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'AI demand train running at full speed': Here's what Wall Street expects from Nvidia's first-quarter earnings

Matthew Fox   

'AI demand train running at full speed': Here's what Wall Street expects from Nvidia's first-quarter earnings
  • Nvidia is set to report its first-quarter earnings results after the market close on Wednesday.
  • Wall Street expects more sales of Nvidia's AI chip before its next-gen Blackwell release.

Nvidia has a lot to prove when it reports its first-quarter earnings results after the market close on Wednesday.

That's because its stock has surged 91% year to date, is up about 200% over the past year, and is up nearly 500% since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022.

Here are the estimates for Nvidia's first-quarter earnings report:

  • Revenue: $24.69 billion
  • Earnings per share: $5.34
  • EBITDA: $16.74 billion

With Nvidia's next-generation Blackwell AI chipset set to be released later this year, analysts will be trying to gauge whether a slowdown in sales of its current-generation H100 chips is on the horizon. Also top of mind for investors will be updated guidance and views on the supply-demand dynamic for its AI-enabling chips.

Here's what Wall Street expects from Nvidia's upcoming earnings report.

Wells Fargo: 'Improving H100 GPU Lead Times + H200 Ramp = Data Center Upside'

Wells Fargo raised its Nvidia price target to $1,150 in a note last week, saying that "improving H100 GPU lead times + H200 ramp = data center upside."

"We are positive on the setup into F1Q25 print and see intra-qtr data points supporting Data Center revenue upside into $23-$24B+ range," a Wells Fargo analyst, Aaron Rakers, said.

Rakers said recent demand data points from Super Micro Computer and Taiwan Semiconductor boded well for Nvidia, in addition to recent commentary from megacap tech companies regarding their planned cloud capital expenditures.

Wells Fargo rated Nvidia as "overweight" with a $1,150 price target.

Bank of America: Expect a beat but increased stock volatility as well

Vivek Arya, a Bank of America analyst, said that while he still thought Nvidia was a "top pick" and expected the company to beat earnings estimates, four factors could increase the stock's volatility following the earnings report.

The first is the potential for quarterly revenue deceleration ahead of Nvidia's launch of the Blackwell chip. This highlights that the July quarter could see Nvidia deliver less than 10% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth as customers pause their purchases until the chip's release.

The three other factors, Arya said, are: "2) Greater China dependence for 2H: start of H20 shipments helps 2H growth pre Blackwell, but also raises China restriction risks, 3) Limited update to '40% inference mix' metric — recall this is what helped the stock on last call, 4) Upcoming Computex perhaps less newsworthy than last quarter's GTC anticipation."

Arya added that Nvidia could report more "normalized" gross margins in the mid-70s vs. its consistent expansion to 77% over the past six quarters.

Bank of America rated Nvidia as "buy" with a $1,100 price target.

Deutsche Bank: 'AI leadership to continue'

Deutsche Bank said it fully expected Nvidia to deliver "healthy multi-billion dollar beats/raises on still healthy demand for AI compute."

"While on the margin some may be paring back orders ahead of the launch of Blackwell, we still expect aggregate demand trends to remain healthy," Deutsche Bank said. "Overall, we remain impressed by NVDAs best-in-class technology roadmap and believe AI fervor by its customers is likely to be sustained (see still strong capex commentary from META, MSFT), yielding yet another strong quarter/guide."

However, the bank sees much of that strength already priced into the stock, leading the firm to believe that Nvidia stock is "fully valued," it said.

Deutsche Bank rated Nvidia as "hold" with a $850 price target.

Bloomberg Intelligence: 'Nvidia has more levers to attack the market'

Oscar Hernandez Tejada, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst, said in a recent note he expected Nvidia to report "a solid beat and raise" on Wednesday, saying that "Nvidia's AI demand train running at full speed."

"During 1Q, we saw multiple demand signals, namely rising cloud capital-spending outlook, AI upside by TSMC and accelerating AI investments from sovereign entities, highlighting continued momentum," Tejada said. "With H100 lead times falling and H200 and GB200 products now in the mix (with higher average selling prices), Nvidia has more levers to attack the market."


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