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<ul><li>Billionaire investor <keyword id="831606" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Leon-Cooperman">Leon Cooperman</keyword> <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/06/leon-cooperman-too-much-debt-in-system-stocks-may-be-stuck-for-years.html">told CNBC on Friday</a> that future <keyword id="8924411" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Stock-returns">stock returns</keyword> could average "very little." </li><li>He's also concerned about long-term consequences of <keyword id="1860048" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="The-Federal-Reserve">the Federal Reserve</keyword>'s actions. </li><li>"The Fed is just creating this environment of free money. You have to kind of make a judgement whether that's justified, how long it's going to last and what impact this has on the longer-term outlook," the Omega Advisors chairman said. </li><li>"Who pays for the party when the party is over?" Cooperman added. </li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingestm=ingest">Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories</a>.</li></ul>Billionaire investor Leon Cooperman<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/06/leon-cooperman-too-much-debt-in-system-stocks-may-be-stuck-for-years.html"> told CNBC on Friday</a> that long-term stock returns could be meager thanks to rising national debt and the Federal Reserve's pumping of "free money" into the market."The Fed is just creating this environment of free money," the chairman of Omega Advisors said. "You have to kind of make a judgement whether that's justified, how long it's going to last and what impact this has on the longer-term outlook."While he said the near-term view of the stock market is favorable because of the Fed's policy, and a stimulus and vaccine on the horizon, he has a "dissenting view" longer term because he's concerned about the $20 trillion of national debt in the US. "Who pays for the party when the party is over?" Cooperman added.Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/buy-and-hold-real-estate-investing-from-mcdonalds-to-multimillionaire-2020-11" target="_blank" rel="noopener">From flipping burgers at McDonald's to a self-made multimillionaire: How Willie Mandrell leveraged a simple real-estate investing strategy to acquire 40 units and achieve financial freedom</a>The investor also said that history demonstrates that the forward returns for an investor who buys into the market at its current level of valuation are "not particularly attractive.""I went back and I looked, whenever you bought into the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500_500">S&amp;P 500</a> and you sold at 22 times earnings or more, your five year return forward was near zero, so I would not be surprised if the market averages very little," said Cooperman.This isn't the first time Cooperman's expressed concern about the long term outlook for stocks.<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/31/leon-cooperman-says-returns-will-be-unimpressive-for-a-long-time.html"> He told CNBC in August: </a>"We've been pulling a lot of demand forward. I would expect the future returns will be relatively unimpressive for a long time."Cooperman also said in a <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/leon-cooperman-cheers-tech-stocks-slams-trump-discloses-gold-investment-2020-10-1029639386#">RealVision interview </a>in September, "I have a very conservative view about the market presently, because I'm worried about who pays for the party when the party is over." Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-picking-strategy-6-billion-fund-manager-shares-investing-criteria-2020-11" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Richard Lawrence manages $6 billion and only buys 1 out of every 100 stocks he looks at. He details his simple 4-part recipe for sniffing out the market's next big winner.</a>

Billionaire investor Leon Cooperman says long-term stock returns could be meager, and blames the Fed for 'creating an environment of free money'

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stock-market investors could face “lost decade” of equity appreciation, <keyword id="48032" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Blackstone">Blackstone</keyword>’s Tony James told CNBC.</li><li>High <keyword id="6374680" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="returns">returns</keyword>, and “fear of missing out” buying has created a <keyword id="6357440" type="DEFINITION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Stock-Market">stock market</keyword> that “feels fully valued”.</li><li>Near zero interest rates driving investors into a stock market hungry for yield.</li><li>Over the longer term, rising rates could undermine company <keyword id="6357061" type="SPONSORED" weightage="60" keywordseo="earnings">earnings</keyword>.</li></ul>Investors may not see the kind of returns the stock market has yielded this year for another decade, as companies struggle to grow their earnings in an economy that is in recovery after the coronavirus pandemic, private-equity firm Blackstone's executive vice chairman, Tony James,<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/16/blackstone-warns-of-lost-decade-with-anemic-stock-market-returns.html"> told CNBC's Squawk Box Asia</a> on Wednesday.James said that the healthy level of existing capital returns, plus the "fear-of-missing-out" buying frenzy that has driven US indices to record highs this year, has also created a stock market that "feels very fully valued."As interest rates eventually rise, in line with an improving economic backdrop, companies may face other headwinds in the long-term, and this could lead to disappointing stock returns for investors."I think this could be a lost decade in terms of equity appreciation," James said.Despite the S&amp;P 500 experiencing its largest weekly decline since June last week, investors have once again <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/14/stock-market-today-live.html">returned</a> to the stock market. The index is still up by more than 50% since hitting multi-year lows in March.Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/best-investment-opportunities-strategy-new-bull-market-in-stocks-ms-2020-9?r=US&amp;IR=TIR=T">Morgan Stanley pinpoints the most attractive opportunity it sees for investors as a new bull run takes shape — and shares 3 strategies for generating market-beating returns</a> At the same time, US interest rates <a href="https://apnews.com/507c21034e441490006e877b080d9584">remain</a> near zero, as the Federal Reserve leverages monetary policy to help manage the fallout of the pandemic that stripped over 30% off total economic output in the second quarter of this year and has rendered millions jobless.Low interest rates and cheap credit have meant investors are hungry for yield and are still piling into equities and riskier bonds, James said."There's a hunger for yield, so investors are coming off the sidelines — there's still a lot of money on the sidelines, actually — and looking for investments that they can get some kind of returns," James said.Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-to-buy-6-cyclicals-gains-economy-recovers-mike-wilson-2020-9?r=US&amp;IR=TIR=T">MORGAN STANLEY: Buy these 6 stocks poised for gains as the economic recovery continues and Congress mulls more coronavirus stimulus</a>Interest rates won't remain low foreverInterest rates will likely eventually rise within the next five to 10 years, James said. The Fed has said rates will stay low for the time being. It has also said it does not intend to use negative rates as a means of fostering economic activity, unlike other major central banks. Higher rates make it more expensive for a company to borrow, which will also affect its profits. James said a combination of rising interest rates and other headwinds, such as potentially higher taxes and operating costs, could impact earnings and result in disappointing equity returns in the long-term."All of that will be economic headwinds for companies. So I think you can have disappointing long term earnings growth with multiples coming in a little bit, and I can see anemic equity returns over the next five to 10 years," said James on CNBC.

Blackstone says stock investors may face a 'lost decade' in equity appreciation

<div class="KonaFilter image-container float_right"><div class="image">AP Photo/Jack PlunkettElon Musk, CEO of Tesla and No. 2 on Business Insider's list of the sexiest CEOs.</div></div>The trick to raising your company's stock price is simple: hire a hot CEO.
That's not a joke. While it's previously been shown that better-looking CEOs earn bigger paychecks, these attractive execs also are associated with higher stock returns and stronger gains on M&amp;A deals, according to a new research paper.
In "<a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2357756&amp;download=yes" target="_blank">Beauty is Wealth: CEO Appearance and Shareholder Value</a>," University of Wisconsin economists Joseph Halford and Scott Hsu discovered the link between attractiveness and company profitability after examining the looks of 677 people who served as CEOs of S&amp;P 500 companies between 2000 and 2012 and the performance of their companies' stocks at various points.
To come up with the attractiveness metrics, Halford and Hsu used a "Facial Attractiveness Index" (FAI) that crunches aspects of facial geometry (something <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/09/fashion/09skin.html?pagewanted=all" target="_blank">long linked to universal standards of beauty</a>). They then compared these scores to various measures of stock performance and compensation, and came up with four main conclusions:
1. Attractive CEOs receive a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/why-attractive-people-are-more-likely-to-be-leaders-2013-9" target="_blank">"beauty premium."</a> Halford and Hsu confirm prior research, which shows that more attractive CEOs receive higher total compensation than their less attractive peers. This pay difference is known as the "beauty premium."
2. Stocks rise when attractive CEOs start their jobs. "We find that FAI has a positive and significant impact on stock returns surrounding the first day when the CEO is on the job, indicating that shareholders seem to perceive more attractive CEOs to be more valuable," Halford and Hsu write.
3. Attractive CEOs get larger surpluses from M&amp;A deals. Halford and Hsu say this finding is linked to the notion that hotter CEOs are more persuasive negotiators. This allows them to negotiate greater surpluses during M&amp;A transactions and see greater stock returns when the deals are announced.
4. Stocks rise if the company's attractive CEO appears on TV. Having a hot CEO boosts a company's visibility and public image. Halford and Hsu find that when attractive CEOs appear on television, their companies tend to see improved stock returns. Talk about effective marketing.
"The findings suggest that CEO appearance matters for shareholder value and provide an explanation why more attractive CEOs receive 'beauty premiums' in their compensation," the economists conclude.

To Boost Stock Returns, Hire A Hot CEO

The folks up at GMO (legendary investor Jeremy Grantham's shop) have published their latest asset-class forecasts.
The news is not good for those who own U.S. <keyword id="6354298" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="stocks">stocks</keyword>.
The stock market has run so far so fast that GMO's valuation analysis, which assumes that today's super-high corporate profit margins will eventually regress to their means, predicts that inflation adjusted returns for U.S. stocks will be negative over the next 7 years. (Except for "high-quality" stocks--low debt, high cash flow).
International stocks will do better but still badly, GMO predicts.
The only opportunity for an average equity return--about 6.5% per year--will come in emerging markets, which have been demolished lately. (The lower the price goes, the better the future return is projected to be). 
Bonds aren't much better, though. Neither is cash.
The only asset class that GMO expects to deliver compelling returns other than emerging-market stocks is... timber. So if you're dying to invest in something, maybe go out and buy some trees. 
<div class="image-container" style="width:1200px"><div class="image">GMO</div></div>

Sorry, Investors, Future Stock Returns Will Be Terrible

<ul><li>Bank of America sees 2021 as a "turning point" for inflation that could weigh on stock returns. </li><li>An economic re-opening, $1.9 trillion stimulus, and vaccine rollout could push up inflation.</li><li>The firm is bullish on value stocks, cyclicals, commodities and real assets against this backdrop. </li><li><a href="https://newsletter.businessinsider.com/join/4np/10-things-opening-bell?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingestm=ingest">Sign up here for our daily newsletter, 10 Things Before the Opening Bell</a>.</li></ul>The lower inflation of the last 40 years that sent interest rates down and stock market valuations higher has reached a turning point, according to Bank of America's chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett. "We believe we are at a secular turning point for both inflation &amp; interest rates," Hartnett and a team of Bofa strategists said in a note Thursday. "We believe 2020 likely marked a secular low point for inflation and interest rates due to a reversal of deflationary secular factors, fiscal excess, and an explosive cyclical reopening of the global economy creating excess demand for goods, services and labor."Now, as the economy reopens, vaccine rollout speeds up, and Washington's $1.9 trillion stimulus bill is signed into law, the US could see a jump in inflation, according to the bank. That jump could impact long-term equity returns. Stock investors who've seen a roughly 10% annual return from recent decades should expect that gain to go down to 3%-5% over the course of this decade, said BofA. The firm recommends US stock investors focus on value stocks and cyclical stocks against this backdrop. Energy and Materials are the two sectors most levered to inflation, they added. Meanwhile, investors should "be nimble" around secular losers like oil, brick-and-mortar retail, and other areas that are likely to face continued disruption. They noted it's too early to price in if and when we'll see a "disorderly jump in inflation and yields." However, signs that typically precede inflation spikes are showing: 2021 has been the 4th worst start for the 30-year Treasury in the past 100 years, and the best start for oil since 1974. "We believe the long-term asset allocation implications of 2020s inflation are bullish real assets, commodities, volatility, small cap, value &amp; EAFE/EM stocks, and bearish bonds, US dollar, large cap growth," said BofA.

2021 is a 'turning point' for inflation and stock investors should anticipate lower long-term returns as a result, Bank of America says

The share of millionaires planning to <keyword id="35175" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="investing">investing</keyword> in <keyword id="6354298" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="stocks">stocks</keyword> this year rose to 55 percent, up 10 percent from 2010, according to a<a href="http://www.spectrem.com/reports/millionaire-2012-volume-1-changing-investment-attitudes-and-behaviors-329"> survey of 1,450 millionaires by SpectremGroup</a>.
That's a nice increase, but it doesn't mean they're bullish on the economy.
"Millionaires are taking more risks, but not necessarily because they feel things are better from an economic standpoint," Spectrem president George Walper told BI. "It's strictly the challenge of desiring a better return and that's been available because interest rates are so low. At the same time, they are also holding back money in reserve."<div class="image-container click-to-enlarge" style="width:620px"><div class="image"><a title_source="SpectremGroup" title_caption="" class="zoomin" href="http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/50f5ac87ecad046311000019-960/likely%20to%20invest%20in%202013-%20millionaires%20q4%202012%20pptx.jpg"></a></div><a href="http://www.spectrem.com/">SpectremGroup</a></div> 
See Also: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/10-common-investing-mistakes-2012-12">10 common mistakes investors make &gt;</a>

Millionaires Are Returning To The Stock Market [SURVEY]

Hello, everyone! Welcome to the new edition of <keyword id="9095853" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="insider-today">Insider Today</keyword>. Please <a href="https://www.insider.com/insider-today">sign up here</a>.Please take a moment to complete the <a href="https://insidertoday.questionpro.com/">following three-minute survey</a> so we can continue to improve this email and give you "Insider in your inbox."<h2>QUOTE OF THE DAY</h2>"I should not have been there." — Gen. Mark Milley, Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com.au/milley-says-should-not-have-participated-in-trump-photo-op-2020-6">apologized for accompanying President Trump</a> during his Lafayette Park photo-op last week, saying it "created a perception of the military involved in domestic <keyword id="6358883" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="politics">politics</keyword>."<h2>WHAT'S HAPPENING</h2><ul><li>Stocks are plunging. Investors might be waking up to the fact that the pandemic's not over and the economic recovery will take a while. (Like, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stocks-market-news-drop-after-fed-predicts-bleak-future-jobs-2020-6-1029299798">years</a>).</li><li>The Wing CEO Audrey Gelman stepped down. The cofounder of the women's social club, which provides networking and coworking spaces, announced her resignation after former employees criticized the companies culture as toxic for workers of colors and current employees <a href="https://twitter.com/AlexNoelleCov/status/1271096740301672459">staged a digital walkout</a>.</li><li>VP Pence <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pence-deletes-tweet-trump-campaign-staffers-violating-social-distancing-order-2020-6">deleted a tweet</a> showing himself speaking to campaign staff crammed together in a confined room with no distancing or masks. What is it with GOP <keyword id="1754604" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="coronavirus">coronavirus</keyword> denial? Scroll down and weigh in on our "Question of the day."</li><li>The government <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/government-stored-rifles-pistols-washington-dc-george-floyd-protests-2020-6">reportedly stashed </a>"tens of thousands of rifle and pistol rounds" to be used against protests "in case of emergency." <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/10/us/politics/national-guard-protests.html">The New York Times</a> reported that the aggressive reponse to the protests by the <keyword id="367961" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="national-guard">National Guard</keyword>, pushed by Trump's heavy hand, has prompted a review of the "debacle."</li></ul><h2>BLODGET &amp; PLOTZ</h2>The pandemic isn't over — and in some states it's now getting worse. Everyone is sick of the coronavirus and wants it to be over, but... confirmed infections are now growing again in many states, even adjusting for increased testing, and about 750 Americans are still dying of COVID every day. The early hotspots of New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts are under control, at least temporarily. But as the excellent and free<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html"> coronavirus data pages from the New York Times </a>show, confirmed cases are now increasing again in 21 US states, including some big ones: California, Texas, and Florida. A <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-us-worst-fighting-outbreak-leaked-cdc-document-yahoo-2020-6">leaked CDC document</a> suggests the US is doing the worst job fighting <keyword id="8763838" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="covid-19">COVID-19</keyword> of 10 countries with current outbreaks — including Brazil, Russia, and Iran. Optimists dismiss this concern, suggesting that, among other things, new infections represent a small percentage of the population and are often geographically isolated.The trouble with this logic is that when people aren't taking precautions, infections spread. As one epidemiologist memorably put it, you can't have a <a href="https://twitter.com/statnews/status/1255799084683845637?lang=en">"peeing section" in a swimming pool</a>. Back in January, after all, there was only one case in the country. Then there were only a few. But now, five months later, we've had more than 2 million cases and over 115,000 Americans are dead.The irony is… based on what we now know, simple mask-wearing and distancing would likely do the trick. The more we learn about the virus, the more we can target our prevention measures. And the more we can target our prevention measures, the more we can go back to living our normal lives.We now know that the coronavirus spreads most easily in crowded, confined indoor spaces in which people spend sustained time around infected people who are talking or singing.Outdoor activities are much less risky. Indoor activities with masks and distancing are less risky. Brief encounters (less than 10 minutes) with infected people are less risky. Masks help stop "respiratory droplets" that might spread the virus from getting into the air. Simple distancing, meanwhile, helps stop respiratory droplets from reaching others in high enough concentration to make them sick. As <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.2020.0376">another study</a> concluded this week, "facemask use by the public could significantly reduce the rate of COVID-19 spread, prevent further disease waves and allow less stringent lock-down regimes." In other words, if we just wore masks in crowded indoor spaces and maintained distancing whenever possible, we could probably control the coronavirus. Alas… — HB<h2>TAKE OF THE DAY</h2><div type="image" title="defund the police" height="3000" width="6000" msid="76329011" hostid="261"></div>Defund the Police? We can't afford not to! Cities and states will likely soon slash law enforcement budgets because they have to, whether or not they want to. As the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/06/how-mitch-mcconnell-defunding-police/612856/">Atlantic's Peter Beinart</a> and <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/06/gop-may-defund-the-police-with-pandemic-budget-cuts.html">New York Magazine's Ed Kilgore</a> write, pandemic-induced budget crises are ravaging local governments. Absent massive federal intervention, they'll need to slash budgets. The Floyd protests have made police departments an obvious target. The Defund the Police movement has arrived at a moment when local governments don't have money to maintain police budgets anyway. Big-city mayors across the country have already announced disproportionate cuts to police funding. Expect a lot more of that as the fiscal crisis deepens. The irony, as Beinart notes, is that it's congressional Democrats who've sought to bail out local governments and Senate Republicans who've blocked rescue funds that could protect police departments. This is why there will almost certainly be another colossal stimulus package before the election. Democrats want to protect local governments. And Republicans want to do everything they can to juice the economy going into the election. But don't be surprised when Republicans try to earmark a lot of that federal aid for police departments, and Democrats oppose it. — DP<h2>QUESTION OF THE DAY</h2><div type="image" title="Pence unmasked " height="850" width="1133" msid="76329016" hostid="261"></div>Yesterday, Vice President Pence posted a photo of himself speaking to staffers at the Trump campaign headquarters in Virginia. Shortly thereafter, <a href="https://twitter.com/DJJudd/status/1270895485642039296?s=20">observers pointed out</a> that the Pence group was 1) violating a Virginia law against such gatherings and 2) that no one in the picture was following the guidelines set forth by Pence's own coronavirus task force on wearing masks and social distancing. The picture was promptly deleted, as <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pence-deletes-tweet-trump-campaign-staffers-violating-social-distancing-order-2020-6">Insider's Eliza Relman reports</a>.But it leads to the question of the day:Why do so many Republicans resist wearing masks, even in the crowded, confined indoor spaces in which the coronavirus is known to most easily spread?Is it because of peer-pressure from mask-hating President Trump?Is it because Republicans tend to reject opinions put forth by scientists and other experts and still don't take the coronavirus seriously?Is it because Republicans "don't like the government telling us what to do," even when the government's advice makes sense?Is it because the same psychological traits that make people receptive to a GOP worldview also make them inclined to refuse to wear masks?All of the above? Something else? Please email us and let us know what you think. — HB<h2>OTHER <keyword id="6355005" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="news">NEWS</keyword></h2><div type="image" title="John Bolton" height="755" width="1510" msid="76329019" hostid="261"></div>Want to make John Bolton's book disappear? Let him publish it as is. The White House is <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/bolton-plans-to-move-forward-with-book-despite-new-white-house-warning-that-it-contains-classified-material/2020/06/10/8c52ef30-ab4b-11ea-9063-e69bd6520940_story.html">warning John Bolton</a> that the manuscript of his book The Room Where It Happened reveals state secrets and can't be published as is. The former National Security Advisor insists the manuscript is safe and vows to barrel ahead with his June 19 publication date. What a showdown, right? Or maybe not. Simon &amp; Schuster printed the book already and sent it to warehouses. Reporters certainly already have advance copies of it. Whatever "secrets" Bolton is revealing — and they're probably just scathing anecdotes about the president's ignorance and his administration's incompetence — they will be circulated in the media. Even if a judge ordered Simon &amp; Schuster to pulp the books — and the chance of that happening is essentially zilch — all the juice and dirt would still be spread widely. Probably even more widely, since the controversy would generate extra media coverage for Bolton. Bolton, in other words, is longing to be suppressed, longing for Trump to attack him. If Trump really wants to quash Bolton's book, he should call off his lawyers and just ignore it. How many people actually want to read a 592-page account of Trump's erratic foreign policy? — DPWhat David Duke's rise can teach us about Trump's AmericaIf you want to understand how white nationalism and the Republican party ended up intertwined, listen to this <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/david-dukes-political-rise-started-in-forsyth-county.html">extraordinary new podcast series</a> from Slate telling the story of the rise of David Duke, the KKK Grand Wizard and Nazi-sympathizer who nearly was elected US Senator and Louisiana governor in the early 1990s. —DP<h2>BUSINESS &amp; ECONOMY</h2><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/">The stock market is, finally, plunging.</a> By mid-day, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 5%, over 1,300 points, and the S&amp;P 500 and NASDAQ were getting hammered, too. Why? One theory is that investors are finally waking up to the fact that the pandemic isn't over (see above). Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also may have helped crack the spell when he pointed out that the economy is still troubled and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stocks-market-news-drop-after-fed-predicts-bleak-future-jobs-2020-6-1029299798">lost jobs may take many years to return</a>. Then there's the fact that many (most?) experts have long viewed the market's recent ballistic rise as nuts, which it may well turn out to have been. <a href="https://markets.jpmorgan.com/research/open/latest/publication/9002054">Speaking of the economy, here are some cool charts from J.P. Morgan on the consumer spending recovery…</a> Overall, consumer spending—as measured here by the year-over-year change in credit and debit card payments—has recovered from down about 40% at the end of March to now down about 18%. But the rate of recovery seems to be flattening.<div type="image" title="Screen Shot 2020 06 11 at 7.34.39 AM" height="840" width="1196" msid="76329020" hostid="261"></div>Here's spending by type of store. Supermarkets and discount stores are still doing well. Healthcare and pharmacies are approaching normal levels. Restaurants are still getting hammered.<div type="image" title="Screen Shot 2020 06 11 at 7.32.55 AM" height="822" width="1280" msid="76329022" hostid="261"></div>Travel is still getting demolished:<div type="image" title="JP Morgan Chase spending travel" height="820" width="1212" msid="76329026" hostid="261"></div>Spending patterns are similar in most states, regardless of lockdown policies and political leanings:<div type="image" title="Screen Shot 2020 06 11 at 7.33.24 AM" height="826" width="1202" msid="76329029" hostid="261"></div>And… for those who still believe the economic impact of the coronavirus was the result of "government lockdowns" instead of people's fear of getting sick, note the (minimal) difference between states that are still locked down, states that reopened early, and states that never locked down at all:<div type="image" title="JP morgan spending by stay at home status" height="726" width="1194" msid="76329032" hostid="261"></div>— HB<h2>LIFE</h2>The Red Sox finally acknowledge Fenway Park's racism. For too long, major sports have accepted the hideous behavior of some fans, brushing fan racism off as merely excessive enthusiasm. So it's encouraging that the George Floyd movement may finally quash overt racism at spectator sports. It's an open secret, for example, that Black baseball fans and players feel unwelcome at Boston's Fenway Park: Last night, responding to <a href="https://twitter.com/RedSox/status/1270829983922098178?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1270829983922098178&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fsports%2F2020%2F06%2F11%2Fred-sox-acknowledge-racism-fenway-park-is-real-promise-action%2Fn%2F">complaints by the former player Torii Hunter</a>, the <a href="https://twitter.com/RedSox/status/1270829983922098178?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1270829983922098178&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fsports%2F2020%2F06%2F11%2Fred-sox-acknowledge-racism-fenway-park-is-real-promise-action%2Fn%2F">Red Sox acknowledged</a> that Fenway racism "is real" and promised to fight it. Black fans also avoid NASCAR, which currently has only one Black driver, in part because spectators openly display Confederate flags. <a href="https://www.insider.com/nascar-bans-confederate-flag-from-races-latest-racial-equality-effort-2020-6#:~:text=NASCAR%20bans%20the%20Confederate%20flag,racial%20equality%20and%20social%20justice&amp;text=A%20ghost.&amp;text=In%20an%20unprecedented%20move%2C%20NASCAR,from%20all%20of%20its%20races.20races.">NASCAR banned Confederate flags yesterday.</a> NFL and NBA players will be kneeling for Black Lives Matter when their games resume, and they'll finally be supported by their leagues and owners. This is a good start! But there's a ton more to do: Racist fans mar European soccer matches by insulting Black players and hurling bananas at them. Soccer needs a zero tolerance policy that ends and forfeits games when fans misbehave. In this country, sports with overwhelmingly white fan bases such as hockey and golf need to make more sincere efforts to welcome Black fans and nurture Black competitors. — DP<h2>THE BIG 3*</h2><div type="image" title="Shannon Soine small house" height="900" width="1200" msid="76329037" hostid="261"></div><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-will-host-first-post-covid-rally-tulsa-juneteenth-2020-6">Trump will host his first post-Covid rally in Tulsa on June 19. </a>That's Juneteenth, and at the site of the worst race massacre in American history. It is also likely to feature no social distancing, and no required masking. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/best-places-to-live-in-america-ranked-2020-6">The 30 best cities to live in after the pandemic.</a> Insider used 9 different metrics--including the percentage of jobs that could be done from home--to make the list. Lots of alluring cities in the Midwest and Great Plains. <a href="https://www.insider.com/couple-lives-in-tiny-home-with-infant-and-two-dogs-2020-6">How this couple lives in a 210-sq-ft house on wheels.</a> With their baby. And two dogs. *The most popular stories on Insider today.

Stocks tank as pandemic fears return

The S&amp;P 500 is heading for returns of between 25% and 30% for 2013. 
Exceptional? Not totally. 
LPL Financial 's Jeff Kleintop has compiled the historic frequency of stock returns on the S&amp;P 500 since 1927. It turns out that 25%-30% gains range is not terribly rare: there have been five other years that saw such gains. In fact, the gains range with the highest frequency on the S&amp;P 500 is 15%-20%, with eleven years. 
Okay, now what?
Kleintop also circled the five years that followed the 25%-30% gains years - and the average returns for those periods comes to 12%, with four of the five years posting double-digit gains.
He writes:
"Some may fear an outsized gain in the stock market during 2013, is surely to be punished with losses in the coming year. However, historically after a one-year total return in the 25-30% range, the S&amp;P 500 has followed it up by more solid years of gains. ...In fact, most of the years were actually followed by several years of strong gains, as was the case in 1943, 2003, and 2009."
All of this may sound counterintuititive, especially when financial advisors are out there telling clients to expect average annual returns of around 10%.
But keep in mind, those are just average.
Kleintop tweeted about this today:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
Flaw of Averages: At 28% in 2013, S&amp;P 500 annual returns have been in the long-term average range of 5-10% in only 8 of the past 86 years.
- Jeffrey Kleintop (@JeffreyKleintop) <a href="https://twitter.com/JeffreyKleintop/statuses/415206709657739265">December 23, 2013</a></blockquote>


- Jeffrey Kleintop (@JeffreyKleintop) <a href="https://twitter.com/JeffreyKleintop/statuses/415206709657739265">December 23, 2013</a>
In other words, strong gains in stocks are usually followed by...strong gains in stocks.
Chart: 
<div class="KonaFilter image-container click-to-enlarge"><div class="image"><a title_source="LPL Financial" title_caption="" class="zoomin" href="http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/52b8ac6c6bb3f7d8273faf9c-960/screen-shot-2013-12-23-at-4.29.57-pm.jpg"></a>LPL Financial</div></div>

The Stock Market Rarely Returns 10% In A Year

From MKM Partners' Jonathan Krinsky: "There are likely different explanations for this, and while the results span 130 years, the actual number of samples is quite small. With that said, the results are quite remarkable. Since 1885, there have been 13 years ending in "five." The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been up 12 of 13 times, for an average return of over 28%. Only 2005 closed down, and it was a modest -0.61%. The SPX was up 3% in 2005. As you can see below, the average returns for the DJIA in years ending in five are 4x the average year. Of course we would never recommend an investment strategy based solely on this phenomenon, but it certainly doesn't hurt the bull case."

Stock Market Returns In Years Ending In 5

Yale professor <keyword id="178663" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Robert-Shiller">Robert Shiller</keyword> was one of a relative handful of stock-market observers who warned that the bull market of the late 1990s was a colossal bubble in the making.
Shiller's book, Irrational Exuberance, was published moments before the 2000 top, and it foretold much of the carnage that was to come.
Shiller followed up Irrational Exuberance with a book arguing that the housing market was in a similar bubble.
He thus became one of the only observers to plant a flag and call both bubbles before they popped.
We sat down with Professor Shiller in Davos to discuss the state of both houses and stocks. Shiller's thoughts on houses are <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/shiller-housie-prices-2013-1">here</a> (<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/shiller-housie-prices-2013-1">he thinks the current optimism is premature if not flat-out wrong</a>). His thoughts on stocks are below.
* * *
Henry Blodget: So, on to stocks. When we had the crash, we finally did get below average on your 10-year smoothed earnings price-earnings ratio, the cyclically adjusted P/E.
Professor Shiller: Yes, in 2009.
Blodget: We never got as low as we’ve gotten in prior bear markets, and that led a lot of people like me to be stupidly waiting on the sidelines until we got to single-digit P/Es, where it would be ‘safe’ to buy, and as a result I missed a lot of the rally. As you look at, now we’re above a 20s PE again, and we have been for several years. Do you think it’s possible that something has changed and that the average will now be higher over the next 100 years than it was over the past 100 years, or do you expect that we will go back to the ~15x earnings average?
Shiller: Certainly it’s possible, but when you say that it reminds me of Irving Fisher’s 1930 book called something like The Great Crash And After, and in that book, which I think he wrote before the 1929 crash, because no one can write a book in such short order as that – there’s a chapter on a new level for the P/E ratio.
Blodget: Aha! 'This time it's different.'
Shiller: And he had a prediction for the next century, that it would be very high. And he’s a very persuasive writer. One thing he talked about was Charles Amos Dice, who wrote a famous book in the mid-20s about common stocks as investments, pointing out that stocks have always outperformed other investments, and that now a new breed of sophisticated investors understand that, and we’ll never revert to such low pricing for stocks again. Dow 36,000 made the same statement.
<div class="image-container float_right click-to-enlarge" style="width:398px"><div class="image"><a title_source="Robert Shiller" title_caption="130 years of the Shiller PE (blue line)" class="zoomin" href="http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/510295f8ecad04326c000017-960/shiller pe 012513.jpg"></a></div><a href="http://www.irrationalexuberance.com/index.htm">Robert Shiller</a>130 years of the Shiller PE (blue line)</div>Blodget: Exactly. Many people made similar statements to that. So I think a lot of – one frustration a lot of people have with the cyclically adjusted P/E and others is that it’s not particularly helpful for the timing mechanism, do you think it’s good to use as a sort of projected 10-year return, where when P/Es are high the return tends to be low, and vice versa?
Shiller: John Campbell, who’s now a professor at Harvard, and I presented our findings first to the Federal Reserve Board in 1996, and we had a regression, showing how the P/E ratio predicts returns. And we had scatter diagrams, showing 10-year subsequent returns against the CAPE, what we call the cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio. And that had a pretty good fit. So I think the bottom line that we were giving – and maybe we didn’t stress or emphasize it enough – was that it’s continual. It’s not a timing mechanism, it doesn’t tell you – and I had the same mistake in my mind, to some extent. Wait until it goes all the way down to a P/E of 7, or something.
Blodget: Right, perfectly safe, so then you can buy.
Shiller: But actually, the lesson there is that if you combine that with a good market diversification algorithm, the important thing is that you never get completely in or completely out of stocks. The lower CAPE is, as it gradually gets lower, you gradually move more and more in. So taking that lesson now, CAPE is high, but it’s not super high. I think it looks like stocks should be a substantial part of a portfolio.
Blodget: But probably less than the 100-year average return?
Shiller: I think predicting something like 4 percent real for the stock market, as opposed to 7 or 8 percent historically. And that looks pretty good. The other thing is, you don’t have to go into the whole market. You can go into a low-CAPE sector.
Blodget: Interesting.
Shiller: And this is just what I’ve been working with Barclays’ bank on, on products that would do this. It’s not selling well yet. Ticker symbol CAPE, which you can buy. It goes into low-CAPE sectors.
Blodget: So is this a similar screen to the famous value screen that Fama and French developed?
Shiller: No, it’s a new one. Well, it’s not new, I’ve done this for 20 years. But somehow, it hasn’t been implemented as an investment strategy. The interesting thing is, we took the Fama/French value factor and ran a regression of returns on both ours and his. And they both come in significant. So it seems like we have another measure of value that’s different from theirs, and they both work perfectly. So I’m an advocate of going into traditional value, like Fama/French value, and our CAPE.
Blodget: Are they significantly different?
Shiller: They must be, because when you put them in a regression together – I’m talking econometrics here – they both come in.
Blodget: Meaning?
Shiller: They’re both significant.
Blodget: Independent of one another?
Shiller: If they were collinear, if they were one doing the same as the other, then they would both drop out.
Blodget: I think I understand. Last question on that: can you apply the same methodology to different markets and asset classes? If you were going to build a global portfolio of diversified assets, you’d say the Australian market has a low CAPE, you’ll go overweight there – is anyone doing that?
Shiller: Yeah, we’re doing that. But we haven’t with Barclays’. We haven’t come out with a product yet, because its tricky doing things internationally. The one really big problem we had is that there’s an exchange rate problem. If you look at the relative performance of investments in other countries, exchange rate is really important. Another question is do think exchange rate means revert? So that’s what we’re working on, and I’m optimistic that we’ll have a product. But right now, we don’t. We don’t yet have it worked out.
Blodget: This is going to be an affordable product with low fees, or is it going to be a typical Wall Street product with huge fees?
Shiller: Well, our CAPE product has a 45 basis point fee.
Blodget: That’s good – better than typical fees. Thank you very much, Professor.
Shiller: My pleasure.
SEE ALSO: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/shiller-housie-prices-2013-1">SHILLER ON HOUSES: All This Optimism Is Premature!</a>

SHILLER: Stocks Are Priced For (Relatively) Crappy Returns

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The S&amp;P 500 posted better returns in Biden's first 100 days than under any president since World War II.</li><li>JPMorgan analysts said the rise was due to record fiscal and monetary stimulus.</li><li>The analysts said they thought tax increases wouldn't hurt market returns as much as anticipated.</li></ul>The US stock market has seen better returns in <keyword id="99719" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Joe-Biden">Joe Biden</keyword>'s first 100 days as president than it has under any other president in the past 75 years, according to data from JPMorgan.In a note to clients on Friday, JPMorgan analysts led by John Normand reviewed the <keyword id="10092361" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="biden-administration">Biden administration</keyword>'s performance since Inauguration Day and discussed how tax policies and spending programs could move <keyword id="31671" type="CITY" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets">markets</keyword> in the coming months.The analysts said record fiscal stimulus had pushed equity returns to all-time highs in Biden's first 100 days."Not bad for someone Trump labeled as Sleepy Joe during the campaign," the analysts wrote.S&amp;P 500 returns since Biden was elected are nearly 25%, compared with returns of just below 15% from former President Donald Trump's election to the 100-day mark after his inauguration.Data from JPMorgan indicated that Democratic presidents' average S&amp;P 500 return was more than double the average return of Republican presidents since the end of World War II.The previous high-water mark for 100-day success was President John F. Kennedy, who oversaw equity returns of more than 20% in his first 100 days in office.<div type="image" title="returns S&amp;P500 JP Morgan" height="622" width="766" msid="82262431" hostid="261"></div>JPMorgan said that while Biden's policies since his inauguration had benefited the market, proposed policies were "no longer so unambiguously positive."Biden is said to be planning to nearly double the capital gains tax rate to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-reportedly-plans-nearly-double-capital-gains-tax-for-wealthy-2021-4">as high as 43.4%</a> for wealthy Americans.The JPMorgan team said tax hikes on corporations and individuals to fund infrastructure and social spending, coupled with a tightening regulatory environment, could be a drag on equities in 2021.That said, the team added that it didn't think tax increases would drive a big dip in earnings."The view since the 2020 campaign has been that a higher corporate rate would lower S&amp;P 500 EPS by several dollars," the analysts wrote. "But within a surging earnings growth environment driven by greater fiscal outlays and vaccine-driven reopening, our US Equity Strategists have refreshed and expanded that original analysis this week, with no change to the year-end S&amp;P target of 4400."Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-to-buy-retail-clothing-profit-beyond-the-reopening-ubs-2021-4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">UBS picks 13 stocks poised to profit for years to come from the return to retail as the economy recovers and consumers start spending again</a>Increases in the capital gains tax rate in 1986 (to 28% from 20%) and 2013 (to 25% from 15%) motivated modest (about 5%) intramonth drawdowns in equities before new codes came into effect, JPMorgan said.But JPMorgan analysts said that it's a small sample size and that the 1986 Tax Reform Act included lower corporate and individual rates.Overall, the analysts said they expected Biden's tax policies to drive a continued rotation into value <keyword id="6354298" type="DEFINITION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Stocks">stocks</keyword> and away from big tech and growth names, instead of a market downturn.JPMorgan's view is backed up by UBS Global Wealth Management, which told clients in a note last week that it had found "no correlation between capital gains tax rates and equity market valuations."

The US stock market has seen better returns in Joe Biden's first 100 days than under any president in the past 75 years

<ul><li>Over the next decade, expect <keyword id="6354298" type="DEFINITION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Stocks">stocks</keyword> to outperform <keyword id="35147" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="bonds">bonds</keyword> and deliver average annualized returns of 6%, <keyword id="6361649" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Goldman-Sachs">Goldman Sachs</keyword> said in a long-term forecast published on Monday.</li><li>Goldman said its analysis implied a 90% probability that stocks will outperform bonds over the next 10 years, thanks in part to historically low interest rates.</li><li>Goldman acknowledged that forecasting potential equity returns a decade in the future was hard and noted that its previous long-term forecast, in 2012, missed the mark: 8% estimated annual returns versus the S&amp;P 500's average annual return of 13.6%.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/?hprecirc-bullet?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingestgest" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories</a>.</li></ul>Investors should continue to favor stocks over bonds from now until at least 2030, according to Goldman Sachs.In a note published Monday, Goldman gave its long-term forecast for stocks over the next decade. The firm estimated that the S&amp;P 500 index would deliver an average annualized return of 6% and that stocks had a 90% probability of outperforming bonds in part because of record low interest rates.Goldman acknowledged that it was difficult to forecast stock returns 10 years in the future, pointing to its previous long-term forecast, from July 2012. In that forecast, Goldman suggested that stocks would deliver an average annualized return of 8%. But eight years later, the S&amp;P 500 delivered an average annual return of 13.6%.Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-picking-strategy-how-to-find-big-winners-paul-andreola-2020-7" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Paul Andreola has a long track record of finding tiny stocks that deliver 10-times returns. He lays out the 4 criteria he looks for when seeking the next explosive pick.</a><div type="image" title="Goldman chart.JPG" height="581" width="821" msid="76985164" hostid="261"></div>The firm forecast that 25% of its 2030 stock return forecast would be generated by dividends, while the other 75% would come from price gains. Goldman added that a more bullish scenario could result in average annualized gains of 11%, while a more bearish scenario could see stocks return just 2%.Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-picks-to-buy-pandemic-winners-top-equity-themes-bofa-2020-7" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BANK OF AMERICA: Buy these 14 stocks that are likely winners in the pandemic — and will benefit from the biggest trends that will define the future</a>Goldman averaged five approaches to estimate the 6% return for stocks into the next decade:1. Starting absolute valuation: 2.7%<ul><li>"The cyclically-adjusted P/E multiple currently equals 26.5x, implying the S&amp;P 500 will post an average annualized return of 2.7% during the next 10 years."</li></ul>2. Starting relative valuation: 8.7%<ul><li>"While equity valuation is high on an absolute basis, it is more reasonable in the context of the low interest rate environment ... Given the 10-year US Treasury yield currently equals 0.7%, the starting relative valuation implies the S&amp;P 500 will post an 8.7% annualized equity return through 2030."</li></ul>3. Equity allocations: 6.5%<ul><li>"The major ownership categories of US stocks collectively account for 83% of the market. We estimate these entities in aggregate had a 44% portfolio allocation to US <keyword id="45369" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="equities">equities</keyword> ... Since 1952, when equity allocations have been between 40% and 45%, the subsequent 10-year annualized return for the S&amp;P 500 has averaged 6.5%."</li></ul>4. Dividend yield and growth: 4.7%<ul><li>"Our analysis implies annualized S&amp;P 500 total return during the coming decade will equal 4.7% if the dividend yield in 2030 remains roughly unchanged from the current level of approximately 2.0%."</li></ul>5. Economic modeling: 7.2%<ul><li>"S&amp;P 500 returns during the next decade will depend on the pace of GDP growth and how much time the US economy spends in contraction ... Our Monte Carlo simulation of potential equity returns during the next decade incorporates various economic growth scenarios. "</li></ul>Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-picks-to-buy-pharma-covid-19-coronavirus-vaccine-treatments-2020-7" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BANK OF AMERICA: Buy these 7 pharma stocks now as they race to develop COVID-19 treatments and vaccines</a>Despite the bullish long-term outlook, Goldman named five key risks that could derail its forecast: the rise of deglobalization, higher taxes, higher labor costs, an aging US population, and turnover in the S&amp;P 500 index.Goldman noted that since its 2012 long-term forecast, 170 companies had been added to the S&amp;P 500, now making up 17% of the index. It's hard to make a long-term forecast for stock returns when some of the companies that are likely to drive returns 10 years from now haven't even been founded.

Stocks will outperform bonds and deliver annualized returns of 6% over the next decade, Goldman says

NEW DELHI: The <keyword id="30287" type="CITY" weightage="40" keywordseo="SP">S&amp;P</keyword> <keyword id="53232" type="COMPANY" weightage="40" keywordseo="BSE-sensex">BSE Sensex</keyword> managed to bounce back on Monday even though the macro triggers remain muted with IIP data reflecting the underlying weakening production trend in the manufacturing sector. Today, the index is witnessing dull trade. 
 Last week, index of industrial production (IIP) contracted for the second straight month. The index fell by 2.1 per cent for November on a year-on-year basis, which was even sharper than October’s decline of 1.6 per cent. Now all eyes are on <keyword id="279236" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="40" keywordseo="Inflation-data">inflation data</keyword> due on Wednesday for the month of December. 
 The BSE <keyword id="6484188" type="CITY" weightage="40" keywordseo="Sensex">Sensex</keyword> rallied over 400 points in intraday trade on Monday, led by smart buying seen in IT, banks, capital goods and oil &amp; gas <keyword id="6354298" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="40" keywordseo="stocks">stocks</keyword>. The index finally closed 375.72 points, or 1.8 per cent higher, at 21,134.21. 
 The large part of the optimism can be attributed to <keyword id="6354512" type="CITY" weightage="40" keywordseo="Infosys">Infosys</keyword>' stellar results on Friday for the quarter ended December 31. However, most analysts rule out any major surprises from Q3 results considering the fact that the benefit of the currency which was there in the previous quarter might not be available in December quarter. 
 “Markets would be closely watching the <keyword id="22195" type="COMPANY" weightage="40" keywordseo="Inflation">inflation</keyword> data and that would definitely give some cues as to what the RBI would do in the upcoming policy meet,” said Ankit Agarwal, <keyword id="1134824" type="POSITION" weightage="40" keywordseo="VP-Fund-Manager">VP &amp; Fund Manager</keyword>, Centrum Broking. 
 
“We feel that the markets in the near-term will continue to remain a little volatile as we do not expect any great wonders from the quarterly results. In the Q2, they had got a benefit of higher depreciated currency, but on a QoQ basis, even that benefit has sort of normalised,” he added. 
 Agarwal is of <keyword id="358683" type="ENTERTAINMENT" weightage="40" keywordseo="The-View">the view</keyword> that any dips in the market, any significant dips in the market, we would buy into some of the cyclicals with a 10 to 15-month investment horizon as there could be some disappointment in the results. 
 
We have collated list of ten stocks from various brokerage firm which can deliver return upto 50 per cent in 2014: 
 
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Indiabulls Real Estate: Motilal Oswal maintains ‘BUY’ rating on the stock as the firm’s cash flow is likely to remain steady due to execution progress, which will lead to a decline in net debt. The stock is trading at around 40 per cent discount to its NAV estimate of 125. 
 
Prestige Estates Projects Ltd: Religare maintains ‘BUY’ rating on the stock as the company has posted steady sales in the third quarter aided by a big launch in Bangalore. Its full-year guidance is good and a pick-up in deliveries is the key performance indicator. 
 VST Tillers Tractors: Nirmal Bank maintain ‘BUY’ rating on the stock since the company is asset-rich, with a clean balance sheet, and enjoys dominance in its product range. Earnings growth is expected to be high at a <keyword id="107168" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="40" keywordseo="CAGR">CAGR</keyword> of 36.9 per cent over 2013-15. 
 Adani Ports and SEZ: <keyword id="48085" type="CITY" weightage="40" keywordseo="Credit-Suisse">Credit Suisse</keyword> initiates coverage with ‘outperform’ rating as the release of corporate guarantees for Abbot and continuation of strong volume growth at Mundra are the key catalysts. 
<div style="page-break-after: always;">
	&#xa0;</div>
Ipca Laboratories Ltd: Edelweiss maintains ‘BUY’ rating on the stock as the domestic business is gaining traction and will continue to grow at a sustainable 16-17 per cent over the next two years. We forecast 24 per cent EPS CAGR over 2013-16. 
 Sobha Developers Ltd: <keyword id="6361649" type="CITY" weightage="40" keywordseo="Goldman-Sachs">Goldman Sachs</keyword> retains ‘BUY’ rating on the stock as the company will continue to witness a robust revenue growth and operating cash flow since the rolling 8-quarter pre-sales momentum remains strong. 
 <keyword id="201473" type="COMPANY" weightage="40" keywordseo="HDFC-Bank-Ltd">HDFC Bank Ltd</keyword>: IIFL upgrades the stock to ‘BUY’ as the mobilisation of <keyword id="91029" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="40" keywordseo="FCNR">FCNR</keyword> (B) deposits will enhance competitiveness and lead to significant improvement in earnings and profitability over the medium term. 
 Sintex Industries Ltd: <keyword id="2013974" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="40" keywordseo="Sunidhi-Securities-Ltd">Sunidhi Securities Ltd</keyword> recommend ‘BUY’ as Sintex enjoys an early-mover advantage in businesses that are geared towards social sector spending in India, which is likely to continue. The company is poised to accelerate business growth. 
 <keyword id="192306" type="CITY" weightage="40" keywordseo="Britannia-Industries-Ltd">Britannia Industries Ltd</keyword>: <keyword id="6358584" type="CITY" weightage="40" keywordseo="HSBC">HSBC</keyword> has initiated coverage of <keyword id="6359432" type="PERSON" weightage="40" keywordseo="Britannia">Britannia</keyword> Industries Ltd with an 'overweight' rating and a price target of Rs 1,100, citing the company's strength in the fast-growing mid-to-premium segment in biscuits/bakery. 
 <keyword id="233533" type="COMPANY" weightage="40" keywordseo="Cadila-Healthcare-Ltd">Cadila Healthcare Ltd</keyword>: <keyword id="189016" type="CITY" weightage="40" keywordseo="Bank-of-America-Merrill-Lynch">Bank of America-Merrill Lynch</keyword> upgraded the stock to "buy" from "underperform" and raised its target to Rs 1,000 from Rs 705, saying the worst is behind and earnings will accelerate from fiscal 2015. 
 The investment bank also expects that Cadila is likely to get 20 or more drug approvals from the <keyword id="6356255" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="40" keywordseo="US-Food-and-Drug-Administration">US Food and Drug Administration</keyword>, and that it expects domestic sales to recover in fiscal 2015. 
 
(The above report is compiled from inputs from ET Wealth publication dated 13 January 2014.)

You Searched For "stock return" and got 13 results

Billionaire investor Leon Cooperman says long-term stock returns could be meager, and blames the Fed for 'creating an environment of free money'

Emily Graffeo

Blackstone says stock investors may face a 'lost decade' in equity appreciation

Kari McMahon

To Boost Stock Returns, Hire A Hot CEO

Alison Griswold

Sorry, Investors, Future Stock Returns Will Be Terrible

Henry Blodget

2021 is a 'turning point' for inflation and stock investors should anticipate lower long-term returns as a result, Bank of America says

Emily Graffeo

Millionaires Are Returning To The Stock Market [SURVEY]

Mandi Woodruff

Stocks tank as pandemic fears return

David Plotz,Henry Blodget

The Stock Market Rarely Returns 10% In A Year

Rob Wile

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