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The overall size of the budget has remained almost unchanged from the interim one presented in February, indicating the government's strong commitment to move along the <keyword id="20099794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fiscal-prudence" source="keywords">fiscal prudence</keyword> path, said experts on Tuesday. According to the <keyword id="19908389" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Union-Budget" source="keywords">Union Budget</keyword> 2024-25 presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, the total expenditure in Budget Estimates (BE) 2024-25 is estimated at Rs 48,20,512 crore of which total <keyword id="20018917" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="capital-expenditure" source="keywords">capital expenditure</keyword> is Rs 11,11,111 crore. The total expenditure in the Interim Budget presented in February was estimated at Rs 47,65,768 crore of which total capital expenditure was Rs 11.11 lakh crore. Debadatta Chand, Managing Director &amp; CEO, <keyword id="19920717" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bank-of-Baroda" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Bank of Baroda" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Bank of Baroda">Bank of Baroda</keyword>, said the Union Budget complements the main takeaways from the Economic Survey and focusses clearly on medium term development of the economy. "The overall size of the budget has remained almost unchanged from the interim one. The budget has shown strong intent on moving along the fiscal prudence path and targeted the <keyword id="19942084" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fiscal-deficit" source="keywords">fiscal deficit</keyword> at 4.9 per cent for the year," he said. The said action will keep the growth steady as well as robust not only for economy but also banking. Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA Limited, said the budget has kept the capital expenditure unchanged and pared the fiscal deficit to 4.9 per cent of GDP. "The anticipated reiteration of the reduction in the fiscal deficit to below 4.5 per cent of GDP in FY2026 is welcome. Interestingly, the new medium term fiscal consolidation path has been linked to a reduction in the debt/GDP ratio instead of continued compression of the fiscal deficit/GDP ratio," she said. Buoyed by improvement in revenue collection, the government has lowered fiscal deficit target to 4.9 per cent for the current <keyword id="19910979" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-year" source="keywords">financial year</keyword> as against 5.1 per cent estimated in February's interim budget. Ranen Banerjee, Partner and Leader Economic Advisory, PwC India, said that fiscal prudence is the highlight of the full Union Budget 2024-25. The government has gone with realistic projections on its revenue and expenditure estimates and refrained from announcing overly populist measures. "The majority of the allocations, including the capex allocation, are as outlined in the interim budget, thus providing continuity. The capex being kept at INR 11.11 trillion was expected, given that the ability to consume this allocation is limited due to disruption from the elections in the first quarter and the second quarter being typically slowed down by the monsoons," Banerjee said. Institute of Chartered Accountants of India (ICAI) President Ranjeet Kumar Agarwal said the government has announced five schemes to facilitate employment and skilling for 4.1 crore youth over the next five years with a central outlay of Rs 2 lakh crore. "This is a welcome step that will create a skilled workforce to address the existing deficit and generate <keyword id="19972727" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="employment-opportunities" source="keywords">employment opportunities</keyword>. Additionally, financial support for loans up to Rs 10 lakh for higher education will help students pursue higher education and acquire skills," he added. Indian Institute of Insolvency Professionals of ICAI (IIIPI) Chairman Ashok Haldia said the budget proposals for an integrated technology platform and sprucing up NCLT infrastructure will provide a fillip to the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) regime. IIIPI is promoted by ICAI. Meanwhile, Kumarmangalam Vijay, Partner, JSA Advocates and Solicitors, opined that in its new avatar, it seems that the Modi government is keen to deliver on its promise of 'ease of doing business'. "Its focus on making it simpler is evident from the abolition of the angel tax, the increase in new income tax regime thresholds, new Vivad se Vishwas Scheme 2024 for the resolution of pending cases and the increase in the threshold for appeal by tax departments at various levels, decriminalising the non-reporting of shares received from non-resident employers and reducing the period for re-opening of the cases," Vijay said. The Institute of Company Secretaries of India (ICSI) said there has been a focus on the manufacturing sector in the budget. Measures have been taken for simplifying the FDI/ODI rules and regulations, and the <keyword id="21847964" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tax-regimes" source="keywords">tax regimes</keyword>. The enhanced Mudra loan limit and the abolition of angel tax are all set to incentivize the startup and MSME ecosystem of the country. "The nine priorities identified in this progressive and inclusive budget 2024 are aimed at generating ample opportunities for all. Besides agricultural reforms, the budget focuses on skilling, educating and employing the youth, a priority that the ICSI has been concentrating on," said ICSI President B Narasimhan. Rajesh Magow, Co-Founder and Group CEO, MakeMyTrip, said the government's continued emphasis on infrastructure development is commendable. Enhanced road infrastructure will bolster the travel and tourism sector. "We also welcome the initiatives to develop iconic spiritual and cultural sites into world-class tourist hotspots," Magow said. Furthermore, he said the provision of credit for TCS against income tax under 'Income from Salaries' is logical and will provide much-desired relief to taxpayers who travel internationally.

Budget size almost unchanged from interim, shows govt's commitment to fiscal prudence: Experts

<ul><li>Corporate loan growth originations grew in lower single digits in FY23.</li><li>Investment announcements in 2023 were at their lowest since 2018, excluding 2020.</li><li>Auto, home and other consumption loans saw sharp growth, led by <keyword id="20026653" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="personal" source="keywords">personal</keyword> loans. </li></ul>Large corporates are still not driving India’s credit growth as private capital expenditure is yet to pick up pace. While consumption, MSME and microfinance loans’ originations volume grew in double digits between FY22 and FY23, corporate loan growth was at a mere 2.4%, as per <keyword id="19994500" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="crif" source="keywords">CRIF</keyword> High Mark’s report on ‘How India Lends’. Investments by companies have remained in the slow lane even in FY24, according to a report by <keyword id="19920717" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bank-of-baroda" source="keywords">Bank of Baroda</keyword>. In the first three quarters of FY24, investments to the tune of ₹10.80 lakh crore were announced. Most of these announcements were dominated by airlines, power, chemicals and machinery. Bank of Baroda in a report said that 2023’s investment announcements, most of which might not materialize, are at the lowest since 2018. That however excludes 2020, when Covid-19 induced lockdown was in-effect. “Data on new investment announcements do indicate that industry in general is still in a wait and watch mode. One factor holding back investment could be excess capacity in several sectors. <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> data for June shows the average at 73.6%,” said economists at Bank of Baroda. Apart from this, uncertainty due to the elections could have played a role in companies being tight fisted. “The third factor could be high interest rates and the expectation of repo rate cuts next year in the second quarter of the fiscal,” the economists added. The consumption loan boom On the other hand, consumption loans that include home loans, auto loans, personal loans etc, grew the fastest at 37.7% in FY23. Within consumption, personal loans saw the sharpes growth, followed by consumer durable loans. Public and private sector banks give a large chunk of home loans. “There is a 22% increase in average ticket size (ATS) from ₹20.2 lakh in FY20 to ₹24.7 lakh in FY23. There has been a shift in originations by both value and volume seen from ticket size ₹5-35 lakh to ₹35-75 lakh,” said CRIF. Housing finance companies and PSU banks lead ticket size bands under ₹75L, while private banks lead the over ₹75 lakh ticket size loan market. Loan origination growth (FY22 to FY23) <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; table-layout: fixed; width: 468pt;" class="redcator-table-advance"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Consumption Loan Type </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Portfolio size </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Origination value growth </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Origination volume growth </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Home Loans </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">₹30.7 lakh crore </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">18.1% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">13.1% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Personal Loans </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">₹10.9 lakh crore </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">35.2% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">50.7% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Two-Wheeler Loans </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">₹1.1 lakh crore </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">50.3% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">35.3% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Auto Loans </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">₹5.9 lakh crore </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">37.6% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">21.1% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Consumer Durable Loans </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">₹0.5 lakh crore </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">32.8% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">37.5% </td></tr></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody></table>Source: CRIF *Portfolio as of June 2023 Fintechs lead personal loan growth Personal loans are dominated by public sector banks and private banks by value; and NBFCs by volume. Loan originations grew twice over in both value and volume from FY20 to FY23. “Fintechs lead the growth in small ticket and small tenor loans. Their share in originations volume for ticket size under-₹25,000 loans went up to 75% in FY23 from 67% in FY20,” said CRIF. MSME and microfinance loan originations volume grew 20.8% and 16.6% respectively, as per the CRIF report. "MSME lending experienced substantial percentage growth in originations by value, with the micro segment being the largest contributor. These trends, combined with an encouraging improvement in delinquencies, thus, reflect the resilience of the Indian economy,” said <keyword id="20372020" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sanjeet-dawar" source="keywords">Sanjeet Dawar</keyword>, MD of CRIF High Mark.

India’s corporates in ‘wait and watch’ mode as consumption loans zoom

<ul><li>The <keyword id="12067675" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="core-sector-growth" source="Orion">core sector growth</keyword> was 19.3% in May 2022 while in April 2023 the key infra sectors recorded a growth rate of 4.3%. </li><li>Electricity production declined marginally due to the high base effect of 23.5% growth last year, which was unusually hot. </li><li>Fertilizer production was up by 9.7% and will continue to remain robust for the next two months to keep pace with the kharif sowing requirements, say economists at <keyword id="6358007" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="bank-of-baroda" source="Orion">Bank of Baroda</keyword>. </li></ul>The growth of eight key infrastructure sectors slowed down to 4.3 per cent in May 2023 due to a decline in the production of crude oil, natural gas, and electricity. The core sector growth was 19.3% in May 2022 while in April 2023 the key infra sectors recorded a growth rate of 4.3%. During April-May this fiscal, the output growth of these eight sectors slowed down to 4.3 per cent as against 14.3 per cent in the year-ago period. “Core sector growth for May came in at 4.3% which is quite impressive considering that last year growth was 19.3%,” said <keyword id="170005" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="madan-sabnavis" source="Orion">Madan Sabnavis</keyword>, chief economist at Bank of Baroda. Crude oil production declined by 1.9% in May 2023 while natural gas production declined by 0.3%. Petroleum refinery production increased by 2.8%. “The oil basket however continued to disappoint with negative growth for crude and natural gas. Lower global crude prices normally are associated with lower domestic production. Refinery products did relatively better with 2.8% growth with exports also contributing to the same,” <keyword id="4667782" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="sabnavis" source="Orion">Sabnavis</keyword> said. Coal growth was 7.2%, and that can be attributed to higher steel production. Electricity production declined marginally by 0.3% mainly due to the high base effect of 23.5% growth last year. “It was otherwise a very hot month where demand had gone up as demand for cooling increased,” said Sabnavis. Fertilizer production was up by 9.7% and will continue to remain robust for the next two months to keep pace with the kharif sowing requirements, he adds, saying that they expect IIP growth to be in the region of 3-3.5% for May. Steel production increased by 9.2%, while cement production increased by 15.5%. (With PTI inputs)

Core sector growth slows to 4.3% in May, experts call it high base effect

<keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="90" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword> Governor Shaktikanta Das-headed Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) started its three-day meeting on Monday amid expectations of a smaller 25 basis points rate increase or a pause on the rate hiking spree that started in May last year to check inflation. The decision of the six-member rate setting panel will be announced by the Governor on Wednesday. With retail inflation showing signs of moderation and remaining below the <keyword id="6354335" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="Orion">Reserve Bank of India</keyword>'s 6 per cent upper tolerance level, and projected slowdown in GDP growth in the next fiscal starting April, experts are of the opinion that the central <keyword id="15308630" type="TOPIC" weightage="60" keywordseo="Bank" source="TOPIC" sourcekeytype="finance,investopedia" meta.keywordsubtype="null" meta.msid="93495953" meta.seopath="b/bank" meta.entityname="Bank" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="bank">bank</keyword> may only opt for a 25 basis points hike in the key interest rate. Another opinion is that the RBI may press the pause button on rate hike on Wednesday itself. "We expect the RBI to pause in February policy," <keyword id="6354731" type="DOMAIN" weightage="20" keywordseo="state-bank-of-india" botkeyword="" source="ET" sourcekeytype="COMPANY" meta.keywordsubtype="EQ" meta.aliasname="state bank of india" meta.entityname="State Bank of India" meta.entityid="11984" meta.seoname="state-bank-of-india">State Bank of India</keyword>'s Economic Research Department said in a report titled 'Prelude to MPC Meeting on Feb 6-8, 2023'. In the current rate cycle, it said that rate actions, both hikes and cuts, have been largely synchronised with actions of the monetary authorities in the developed nations. The stance, the <keyword id="13222" type="DOMAIN" weightage="20" keywordseo="sbi" botkeyword="" source="ET" sourcekeytype="COMPANY" meta.keywordsubtype="EQ" meta.aliasname="sbi" meta.entityname="State Bank of India" meta.entityid="11984" meta.seoname="state-bank-of-india">SBI</keyword> report said could continue to be withdrawal of accommodation, even as <keyword id="15316241" type="TOPIC" weightage="60" keywordseo="Liquidity" source="TOPIC" sourcekeytype="economy,investopedia" meta.keywordsubtype="null" meta.seopath="l/liquidity" meta.entityname="Liquidity" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="liquidity">liquidity</keyword> is close to neutral. "Even though the RBI could pause as it allows past rate actions to work with long and variable lags, the RBI could still guide the markets with a rate action in future that will be purely data dependent," it said. According to the report, 6.25 per cent <keyword id="15378998" type="TOPIC" weightage="60" keywordseo="Repo-Rate" source="TOPIC" sourcekeytype="economy,budget,investopedia" meta.keywordsubtype="null" meta.seopath="r/repo-rate" meta.entityname="Repo Rate" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="repo-rate">repo rate</keyword> could be the terminal rate for now. In its December monetary policy review, the central bank raised the key <keyword id="15316469" type="TOPIC" weightage="60" keywordseo="Benchmark" source="TOPIC" sourcekeytype="mutual-fund,investopedia" meta.keywordsubtype="null" meta.seopath="b/benchmark" meta.entityname="Benchmark" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="benchmark">benchmark</keyword> interest rate (repo) by 35 basis points (bps) after delivering three back-to-back increases of 50 bps. Since May last year, the RBI has increased the short-term lending rate by 225 basis points to contain inflation, mostly driven by external factors, especially global <keyword id="15312689" type="TOPIC" weightage="60" keywordseo="Supply" source="TOPIC" sourcekeytype="economy,investopedia" meta.keywordsubtype="null" meta.msid="93027566" meta.seopath="s/supply" meta.entityname="Supply" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="supply">supply</keyword> chain disruption following the Russia-Ukraine war outbreak. Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist at <keyword id="6358007" type="DOMAIN" weightage="20" keywordseo="bank-of-baroda" botkeyword="" source="ET" sourcekeytype="COMPANY" meta.keywordsubtype="EQ" meta.aliasname="bank of baroda" meta.entityname="Bank of Baroda" meta.entityid="12040" meta.seoname="bank-of-baroda">Bank of Baroda</keyword>, said the <keyword id="15313867" type="TOPIC" weightage="60" keywordseo="Credit" source="TOPIC" sourcekeytype="finance,investopedia" meta.keywordsubtype="null" meta.msid="92548261" meta.seopath="c/credit" meta.entityname="Credit" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="credit">credit</keyword> policy will be announced against the background of both the Budget that was presented as well as the Economic Survey that served as the prelude to it. The Budget has maintained a virtually unchanged borrowing programme while the Survey has pointed to the persistence of higher interest rates in the coming year. While inflation has been trending downwards, there has been a tendency for <keyword id="15376162" type="TOPIC" weightage="60" keywordseo="Core-Inflation" source="TOPIC" sourcekeytype="investopedia" meta.keywordsubtype="null" meta.seopath="c/core-inflation" meta.entityname="Core Inflation" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="core-inflation">core inflation</keyword> to remain sticky. Inflation has come down mainly due to lower food inflation which can be volatile. Also, the decision taken this time cannot be reversed soon, he said. "Under these conditions, the RBI will pitch for another 25 bps hike in the repo rate which will be the last in this cycle, and then pause. The stance however may change from the withdrawal of accommodation to neutral as liquidity is no longer in a large surplus. In fact, based on developments that take place, there may be need to infuse liquidity during the course of the year," Sabnavis opined. The RBI has been tasked to ensure that retail inflation remains at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent. However, it failed to keep the inflation rate below six per cent for three consecutive quarters beginning January 2022. However, the retail inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown signs of moderation in November and December as it fell below the RBI's upper tolerance level of 6 per cent. The MPC consists of three RBI officials and three external members appointed by the central government. The external members are Shashanka Bhide (Honorary Senior Advisor, National Council of Applied Economic Research, Delhi); Ashima Goyal (Emeritus Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai); and Jayanth R Varma (Professor, Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad). Apart from the Governor, the RBI officials on the panel are Rajiv Ranjan (Executive Director) and Michael Debabrata Patra (Deputy Governor). SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/gold-plunges-574-silver-plummets-2113-amid-weak-global-trends/articleshow/97644748.cms">Gold plunges ₹574, silver plummets ₹2,113 amid weak global trends</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/banks/news/bandhan-bank-hikes-interest-rates-on-fixed-deposits/articleshow/97646005.cms">Bandhan Bank hikes interest rates on fixed deposits</a>

RBI's Monetary Policy Committee meeting starts amid expectations of lower rate hike

<ul><li><keyword id="4667782" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="sabnavis" source="Orion">Sabnavis</keyword> said it believes that the terminal repo rate for the financial year is expected to be 6.5 per cent.</li><li>An out-of-turn meeting of the <keyword id="6375120" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="monetary-policy-committee" source="Orion">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India was held in early November.</li><li><keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword> had already hiked the key policy rate by 190 basis points since May to 5.9 per cent to cool off domestic retail inflation.</li></ul> The Reserve Bank of India's three-day monetary policy committee meeting commences today. Financial markets will be keenly watching the committee's stance as consumer inflation is still above the 6 per cent target band. "The RBI will be presenting the monetary policy against the backdrop of GDP growth slowing down as well as inflation being high above 6 per cent. We do believe that the MPC will continue with rate hikes this time though the magnitude will be lower - probably 25-35 bps," said <keyword id="170005" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="madan-sabnavis" source="Orion">Madan Sabnavis</keyword>, Chief Economist at <keyword id="6358007" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="bank-of-baroda" source="Orion">Bank of Baroda</keyword>. More specifically, Sabnavis said it believes that the terminal repo rate for the financial year is expected to be 6.5 per cent, which essentially means there will be one more rate hike in February meeting. "It is unlikely to change the stance and the withdrawal of liquidity will continue. While the RBI will take a hard look at both the GDP and inflation projections, there could be some downward revision for GDP growth. In short, there will not be any surprise for the market just as is the case for global markets too which are now expecting more moderate increases in interest rates by the <keyword id="45672" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="fed" source="Orion">Fed</keyword>," Sabnavis added. The central bank had already hiked the key policy rate by 190 basis points since May to 5.9 per cent to cool off domestic retail inflation that has stayed above the RBI's upper tolerance limit for over three quarters now. In October, retail inflation was 6.77 per cent. Under the flexible inflation targeting framework introduced in 2016, the RBI is deemed to have failed in managing price rises if the CPI-based inflation is outside the 2-6 per cent range for three quarters in a row. An out-of-turn meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India was held in early November to discuss and draft the report to be sent to the central government for having failed in maintaining the inflation mandate. The meeting was called under Section 45ZN of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Act 1934, which pertains to steps to be taken if the central bank fails to meet its inflation-targeting mandate. Further details about the special meeting are not officially in the public domain. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/more-to-be-expected-from-rbis-mpc-meeting-than-just-a-rate-hike-say-experts/articleshow/95991628.cms">More to be expected from RBI's MPC meeting than just a rate hike say experts</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/science/health/news/canada-overwhelmed-with-tridemic-of-covid-19-flu-and-respiratory-syncytial-virus/articleshow/95990833.cms">Canada overwhelmed with 'tridemic' of Covid-19, flu and respiratory syncytial virus</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/startups/news/jio-haptik-aims-to-turn-profitable-before-listing/articleshow/95975823.cms">With an eye on listing in the future, Jio Haptik trains guns on growth &amp; profitability</a>

Bank of Baroda expects 25-35 basis points rate hike from Dec 5-7 RBI policy meet

<ul><li>Rising inflation has dampened overall credit card spends in August, but experts say they will bounce back in September thanks to festival sales.</li><li>Overall, Indians spent over ₹1 lakh crore for the sixth consecutive month, and the average dues have continued to rise.</li><li>Indians also spent three times as much using credit cards versus debit cards while buying things on e-commerce websites.</li></ul>Credit card users have spent over ₹1 lakh crore now for the sixth consecutive month. In August, credit card users spent ₹1.13 lakh crore in August, down from ₹1.17 lakh crore in July. This is despite a decline of 2 million in terms of active credit cards in August – the fall is due to RBI’s new guidelines. Trends suggest that people will continue to swipe more credit cards and their spending will hit the ₹1.2 lakh crore mark in September. The spends in September are expected to be buoyed by festive sales across e-commerce and offline retail platforms, after ecommerce spends fell in August. “Upcoming e-com festive sales (Big Billion day and Great Indian Festival) are likely to revive the e-com mix (% of total spends) back to Apr-Jul '22 levels,” said a report by <keyword id="46909" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="icici-securities" source="Orion">ICICI Securities</keyword>. A rise in prices and Indians’ love for travel has set the perfect tone for an increase in overall credit card outstandings. “Revival in air travel, hospitality sector as well as increasing inflation outlook set a positive backdrop to credit card spend as well as receivables,” the report added. Indians being tired of not going out anywhere for two years due to the Covid-19 pandemic has helped boost demand in the hospitality sector, according to a report by ratings agency CARE. “FY22 has been a promising year for the sector wherein the revival in the occupancy and RevPAR has led to green shoots for the industry players. The decline in Covid cases, resumption of international flights from March 2022, and strong leisure and wedding demand are the positive factors that should lead to growth in occupancy and ARRs in FY23,” the CARE report said. Dues per card continued their upward trajectory, too. “Receivables, in terms of CC outstanding per CIF at industry level, have trended from ₹18,000 as of December 2021 to ₹20,100 for January to May 2022 and increased to ₹20,300 in July 2022,” the ICICI Securities report added. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Here’s a snapshot of the Indian credit card industry" comment="subhead" text="Here’s a snapshot of the Indian credit card industry">Here’s a snapshot of the Indian credit card industry</cmsannotation> <keyword id="6357149" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="hdfc-bank" source="Orion">HDFC Bank</keyword> continues to lead the market in total credit cards and spends. <div type="image" title="Credit Card market share August 2022." msid="94537974" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Credit card market share August 2022&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> However, SBI Card is closing the gap in terms of credit cards in force. <div type="image" title="Credit cards in force trend Jan-Aug 2022." msid="94537984" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Credit cards in force&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> Despite accounting for only 21% of the total credit cards in use, HDFC Bank users spent 29% of the total money. <div type="image" title="Credit card spends market share August 2022." msid="94537997" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Credit card spends market share August 2022&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> As far as spends are concerned, HDFC Bank continues to go from strength to strength. <div type="image" title="Credit card spends per card trend Jan-Aug 2022." msid="94538006" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Credit card spends per card trend&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> However, HDFC Bank credit card users aren’t the most lavish spenders – and two unassuming names are in a tug of war when it comes to this. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/banks/news/indusind-bank-has-most-valuable-credit-cardholders-in-india-compared-to-hdfc-sbi-citi/articleshow/91784122.cms">IndusInd Bank was once the leader in this metric</a> – it was<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/banks/news/indians-love-for-travel-is-so-strong-that-its-boosting-credit-card-spends/articleshow/93859780.cms"> dethroned by Bank of Baroda in July</a> – and now it has won back its throne again. <div type="image" title="Credit card value per card August 2022." msid="94538034" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Credit card value per card&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/adani-greens-54-rally-tempts-totalenergies-to-book-profits/articleshow/94529227.cms">Adani Green’s 54% rally this year tempts TotalEnergies to book profits</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/retail/news/jewellery-chains-are-growing-at-the-cost-of-standalone-jewellers-and-its-only-going-to-get-worse-says-world-gold-council-report/articleshow/94510142.cms">Jewellery chains are growing at the cost of standalone jewellers – and it’s only going to get worse, says World Gold Council report</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/amid-concerns-of-jio-airtel-duopoly-analysts-suggest-new-telecom-bill-empowers-govt-to-maintain-competition/articleshow/94502923.cms">Amid concerns of Jio-Airtel duopoly, analysts suggest new telecom bill empowers govt to maintain competition</a>

E-commerce sales likely to drive credit card spends in September even as active cards decline

<keyword id="640142" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="housing-finance-company" source="Orion">Housing Finance Company</keyword> HDFC has increased its Retail Prime Lending Rate (<keyword id="413108" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="rplr" source="Orion">RPLR</keyword>) on housing loans by 5 basis points. The revision would come into effect from Wednesday itself. The upward revision in rates will essentially lead to an increase in EMIs for borrowers. The hike in rates came close on the heels of central bank <keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>'s recent hike in repo rate by 40 basis points, besides giving indications it would raise rates further in the upcoming monetary policy review meets. On Wednesday, <keyword id="62034" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="punjab-national-bank" source="Orion">Punjab National Bank</keyword> (<keyword id="47268" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="pnb" source="Orion">PNB</keyword>) too raised its marginal cost of funds-based lending rate by 15 basis points with immediate effect. Recently, banks such as <keyword id="13222" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="sbi" source="Orion">SBI</keyword> and <keyword id="6358007" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="bank-of-baroda" source="Orion">Bank of Baroda</keyword> too have hiked their lending rates across various tenures, as per reports. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="http://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/moto-g82-5g-expected-to-launch-in-india-on-june-9-expected-price-specs-and-everything-you-need-to-know/articleshow/91919825.cms">Moto G82 5G expected to launch in India on June 9 – expected price, specs and everything you need to know</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="http://www.businessinsider.in/cryptocurrency/news/an-indian-home-can-live-for-a-year-with-the-energy-it-needs-to-mine-a-single-bitcoin/articleshow/91916128.cms">An Indian home can live for a year with the energy it needs to mine a single Bitcoin</a>

HDFC raises lending rates on housing loans by 5 basis points

<ul><li>High vegetable inflation, driven by hardening onion prices, has kept food inflation at 8.66% in February.</li><li>With low reservoir levels in many states, food inflation in FY25 is expected to be driven by monsoons, say experts.</li><li>The RBI is focused on bringing inflation below 4% and might continue the status quo for a longer time now, believe experts. </li></ul>In February, retail inflation came in on expected lines at 5.09%. However, high vegetable inflation, driven by hardening onion prices has kept food inflation up at 8.66%. Experts now believe that the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) which has been focussed on bringing inflation to 4%, will maintain the status quo in the upcoming credit policy. “We expect inflation to average 4.8% in FY25. Given that the RBI Governor has been highlighting the aim of getting inflation to 4% on a durable basis, the policy rates are likely to be kept on hold in the upcoming policy meeting, with no change in stance,” said <keyword id="20938330" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rajni-sinha" source="keywords">Rajni Sinha</keyword>, chief economist, CareEdge Ratings. Regulator to continue cautious stance Despite expectations from the market, the RBI has maintained its ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ stance in the last policy meeting in February. This policy, aiming to curtail inflation further, entails a reduction of easy money supply in the system, which started during the initial COVID-19 phase. RBI governor <keyword id="19913110" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="shaktikanta-das" source="keywords">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> had also earlier spoken about the risk of food inflation spilling into broader inflation. “We retain our view that RBI will remain cautious on volatile food inflation trajectory and hence prefer to remain in pause mode on rates till August policy. However, with RBI already having continuously fine-tuning liquidity and easing overnight rates closer to the repo rate, we see room for a shift in stance in the June policy,” said <keyword id="20169699" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="upasna-bhardwaj" source="keywords">Upasna Bhardwaj</keyword>, chief economist at <keyword id="19938495" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="kotak-mahindra-bank" source="keywords">Kotak Mahindra Bank</keyword>. Agrees Akhil Mittal, Senior Fund Manager-Fixed Income, <keyword id="20929846" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tata-asset-management" source="keywords">Tata Asset Management</keyword>, “We anticipate the regulator to maintain a cautious stance. We think RBI would rather continue with stability priority and continue maintaining the 4% inflation target as sacrosanct, and hence we do not see a premature easing from RBI.” Vegetable inflation zooms, pulses in a tough zone Vegetable inflation came in high at 30.3% in February, and experts believe that pricey onions will keep food inflation elevated. Inflation in pulses, spices and eggs also saw double-digit inflation. Edible oils and fats have brought down inflation to an extent with negative growth. The food basket has nearly 50% weightage in the consumer price inflation (CPI) data. “Inflation is purely a food inflation-driven phenomenon which will continue to pressurise inflation in the coming months. Besides, horticulture output this year is expected to be lower than last year. Cereals, eggs, sugar, spices and pulses are the other pain points here,” comments <keyword id="20102121" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="madan-sabnavis" source="keywords">Madan Sabnavis</keyword>, chief economist at Bank of Baroda. The outlook for food prices is also bleak with lower reservoir levels and their impact on agricultural output. “The ongoing high inflation in specific food categories, including cereals, pulses, spices, and vegetables pose a risk of potentially broadening price pressures and de-anchoring inflationary expectations. Reservoir levels, particularly in eastern and southern India, persist at lower levels. Consequently, the forthcoming monsoon in FY25 holds significant importance for the trajectory of food inflation,” said Sinha. Core inflation has however remained soft, staying below the 4% threshold for three consecutive months. Rural inflation came in higher at 5.3%, while urban inflation is at 4.8% — mostly due to higher weightage of food products in the former index. Twelve of India’s 22 states saw inflation of above 5.1%. Odisha had the highest at 7.6%, while Delhi saw the lowest at 5.3%.

RBI likely to maintain status quo after food inflation keeps Feb print high, say experts

<ul><li>Retail inflation eased to a three-month in January mainly on account of lower food prices.</li><li>Twelve of the 22 states witnessed higher than average inflation, especially in large states like Maharashtra, UP, Gujarat, Karnataka.</li><li><keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword>'s industrial production grew 3.8% in December 2023, according to official data. </li></ul>Retail inflation eased to a three-month low of 5.1% in January mainly on account of lower food prices, according to official data released on Monday. Inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was at 5.69% in December 2023 and 6.52% in January 2024. In August 2023, inflation touched a high of 6.83%. According to the data released by the <keyword id="20070866" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="national-statistical-office" source="keywords">National Statistical Office</keyword> (<keyword id="20067517" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nso" source="keywords">NSO</keyword>), retail inflation in the food basket was at 8.3% in January 2024, down from 9.53% in the preceding month. “Inflation came in higher for December than our expectations at 5.1% against 4.7%, though lower than that of November which was 5.7%. Food products continue to exert upward pressure on inflation with cereals, vegetables, fruits, pulses, sugar and spices all witnessing high increases. There has been soothing of inflation in the core goods and services which is a relief from the point of view of monetary policy,” said <keyword id="20102121" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="madan-sabnavis" source="keywords">Madan Sabnavis</keyword>, chief economist at Bank of Baroda. Twelve of the 22 states witnessed higher than average inflation. It indicates that inflation is still high in large states like Maharashtra, UP, Gujarat, Karnataka, opine experts. The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> has been tasked by the government to ensure retail inflation remains at 4%. “With RBI stating risk of food inflation translating into generalised inflation, we expect RBI to continue cautious stance. However, softening of core inflation should provide confidence to trajectory of inflation moving as expected. We think RBI would rather continue with stability priority and continue maintaining 4% inflation target as sacrosanct, and hence we do not see premature easing from RBI,” said Akhil Mittal, senior fund manager-fixed income, Tata Mutual Fund. Most experts believe that uncertain food prices will keep the central bank cautious. "CPI inflation came in slightly softer than our expectations led by moderation in food prices. Positively though, core inflation softened in line with our expectations. However, uncertainties in food inflation outlook should keep RBI cautious in the near term, with much of action by the RBI expected on the liquidity front," said Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist, Kotak Mahindra Bank. Industrial production grows 3.8% in December 2023 India's industrial production grew 3.8% in December 2023, according to official data released on Monday. Factory output measured in terms of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) had witnessed a growth of 5.1 per cent in December 2022. "India's Index of Industrial Production grows by 3.8% in December 2023," an official statement said. The data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) showed that the manufacturing sector's output grew 3.9% in December 2023, up from 3.6% in the year-ago month. In December last year, the mining production rose 5.1% and power output increased 1.2%. IIP grew 6.1% during the April-December 2023 period compared to a 5.5% expansion in the year-ago period. “Growth has been pulled down by electricity growth which was just 1.2% reflecting lower levels of demand. Eleven of the 23 manufacturing categories witnessed negative growth with the significant one again being electronic items. Textiles too continue to be in the negative zone due to lower export demand,” says Sabnavis. (With inputs from PTI)

Retail inflation eases to 3-month low of 5.1% in January, IIP grows 3.8% in December

<ul><li>The Monetary Policy Committee (<keyword id="19918491" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mpc" source="keywords">MPC</keyword>) has decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%. </li><li>Economists had expected the MPC to keep key rates unchanged due elevated inflation in December 2023.</li><li>A few experts hoped that it would change its stance to ‘neutral’ given the tight liquidity situation. </li></ul> The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>)’s rate setting panel – the Monetary Policy Committee – decided to keep its key lending rate (repo rate) unchanged at 6.5% on Thursday. It also decided to remain focussed on the ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ stance. RBI Governor <keyword id="19913110" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="shaktikanta-das" source="keywords">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> said that both the decisions have been taken with five out of six members voting in favour. Governor Das said there was further room for transmission. “Taking into account this growth-inflation dynamics and the fact that transmission of the cumulative 250 bps policy rate hike is still underway, the MPC decided to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 6.50%. The MPC will carefully monitor any signs of generalisation of food price pressures which can fritter away the gains in easing of core inflation,” he said. The MPC also raised the FY24 real GDP growth projection to 7.3% from 7%. It also set FY25’s real GDP growth projections at 7%. “The momentum in economic activity seen in FY24 is expected to continue in FY25 as well,” Das said. It also projected FY25’s Q1 GDP growth at 7.2%, Q2 to see 6.8% growth, Q3 at 7% and Q4 at 6.9%. The MPC also retained FY24’s retail inflation projections at 5.4%, but set FY25’s inflation projections at 4.5%. It sees inflation for Q1 of FY25 at 5%, Q2 at 4%, Q3 at 4.6% and Q4 at 4.7%. “Monetary policy was supported by pro-active supply-side measures by the government. That said, the job is not yet finished, and we need to be vigilant about new supply shocks that may undo the progress made so far,” Das said. Das said that elevated levels of public debt was raising serious concerns in many economies including advanced economies. “On one hand, the odds of soft landing in the global economy increased. But the other hand, wars and conflicts add uncertainties to the outlook,” the governor said. Experts have been expecting the monetary policy committee (MPC) to keep its key rates unchanged. India’s retail inflation for December 2023 came in at 5.7%, which is much higher than RBI’s comfort level of 4%. “We expect the RBI to continue the pause stance in the upcoming policy. Strong US non-farm payroll data and wages seem to have pushed back on market expectations for a quick pivot to rate cuts. First rate cut on table from June or August 2024 looks the best bet now,” said a report by SBI Ecowrap. Ajit Kabi, research analyst at LKP Securities said that the RBI is likely to support economic growth with a cautious stance on inflation. “Consequently, we expect the unchanged policy rate and possibility of a shift in stance to NEUTRAL. Additionally, RBI may take steps to improve liquidity conditions. We expect a policy rate cut by June 24,” he added. There has been a pressure of liquidity which made a few experts hope that it could change its stance from ‘withdrawal of accommodation’. “There is a strong case for the RBI to change its stance from ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ to ‘neutral’. Financial conditions have tightened a lot in the last few quarters. Real rates are reasonably high and likely to increase further as inflation is trending down,” said Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager- Fixed Income, Quantum AMC. While growth in deposits is much higher than last year on YTD basis as of January 12, the increase in credit and investments at ₹22.25 lakh crore is higher than that of deposits at ₹18.2 lakh crore. In terms of growth rates on a year-to-date basis, says Bank of Baroda data. Liquidity condition has also tightened with banking system liquidity running in deficit of over ₹2 lakh crore on daily basis. “Under these conditions there is some part of the market segment that believes that a change in stance is possible, though we believe that this will not be the case. The fact that the corridor of call rates is being maintained at between repo and Marginal Standing Facility (MSF0 rate, is indicative of the fact that the withdrawal of liquidity position would continue,” said <keyword id="20102121" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="madan-sabnavis" source="keywords">Madan Sabnavis</keyword>, chief economist at Bank of Baroda.

RBI hikes GDP growth projection for FY24 to 7.3%, keeps rates, stance unchanged

<ul><li>Market is hoping that the government will continue with its push for schemes like Atmanirbhar Bharat, Make in India, and the PLI.</li><li>Capex spending is not expected to be as high as FY24 but is expected to be in the range of 10-20% higher than the year before.</li><li>Along with infra push, rural economy driven schemes are expected to receive allocations as it has been under the cloud of a weak monsoon. </li></ul>Union finance minister <keyword id="19916618" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nirmala-sitharaman" source="keywords">Nirmala Sitharaman</keyword> set the stage for low expectations from the upcoming Interim Budget, insisting that there would be no spectacular announcement. The interim budget allows the incumbent government to undertake expenditures till a new government is formed after general elections. The stock markets too have not been expecting much from it either. After BJP’s wins during state elections drove a rally, they hope the government will keep pushing along the path of fiscal consolidation. Investors expect the government will provide impetus to key policy reforms such as Atmanirbhar Bharat, Make in India, and the PLI scheme in FY25. “The impact of the Union Budget on the equity market has reduced notably over the past few years, with the government undertaking most of the reforms outside the purview of the Budget. Nonetheless, the market participants continue to view it as a critical catalyst stimulating the growth of the Indian economy and, thereby, the Indian market,” said <keyword id="20204942" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="pranav-haridasan" source="keywords">Pranav Haridasan</keyword>, MD and CEO, Axis Securities. The Big Question of public capex The Indian government’s capex push in FY24 has aided large-scale infrastructure growth. This helped mid and small cap companies gain ground as private capex is still elusive. Any announcements on this side could be market movers. “Major public capex is unlikely since the FM has to achieve the fiscal deficit target of 5.9% for FY24 targeted in the 2023 budget. Also the massive public expenditure done through the budget provision last year has helped in triggering growth in the Indian economy. Therefore, the government’s priority would be to achieve fiscal discipline,” opines Dr V K Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services. While the FY24 Union Budget saw a 35% rise in capex spending, this time the market hopes it to be anywhere around 10-20%. Its focus is likely to continue to be on infrastructure like roads, water, metro, railways, defense, digital infrastructure, and green technologies. All which will drive investment-driven growth. Driving the rural economy A few experts also believe that the government might give the rural economy a much needed push as it’s not fully recovered from the pandemic. Particularly because buoyant tax collections have kept India’s fiscal situation of FY24 in a good stead. “We expect the government to stick to its path of fiscal consolidation, without compromising on quality of expenditure. In the wake of weaker monsoon and pressure seen in Rabi sowing season, focus will be on providing support to rural growth. Important schemes such as PM-KISAN, MGNAREGA, Housing for all, free food grains, will continue to hold significant importance,” said <keyword id="20368299" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sonal-badhan" source="keywords">Sonal Badhan</keyword>, economist at Bank of Baroda. If the rural economy gets a boost, it will be a positive for FMCG majors like HUL, Marico, Dabur whose volume growth has been sluggish for the last few quarters. It will also aid as well as <keyword id="19983534" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="hero-motocorp" source="keywords">Hero Motocorp</keyword>, M&amp;M, while continued infra push can be good news for L&amp;T, RVNL, IVRCL, Tata Power and more. Market experts also believe that if the government tightens its belts, and chugs along the path of fiscal discipline, it spells good news for global investors. Marzban Irani, CIO, Fixed Income at LIC Mutual Fund Asset Management worries that popular measures ahead of the elections may play spoilsport. "Normally, we do not expect any path breaking policy announcements in an interim budget. But there is always scope for unconventional moves. In my view, the Centre should try to adhere to the fiscal deficit target as it gives a clear signal to global investors,” Irani added.

You Searched For "Bank of Baroda" and got 11 results

Budget size almost unchanged from interim, shows govt's commitment to fiscal prudence: Experts

PTI

India’s corporates in ‘wait and watch’ mode as consumption loans zoom

Katya Naidu

Core sector growth slows to 4.3% in May, experts call it high base effect

BI India Bureau

RBI's Monetary Policy Committee meeting starts amid expectations of lower rate hike

PTI

Bank of Baroda expects 25-35 basis points rate hike from Dec 5-7 RBI policy meet

ANI

E-commerce sales likely to drive credit card spends in September even as active cards decline

Rounak Jain

HDFC raises lending rates on housing loans by 5 basis points

IANS

RBI likely to maintain status quo after food inflation keeps Feb print high, say experts

Katya Naidu

Retail inflation eases to 3-month low of 5.1% in January, IIP grows 3.8% in December

BI India Bureau

RBI hikes GDP growth projection for FY24 to 7.3%, keeps rates, stance unchanged

Katya Naidu

Interim Budget 2024: Markets don’t expect big bang measures but hope infra & rural push to continue

Katya Naidu

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