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<ul><li>India’s inflation outlook has changed in the last few months due to rising vegetable prices along with a few pulses and grains.</li><li>While MPC is expected to increase its inflation projections it might not rush into a rate hike in August, economists say.</li><li>While central banks of developed economies are still hiking interest rates, developed economies are actively decoupling. </li></ul>Even those who aren’t keeping a keen eye on inflation would have noticed the surge in food prices in the last few months and their effect on Indian household budgets. However, economists believe that in the upcoming August meeting, <keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to keep base interest rates unchanged. In the last few months, there have been many inflation shocks, especially with regards to rising tomato prices along with that of a few pulses and grains. According to a report by Crisil, the cost of a vegetarian thali went up by 28% and non-vegetarian thalis went up by 11% in July, as compared to June. “Over the past month, surging food prices have changed India’s inflation outlook. While vegetable prices should eventually cool, pulse and cereal prices could prove stickier. We now expect headline inflation to rise to 6-6.5% in July/August, from 4.8% in June, before settling in a 5-6% range for the rest of FY24,” said Nomura. ‘Policy settings on hold’ Though prices are skyrocketing, most economists believe that the food inflation is transitory or seasonal. Moreso, core inflation has been steady and wholesale price inflation too has been cooling off, providing comfort. All these factors indicate that the MPC will keep interest rates paused like it did in the last two meetings. “We expect the MPC to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% at the 10 August meeting, flagging resilient economic growth, and anchored underlying inflation as reasons to monitor incoming economic data, while keeping policy settings on hold,” said Rahul Bajoria, MD &amp; head of EM Asia (ex-China) economics at Barclays. The RBI may not want to hurry to cut rates, says Deepak Jasani, head of retail research at HDFC Securities. “Inflation could remain elevated in July and August and if the El Nino pattern plays out in the latter half of the monsoon, this era of high inflation could continue till the end of this calendar. Oil prices globally have also started to inch up. However, we do not expect the RBI to jump the gun and resume rate hikes in its August meeting,” he added. The MPC is also expected to maintain its status quo on its "withdrawal of accommodation" stance as well. However, economists do expect the RBI to alter its inflation projections for the year, while keeping growth projections intact. “There are no new major headwinds to growth projections. Stronger than expected momentum in domestic investments resulted in major international agencies like IMF revising up India's growth projections to 6.1% from 5.9% earlier this year. We expect RBI to maintain its growth projections at 6.5% for FY24,” said a report by CARE Edge. Mixed messages from global markets While most nations across the globe had started increasing interest rates around May last year to tackle the global inflation problem — they have been coming off it in a varied manner. The world’s largest economy, the US, seems to be in the midst of more interest rate hikes. The US Fed hiked its policy rate by 25 bps last month, and experts expect a few more going ahead. The Bank of England and European Central Bank are still hiking policy rates but a few central banks of emerging markets like China and Brazil have already started their rate-cutting journey. “Recent developments show early signs of a monetary policy decoupling globally influenced by different macroeconomic conditions,” says CARE Edge. India however can go either way as the RBI Governor <keyword id="6359111" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="shaktikanta-das" source="Orion">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> has repeatedly said that it was a pause not a pivot in the earlier MPC meeting outcome. Most economists in India too had hoped for rate cuts in the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/with-inflation-cooling-rbi-may-slash-interest-rates-by-50-bps-this-financial-year/articleshow/100531780.cms">second half of the current financial year</a>, but quickly tempered their hopes after the change in inflation dynamics. Along with a stable currency, large FPI inflows and narrowing trade deficit there are uncertainties like an erratic monsoon and El Nino conditions which may yet play out. In such a scenario, the Shaktikanta Das led panel will have to balance the growth momentum and yet stick to its mandated inflation watch. Tricky, to say the least. MPC decisions in 2023 <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; table-layout: fixed; width: 468pt;"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Meeting </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Base rates </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">June meet </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Rates kept unchanged </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">April meet </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Rates kept unchanged </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">February meet </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Rates hikes by 25 basis points to 6.5% </td></tr></tbody></table>

RBI MPC expected to ‘pause and watch’ how inflation plays out

Tractors & commercial vehicles drive auto sales in February but El Niño threat looms large

<ul><li>The <keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword> on Friday cut its economic growth estimate for fiscal year 2023 to 7% from 7.2% forecast earlier.</li><li>India’s central bank has lowered its growth estimates due to constant geopolitical tensions, monetary policy tightening across nations and elevated inflation.</li><li>Several rating agencies have also recently trimmed their annual growth rate projections after GDP growth rate fell short of expectations in the past quarters.</li></ul>The <keyword id="6354335" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="Orion">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) on Friday cut its economic growth estimate for fiscal year 2023 to 7% from 7.2% forecast earlier. While it expects GDP growth to drop to 4.6% in the third and fourth quarter, respectively, from the estimated 6.3% in the second quarter, the broad expectation is that economic activity will recover by the first quarter of the next fiscal year. India’s central bank has lowered its growth estimates on risks emanating from geopolitical tensions, monetary policy tightening across nations and elevated inflation. Global growth is expected to slow down from 6.1% in 2021 to 3.2% in 2022 as the outlook is “gloomy and more uncertain,” <keyword id="7268643" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi-governor-shaktikanta-das" source="Orion">RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das</keyword> said in his speech on Friday. “Against this challenging global environment, economic activity in India remains stable. While real GDP growth in Q1:2022-23 turned out to be lower than our expectations, the late recovery in kharif sowing, the comfortable reservoir levels, improvement in capacity utilisation, buoyant bank credit expansion and government’s continued thrust on capital expenditure are expected to support aggregate demand and output in H2:2022-23,” Das said. Markets reacted positively to the 50-basis-point rate hike on Friday, as the outlook for India is relatively better than most developed economies, which are expected to slip into recession in the aftermath of the massive rate hike cycle undertaken earlier this year. India’s been battling several of these risks, but with capital outflows abating and prices of several commodities cooling, the risk to the external sector has abated. India’s import cover stands at nine months, from 20 months a year ago. There’s been much talk about India’s decoupling from the rest of the world, with many believing that India is an oasis in the midst of a global sand storm. While there’s no doubt that India has been hit by the fallout of the war and rate hikes undertaken by central banks across developed markets, economic activity remains stable. The positive commentary by the RBI Governor helped cheer markets despite the rate hike. Inflation in India has been lower than the double-digit spikes seen in many other developed countries. The fight against inflation may call for more rate hikes by the RBI, but robust demand could save the day for economic growth. With rainfall coming in higher than the long-period average across most parts of India, higher rural consumption could provide a kicker to economic growth this festive season. According to Nomura’s India economist and vice president, Aurodeep Nandi, “The relatively unchanged growth and inflation outlook by the RBI indicates that the policy arithmetic hasn’t materially changed for it.” While the Indian economy continues to battle the aftershocks of the pandemic, war in Ukraine and aggressive rate tightening cycle in most developed markets, the havoc is still not as bad as it has been for many other economies. Real economic growth in the April-June quarter of the current fiscal year was at 13.5% on a year-on-year basis, surpassing the pre-pandemic level by 3.8%. This growth has been driven by private consumption largely and investment demand. High frequency indicators also suggest that the second half of the fiscal should continue to be buoyant. Not just the RBI, but several rating agencies have also recently trimmed their annual growth rate projections after the GDP growth rate fell short of expectations in the past quarters. “Rising interest rates, uneven distribution of monsoons and slowing global growth will dampen economic momentum,” said Moody’s while cutting growth forecasts on September 1. It cut calendar year 2023 growth rate projections to 5.2%. <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; table-layout: fixed; width: 468pt;"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Institution </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">GDP forecast cut FY23 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Earlier projection </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Moody’s </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">5.2% (Calendar year 2023) </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">5.4% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">International Monetary Fund (IMF) </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.4% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">8.2% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Nomura </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">4.7% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">5.4% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">FICCI </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.4% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Goldman Sachs </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.2% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Asian Development Bank </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.5% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">CRISIL </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.3% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.8% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">SBI </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">6.8% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.5% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">YES Bank </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">6.9% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7% </td></tr></tbody></table> With prices of most commodities coming off the highs seen during the first half of the fiscal year, markets are betting on a better second half. The RBI Governor echoed this sentiment on Friday in his speech. The August consumer price inflation remains elevated and above the upper tolerance band of the RBI, however, a good kharif crop and declining prices of most commodities could bring some respite to inflation. Das in his speech said: “The recent correction in global commodity prices including crude oil, if sustained, may ease cost pressures in the coming months. The inflation trajectory remains clouded with uncertainties arising from continuing geopolitical tensions and nervous global financial market sentiments.” Clearly, the battle against inflation is not over and more rate hikes are in the offing. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/rbi-hikes-repo-rate-by-50-bps-taking-it-to-a-three-year-high-of-5-9-das-says-inflation-at-alarmingly-high-levels/articleshow/94550429.cms">RBI hikes repo rate by 50 bps, taking it to a three-year high of 5.9% – Das says inflation at ‘alarmingly high levels’ across jurisdictions</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/e-commerce-sales-will-drive-credit-cards-spends-in-september-says-report/articleshow/94538013.cms">E-commerce sales will drive credit cards spends in September, says report</a>

RBI cuts FY23 GDP growth forecast to 7% as developed world heads into recession

<ul><li>India’s <keyword id="44910" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gdp-growth" source="Orion">GDP growth</keyword> for the April-June quarter came below estimates at 13.5% percent.</li><li>Rating agencies have trimmed their annual growth rate projections after the quarterly data was released by the government.</li><li>"We strongly believe that the estimation of manufacturing sector growth needs serious introspection in the sense that IIP is still indexed at 2012 base,” said SBI Ecowrap.</li><li>Analysts are worried that organizations may not go through with all the capex plans that they have announced.</li></ul>The GDP growth rate for the April-June quarter which came in at 13.5%, fell short of expectations. As a result, rating agencies already lowered their annual estimates, yet again. Most of the forecasts now believe that Indian GDP will grow at 7% or below. The Reserve Bank of India however believes that it will grow at 7.2%. SBI Ecowrap trimmed its estimates as it had expected April-June GDP to grow at 15.7%. "We strongly believe that the estimation of manufacturing sector growth needs serious introspection in the sense that IIP is still indexed at 2012 base," the report said. In addition to SBI Ecowrap, Citibank and Goldman Sachs too trimmed their projections. “Rising interest rates, uneven distribution of monsoons and slowing global growth will dampen economic momentum,” said Moody’s yesterday. It cut calendar year 2023 growth rate projections to 5.2%. This is the second round of trimming by agencies after seven of them slashed their growth rate projections after the Jan-Mar quarter data was released by the government. New set of downgrades <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; table-layout: fixed; width: 468pt;"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Institution </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">GDP forecast cut FY23 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Earlier projection </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">SBI </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">6.8% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.5% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Citibank </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">6.7% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">8% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Goldman Sachs </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.2% </td></tr></tbody></table> A lot has changed since the beginning of the year as many agencies hoped that <keyword id="113229" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india-gdp" source="Orion">India GDP</keyword> growth would be above 7%. A big jolt to this belief came this May itself when the following projections have been trimmed. Downgrades after Jan-Mar quarter GDP data release <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; table-layout: fixed; width: 468pt;"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Institution </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">GDP forecast cut FY23 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Earlier projection </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Moody’s </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">5.2% (Calendar year 2023) </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">5.4% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">YES Bank </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">6.9% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">International Monetary Fund (IMF) </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.4% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">8.2% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Nomura </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">4.7% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">5.4% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">FICCI </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.4% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Asian Development Bank </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.2% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.5% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">CRISIL </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.3% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.8% </td></tr></tbody></table> High inflation rate is worrying most analysts. “Growth challenges are likely to remain in FY23 and the K-shaped recovery is expected to continue. While many remain hopeful of a recovery in private sector capex, we remain skeptical as recent RBI data indicates that even as the number of projects announced for FY23 are higher than the previous year, the expected cumulative spend remains lower than the pre-pandemic levels,” said a report by YES Bank on August 31. Most analysts are worried that organizations may not go through with all the high capex plans that they have announced. They maintain a bias towards more downward revisions unless domestic inflation moderates or global commodity prices cool meaningfully. “Overall, it confirms that growth recovery is not so strong in India. It ideally implies that monetary tightening should not be very aggressive. However, it appears that the terminal repo rate will be 5.75-6% in this cycle with one or two more rate hikes, ending the cycle in December 2022,” said Nikhil Gupta, chief economist at Motilal Oswal Financial Services group. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/laxman-narasimhan-named-as-the-ceo-of-coffee-chain-starbucks/articleshow/93939910.cms">Laxman Narasimhan named as the CEO of coffee chain Starbucks</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/recession-in-the-us-may-cool-off-attrition-in-it-sector-along-with-revenues/articleshow/93942471.cms">Recession in the US may cool off attrition in IT sector along with revenues</a>

Rating agencies revise GDP growth estimates yet again, most now peg it below 7%

<ul><li><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image">Warner Bros.</div></div></div>High-frequency traders, made famous in Michael Lewis' "Flash Boys," are in trouble. </li><li>Low volatility and rising operational costs are making it harder for HFTs to churn out the revenues they once did.</li><li>HFTs are shifting their focus to alternative businesses. </li></ul>Wall Street's fastest traders are going to need a lot more than speed if they're going to survive. High-frequency traders, the Wall Streeters made famous by Michael Lewis' <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Flash-Boys-Wall-Street-Revolt/dp/0393351599">Flash Boys</a>, use their technology to get to trades ahead of the competition. For years, this strategy raked in billions. But low volatility and rising operational costs have squeezed HFTs, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/kcg-holdings-and-virtu-financial-merger-2017-4">precipitating a wave of consolidation</a> and closures."HFT firms have been facing stiff headwinds due to low volatility," Richard Repetto, an analyst at Sandler O'Neill + Partners told Business Insider in an email. "Both implied and intraday volatility have been at lows making it difficult for HFTs to earn meaningful spreads."Total revenues brought in by HFTs from equity trading have dropped over 85% from $7.2 billion in 2009 to $1.1 billion in 2016, according to data from the <a href="https://www.tabbgroup.com/">TABB Group</a>. The consultancy expects revenues to slide to $900 million this year.But many HFTs are looking forward and revamping their business models to grow despite this environment. "We remain confident that the core results are a consequence of the terrible environment for a market-maker," Douglas Cifu, the CEO of Virtu Financial, a publicly traded HFT, said during an earnings call on August 10. "While we are not happy with the results, we are proactively managing our business to grow and to continue to earn an acceptable return in this environment."<h2>Pesky volatility</h2><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">Andy Kiersz. Data from Bloomberg.</div></div></div>High-frequency traders have seen revenues decline for years, but the historically low volatility of the past year has led to a breaking point."When markets don't move much, demand for the job high-frequency traders do is low," Dave Weisberger, the head of equities at ViableMkts, a market structure technology company, said. "It's simple supply and demand."As liquidity providers, HFTs are scanning the markets for opportunities in which buyers and sellers aren't matched up. But when volatility is too low, like it has been for the past four months, those opportunities are hard to come by because there are fewer price swings. Similarly, high volatility is undesirable as well. In a sense, HFT is kind of like surfing. A surfer wants to hit the waves during high-tide - not during low-tide or a monsoon. Here's Michael Antonelli, an institutional equity sales trader and managing director at Robert W. Baird &amp; Co, a Milwaukee-based firm (emphasis is our own):It's an unusual year because there's barely been any major market moving events. Just headlines. No major macro hiccups. No Ebola scare. Generally, you are seeing a global upturn in macro data. If you go across the world, you have a lot of stock markets doing really well. They are really strong. You turn on the Bloomberg and almost everything is green.Volatility is cyclical and so this calm environment will not persist indefinitely. But even if volatility returns to normal levels, the industry won't see the revenues it did three or four years ago, according to Larry Tabb, founder and chairman of TABB Group."We could probably get to $1 billion or $1.5 billion," Tabb told Business Insider."But not $2 billion or $3 billion."<h2>Volatility is just part of the equation</h2>Low volatility is just one issue facing HFTs, according to Don Ross, CEO of PDQ Enterprises, an equity trading platform provider. "Low volatility is compounding an issue high-frequency traders have been facing for years: rising exchange costs," Ross told Business Insider. <div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_left"><div><div class="image on-image">Thomson ReutersServers for data storage are seen at Advania's Thor Data Center in Hafnarfjordur, Iceland</div></div></div>HFTs pay exchanges such as Nasdaq and the NYSE to store their servers in the same building as the matching engines. But the price of this service, referred to as colocation, has become more expensive as exchanges continue to roll out more levels of service, according to Weisberger."It started with one gig connection to the matching engine, then they offered 10 gig connection, then 40 gig connection," he said. "[High-frequency traders] don't necessarily want more," Weisberger said. "They just don't want to be one-upped by the competition."This spike in costs has angered a lot of folks in the industry, according to <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-exchanges-market-data-cost-becoming-big-issue-2016-10">reporting by Business Insider's Matt Turner</a>. "[High costs are] the new normal," Tabb said. <h2>What's next?</h2>HFTs can't rely on speed any longer. In order to adapt to the new environment, they'll have to shift the focus of their technology, according to Gaurav Chakravorty, the CEO of qplum, from speed to making predictions. Chakravorty previously worked at Tower Research, one of the premier HFTs, and his firm recently released a report on innovation in trading. He said high-frequency trading firms are "picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer.""HFTs should reduce the single minded focus on latency," Chakravorty said."And they should look for profit opportunities using deep learning technology."Deep learning tech allows computers to learn things without being programmed to do so. According to Chakravorty, HFTs can use deep learning tech to identify signals, such as when someone cancels an order, that can lead to money-making opportunities. Chakravorty said HFTs are good at developing technology so making the shift wouldn't be difficult. But it will cost money, according to Goldman Sachs."Further, technological advances in the space will require continued investments to stay competitive," the bank said. Mark Smith, the CEO of Symbiont, a blockchain technology company, told Business Insider he knows of HFTs that are looking to use their technology to tap into profit opportunities in the private markets. "There are two HFTs I've talked to who are looking for undervalued assets in the private market," Smith said. "With fewer companies going public there are more opportunities there." HFTs are also looking to expand their technological offerings. Virtu Financial, for instance, notably partnered with JPMorgan to provide the bank with technology to enhance its electronic trading operations. Sun Trading, a Chicago-based high-frequency trading firm, provides another example. It announced a technology partnership on August 20 with Instinet, a division of Japanese bank Nomura, to help it prepare for changes to European regulations. Joe Ciolli contributed reporting. <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/16b-hedge-fund-cio-easy-quantitative-trading-2017-7">A $16 billion hedge fund CIO gives an easy explanation of quantitative trading</a></h3> <div> </div> </div>

The fastest traders on Wall Street are in trouble

NEW DELHI: As we inch closer to the Budget 2014, Dalal Street is abuzz with expectations of strong pro-growth reforms from Finance Minister Arun Jaitley. 
 
Given high expectations from the government, all attempts are expected to be made to present a comprehensive Union budget. However, the residual period until the next Budget to be presented is relatively small. 
 
Experts feel that the focus of the new government would be more on creating opportunities for retail investors in financial markets. But it is definitely not going to be a cakewalk for them. 
 
“The budget itself is not going to be a cakewalk. In fact, it is going to be a tight rope walk for the government,” said Killol Pandya, Senior Fund Manager-Debt, LIC Nomura MF. 
 
“The economy has certain structural and macro issues which it is facing and the government will be at pains to balance putting our growth story back on track while battling the inflation bugbear,” he added. 
 
The fact is that most of the steps which the government can take to promote growth and kick start the economy will have short-term inflationary ramifications. However, in terms of market performance, analysts see the markets rallying nearly 5-6 per cent in the run-up to the event. 
 
 
 
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Traders carried forward bullish futures bets to the July series on the expiry of the June contracts on Monday on expectations the market could rebound in the run-up to the Union Budget on July 10. 
 
Fresh build-up of positions in Nifty options suggests the benchmark index could gain about 5-6% by the Budget day from the current levels, said an ET report. 
 
Most analysts are of the view that despite escalating tensions in Iraq and depreciating rupee, Indian markets should be able to scale higher from the current levels, supported by strong FII flows and as most of the oil, which is imported, comes from the southern region, which remains unaffected. 
 
“The overweight by international investors in India will be highest in the whole emerging market space and we think it will continue. We think there is a re-rating going on in India,” said Hans Goetti, Head of Investment Asia, BIL. 
 
“We think if there is a new earning cycle start on the back of a stronger economy, then it can grow at about 6.5 per cent for several years, accompanied by higher prices in the equity markets,” he added. 
 
History suggests that the Union Budget’s influence on the market’s short-term performance is declining, but the next budget could still leave a trail of impact. 
 
The upcoming budget could be important because of where India is placed cyclically, what the mandate for the government implies and because this is the first non-Congress government in a decade, say experts. 
 
“Though history suggests that the budget’s influence on short-term performance is declining, expectations (measured by pre-budget performance) are still important in deciding what the market does after the budget,” said Ridham Desai, India Strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a report. 
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“If the pre-budget returns are positive, there is a 90% chance that the post-budget returns are negative,” he added. 
 
We have collated a list of ten stocks which investors can look at ‘buying’ ahead of the Budget 2014, for the next 12 months: 
 
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	Brokerage Firm: BofA-ML 
 
 
Titan Company Ltd: Target price set at Rs 406 
 <keyword id="10899" type="CITY" weightage="40" keywordseo="Titan-Industries">Titan Industries</keyword>, a Tata Group company, is India’s leading watch and jewelry retailer. Titan’s growth can pick up in FY15/16E as SSSG in jewelry bottoms out. This can be led by a favorable macro: easing inflation, possible pick-up in the urban job scenario and wage hikes. 
 While resumption of the sale of <keyword id="18712" type="ENTERTAINMENT" weightage="40" keywordseo="Gold">gold</keyword> coins can improve operating leverage, possible margin benefits due to focus on premiumization in jewelry as well as watches can boost earnings. 
 
ICICI Bank Ltd: Target price set at Rs 1,850 
 
The global investment bank is bullish on ICICI Bank as it has built a strong retail franchise to complement its corporate banking activities and capitalize on the fast-growing retail market. ICICI Bank has expanded distribution to 3,500 branches, allowing it to acquire customers at a very rapid pace and also gain share. 
 
The bank enjoys a strong capital position (Tier 1 at 12.8%), and is well placed to manage credit cycle/regulatory changes and deliver earnings growth of 16-22% through FY15/16. Outperformance should be driven by: 1) Op. efficiency (CI ratio improving to lesser than 38-39% in FY15/16 vs 41% in FY13); and 2) Credit cost at 80bps. 
 
Maruti Suzuki Ltd: Target price set at Rs 2900 
 Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) is a subsidiary of <keyword id="111052" type="CITY" weightage="40" keywordseo="Suzuki-Motor">Suzuki Motor</keyword> Corp, Japan. Set up in 1983, MSIL is presently India’s largest passenger car company which primarily sells compact hatchbacks (65% of volumes), vans and upper sedans. 
 
MSIL is our top pick in the Indian autos space, being best positioned to ride the country’s consumption recovery theme due to its rich product pipeline over the next three years. 
 
The stock deserves a valuation premium due to superior growth prospects (31% EPS CAGR over the forecast period) and also because it is the sole listed proxy in the domestic car industry. 
 
<keyword id="111992" type="CITY" weightage="40" keywordseo="Oil-India-Ltd">Oil India Ltd</keyword>: Target price set at Rs 694 
 
Oil India (OIL) is a state-owned (67.6% stake) E&amp;P company with only onshore production and exploration mainly in north-east India. This region accounts for its entire crude oil and most of its gas production and reserves. 
 
Gas price hike drives a 41-59% YoY rise in FY15E EPS at a gas price of US$6.8-9.0/mmbtu. A rise in oil price net of subsidy drives 34-70% YoY growth in FY15E EPS. FY15E EPS would rise by 60-114% YoY if the prices of both oil &amp; gas increase. 
 
Risk-reward ratio is evenly balanced with the worst-case fair value implying around 30% potential downside, and the best-case fair value implying a potential upside of 16-39%. 
 
Voltas Ltd: Target price set at Rs 282 
 
Voltas, a Tata Group company, is India’s leading air conditioning and engineering services company. It operates in India through an extensive dealer and service network. Cyclical recovery in macro will drive stronger consumer discretionary sales, ie AC. 
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There will better construction demand as well. Sharp expansion of margin led by favourable product mix change will be drive 80% of the 27% earnings CAGR in FY14-17. The stock is cheaper relative to peers and is likely to rerate along with stronger growth. 
 
Analyst: S Ranganathan of LKP 
 
Dishman Pharma: Target price set at Rs 160 
 
Dishman Pharma is an integrated global outsourcing partner in CRAMS for innovator drug companies and derives close to 65 percent of its 1400cr revenues from CRAMS with marketable molecules forming the balance 35 percent of its revenues. 
 
With all its capital expenditure behind, the company has forward integrated its Vitamin-D facility and with a 24 percent sustainable EBIDTA margin we believe that it is now focused on de-leveraging its balance sheet having a debt of 850 cr. 
 
We recommend a BUY on the stock trading at 8x the current year's expected earnings with a price objective of 160. 
 
Zensar Technologies Ltd: Target price set at Rs 500 
 
Zensar Technologies is a Rs 2300-cr software company of the RPG group, which derives two-third of its revenues from ETS (enterprise transmission solutions) and one-third of its revenues from IM (infrastructure management). Zensar has the largest Oracle practice business in India and has a strong focus on digital transformation, which is primarily a consulting-oriented business. 
 
The company has consistently grown at a CAGR of more than 20 percent over the past 5 years both on top-line and bottom-line. Zensar (a debt-free entity) with a sustainable EBIDTA margin of more than 30 percent is well on its way to post a net profit of close to Rs 300 cr this fiscal. BUY with a price objective of Rs 500. 
 
ITNL: Target price set at Rs 250 
 
ILFS Transportation Network Ltd is a leading surface transportation infrastructure company belonging to the ILFS group. We believe that ITNL is the best proxy to play this theme not only in India, but also outside India and could be a prime beneficiary of the road development projects. 
 
This business is highly capital intensive and hence the high debt equity of 3x. ITNL with its 6500cr revenues is well placed to capitalize on the large addressable opportunity as it has attractive EBIDTA margins of 30 percent. Buy ITNL with a price objective of Rs 250. 
 
Escorts Ltd: Target price set at Rs 160 
 
Escorts with business interests in agricultural equipment, construction and railway equipment is the third largest player in tractors and is now launching new products in the mid to heavy segment of tractors and is aggressively foraying into the southern parts of the country where it lacks presence. 
 
The monsoon, although delayed, is expected to gather momentum in the next 3 months, which would also act as a positive trigger for the stock in the coming quarter. ESCORTS trading at 6.5x historical earnings should be bought with a price objective of 160. 
 
Federal Bank: Target price set at Rs 160 
 
Federal Bank was punished rather unjustly for its aggressive lending to the SME sector where it has seen fast traction and we believe that the markets have now factoring in the fact that its asset quality continues to be good with net NPA at 0.74% and provision coverage at a very healthy 84%. 
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The bank has a very healthy CASA of more than 30% and net interest margins are at a healthy 3.3% with branch expansion happening at a faster clip ( it now has 1175 branches) 
 
A quality private sector bank with an able leader available at a compelling price to book of 1.5x should be bought for a price objective of Rs 160. 
 
(Views and recommendations expressed in this section are the analysts’ own and do not represent those of EconomicTimes.com. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any position in the stocks mentioned.)

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