India's e-commerce market set to skyrocket as the country's digital economy surges to USD 1 Trillion by 2030

The e-commerce market in India is projected to increase significantly to over USD 300 billion by 2030 as the country's digital economy is set to reach a whopping USD 1 billion by the same year.

According to Invest India, India's online shopper base will be the 2nd largest globally by 2030, with nearly 500-600 Mn shoppers. Even now, India has the 2nd largest Internet user-base globally with 881 million users. India is moving towards becoming a dominant force in global e-commerce by 2030, driven by a growing digital economy and an expanding internet user base.

The data from the investment promotion and facilitation agency Invest India from shows India taking the lead in online shopping, the e-commerce sector in India is valued at USD 70 billion at present. This makes up for just around 7 percent of the total retail market in the country. However, several factors are likely to contribute a bright future outlook for the sector.

Growing internet penetration and digital economy

Internet penetration across has seen substantial growth, with over 60% of the Indian population (918 million) using the internet by September 2023. Further, an estimated 87 percent of Indian households are projected to have internet access as early as 2025. The time spent accessing the internet via mobile devices has also increased by 21 percent compared to 2019.

The affordability of data prices in India is a key factor, with one gigabyte of data priced at around USD 0.17 (Rs 13.5), encouraging a large portion of the population to go online. Mobile data traffic has tripled from 2018 to 2023, demonstrating the growing dependence on digital platforms for diverse requirements.

It is projected that by 2026, 1.18 billion people across the country will have access to smartphones, over 80% of India's population. The increasing number of smartphone users along with higher average data consumption per user, boosts the digital economy. The Unified Payments Interface (UPI) has become a major player in digital payments, handling transactions worth USD 1.5 trillion in 2022.

There has been a significant increase in the availability of local language and mobile-first content, with about 73 percent of India's internet users utilizing Indian languages. As a result, there is an estimated regional language user base of 540 million, creating a market worth USD 53 billion.

Digital infrastructure like UPI, eKYC, and Aadhaar has cut down the consumer onboarding time by 80 percent, enhancing the digital experience. The Open Network for Digital Commerce (ONDC) is another notable initiative by the Government of India, launched in 2022. It aims to provide equal opportunities to MSMEs to thrive in digital commerce and democratize e-commerce.

A transition along with growth

In FY 2022-23, Government e-marketplace (GeM) registered its highest ever Gross Merchandise Value of $2011 Bn, shows data from Invest India. The projected growth in online shoppers in India is substantial, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22 percent to 88 million in rural India and 15 percent to 263 million in urban India from 2019 to 2026.

There is a notable transition towards rural-focused value e-commerce, with more than 60 percent of demand anticipated to come from tier 2-4 towns and rural India by 2026. Government programs such as the National Logistics Policy are designed to streamline deliveries to remote areas, improving the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of logistics.

The quick commerce market in India's hyperlocal mobility sector is also projected to grow exponentially to achieve a market size of USD 5.5 billion by 2025. Leading companies like Swiggy and Zomato are at the forefront of the market, while startups like Zepto are also gaining substantial market share.

Social commerce, a new trend that uses social networks and digital media to connect buyers and sellers, is also projected to achieve a market size of USD 70 billion by 2030, with small video applications gaining significant popularity.

Significant mergers and acquisitions have been observed in the e-commerce sector, with companies such as Zomato and PhonePe making strategic decisions to enhance their positions. Government schemes like Jan Dhan Yojana, BharatNet Project, and the implementation of Goods & Service Tax (GST) have been instrumental in shaping India's digital economy.

(With inputs from ANI)