- The stellar July
jobs report suggests a full recovery could come sooner than last expected. - If US job gains maintain their three-month average, all lost payrolls would be recouped by February 2022.
- That's four months earlier than the last forecast, but rising COVID cases could still slow the rebound.
The July jobs report didn't just paint last month in a good light. It also hints at a faster recovery to come.
Payroll growth accelerated again in July, with the US adding 943,000 jobs last month. That beat the median forecast for an 870,000-payroll gain and marked the strongest month of job creation since last August. June job additions were revised higher to nearly the same number, meaning more than 900,000 new jobs were created for two months running.
The
Should the trendline hold, the recovery would be among the fastest in the country's history. It would be roughly five times faster than that seen after the
To be sure, the three-month average was also boosted because April's dismal pace of growth fell out of the calculation. The US added just 269,000 payrolls that month, compared to an increase of 614,000 jobs in May.
Also, some signs point to slowing
Staging a full recovery would also only place the economy back to where it was in February 2020. The US is still 7.5 million jobs short of its forecasted total before the pandemic,
Still, after two months of stellar job creation and a healthy decline in unemployment, the labor market's rebound looks stronger - and faster - than ever.