Former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Raghuram RajanBCCL
Raghuram Rajan recommends that India has the option to borrow more, but it needs to be committed to returning to fiscal viability in the medium term. “For example, by setting future debt reduction targets through legislation, and committing to honest and transparent fiscal numbers with a watchdog independent fiscal council,” he wrote.
To get more money on hand, the government should have its public firm shares ready for on-tap sale in order to take advantage of high levels of activity in the market, according to Raghuram Rajan.
“The current period of buoyancy already looks like a missed opportunity,” he said, adding that many public sector entities have surplus land holding in prime areas that can be prepared for sale.
Even if a sale is not made immediately, preparation for the same will lend confidence to the bond market.
The government will need to spend, but where it chooses to spend will be even more important for the sustained recovery of the Indian economy. Raghuram Rajan believes that since Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) is a “tried and tested means of providing rural relief,” funds be made available as and when required.
For those poor households which do not have access to MGNREGA, the government should provide direct cash transfers (DCTs), he recommends.
The private sector has more capital at hand, which is why, according to Raghuram Rajan, bigger companies should help smaller ones get back on their feet — especially in cases where it helps the overall supply chain.
“Cash-rich platforms like Amazon, Reliance, and Walmart could help smaller suppliers get back on their feet, even funding some of them,” Rajan cited as an example.
Given the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on India’s GDP, Raghuram Rajan believes that a stimulus will be needed — especially in sectors like construction, which can create multiple jobs and increase the demand in other associated sectors like cement and steel.
Here, he says, that the centre should help the state governments with finances for them to spend more on infrastructure development.
Reforms can also be a type of stimulus. Like the announcement of Atmanirbhar Bharat, just a timeline or the indication of upcoming reforms can boost investor sentiment, according to Rajan.
“The world will recover earlier than India, so exports can be a way for India to grow,” he said. However, in order to take advantage of that, Rajan believes that India needs to undo its recent tariffs increase so that inputs can again be imported at a low cost. This will boost the margins for companies using those inputs and shipping out value-added products.
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