</p><p>For FX traders, that type of big, sudden movement is a golden opportunity. You can make a lot of money if you know which direction the pound is going before it moves.</p><p>Unsurprisingly, traders have gossiped since that day about who made money and who lost. The gossip was fueled recently by <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-25/brexit-big-short-how-pollsters-helped-hedge-funds-beat-the-crash">a Bloomberg report that said several hedge funds bought in-depth private polls showing that Leave was the likely winner</a> even though less-robust polls for the media were tipping Remain.</p><p>The report also says that Nigel Farage, the leader of the United Kingdom Independence Party, made predictions on the night of the vote that turned out to be wrong, even though he had been supplied with information from two private polls that predicted the correct outcome.</p><p>A source who has been in the FX trading world for years told Business Insider that his favourite speculative theory about Farage's statements was that someone used them to place a massive "knock-in short" option strategy on the pound. Such a bet would require the pound hit a specific price before falling - something that a lack of liquidity in the market indicated was unlikely to happen on the night.</p><p>And yet the pound did exactly that.</p><p>If the theory is true, they made a lot of money.</p><h2>"A crackpot lunatic conspiracy theory"</h2><p>We can't say what exactly happened. Farage denied to Business Insider that he knew anything about short action on the pound on June 23, 2016. And there is no suggestion that Farage has engaged in any wrongdoing. But FX traders in The City are gossiping. Below is our explanation of the Brexit "knock-in short" theory, as told to us by one trader.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table click-to-enlarge"><div><div class="image on-image"><a title_source="PoundSterlingLive.com" title_caption="" class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5b571fc43b49fc35008b4635-960/gbp vs usd on june 23 2016 brexit short farage.png"><span class="sprites click-to-enlarge-icon" title="Click to enlarge"></span><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5b571fc43b49fc35008b4635-1271/gbp vs usd on june 23 2016 brexit short farage.png" border="0" alt="GBP vs USD on June 23 2016 brexit short farage" data-mce-source="PoundSterlingLive.com" data-link="https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eur/5082-pound-to-euro-exchange-rate-3434" /></a><p class="source"><span><a href="https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eur/5082-pound-to-euro-exchange-rate-3434">PoundSterlingLive.com</a></span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>Farage told Business Insider that the theory is "a crackpot lunatic conspiracy theory." He points out that most polling companies, including YouGov - which had embedded itself in a hedge fund's office on the evening of the vote - got their pro-Remain predictions wrong, just like he did. He believed their data, he says.</p><p>Ken Veksler, the director of Accumen Management, who has traded currency for 22 years, told Business Insider that he thinks the "knock-in short" theory is plausible: "Is it possible? Most certainly yes. Is it probable? In the absence of knowing for certain, I'm inclined to say ... maybe?!"</p><p>Another trader, FX strategist Viraj Patel of ING, told Business Insider that "you can make the position that there was a knock-in short." Of course, like everyone else, he says it cannot be proven either way.</p><p>And Jordan Rochester, G10 FX strategist at Nomura, said via email, "Knock-in shorts could definitely have been triggered, (i.e. a put spread with a knock in at a higher strike than current spot that expires worthless if not triggered = makes it very cheap but potentially very valuable given what happened on Brexit). But I have to say it would have been a heroic assumption in advance to have bought a GBPUSD put with a knock-in at 1.50." It would have been easier to simply short the pound on the day, he said, and thus the theory seems improbable.</p><p>Regardless, this is what traders have been talking about in the month since the Bloomberg story was published.</p><h2>"I think Remain will edge it"</h2><p>The controversy exists because one of the private hedge-fund polls was done by Survation, a polling company so close to Farage's UKIP that <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-25/brexit-big-short-how-pollsters-helped-hedge-funds-beat-the-crash">the two organisations once shared an office,</a> according to Bloomberg.</p><p>As the referendum voting came to an end, Farage was told that Survation was predicting a Remain victory, Farage confirmed to Business Insider. Separately, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/dae3d7c8-7bb8-11e8-8e67-1e1a0846c475">UKIP-funder Arron Banks had also commissioned a private poll</a>, according to the Financial Times. And both polls were showing that Leave had won.</p><p>On that basis, the pound should have been going down.</p><p>Yet Farage gave two statements to the media that night, saying "I think Remain will edge it."</p><p>Unsurprisingly, once the statements were aired by Sky News and the Press Association after the polls closed at 10 p.m., the pound moved up against the dollar, from around $1.48 where it had been at 8 p.m. to over $1.50 - a significant move for a major currency. Investors, believing Britain would stay inside the EU, were showing their confidence in the British economy by buying up the pound against the dollar.</p><p>They were heading the wrong way.</p><p>Farage told Business Insider that he had given his statements to the press at 8 p.m. that evening, and they were only aired by the media at 10 p.m., after the polls closed. He disregarded the Survation and Banks data because "I didn't believe it. I did not believe Banks was right," he told us. All the other polls showed a Remain win. Farage says he did not become convinced that Leave had won until after several constituencies reported their actual votes, by 2 or 2.30 a.m. that night.</p><p>Significantly, anyone who knew between 8 p.m. and 10 p.m. that Farage was going to say that Remain won <em>even though his polling data said the opposite</em> might have some actionable trading data. Two hours is an eternity in the FX markets.</p><h2>If the Banks and Survation data were reliable, then the pound was likely to fall. So why did it continue to go up?</h2><p>The "knock-in" option theory argues that if the Banks and Survation data were reliable, and Leave was the likely winner, then the pound was likely to fall. So why did it continue to go up?</p><p>The answer is, in part, Farage's statement. Sky News broadcast a statement from him shortly before 10 p.m. that "It looks like Remain will edge it." <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-06-25/sky-news-broadcast-of-farage-concession-statement-and-yougov-poll-video">You can see Farage's "concession" statement on Sky News here</a>, timestamped at 10 p.m. London/11 p.m. Gibraltar, the first constituency to report a result.</p><p>Shortly after that, the Press Association published a statement from Farage that said, "I think Remain will edge it, yes." At least one of those statements was made <em>after</em> Farage had been told by Survation and Banks' pollsters that Leave appeared to have won, Bloomberg reported. (<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/dae3d7c8-7bb8-11e8-8e67-1e1a0846c475">Survation denied supplying the information to Farage</a> when asked about it by the Financial Times.)</p><p>However, Farage told Business Insider this week that he <em>did</em> know about both polls, but he thought they were both likely wrong. And Farage's PR rep, Gawain Towler, wrote a column for The Telegraph in which he said <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/06/26/nigel-farage-referendum-night-no-brexit-short-conspiracy/">he knew that Survation had polling data with more depth than the others before the voting was over</a>.</p><p>"I knew someone had commissioned Damian Lyons-Lowe and his firm Survation. I also knew that the poll was a big one, far bigger than either Ukip or Leave.EU had previously commissioned, but of course the details of the poll could not be released, as public polling while votes are being cast is illegal," Towler wrote.</p><p>At the time the polls closed, the pound had settled at $1.48 while everyone waited for the actual results. There was little liquidity in the spot market, our source says, meaning that traders had locked in their derivative trades, hedged their positions, and no one was trading while they waited for the results to hit the market. "Liquidity was dire," the source says. ING's Patel added that "The only market open was the US. There was really thin liquidity."</p><h2>The lack of liquidity was matched by a lack of exit poll data</h2><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5b5ae3c780eb3535008b46a5-1271/sterling-dollar knock in short.png" border="0" alt="sterling dollar knock in short" data-mce-source="PoundSterlingLive" data-mce-caption="Chart based on PoundSterlingLive's coverage of price action on the night of the vote." data-link="https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eur/5082-pound-to-euro-exchange-rate-3434" /><p class="source"><span><a href="https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eur/5082-pound-to-euro-exchange-rate-3434">PoundSterlingLive</a></span></p><p class="caption">Chart based on PoundSterlingLive's coverage of price action on the night of the vote.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>Historically, official exit polls - announced by the media when voting stops at 10 p.m. - have moved the currency markets. "Anyone would be aware that the exit poll itself would drive the currency markets," ING's Patel told Business Insider.</p><p>But in 2016, the BBC, ITV and Sky News chose not to commission an exit poll because referendums are so rare in Britain they had no comparable historic data to ensure the results were reliable. "Polls mattered materially" during the Brexit campaign, Patel said. "Especially on the day itself and the days before. Even comments from politicians were driving the pound."</p><p>Into that vacuum fell Farage's "concession." Sky led its post-10 p.m. results coverage with Farage's statement, not a prediction of the results. The statement functioned as a concrete piece of public data from a leading politician that indicated a result. In effect, it carried the equivalent weight of an exit poll.</p><p>And only <em>after</em> Farage's "concession" did the pound go above $1.50.</p><p>In a "knock-in short," an investor makes a short bet but the position isn't "knocked-in" until the pound hits a certain price. Within minutes of Farage's statement being broadcast, the pound moved upward from $1.48.80. Buyers in the spot market plunged into the pound, driving up the price.</p><p>As it neared $1.50, the price declined a bit. That is noteworthy because it is a possible sign of sellers "defending" their position in the hopes of keeping it under $1.50. In a "knock-in" short, the counterparty risks losing money if the price target is triggered. So counterparty investors had an incentive to sell pounds in hopes of keeping it below the $1.50 trigger, the theory says. The pound's brief decline <em>after</em> it rose from $1.48 but <em>before</em> it hit $1.50 therefore looks like circumstantial evidence that someone was trying to prevent the pound from reaching $1.50.</p><p>But the pound broke upward again, cresting at nearly $150.02.</p><p>With the knock-in triggered, the sellers ended their defence and the pound went into an immediate freefall down to $1.30 in early August &amp;mdash a historically swift and brutal collapse. (<a href="https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eur/5082-pound-to-euro-exchange-rate-3434">There is a detailed account of the pound's progress on the night at PoundSterlingLive.com</a>.)</p><h2>"You have to have balls the size of asteroids to put it on"</h2><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table click-to-enlarge"><div><div class="image on-image"><a title_source="Twitter" title_caption="Leave supporters believed the pound would accurately signal whether the vote had been won or lost." class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5b572886c171cb3f008b45f6-960/leaveeu party cheer falling pound brexit.png"><span class="sprites click-to-enlarge-icon" title="Click to enlarge"></span><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5b572886c171cb3f008b45f6-1820/leaveeu party cheer falling pound brexit.png" border="0" alt="Leave.EU party cheer falling pound brexit" data-mce-source="Twitter" data-mce-caption="Leave supporters believed the pound would accurately signal whether the vote had been won or lost." /></a><p class="source"><span>Twitter</span></p><p class="caption">Leave supporters believed the pound would accurately signal whether the vote had been won or lost.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>In this case, our source speculates that the knock-in trigger was $1.50 and the short position was initiated at $1.55, meaning the investor would gain the difference between $1.55 and anything below that, minus the cost of the trade when the trade was closed out. Crucially, the bet wouldn't pay off if the pound fell from $1.48. It had to go above $1.50 first. In percentage terms, the pound's decline was 13% into August. But FX trades are leveraged or done on margin, so anyone who held a short position earned many multiples of that. Our source believes the cumulative value of the trade was probably somewhere like $500 million.</p><p>"You have to have balls the size of asteroids to put it on," our source says.</p><p>Our source admits there is no evidence that Farage's statements were coordinated with a knock-in trade. The reason people are still talking about it is that "it looks too clean to be coincidental," he says. Another aspect fuelling the gossip was the lack of liquidity. "The less liquidity you have the less it takes to push the market around," the source says, magnifying the effect of Farage's statements. "You literally need to know nothing other than what a correctly uttered phrase would do to the market."</p><p>Patel agrees: "Even the smallest of players could drive the price" because liquidity was so low.</p><p>Farage laughed out loud when Business Insider discussed the theory with him. "I think the Russians might have done it! ... I personally made $200 million!" he said. "You're all off your heads!"</p><p><em>If you have any information on who shorted the pound - and why - on the night of the Brexit vote please email jedwards@businessinsider.com. Correspondence will be treated in confidence.</em></p> <p class="tagline">Our Brexit Insider Facebook group is the best place for up-to-date news and analysis about Britain's departure from the EU, direct from Business Insider's political reporters. Join <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/267178180471848/">here.</a></p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/lebron-james-spends-millions-cleveland-cavs-nba-finals-champions-2016-6">How LeBron James makes and spends his millions</a></h3>        <div>            <iframe class="bijwplayerclass" data-player="jwplayer" src="https://content.jwplatform.com/players/7Yz4qsdG-CEZHWCBG.html" width="100%" height="100%" frameborder="0" scrolling="auto" style="margin:0px;" allowfullscreen=""></iframe><script>function receiveMessage(event){ console.log(event.data.fullscreen); Android.fullscreen(event.data.fullscreen); }window.addEventListener("message", receiveMessage, false);</script>        </div>    </div>

FX traders tell us why they're still talking about Nigel Farage and the 'crackpot lunatic conspiracy theory' of a massive short against the pound on the night of the Brexit vote

<p><div class="image-container float_right" style="width:400px"><div class="image"><img src="http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/517987206bb3f7561a000001-800-600/8640525885_078573744f_b.jpg?maxX=400" border="0" alt="8640525885_078573744f_b" width="400" /></div><p class="caption">Two members of crew 128A roam the <keyword id="130981" type="ENTERTAINMENT" weightage="60" keywordseo="Utah">Utah</keyword> desert with air supply packs.</p></div>The San Rafael Swell in central Utah is a massive dome of layered rocks, surrounded by a Delaware-sized maze of deep canyons and multi-colored cliffs.</p>
<p><span>More than a decade ago, </span><a href="https://www.facebook.com/RobZubrin" target="_blank">Robert Zubrin</a><span>, author of "</span><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/145160811X/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=145160811X&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=thebusiinsi-20">The Case for Mars</a>,<span>" whom we spoke to over the phone, </span><span>recognized the potential of this environment — and several others around the globe — to serve as a testing ground for manned <keyword id="47638" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Mars">Mars</keyword> missions.</span></p>
<p>[<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/mars-desert-research-station-2013-3" target="_blank">See photos of the Mars Desert Research Station</a>]</p>
<p>Aside from an interstate that slices through the scenic landscape, this patch of desert sits virtually untouched.</p>
<p>The region's terrain and remoteness makes it one of the best analogs for Mars that exists on Earth.</p>
<p>Zubrin founded the <a href="http://www.marssociety.org/" target="_blank">Mars Society</a> in 1998, of which he is currently president, and built two simulated Mars exploration stations — one in the Canadian Arctic and one in Utah. The Arctic location is more "Mars-like," but has taken a backseat to Utah's Mars Desert Research Station (MDRS), where it is less expensive to live and conduct experiments.</p>
<p>For two weeks at a time, a six-person team composed of scientists and students cuts ties with civilization to don bulky spacesuits, zip around on all-terrain vehicles, and collect rock samples.</p>
<p>The idea is for team members to operate as if they were really bopping around the Red Planet, from the clothes they would be required to wear outside of their spacecraft to the foods they would eat.</p>
<p>This is a dress rehearsal for sending humans to Mars, Zubrin told Business Insider, quickly brushing off the suggestion that it sounds an "awful lot like <keyword id="41531" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="space">space</keyword> camp with fancier equipment." </p>
<p><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">"It's not that at all," he said.</span></p>
<p><strong>This is not space camp</strong></p>
<p>In 2004, Jack Jones, an engineer at <keyword id="6360409" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="NASA">NASA</keyword>'s Jet Propulsion Laboratory worked with Zubrin on a <a href="http://mars.jpl.nasa.gov/programmissions/missions/missiontypes/balloons/" target="_blank">solar-heated balloon designed to land on Mars</a>. Although the space agency decided not to fund the project, Jones described Zubrin as an "extremely enthusiastic, creative, and talented engineer."</p>
<p>As for Zubrin's latest project, the Mars research station "sounds like a fantastic simulation of an actual manned Mars planetary mission," Jones told Business Insider.   </p>
<p>Zubrin, 61, grew up during a period when America's leadership was engaged in a fierce competition to dominate space exploration.   </p>
<p>"I was 17 when we landed on the moon, and if anyone had told me then that I'd be 61 and we'd have not landed on Mars — or even that people were not going to the Moon anymore — I would have thought they were nuts," said Zubrin. "We were on the brink of opening up space, and we just stopped."</p>
<p><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">Several companies are now betting on </span><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/nasas-wearable-robot-suit-2012-11">sending the first humans to Mars</a><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;"> by the end of the century. </span><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">Recent space initiatives like </span><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/mars-curiosity-rover-rock-sample-analysis-2013-3">NASA's Mars Curiosity</a><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;"> rover and </span><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/deep-space-industry-asteroid-mining-plan-2013-2">plans to mine an asteroid</a><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;"> have opened the door to a new era of deep space projects.</span></p>
<p><strong>The case for Mars</strong></p>
<p>People don't <em>need</em> to visit Mars. Then again, Christopher Columbus didn't have to risk his life to sail across the ocean in search of new land. But he did, and our global perspective expanded because of it.</p>
<p><strong><div class="image-container float_left" style="width:618px"><div class="image"><img src="http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/517987f96bb3f70a16000010-800-529/8380845551_3fdcd33f8b_b.jpg" border="0" alt="Mars Desert Research Station" width="618" /></div><p class="source">Mars Desert Research Station</p><p class="caption">A view of the Mars Desert Research Station in the daytime.</p></div></strong></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">Humans are naturally curious. By exploring space, we not only fulfill an innate human desire, we also help society evolve by gaining information about the diversity of life in the universe.</span></p>
<p>Plus, Earth won't be around forever. If we challenge ourselves now, then "200 years from now there will be branches of a new civilization on Mars," said Zubrin.</p>
<p><strong>A dry run for Mars</strong></p>
<p>Beyond safety, staying true to the simulation has been Zubrin's main priority since he commanded the very first desert Mars crew about 10 years ago.</p>
<p>That means crew members cannot step outside of their cylindrical "space habitat" without the proper gear and air supply packs; they must repair their own equipment; handle fieldwork and lab work; grow their own food; and communicate with remote <keyword id="41551" type="ENTERTAINMENT" weightage="100" keywordseo="science">science</keyword> teams.</p>
<p>"My main thing is figuring out how to conduct an effective field exploration while handling all constraints you would find on Mars," he said. "If you could get a really valuable sample by taking off the glove, I would say 'no, we'll come back tomorrow with the right tool to gather the sample with our space glove on.'"</p>
<p>It's about answering all the "what ifs?" that might pop up in a foreign and likely hostile environment.</p>
<p>For example, what are the most useful pieces of field equipment? An enclosed SUV that offers protection against the elements, or an open vehicle that requires the driver to wear a spacesuit, but provides the flexibility of being able to reach down and pick up a sample? And, do you put the whole crew on one rotation or on watches so they are up at different times?</p>
<p>Each team goes for two weeks at a time and sets their own goals. Some teams are less concerned about mastering the art of human space exploration; they would rather break character for the sake of science.</p>
<p>"Those are two different methods," said Zubrin. "If one team needed to stray from the simulation in order to test ground-penetrating radar, for example, they would do it."</p>

<p><strong>The human challenge</strong></p>
<p>Isolation, boredom, decreased activity, and lack of sleep are all concerns in sending astronauts on an exploration of deep space. </p>
<p>A 520-day simulated Mars mission conducted between 2010 and 2011 by Russian scientists found that being cooped up for that long <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/how-sleep-was-affected-in-a-simulated-mission-to-mars-2013-1">made the six-man crew sleepy, slow, and grumpy</a> — not good traits for astronauts.</p>
<p>NASA, too, has long claimed that the most formidable challenge humans would face on Mars would be isolation and boredom.</p>
<p>That's a complete mistake, says Zubrin. If you look at human history, there are plenty of instances where people were far more isolated than they will be on a trip to Mars. </p>
<p>NASA's finding was largely based on human factor studies of U.S. Navy enlisted men on a base in Antarctica.</p>
<p>"Those guys were bored," said Zubrin. "They didn't want to be there. They wanted to be in San Diego where they can go out on the pier on Friday night and pick up girls."</p>
<p>Test runs at Mars Society's research station in the Arctic, on the other hand, have found that overwork, not boredom, is the key challenge.</p>
<p>The Arctic team was primarily composed of scientists who were very driven. These researchers had waited a long time to be placed in this environment to do their research. They were so overzealous that they had to be ordered to stop working at night. </p>
<p>The Mars mission is "not about sitting in a room playing chess waiting for your 500 days to be up," said Zubrin.</p>
<p><strong style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">The perfect crew</strong></p>
<p><strong><div class="image-container float_right" style="width:618px"><div class="image"><img src="http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/5179884169bedddf3900000e-800-580/8411881020_7c4b0fcdec_b.jpg" border="0" alt="Mars Desert Research Station" width="618" /></div><p class="source"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/mdrsphotos/8411881020/in/set-72157632520478437">Mars Desert Research Station</a></p><p class="caption">A member of Crew 122 cruises around on an ATV.</p></div></strong></p>
<p>The reality is that a Mars mission would take at least two and a half years, not a brief two weeks in the remote desert.  </p>
<p>If the desert research station was playing by those rules, however, then the base would have been home to just four crews in the last decade, as opposed to 127.  </p>
<p>Zubrin argues that if the goal is make general inferences about how humans interact with each other under trying circumstances, then you need larger numbers of people. Otherwise, the data could be seriously skewed based on who was picked for the crew. </p>
<p>There are plenty of instances, he said, where a person performed well in one crew and bad in another.</p>
<p>To get involved, individuals or groups, typically from a university or foreign country, can respond to an annual open call for volunteers.</p>
<p>Although the society provides food, housing, and equipment, accepted applicants will have to shell out $1,000, while students pay $500.</p>
<p>Explorers have come in all different shapes and sizes: all men crews, all women, all Austrian, all American, mixed international, young crews, and old crews. The purpose is to find the ideal combination of age, race, skill, and personality types to make up the first human team that blasts off to Mars. </p>
<p>Zubrin acknowledges that MDRS is not the final word in Mars research. It should be supplemented by insights and studies from organizations, like NASA. </p>
<p>Based on that information, Zubrin believes the next step would be to pick four very promising crews based on different principles.   </p>
<p>It then becomes a game of survival of the fittest — placing crews under the most Mars-like environment for at least one year and enforcing the most Mars-like rules.</p>
<p>The team that performs the best, is the the crew you would want to send to Mars.</p>

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