- Early 2022 seemed to be a dire time for San Francisco, with shocking examples of retail crime.
- Retailers pointed to raging shoplifting stats as stores closed, contributing to the city's "doom loop."
In the summer of 2021, reported shoplifting incidents in San Francisco exploded.
These reports showed increasingly brazen and coordinated attacks on retail stores. Retailers like Whole Foods and Walgreens referenced retail crime as a rationale for shuttering San Francisco stores. A San Francisco Target placed more merchandise under lock and key and increased reporting to police.
Experts warned of a worsening "doom loop." Billionaire CEO Elon Musk described the city as a "derelict zombie apocalypse."
In the months that followed, alarming anecdotes coupled with elevated crime stats cemented a narrative about the city's intractable problem with retail theft, further complicated by homelessness and drug addiction issues.
But a recent analysis of shoplifting data suggests the apocalypse might be more of an apoca-blip (for retail crime, at least).
For more than a year now, reported shoplifting incidents are roughly half of what they were at their peak and 5% below the pre-pandemic norm, according to a recent report from the Council on Criminal Justice.
The reduction in the Golden Gate City's shoplifting levels is better than that of Chattanooga, Tennessee, and effectively in line with Memphis (also Tennessee) and Lincoln, Nebraska — none particularly known as being lawless hellscapes for retail.
Of course, that's not to say everything is copacetic in the Bay Area.
The CCJ report also found that even though there may be fewer incidents of shoplifting, criminals are stealing more expensive stuff and are more likely to use violence.
Even more critically, tax data indicate retail sales remain well below 2019 levels, especially in the city's former powerhouse districts. Retail's recovery is making some progress, but there's still a long way to go.
Of the numerous challenges confronting San Francisco one year ago, retail crime is one that at least seems not to be getting worse.