scorecard
  1. Home
  2. slideshows
  3. miscellaneous
  4. Legendary economist Ed Yardeni gave a presentation to Trump's top economic advisers at the White House - here's what he told them

Legendary economist Ed Yardeni gave a presentation to Trump's top economic advisers at the White House - here's what he told them

Legendary economist Ed Yardeni gave a presentation to Trump's top economic advisers at the White House - here's what he told them
Slideshows1 min read

Manufacturing production and capacity

Manufacturing production and capacity

"President Trump won because he promised to bring good jobs back to the US," Yardeni wrote on his presentation.

"Rapid technological change is both disrupting and energizing our economy. The first effect tends to dampen productivity, while the second tends to boost it."

Real retail sales growth in China

Real retail sales growth in China

"China's one-child policy has created a demographic nightmare for the country," Yardeni wrote in his presentation, pointing to slowing retail sales growth as an indicator for the country's economic health.

"Hiding in plain sight is that China is seeking to become a super-power before it turns into the world’s largest nursing home," he wrote, adding that the country is still heavily dependent on trading with the rest of the world.

Price inflation vs. unemployment rate

Price inflation vs. unemployment rate

"There's no trade-off between price inflation and unemployment," Yardeni wrote, attempting to show that while unemployment in the US has fallen below 4%, inflation remains historically low.

Unemployment rate vs. the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment, or "NAIRU"

Unemployment rate vs. the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment, or "NAIRU"

In another chart on the labor market, Yardeni examined the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment, or "NAIRU," a measure based on the school of thought that a low-enough level of unemployment would give way to higher inflation.

Non-farm business productivity

Non-farm business productivity

"The productivity cycle may be starting to turn toward faster growth," Yardeni wrote in his presentation, showing non-farm business productivity has turned higher.

Real average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers

Real average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers

Yardeni brought this chart of real average hourly earnings (for production and nonsupervisory workers) along to showcase that real wages are in fact rising to record highs.

"I actually threw that in there because when the president was campaigning, he said a few times that real incomes have stagnated ... and I wanted to chart that real wages, inflation-adjusted, have been in uptrend," he told Business Insider.

S&P 500 operating profit margin

S&P 500 operating profit margin

"The cut in the corporate tax rate boosted profit margins and profits," Yardeni wrote atop this chart of the S&P 500's operating profit margin.

"I didn't say this at the meeting but Trump is probably the most bullish and bearish president we've ever had" in terms of tax reform (on the bullish end) and uncertain trade policy (on the bearish end), Yardeni said.

S&P 500

S&P 500

"The volatility in the S&P 500 has been exacerbated by 'algos,'" Yardeni wrote, referring to "algorithms" or algorithmic trading by machines that he thinks is rocking the stock market.

Yardeni said he suggested in his final point that the advisers take a close look at the way "high-frequency algorithms" are impacting the market and told Business Insider that Trump might be interested in addressing the issue given his concern with stock market trends.

"I wouldn't be surprised if he asked his advisers to explain the volatility."

Newsletter BI Logo
BI NEWSLETTER

Get your weekly dose of essential news delivered right to you, plus explore a world of insights with our diverse newsletter subscription options.

  • Weekly newsletter
  • Uncover the latest in Tech, Finance, Business, and more
  • Handpicked web stories, in-depth articles, and expert analyses
Copylink BI



Advertisement