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Even as COVID cases surge, experts say that a fourth wave is unlikely

Even as COVID cases surge, experts say that a fourth wave is unlikely
  • No data to support that there is a fourth wave in India, says NTAGI chief Dr. NK Arora.
  • Experts suggest that the cases are likely to rise even further as we get back to normalcy.
  • One possible reason behind an unlikely fourth wave could be strong immunity due to the COVID-19 vaccine.
The rising COVID-19 cases are bringing back the fear of a possible new wave or a fourth wave in the country. However, experts are of the opinion that the surge in cases won’t trigger another wave in the country.

According to Health Ministry data, India reported over 7,584 fresh cases, 3,791 recoveries, and 24 deaths as of June 10. The daily cases are witnessing a steep rise over the past three weeks, particularly in Maharashtra and Kerala.

“Every wave is driven by a new variant, we don’t see any outrage from any of these particular (Omicron) variants,” Dr. NK Arora, chief of Non-Technical Advisory Group of Immunization (NTAGI) told Mirror Now.

He further added, “The genomic surveillance doesn’t suggest the appearance of any new variant. We don’t see anything of concern that there is clustering of cases around B.4 or B.5.”
What is the reason behind the sudden surge in cases?
Experts suggest that the cases are likely to rise even further as we get back to normalcy.

Dr Rakesh Mishra, Tata Institute for Genetics and Society believes that more variants will also keep on emerging but it shouldn’t concern people as long as precautionary measures are being taken.

“Variants will keep coming as it is trying to sustain. But it should not matter till the time we take all precautions. Masks are crucial. I don't think we will have the fourth wave because chances are extremely small,” he told news agency ANI in an interview.

The Maharashtra government brought back the mask mandate on June 4 after a severe upsurge was recorded in the state. Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) also made masks compulsory on all flights across all airlines and the airport in India.
Why is the fourth wave unlikely in India?
One possible reason behind an unlikely fourth wave could be strong immunity due to the COVID-19 vaccine.

Another eminent virologist Dr. T Jacob John also believes that the likelihood of a fourth wave of COVID-19 in the country is ‘extremely low’.

“The probability of a fourth wave is extremely low. Our best defense against the ill-effects of a wave is very high coverage of vaccination,” he said.

The total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered in the country so far has exceeded 194.76 crore.

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