Trade war fears are escalating - here's who has the most to lose

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Trade war fears are escalating - here's who has the most to lose

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Last Thursday President Trump announced that the US would impose new tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum. This caused US stocks to sell off broadly, while shares of the largest US steel makers got a small boost. The initial market reaction was small compared to the potential larger consequences of these policies. According to a recent note from Fidelity Investments, "the broader issue is the potential of escalating anti-trade policies globally, which could slow, or even reverse global economic growth and spur inflation."

According to Fidelity, these will be the biggest losers if protectionism rises:

Countries most dependent on global trade
Economies most dependent on exports for growth will be hit hard by import tariffs. Small economies very open to trade like South Korea and the Netherlands have the most at stake. Also, emerging economies that have most benefitted from demand from developed countries such as Mexico and China.

Fidelity trade gdp

Fidelity Investments

Trade openness by country

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Industries dependent on foreign revenue
Industries that sell more abroad have more to lose from protectionist policies. For example, in the US over half of tech sector revenue comes from outside the US. However, US utility and financial sectors get almost all their revenue domestically and will likely be less impacted.

Fidelity foreign revenue

Fidelity Investments

US company foreign revenue exposure

Multinational companies with global supply chains
Truly global companies that sell goods to other countries and are dependent on access to foreign markets.

Consumers and businesses that benefit from lower priced imports
The final loser is everyone that currently benefits from lower prices due to open trade policies. Consumers and businesses that buy less expensive imported goods will see prices rise.

READ MORE: What tariffs may mean for the economy

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