What Are Traders Chatting About Right Now? Energy Junk Bonds And Retailers...
Good Morning! Brief little note this AM, we are having a lazy Friday after Thanksgiving. Overseas markets are a bit weaker (DAX off 40bp) - but they seem to be just giving back some of yesterday's gains. Globally, Banks had a VERY strong day, gaining 2%+ in India, Japan and China, while they are mixed in US/UK.
Stock Market Almanac notes last Trading Day of November, S&P Up 6 of Last 7
Brent Crude was trading yesterday, and lost ~6% on the News OPEC opted not to cut production - WTI re-opens for trading today in the USA, and it's marked off 6.5% this AM to new 4Y+ lows below $80. XOP, OIH and XLE will all have a very tough go this AM. Airlines should jump higher (Mostly up 4%+), while we could see flow of funds coming from the Rails.
Watch the HY market - Energy makes up 15% of the sector, and with OPEC targeting putting the "weaker" US Energy plays out of business. That said, the US 10YY is testing the "Gundlach Floor" of 2.2%, but Germany's yields have taken out that Oct 15 "Flash Crash" low, so demand continues for Global Sov Debt. REITS, Utes and Staples will like this tailwind
Gold is losing ground fast - finally getting exhausted attempting to break upside $1200/oz, and is off 50bp. Silver, where the street has finally gone Net Short - is off 3%. NUGT, GDX and GDXJ may have a tough day
Retailers will be in focus as headlines come in from "Black Friday" sales (and Oil collapsing)
Target.Com Says It Had Biggest Online Sales Day Ever Yday
Amazon Thanksgiving Comp. Sales Up 28.2%: Channel Advisor
Thanksgiving Online Sales Up 12.2% at 6pm: IBM Benchmark
IBM Says Online Sales From Nov. 24 to Nov. 25 up 8.8% Y/y
Wal-Mart Says >22m Customers Visited Its Stores on Thanksgiving
Macy's CEO Says Outerwear Best-Selling Apparel Category
Finally, WTO adopted a Historic Trade Deal After Months-Long Standoff - $1T dollars and 21mln jobs should be added to the world economy.
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