<img class="gwt-Image" src="/photo/54545666.cms" /><br />
<br /> Pakistan is worried as India’s decided to review decades old <keyword id="146625" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indus-water">Indus Water</keyword> treaty. In a counterattack, the nuclear-armed neighbor has threatened to petition the <keyword id="70191" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="International-Court-of-Justice">International Court of Justice</keyword>.<br />
<br /> Pakistan Prime Minister <keyword id="6576" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nawaz-Sharif">Nawaz Sharif</keyword>’s Adviser on Foreign Affairs, <keyword id="1679706" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Sartaj-Aziz">Sartaj Aziz</keyword>, said if India violates the treaty, Pakistan will approach the International Court of Justice.<br />
<br /> "According to international law India can't unilaterally separate itself from the treaty," said Sartaj Aziz, according to reports, adding, “The treaty (Indus Waters Treaty) was not suspended even during the <keyword id="6376114" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Kargil">Kargil</keyword> and the Siachen wars.”<br />
<br /> India is mulling to suspend the meeting regarding the <keyword id="162840" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indus-Water-Commission">Indus Water Commission</keyword>.<br />
<br /> "Blood and water cannot flow simultaneously," Prime Minister <keyword id="6354477" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Narendra-Modi">Narendra Modi</keyword> told a meeting to review the Indus Waters Treaty.<br /> The meeting was held to discuss ways to make Pakistan pay for the terrorist attack on the <keyword id="71431" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Uri">Uri</keyword> attack. It was also decided to increase the retaliation against the country.<br />
<br />
As sources said, India could even consider walking out of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) if Pakistan does not rein in terrorists, adding that the water-sharing pact is not sacrosanct.<br />
(image:indiatimes)

India’s review of Indus Water treaty has made Pakistan nervous

<img class="gwt-Image" src="/photo/48757790.cms" />If <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=NSA+level+talks">NSA-level talks between India and Pakistan</a> would have been a success, New Delhi would have showed Islamabad that the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/Captured-terrorist-says-Its-fun-doing-this-Udhampur-terror-attack/articleshow/48362757.cms">captured terrorist Mohammad Naveed</a> is a Pakistan national, which the country has been denying.<br />
 <br />
A 39-page dossier, containing details of Naveed, were to be handed over by <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=ajit+doval">National Security Adviser Ajit Doval</a> to his <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/DawoodIbrahims-wife-let-slip-the-secret-of-the-worlds-most-wanted-terroristswhereabouts/articleshow/48621680.cms">Pakistani counterpart Sartaj Aziz</a> during the NSA-level talks that was called off.<br />
 <br />
The dossier reads that Naveed was trained under three different terror training camps  in 2011 and 2012 and was trained by 17 Pakistanis. The camps are in Halen Det Mosque in Forward Kathua, PoK from where Naveed was launched into India along with three other terrorists on May 27.<br />
 <br />
The dossier mentions a mobile number of Zong service provider used by Naveed in Pakistan and now the Indian government has also sought US help to get call detail records.<br />
 <br />
Pakistan claimed that Naveed was not in their national database but India says an identity card was issued to him by the National Database and Registration Authority of Pakistan in 2014.<br />
 <br />
The dossier contains phone numbers of his parents and three siblings.<br />
 <br />
The Indian agencies also hacked the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=facebook">Facebook</a> account of Naveed's cousin Taheer to get photographs of some of his family members and the details will be shared with Pakistan through a Letter Rogatory.<br />
 <br />
The 24 pages of the dossier consist of photographs and Google maps locations of Naveed's residence, his relatives’ houses and the 3 terror camps in Pakistan till May 2015. Naveed has identified the locations.<br />
 <br />
India has also named one 40-year-old Maulvi Bashir of Jamil Park in Ghulam Mohammad Abad who motivated Naveed to join LeT.<br />
<br />
(Image: Indiatimes)<br />
 <br />


India’s done all its homework and has proved that the captured terrorist Mohammad Naveed is a Pakistani. Will Islamabad deny this too?

<img class="gwt-Image" src="/photo/48680002.cms" />When US Assistant Secretary of State Nisha D Biswal will come to India to prepare for maiden <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/Boost-to-Indo-US-ties-India-to-apply-US-technology-to-manufacture-aircraft-carrier/articleshow/48113956.cms">Indo-US</a> Strategic Commercial Dialogue, both the countries will discuss more than the set agenda.<br />
<br />
India will apprise the visiting dignitary about the failed <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=India+Pakistan+talks">National Security Advisor-level talks with Pakistan</a>.<br />
<br />
Pakistan pulled out of the NSA-level talks after India insisted the agenda should be limited to terror and barred <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=sartaj+aziz">Sartaj Aziz</a> from meeting Hurriyat leaders.<br />
<br />
US showed disappointment over the botched up talks and hoped that India and Pakistan would resume a formal dialogue soon.<br />
<br />
New Delhi will point out to the US on how the Pakistani military establishment raised the anti-India rhetoric within a few days of Ufa and tried to instigate India through statements and incidents, including the attack in Udhampur that resulted in the capture of <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/Captured-terrorist-says-Its-fun-doing-this-Udhampur-terror-attack/articleshow/48362757.cms">militant Mohammed Naved</a>.<br />
<br /> Officials said it was evident from the beginning that <keyword id="37837" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="100" keywordseo="Pakistan-army">Pakistan army</keyword> would not allow the NSA-level talks. “After the arrest of Naved it was difficult for them to come for talks. In any case, non-inclusion of the K-word in the Ufa statement was seen as some kind of embarrassment for Pak Army," a senior official said. <br />
<br />
(Image: Thinkstock)<br />


India will complain about Pakistan to big daddy US over failed NSA-level talks

<img class="gwt-Image" src="/photo/48621757.cms" /><br /> Mehjabeen Shaikh, Dawood Ibrahim's wife, inadvertantly let slip to an Indian TV channel that the gangster was indeed living in <keyword id="6587" type="COMPANY" weightage="100" keywordseo="karachi">Karachi</keyword>, peacefully though the Pakistani government had repeatedly denied reports of sheltering him <br /><br />

	This is the conversation that the Times Now channel played out.
<br /><br />

	"Am I speaking to Mehjabeen Sheikh?" the reporter asked.
<br /><br />

	"Yes", the woman confirmed.
<br /><br />

	"Are you talking from Karachi?"
<br /><br />

	"Yes".
<br /><br />

	"Can I speak to Dawood?"
<br /><br />

	"He's sleeping," Shaikh said before hanging up.
<br /><br />

	By the time a second reporter called the number, another woman who answered the phone was cautious and asked her to call back later without confirming if it was the residence of Dawood.
<br /><br />

	Pakistan has repeatedly denied that it has sheltered the underworld don, wanted in India for orchestrating the 1993 bomb blasts that killed 257 people in Mumbai. Even in May this year, Pakistan High Commissioner, Abdul Basit, said the dreaded gangster "was not in Pakistan", when Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh told Parliament that India knew about Dawood's whereabouts.
<br /><br />

	Times Now reported that according to details of bills available with Indian security agencies, the phone was installed in 2006.
<br /><br />

	An exclusive report in the Hindustan Times today exposed several discrepancies in the Pakistani narrative.
<br /><br />

	The HT report, quoting intelligence inputs, stated that Dawood, his wife Mehjabeen Shaikh, son Moeen Nawaz and daughters Mahrukh, Mehreen and Mazia are living in the upscale Clifton neighborhood of Pakistan's Karachi. Dawood's daughter Mahrukh is married to Junaid, son of former Pakistan cricket captain Javed Miandad.
<br /><br />

	Indian intelligence agencies have an April 2015 telephone bill in the name of Dawood's wife Mehjabeen with D-13, Block-4, Karachi Development Authority, Sch-5, Clifton, as the address, according to the report. Dawood has three Pakistani passports and two more residential addresses in Karachi.
<br /><br />

	Dawood's family members have travelled to Dubai in January this year. According to the image that HT published of Dawood's Pakistani passport photo, the 59-year-old crime syndicate chief is now cleanshaven, has a receding hairline and has not had plastic surgery done on his face.
<br /><br />

	Sleuths also have his passport numbers, flight and passenger details.
<br /><br />

	"Pakistan's Dawood lie is also nailed from the fact that the mafia don's close associates like Jabir Saddiq, Jawaid Chotani and Mumbai blasts accused Javed Patel a.k.a Chikna are also based in Pakistan and are frequent visitors to Dubai. There are flight details to show that Saddiq travelled to Dubai from Karachi on July 20, 2015 and returned four days later," Shishir Gupta wrote in the report for HT.
<br /><br /> Now, if they meet on Monday, Indian <keyword id="43858" type="POSITION" weightage="100" keywordseo="National-Security-Advisor">National Security Advisor</keyword> <keyword id="115253" type="PERSON" weightage="100" keywordseo="Ajit-Doval">Ajit Doval</keyword> will confront his counterpart <keyword id="1679706" type="PERSON" weightage="100" keywordseo="Sartaj-Aziz">Sartaj Aziz</keyword> with the documentary evidence, the report said. <br />
	<br />
	(Image credits: Indiatimes)


Dawood
Ibrahim’s wife let slip the secret of the world’s most wanted terrorist’s
whereabouts

<img class="gwt-Image" src="/photo/48014747.cms" />Indian <keyword id="6354814" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="prime-minister-Narendra-Modi">Prime Minister Narendra Modi</keyword> met his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif in Ufa, on the sidelines of the <keyword id="157954" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="100" keywordseo="Shanghai-Cooperation-Organisation">Shanghai Cooperation Organisation</keyword> (SCO) Summit.<br />
The two premiers shook hands before sitting down for delegation-level talks.<br />
 <br />
Reportedly, Indian delegation included National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar while Sartaj Aziz, Sharif's advisor on foreign affairs and national security, was in the Pakistani delegation.<br />
 <br />
The previous night, Modi and Sharif had exchanged pleasantries and chatted briefly at the dinner hosted by Russian President Vladimir Putin for leaders of five BRICS nations and 10 SCO nations in Ufa.<br />
 <br />
It is expected that Modi and Sharif will discuss the status of the bilateral ties and the future direction.<br />
 <br />
However, Indian government sources told Economic Times that Modi-Sharif talks need not be construed a prelude to a resumption of the dialogue process between the two countries.<br />
 <br />
Pakistan foreign office spokesperson Qazi Khalilullah said that it has always been (Pakistan) Prime Minister's policy to seek cordial and cooperative ties with all neighbouring countries including India. “It was in the pursuit of this objective that the prime minister would be meeting the Indian prime minister for a comprehensive exchange on all issues of common interest,” he had said.<br />
 <br />
Meanwhile, sources indicated ET that Modi will strongly raise India's concerns on militancy with Pakistan and that all outstanding issues including inaction against Hafiz Saeed and 26/11 mastermind Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi.<br />
 <br />
Modi and Sharif had met in Kathmandu last year for the SAARC Summit but they did not have a bilateral meeting over acrimony between the two countries at that time.<br />


Modi, Sharif meet, chit-chat on the sidelines of SCO Summit in Ufa

<img class="gwt-Image" src="/photo/48671870.cms" /><br />
Former Union home secretary RK Singh’s disclosure about aborting the plan to take out fugitive underworld don and mastermind of Mumbai serial blasts <span><a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/DawoodIbrahim-his-Money-and-Lifestyle/articleshow/48655004.cms">Dawood Ibrahim</a></span> throws fresh spotlight on <span><a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/The-Indian-Govt-has-no-clue-about-Dawood-its-most-wanted-criminals-whereabouts/articleshow/47162037.cms">Dawood's links with sections of Mumbai cops</a></span>.
<br /><br /> Singh said the plan, prepared by national security advisor A K Doval when he headed the <keyword id="6364687" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="100" keywordseo="Intelligence-Bureau">Intelligence Bureau</keyword> under the Vajpayee government, involved using members of the rival underworld gang led by <keyword id="6398539" type="PERSON" weightage="100" keywordseo="Chhota-Rajan">Chhota Rajan</keyword> to target Dawood when he was set to travel to Dubai for the wedding of his daughter in 2005. However, the plot was disrupted by a posse of Mumbai cops who mysteriously emerged in Delhi to arrest Rajan's accomplice <keyword id="208531" type="PERSON" weightage="100" keywordseo="Vicky-Malhotra">Vicky Malhotra</keyword> and <keyword id="328738" type="PERSON" weightage="100" keywordseo="Fareed-Tanasha">Fareed Tanasha</keyword>. <br /><br />

	Malhotra and Tanasha had travelled to Delhi to work out details of the plan.
<br /><br />

	It has rekindled suspicions about the manner in which Mumbai cops landed in New Delhi to enlist the help of Delhi Police ostensibly to execute arrest warrants pending against members of Chhota Rajan gang. 
<br /><br />

	The claim is significant also because of the timing: it comes at a time when evidence has emerged that Doval's interest in the leader of the notorious crime syndicate may not have waned even after a decade he spent outside the government following his superannuation. 
<br /><br />

	Last week, Indian agencies responded to <span><a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/Pakistan-does-it-again-Questions-veracity-of-Indias-dossiers-on-Dawood/articleshow/47187565.cms">claims of Pakistani officials</a> </span>here that they had got dossiers showing complicity of Indian agencies in Baluchistan insurgency by releasing a fresh photograph of the ageing don. So far, Indian agencies have used an old photograph - one which was taken in 1993 - in all the dossiers submitted to Pakistan to claim that the fugitive was being sheltered by the hostile neighbour, and to demand his return. The image of the ageing don with a receding hairline showed that Indian agencies have been tracking him with considerable success. 
<br /><br />

	The dossier which Doval had planned to submit to his Pakistani counterpart Sartaj Aziz had the latter not cried off from his engagement in Delhi, included the will that Dawood has prepared, bequeathing his property to his wife <span><a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/DawoodIbrahims-wife-let-slip-the-secret-of-the-worlds-most-wanted-terroristswhereabouts/articleshow/48621680.cms">Mehzabeen</a></span>, as well as the precise coordinates of the house Dawood bought next to a hospital in <keyword id="6587" type="COMPANY" weightage="100" keywordseo="karachi">Karachi</keyword>. <br /><br /> Dawood's infiltration of <keyword id="36730" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="100" keywordseo="Mumbai-Police">Mumbai Police</keyword> has been part of the lore that has developed around him. A few years ago, <keyword id="6409883" type="PERSON" weightage="100" keywordseo="wikileaks">Wikileaks</keyword> disclosed that a senior inspector with Mumbai Police had to be cashiered because of his links with the don. <br />
	<br />
	(Image credits: Indiatimes)


Former Union Secretary RK Singh’s
disclosure reveals Dawood Ibrahim’s links with Mumbai cops

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5529b41b69beddbb2fd9a3c6-1200-800/rtr4wjjl.jpg" border="0" alt="Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif"><p class="source"><span>Reuters</span></p><p class="caption">Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif speaks at a news conference with Advisor to Pakistan's Prime Minister on National Security and Foreign Affairs Sartaj Aziz at the Foreign Ministry in Islamabad April 8, 2015.</p></img></div><p></p></div></div>A comprehensive nuclear deal with Iran <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/iran-nuclear-talks-deadline-extended-july-9-2015-7" target="_blank">could be just days away</a>.</p><p>The US and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany (the so-called P5+1) are set to work past a July 9 deadline during negotiations in Vienna, after working through an original deadline of June 30th. And though an anonymous source "close to the talks" has suggested that <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/iran-nuclear-talks-source-either-it-happens-in-the-next-48-hours-or-not-2015-7">the P5+1 has only 48 hours to finalize a deal</a>, it's unlikely that an agreement isn't closed in the near-term.</p><p>The talks have just benefitted Iran far too much up to this point. And the past few days have provided crucial evidence that Iran's negotiators understand just how dominant of a position they're in.</p><h2><strong>Arms embargo now part of talks...</strong></h2><p>On Monday, Iran <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-says-nuclear-deal-must-include-lifting-of-u-n-arms-embargo-1436191080">reportedly demanded that the United Nations lift its arms embargo</a> on the country during the talks. This was a canny move on Tehran's part: Russia, a member of the P5+1, is currently under US and EU sanctions over its annexation of Crimea and subsequent invasion of eastern Ukraine.</p><p>Russia's also t<a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-31901493">he world's second-largest arms exporter</a>. An end to the embargo directly benefits a P5+1 state eager for a newly enriched and highly militarized weapons buyer, which is why Russia is keen on lifting the embargo as well. Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov <a href="http://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/Russia-says-arms-embargo-is-main-problem-in-Iran-talks-Interfax-408241">now says</a> that the embargo is the "only ... big problem" remaining in the talks.</p><p>More importantly, Iran has seen the P5+1's negotiating position erode on a number of core issues, including the the right to enrich uranium, the operation of the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-us-may-let-iran-run-6000-uranium-centrifuges-in-a-fortified-bunker-2015-3">once-secret and heavily fortified Fordow enrichment facility</a>, and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/john-kerry-on-irans-nuclear-disclosure-2015-6">Iranian disclosure of its past nuclear-weaponization activities</a>. Even during the joint-plan-of-action agreement, Iran was <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/05/15/iran-oil-idUKL6N0O13FJ20140515">allowed to flout the agreement's oil-export caps</a> without punishment. And in April, President Barack Obama admitted that Iran <a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/04/08/398224636/obamas-remarks-on-nuclear-deal-provides-fuel-for-critics">would have the option of constructing a nuclear weapon on a very short timescale</a> after the deal's most onerous uranium-enrichment standards expire in 10-15 years.</p><p>Given Russia's economic interests and the P5+1's negotiating track record, Iran would almost be negligent in not attempting to extract additional big-ticket concessions. At this point, it makes little practical sense for the regime to simply pocket its existing accomplishments, as formidable as they've been.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/55798439ecad04da0c49d054-840-806/screen shot 2015-06-11 at 8.47.42 am copy.png" border="0" alt="Screen Shot 2015 06 11 at 8.47.42 AM copy"><p class="source"><span><a href="https://csis.org/files/publication/ts150610_cordesman.pdf">Center for Stratigic International Studies / Steven A. Hildreth</a></span></p><p class="caption">Estimated Range of Iranian Long-Range Missile Forces</p></img></div><p></p></div></div></p><h2><strong><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">...And ballistic missiles, too</span></strong></h2><p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">Just as audaciously on Monday, Iran </span><a href="http://www.rferl.org/content/iran-nuclear-talks-demands-lift-un-missile-sanctions-arms-embargo/27113650.html">demanded the lifting of sanctions</a><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"> and other <keyword id="6356001" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="international">international</keyword> restrictions related to the country's ballistic-missile construction.</span></p><p><a href="http://thebulletin.org/leave-iran%E2%80%99s-missiles-out-nuclear-talks">Some experts have argued</a> that the inclusion of ballistic missiles in the nuclear talks would only distract from the P5+1 objective of closing off Iran's pathways to an actual bomb. After all, Iran's long-range strategic missiles would be considerably less threatening under a deal that decisively blocked Iran's opportunities to go nuclear.</p><p>But the ballistic missiles are directly related to the issue. As Michael Eisenstadt of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/irans-ballistic-missile-program-is-the-most-important-part-of-the-countrys-nuclear-program-that-nobody-is-talking-about-2015-7">wrote on Tuesday</a>, Iran has fitted some of its Shahab missiles with payload chambers resembling those used on nuclear-capable missiles as recently as 2004. It has also reverse engineered its own version of the Kh-55, which was the Soviet air force's primary nuclear-armed cruise missile.</p><p>Although Iranian negotiators <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-says-nuclear-deal-must-include-lifting-of-u-n-arms-embargo-1436191080">reportedly insisted</a> they weren't connecting ballistic missiles and the arms embargo to the nuclear talks specifically, the fact that these demands were raised in the context of the talks - complicating the negotiations just days before a crucial negotiating deadline - suggests that Tehran is expecting an overall re-orientation of the international community's stance toward the country in a post-deal environment. The Iranian regime is already looking forward to having far greater international prestige and freedom of action once the nuclear issue is resolved.</p><h2><strong>The effect on oil</strong></h2><p>They have every reason to believe this will be the case. A nuclear deal won't just leave Iran with a developed and internationally recognized nuclear program, the ability to build a nuclear weapon within <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/iran-deal-breakout-time-nuclear-weapon-2015-6">as little as eight months</a>, and perhaps the most sophisticated ballistic-missile arsenal of any non-nuclear weapons state. Tehran also believes a deal will burst open the country's oil-export economy.</p><p>According to a Citibank research note from June 30, the bank "expects <span style="line-height: 1.5em;">that the Iranian government will, for demonstration effects, pump as much as is humanly possible, spiking or surging production through an aggressive ramp-up" of oil production once export restrictions are removed.</span></p><p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"> The bank does not believe Iran can reach its oil ministry's stated target of increasing output by 1 million barrels a day within seven months of sanctions being lifted. But it does think that a post-deal Iranian ramp-up could increase Iranian production by around 600,000 barrels a day within six months of the end of sanctions, bringing Iran's daily oil production to around 4.2 million barrels a day. Citibank believes oil experts could "ramp up considerably" toward the end of the first quarter of 2016.</span></p><p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">A Barclays research note on Thursday similarly predicted that Iran will increase its production and its export capacity by 1 million barrels by the end of 2016, assuming a deal is signed (see chart).</span></p><p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_left"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/559c340beab8ea233c09635b-459-244/screen shot 2015-07-07 at 2.24.57 pm.png" border="0" alt="Iran oil price graph"><p class="source"><span>Barclays</span></p></img></div><p></p></div></div><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">The US is eager for an agreement, and the regime reasonably envisions a future where the country is a mainstream member of the international community - and an economic powerhouse, to boot.</span></span></p><p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">Iran is naturally trying to press its advantage as the talks come down to the wire. It'\s negotiators understand that the country is in a favorable position, so long as it signs a deal. </span></p><p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">The one remaining question is whether Iran's supreme leader, the central pillar of a regime with a deep ideological animus toward the US, will allow that to happen.</span></p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/prevent-blisters-jogging-running-shoes-sneakers-athletic-shoelace-hole-2015-5">Someone figured out the purpose of the extra shoelace hole on your running shoes - and it will blow your mind</a></h3>        <div>            <div>    <script src="http://player.ooyala.com/v3/6e12e8b3387a44daacfb73afba25a76e"></script>    <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="lyNnMwdToPHeoBdqEnriXIBVrqyIR6er" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>    <script>    if (typeof RunFunctions === 'undefined') { var RunFunctions = []; }     RunFunctions.push(function()    {         var ooyalapopvideo = OO.Player.create('ooyalaplayer_popvideo', 'lyNnMwdToPHeoBdqEnriXIBVrqyIR6er',{ autoplay: 'false' });     });    </script>    <noscript><div>Please enable Javascript to watch this video</div></noscript></div>        </div>        <script>(function() { function createPlayer() { OO.ready(function() { RunFunctions.forEach(function(ooyalaFunction) { ooyalaFunction(); }); RunFunctions = [];}); } createPlayer(); }()); </script>    </div>

Iran is winning - and they know it

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/557b0c73ecad042a4ebbd4c7-1200-706/united states us iran nuclear negotiations.jpg" border="0" alt="United States US Iran Nuclear Negotiations"><p class="source"><span>REUTERS/Heinz-Peter Bader</span></p><p class="caption">Negotiators of Iran and six world powers face each other at a table in the historic basement of Palais Coburg hotel in Vienna April 24, 2015.</p></img></div><p></p></div></div>A US-led group of countries and Iran may be just days away from a landmark deal on Iran's nuclear program.</p><p>After a marathon negotiating session in Vienna, the sides have <a href="http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/reuters/iran-nuclear-deal-close--impasse-over-weapons--missiles-persists/41539124">drawn up a document with five annexes, according to Reuters</a>.</p><p>Russian officials said on Thursday that they <a href="http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/US-remains-quiet-as-Russia-and-Iran-seek-to-close-nuclear-deal-in-hours-408509">expected to complete a deal within "hours."</a> Reuters reports that the text of the deal is 96% complete.</p><p>A deal would have to be signed by 11:59 p.m. ET on Thursday in order to avoid handing Congress a 60-day review period for a potential deal. Al Monitor reported that the US negotiating team is willing to go past that deadline so as to deny the Iranians the opportunity to use the congressional deadline as negotiating leverage. </p><p>Even so, that would mean exceeding yet another benchmark for a nuclear deal, raising doubts as to just how close the sides really are. In a statement on Thursday, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/iranian-nuclear-talks-update-2015-7" target="_blank">Secretary of State John Kerry said</a> that the US and its partners were "<span style="line-height: 1.5em;">not going to sit at the negotiating table forever." He then announced that negotiations would continue for an indeterminate amount of time.</span></p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/559edb86eab8ea406f35bd10-1200-858/rtx1jrvj.jpg" border="0" alt="john kerry"><p class="source"><span>REUTERS/Carlos Barria</span></p><p class="caption">U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry delivers a statement on the Iran talks in Vienna, Austria, July 9, 2015.</p></img></div><p></p></div></div>Observers believe that Iran and the US will probably reach a deal in Vienna. But <a href="http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/reuters/iran-nuclear-deal-close--impasse-over-weapons--missiles-persists/41539124">per Reuters</a>, there are still a few issues left to resolve.</p><p>And if they're skipped over or dealt with through inexact language for the sake of reaching a final agreement, any one of them could end up being spoilers as the deal progresses. In an extreme scenario, they could each be enough to block a deal on their own.</p><p>Here's what's reportedly still left to negotiate.</p><h2><strong>The arms embargo.</strong></h2><p>The UN Security Council <a href="http://www.sipri.org/databases/embargoes/un_arms_embargoes/iran">imposed a conventional arms embargo</a> on Iran in 2006 and an arms-export embargo in 2007. China and Russia, members of the US-led group of nations negotiating in Vienna and major weapons exporters, both covet Iran as a potential customer and want the embargo lifted. Iran now groups the embargo as part of the sanctions related exclusively to the nuclear program, all of which Tehran believes must be lifted as part of a deal.</p><p>The US considers Iran to be <a href="http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2013/224826.htm">one of the world's leading state-sponsors of terrorism</a>. And the lifting of the embargo would allow Iran to acquire <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/why-russian-s-300-sale-to-iran-is-a-big-deal-2015-6">advanced aerial defenses</a> that could complicate a future strike on the country's nuclear facilities. The lifting of the embargo also appears to be a late-breaking Iranian demand, itself evidence that Iran <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/iran-knows-its-winning-nuclear-talks-2015-7">believes it is in a favorable negotiating position</a>.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/55798439ecad04da0c49d054-840-806/screen shot 2015-06-11 at 8.47.42 am copy.png" border="0" alt="Screen Shot 2015 06 11 at 8.47.42 AM copy"><p class="source"><span><a href="https://csis.org/files/publication/ts150610_cordesman.pdf">Center for Stratigic International Studies / Steven A. Hildreth</a></span></p><p class="caption">Estimated Range of Iranian Long-Range Missile Forces</p></img></div><p></p></div></div></p><h2><strong>Ballistic missile sanctions. </strong></h2><p>According to Al Jazeera, Iran also <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/07/missile-arms-embargo-dispute-holding-iran-deal-150706123827361.html">wants the lifting of sanctions</a> related to its ballistic-missile program. Iran has <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/irans-ballistic-missile-program-is-the-most-important-part-of-the-countrys-nuclear-program-that-nobody-is-talking-about-2015-7">one of the most advanced ballistic-missile arsenals</a> of any country in the world, and perhaps the most developed stockpile of any non-nuclear weapons state.</p><p>Long-range missiles are primarily used as delivery systems for strategic weapons. Since Iran's potential atomic weapons launchers were deliberately left out of the nuclear negotiations, the US may be queasy with Iranian attempts to use the talks to gain <keyword id="6356001" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="international">international</keyword> approval for their ballistic arsenal.</p><h2><strong>Finalizing the terms of inspector access to military sites. </strong></h2><p>Iran reportedly <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-nuclear-talks-military-sites-access-enrichment-vienna/">wants to severely limit</a> International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors' access to military sites. The US and its partners are pushing for "managed access," or a mechanism for raising concerns over individual military sites with the Iranians. "Managed access" and the standards for triggering possible inspections of military areas is another highly technical and contentious area of negotiation.</p><h2><strong style="line-height: 1.5em;">Possible issues regarding the sanctions timetable. </strong></h2><p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">The sides seem to agree that UN sanctions authorizations will be removed shortly after an agreement is signed and that all nuclear-related US sanctions will be removed once the International Atomic Energy Agency confirms that Iran is in compliance with the agreement. But this is a more elastic formulation than it might seem: What sanctions are nuclear-related, and who gets to decide? Will the US be allowed to impose any subsequent non-nuclear-related sanctions?</span></p><p><span style="line-height: 1.5em; font-size: 15px;">What are the technical standards for Iran being declared in "compliance" with the deal, and how long will the verification process likely take? Which US sanctions will be removed first, and on what kind of a timetable? Though Reuters reports that sanctions-related questions have </span><a href="http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/reuters/iran-nuclear-deal-close--impasse-over-weapons--missiles-persists/41539124">largely been settled,</a><span style="line-height: 1.5em; font-size: 15px;"> that also means Iran and the US don't have the same answers to all of them yet.</span></p><p><span style="line-height: 1.5em; font-size: 15px;"><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/556f573feab8ea2c037a7612-805-645/screen shot 2015-06-03 at 3.33.54 pm.png" border="0" alt="iran nuclear"><p class="source"><span>Reuters</span></p></img></div><p></p></div></div></span></p><h2><span style="line-height: 1.5em; font-size: 15px;"><strong style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">Uranium enrichment centrifuge research and development.</strong><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;"> </span></span></h2><p><span style="line-height: 1.5em; font-size: 15px;"><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">Most of the envisioned deal's uranium-enrichment limits expire after 10 years. If Iran is allowed to research and fabricate additional centrifuges during that 10 years, it could dramatically narrow the time needed to produce a nuclear weapon.</span></span></p><p>The possible questions surrounding R&amp;D are highly technical. Iran likely wants the ability to run uranium or some non-fissile placeholder element through an advanced research cascade. How that cascade could be configured, along with how, where, and whether Iran would be able to store inoperable advanced centrifuges, are all issues that a deal will have to address.</p><p>R&amp;D limits could be the difference between an enforceable deal - and one in which Iran spends a decade working towards rapid nuclear breakout.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5529b41b69beddbb2fd9a3c6-1200-800/rtr4wjjl.jpg" border="0" alt="Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif"><p class="source"><span>Reuters</span></p><p class="caption">Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif speaks at a news conference with Advisor to Pakistan's Prime Minister on National Security and Foreign Affairs Sartaj Aziz at the Foreign Ministry in Islamabad April 8, 2015.</p></img></div><p></p></div></div></p><h2><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"><strong>What's going to happen?</strong><br /></span></h2><p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">An agreement seems certain at this point, but far more important nuclear weapons-related negotiations have been scuttled over comparatively smaller matters.</span></p><p>In 1986, president Ronald Reagan and Soviet general secretary Mikhail Gorbachev nearly agreed to a 15-year timeline for eliminating their nuclear stockpile <a href="http://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/reykjavik-summit-legacy/">during a summit in Reykjavik, Iceland</a>. A deal was never finalized because of Gorbachev's demand that the US halt all work on the Strategic <keyword id="6354810" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="100" keywordseo="Defense">Defense</keyword> Initiative (SDI), a proposed space-based ballistic missile shield that was still early in development and that the US would never even build.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/54e4ba966bb3f75a745edc0d-1200-1000/rtr4pfbj.jpg" border="0" alt="U.S. President Ronald Reagan (R) shakes hands at his first meeting with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev to sign an arms treaty in Geneva,"><p class="source"><span>REUTERS/Denis Paquin/Files</span></p><p class="caption">Gorbachev (left) and Reagan</p></img></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>The Soviets worried that SDI was cover for an clandestine weapons program and that space-based weaponry would reignite the arms race; Reagan believed that SDI would make strategic nuclear weapons obsolete. The two sides' differing and irreconcilable perception of a hypothetical weapons system spoiled what would have been the most significant disarmament accord in history.</p><p>It's possible or even probable that nearly 20 months of negotiations over Iran's nuclear program will conclude in the coming days. But few people are in a position to know how these remaining issues are playing out, and how they're perceived by the various negotiating teams.</p><p>And Kerry has already threatened to walk away from talks: On Thursday, he told reporters that "<span>if the tough decision doesn't get made, we are absolutely prepared to call an end to this process."</span></p>

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