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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump's election victory is impacting Ukraine even before he takes office again in January.</li><li>Trump has criticized US aid to Ukraine and has suggested he'd strike a deal with Russia.</li></ul>President-elect Donald Trump's election win has prompted a flurry of reactions around the world that are already having an impact on the war in Ukraine.Trump, a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-says-us-is-giving-ukraine-too-much-money-renews-nato-criticism-2023-1">frequent critic of US aid to Ukraine</a>, won't take over the White House until January 20, 2025. But his imminent return has sparked a rush of aid to Ukraine, a greater emphasis on finding ways to end the war quickly, and new conversations between countries most engaged in the conflict.President Joe Biden, a strong supporter of Ukraine, has sought to rush additional aid to Ukraine before Trump takes office. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said last week that Biden "has committed to making sure that every dollar we have at our disposal will be pushed out the door" before that date in January.As Business Insider previously <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-win-clocking-ticking-on-ukraine-aid-2024-11">reported</a>, over $6 billion in US assistance to Ukraine remains from April's foreign aid package.Meanwhile, over the weekend Biden gave Ukraine permission to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-ukraine-russia-atacms-authorization-2024-11">use the long-range missiles it's supplied to strike inside Russia</a>, according to multiple reports.That restriction has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-officials-have-ukraine-fighting-russia-hand-tied-behind-back-2024-5">a major hindrance to Ukraine</a>, warfare experts said, preventing it from going after the source of Russian attacks and leaving it instead to have to try to stop each attack as it comes in.<div type="image" title="A missile is fired from a grassy beach against an overcast sky." height="2864" width="4584" msid="115420033" hostid="261" sizebytes="494906"></div>The new ability to strike targets inside Russia should boost Ukraine's battlefield effectiveness, but the long wait gave Russia plenty of time to prepare and to move its aircraft out of potential range.Meanwhile, world leaders have reacted to Trump's imminent return to office by renewing efforts to end the fighting, in ways that have been resisted in the past.Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan, who has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/turkeys-erdogan-power-player-ukraine-war-russia-climbdown-2022-11">positioned himself</a> as a power player in the conflict, will present a plan to freeze the war when meeting G20 leaders in Brazil on Monday, people familiar with the matter <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-17/ukraine-war-latest-allies-are-leaning-on-zelenskiy-for-a-way-to-end-the-war?embedded-checkout=true">told Bloomberg.</a>Erdoğan's plan involves Ukraine agreeing not to discuss joining NATO for 10 years, the sources said.Two European officials also told Bloomberg that there is increasing recognition in Europe that Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy will have to compromise with Russian President Vladimir Putin, because neither country has shown that it can comprehensively win on the battlefield.German Chancellor Olaf Scholz had a call with Putin on November 15, in what Reuters <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putins-views-ukraine-war-havent-changed-germanys-scholz-says-2024-11-17/">described</a> as their first direct communication in almost two years.A German government spokesperson said Scholz "urged Russia to be prepared to negotiate with Ukraine with the aim of achieving a just and lasting peace," Politico reported.<div type="image" title="German Chancellor Olaf Scholz addresses a joint press conference with Ireland's Prime Minister following talks at the Chancellery in Berlin on February 22, 2022. (Photo by John MACDOUGALL / POOL / AFP) (Photo by JOHN MACDOUGALL/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)" height="1331" width="2000" msid="115420034" hostid="261" sizebytes="172552"></div>According to the Associated Press, Putin <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/german-chancellor-scholz-spoke-to-putin-for-first-time-in-2-years-to-push-ukraine-peace-talks">said</a> that any peace deal must acknowledge the territory Russia has taken and Russian demands, like Ukraine not joining NATO.Zelenskyy <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/minska-3-ne-bude-nam-potriben-realnij-mir-zvernennya-prezide-94433">said</a> in his nightly address on Friday that this kind of communication is "exactly what Putin has wanted for a long time."He said Putin wants to "weaken his isolation" and said that "ordinary negotiations" would lead to nothing.Zelenskyy has previously said that he is open to ending the war through diplomatic means but <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-new-yorker-interview/volodymyr-zelensky-has-a-plan-for-ukraines-victory">warned</a> that Russia does not want to end the war on what he described as "any reasonable terms."Ukraine has repeatedly rejected the idea of giving up territory.(Trump has previously <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-soldiers-react-trump-election-win-war-russia-military-aid-2024-11">suggested that he would try to strike a deal that would involve giving up some Ukrainian territory</a>.)Even so, Zelenskyy has spoken more frequently on the possibility of a deal, suggesting he's under some pressure from Ukraine's allies.Zelenskyy told Ukrainian broadcaster Suspilne on Saturday that he believes Trump's reelection as president will mean the conflict ends "faster."He also said that Ukraine must do everything it can to end the war through diplomatic means, but that he doesn't believe Putin actually wants peace.<div type="image" title="Trump n Putin" height="820" width="1024" msid="115420032" hostid="261" sizebytes="31598"></div>Zelenskyy told Suspilne that for Ukraine to take part in negotiations, it must be able to remain "strong" and "not alone with Russia," per the Kyiv Independent's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://kyivindependent.com/we-must-do-everything-to-end-this-war-next-year-through-diplomatic-means-zelensky-speaks-on-negotiations-war/">translation</a>."I don't think Putin wants peace at all" he added. "But this does not mean that he does not want to sit down with one of the leaders."Zelenskyy said this would destroy the political isolation that has built around Putin since the start of the war. "And it benefits him to sit down, talk, and not reach an agreement," Zelenskyy said.Despite all this movement, Trump has not signaled his own plan as yet, and there is uncertainty over what he will ultimately decide to do regarding Ukraine.Many European nations have vowed to continue supporting Ukraine, though the job would be much tougher without the US' contributions.There is also some optimism in Ukraine, as well as among Ukraine's European allies and warfare experts, that the changes Trump brings in could be in Ukraine's interest, compared to the slow drip of aid that has happened under Biden.But, as The Wall Street Journal <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/trumps-push-for-ukraine-peace-finds-growing-acceptance-in-europe-8252f368">reports</a>, there are concerns that the Trump administration won't give Ukraine much of a say in what a peace deal could look like, and which of Russia's demands Trump might accept.What is clear, however, is that Trump's reelection is already having a strong impact on how countries are thinking about the war.

Trump's victory has already prompted a realignment on Ukraine

<ul class="summary-list"><li>I was a native New Yorker and thrived on the city's energy.</li><li>When I moved to London with my husband just almost two years ago it was a major culture shock.</li></ul>Growing up in the vibrant borough of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/queens-global-food-tour-new-york-most-diverse-borough-2023-11">Queens</a>, the relentless rhythm of the 7 train, the aromas of Indian cuisine, and the crowds at the MET stadium in Flushing were my normal.I thrived on the city's boundless energy. But in February 2023, I <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biggest-surprises-moving-to-london-according-to-american-2024-10">moved to London</a> with my British husband to start a new chapter.His career required him to return to his homeland, and I was excited to live abroad in a city I had long romanticized after watching movies like "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/living-in-notting-hill-london-reality-compared-to-expectation-photos-2022-6">Notting Hill</a>" and "The Holiday."Leaving behind the fast-paced lifestyle in New York has been exhilarating, but the transition was a challenge.<h2 id="2afd2595-3c66-4ae8-a427-3f0eb50c094a">The job hunt was a culture shock for me</h2>As a New York-qualified attorney, I was used to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/shocker-wall-streeters-are-juicing-to-be-better-at-their-jobs-2012-2">competitive job hunt</a> involving dozens of applications, multiple interviews, and aggressive salary negotiations.In London, the process is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/moved-uk-nigeria-job-market-competitive-rejections-2024-7">more formal and patient</a>.<div type="image" title="Pooja Shah in red dress with husband against a snowy background" height="500" width="666" msid="115301511" hostid="261" sizebytes="21494"></div>I had to get used to sitting tight and waiting to hear back, sometimes for weeks, instead of following up or receiving a response within days.I also had to complete many more tests and assignments during my London-based job search compared to interviews back home.<h2 id="8e58ec17-e87f-4869-a41d-212ee60d8468">The job termination policies here aren't my cup of tea</h2>In New York, I was an at-will employee, meaning my employer could <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-laid-off-rehired-quit-no-longer-respect-culture-changed-2024-11">terminate me at their discretion</a>. Or, I could leave with a two-week notice period.This meant that, in my profession, I could laterally move to other roles immediately or take a brief <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/quit-six-figure-job-solo-travel-career-break-no-regret-2024-10">vacation between jobs</a> without disrupting my career trajectory.In the UK, notice periods are a minimum of three months, which I found really frustrating.I'm <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-build-an-education-program-that-helps-retain-employees-2022-11">not looking to change roles</a>, but I worry that I will be overlooked for potential future jobs due to the lengthy notice period and a more laborious handover transition.<h2 id="4997bb13-d122-46c2-be94-b2eed27546ce">But London's work-life balance has been a huge relief</h2><div type="image" title="Pooja Shah with husband in red Indian wedding attire" height="3840" width="4976" msid="115301512" hostid="261" sizebytes="1571084"></div>My salary has been pretty comparable across both cities. But the attitude toward work is significantly different.In New York, I worked around the clock and sometimes on weekends. I'd log back online in the evenings after happy hours or social outings. I even had my phone during my wedding and honeymoon.At the beginning of my career, I was excited by this because I was constantly learning, but soon enough, I <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/burnout-work-boss-left-office-on-stretcher-2024-4">felt burnout</a> and couldn't sustain being available all the time.In London, there is a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/best-work-life-balance-advice-boss-lessons-job-2024-1">clear work-life balance</a>. I have not been contacted by an employer outside work hours, while on vacation, or on sick days.It's been a welcome relief from my days in New York when I always felt obligated to keep my work phone on.<h2 id="5dd76f89-4839-438a-b656-9830925b4d67">The cultural differences made finding friends a challenge</h2>When I was living in New York, I felt like people were more sociable and open to getting to know each other. It was <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-make-friends-at-work-2024-10">easy for me to connect</a> with someone I met at a bar or the library.However, my experience with the British is that they are more reserved and have a dryer sense of humor, which I don't always understand.There are also cultural references in TV, film, or politics, which I can't relate to because I didn't grow up here.<h2 id="929954d2-088b-4243-ba33-cb38e36f492a">But my new social circle has given me a whole new perspective</h2>Over time, my social circle has solidified, and I appreciate how different it is from back home.Given London's proximity to the Middle East and Asia, my new friends come from diverse backgrounds and offer unique perspectives on geopolitical and cultural issues that aren't talked about in my NYC friend circle.These friendships have exposed me to different mentalities, cities that are now on my bucket list, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/famous-foods-meals-to-eat-in-life-2019-8">new culinary dishes</a>.<h2 id="2e24a655-0204-447b-af95-6ae37bfeed84">I've had an amazing experience with the UK's healthcare system</h2><div type="image" title="Pooja Shah with husband and sunset in background" height="1152" width="1536" msid="115301509" hostid="261" sizebytes="94628"></div>The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/british-healthcare-as-an-american-2017-3">UK's National Health Service (NHS)</a> has provided a more straightforward, universal healthcare experience than the private insurance I had through my employer in the US.I no longer worry about sky-high medical bills or filing insurance claims. Sure, there can be longer wait times for certain procedures, such as routine dental cleaning or eye exams, but the peace of mind of knowing I'm covered is invaluable.Earlier this month, my husband and I welcomed our firstborn child. Initially, I was worried about navigating an unfamiliar health system.Then, I learned about a hotline service through the NHS that any parent can use as often as they want <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-i-wish-i-knew-about-pregnancy-before-getting-pregnant-2022-10">during pregnancy</a>. The team of compassionate midwives I spoke to over the phone offered guidance and reassurance throughout my pregnancy, free of charge.After my son's birth, community health visitors and midwives visited our home, ensuring that both my newborn and I were coping well with the postpartum period.My son, who was born preterm, was closely monitored, and I was offered breastfeeding assistance. We also had the option to go to local drop-in clinics as often as we liked to improve latching, meet other parents, and attend music therapy sessions.Moving to a new country in your 30s is never an easy transition, but overall, I prefer life in London over New York City because of the slightly more relaxed lifestyle, reliable healthcare system, and work-life boundaries.Though I miss my family and friends in New York City, London is now home for the foreseeable future.

I moved from New York City to London. The job hunt was a culture shock but it was worth it for the healthcare and work-life balance.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump has chosen Pete Hegseth as his defense secretary at a key point in the war in Ukraine.</li><li>The military veteran and Fox News commentator has mostly aligned with Trump on Ukraine.</li></ul>President-elect Donald Trump announced Pete Hegseth, a military veteran and Fox News host, as his pick for defense secretary on Tuesday — in a move that came as a surprise to many onlookers.The choice of Hegseth raised questions about the US' approach to the war in Ukraine under a second Trump administration.In an episode of the "<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="c-link" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DoN5ovwB8s4">Shawn Ryan Show</a>" podcast last week, recorded before Trump's announcement, Hegseth said he didn't think Russian President Vladimir Putin would go further than Ukraine and attack countries like Poland.He also said that he didn't want US intervention to push Putin too far and consider nuclear weapons."I don't want American intervention driving deep into Europe and making him feel like he's so much on his heels that he does have to — because early on, he was talking about nukes," Hegseth said.He added that the US had "burned two decades of money" in Afghanistan and Iraq, and that it was "tempted to do it again" in Ukraine.<h2 id="61256949-e32e-4db3-8cb6-308e5ff46ccf">Hegseth on Ukraine</h2>Hegseth has long mirrored some of Trump's key positions on foreign policy and Ukraine.Back in 2022, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-genius-putin-troll-media-pete-hegseth-fox-news-host-2022-2">Hegseth defended remarks</a> Trump had made just before Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Trump had called Putin's recognition of the independence of the Ukrainian breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-ukraine-invasion-justification-genius-savvy-2022-2">"genius" and "wonderful."</a>Trump's comments shocked onlookers at the time. But Hegseth argued on "Jesse Watters Primetime" that Trump was <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-genius-putin-troll-media-pete-hegseth-fox-news-host-2022-2">merely trying to "troll" the US media</a> that had made Putin into a strawman.Putin invaded Ukraine two days later.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxDe0KtJJio">Speaking on Fox News</a> in March 2022, Hegseth also criticized both Putin as a "war criminal" and the administration of President Joe Biden for not equipping Ukraine fast enough.Notably, he said that Putin sees any cease-fire as "an opportunity to reload.""What's at stake is repelling an authoritarian who basically is saying 'I want the Soviet Union back, I want Ukraine back, I want Kyiv back,'" he said.<h2 id="4f78b610-6763-4299-ac3b-80324c5e4541">Critical of NATO</h2>Hegseth has also been critical of the US' NATO allies, saying in the same Fox interview that the US should step up if Putin's aggression spread to Eastern Europe, but that as the most exposed countries they should be taking the lead.However, Hegseth's rhetoric on NATO has steadily sharpened in recent years, with him calling the US' allies "outdated, outgunned, invaded, and impotent" in his book "The War on Warriors: Behind the Betrayal of the Men Who Keep Us Free," <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-he-will-nominate-fox-news-host-pete-hegseth-defense-secretary-2024-11-13/">according to Reuters</a>.Trump has long been vocal about NATO countries not meeting their target of 2% of GDP spent on their militaries, even going so far as to say that he'd encourage other countries to invade those that don't meet it.<h2 id="25c55fe0-3e27-45b5-85e3-00c22afe334f">A diminished role?</h2>Even so, military analysts who talked to BI said they don't expect Hegseth to play a major decision-making role in policy toward Ukraine, or in any decision to scale back aid.In office, Hegseth would join a group of senior Trump officials with influence over the direction of the war, though Trump would have the final say. His national security advisor, Michael Waltz, and vice president, JD Vance would also likely be significant voices, as would Trump's choice for Secretary of State, which several outlets reported is likely to be Senator Marco Rubio.Vance has previously criticized US support for Ukraine, and <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="c-link" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-soldiers-react-trump-election-win-war-russia-military-aid-2024-11">said</a>: "I don't really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another."Alexander Libman, a professor of Russian and East European politics at the Free University of Berlin, said that "Trump is selecting members of his administration primarily based on their personal loyalty."This means that their own opinions "may not matter that much — it will be up to what Trump wants them to do," he added.Libman said he expects Trump to invest considerable efforts to stop the war early on, and his cabinet members to fall in line.Anton Barbashin, the cofounder and editorial director at Riddle Russia, an online journal on Russian affairs, told BI that he doesn't expect Defense Secretary Hegseth to cut support for Ukraine, with any peace deal between Putin and Trump unlikely in the short term.Instead, he said the US may actually ramp up aid to Ukraine if peace talks fail."So far, the signals are moderately opportunistic — Trump is nominating hawkish folks, so Kyiv may count on increased support," he said.

Trump's Pentagon pick criticized US involvement in Ukraine, said Putin probably wouldn't go 'much further' if he wins

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The package could include 60 F-35 fighter jets and 400 Patriot missiles, the FT reported.</li><li>President-elect Donald Trump has previously said Taiwan should pay the US to defend it.</li></ul>Taiwan may buy a US weapons package worth more than $15 billion to show President-elect Donald Trump it is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-second-trump-term-could-mean-for-taiwan-2024-11">serious about defending itself against China.</a>According to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/7b218d0f-31dc-4b74-b993-797388767b85?accessToken=zwAGJqGjGpd4kc97IY0PMdxLdNO5k3lziHZ7hQ.MEUCIQCAow4-CBONXl340UqaPd270RNc_ZIhv2hdm3MqwWimCgIgPqmCS_wY-M_bKjWPrEa0lSnvJuP3yobl-8J1ABzEyFc&amp;sharetype=gift&amp;token=1e32a79b-29f2-47dd-9258-51b0c98dd174">the Financial Times</a>, the package could include 60 F-35 fighter jets, four Advanced Hawkeyes, 10 retired warships, and 400 Patriot missiles.People familiar with the matter told the publication that Taiwan may also request Lockheed Martin's Aegis Combat System, which uses satellites to detect and destroy missile launches."Taiwan is thinking about a package to show that they are serious," one former Trump administration official told the Financial Times."Assuming they follow through, they will go to the US national security advisor when they are named and present a very aggressive package of American hardware."A senior Taiwanese national security official told the FT that informal discussions have already begun with the president-elect's team.Business Insider could not independently verify the report.In a <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/taiwan-says-no-new-stage-talks-with-us-arms-sales-2024-11-11/">statement to Reuters</a>, the Taiwanese government denied renewed talks on arms sales with the US."There has been a period of consolidation and discussion between Taiwan and the United States on military needs, but there is no new stage of discussion at this time," it said.US officials believe China, which claims Taiwan as part of its territory, will be ready to<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-possible-war-2027-china-taiwan-invasion-lisa-franchetti-2024-9"> invade</a> by 2027.China would initially seek to target key US military sites in the region in missile attacks, then deploy thousands of drones to surveil and help pinpoint further strikes, experts previously <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-taiwan-drone-swarms-uav-us-playing-catch-up-production-2024-10">told BI.</a>The stakes are high. In its Global Peace <a target="_blank" href="https://www.economicsandpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/GPI-2023-Web.pdf">Index</a> 2023, the Institute for Economics and Peace estimated that a Chinese blockade of Taiwan would result in a $2.7 trillion loss in world economic activity in the first year alone, equivalent to a 2.8% decline in global GDP.Bloomberg's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-05-25/bloomberg-new-economy-china-blockade-simulation-raises-5-trillion-risk">modeling</a>, meanwhile, estimates that a total blockade of Taiwan and Western sanctions on China could result in a 5% worldwide GDP decline, with US GDP falling by 3.3% and China's by 8.9%.While Trump has not yet revealed his policy toward Taiwan, he has made comments to suggest Taiwan should pay the US to defend it against China."We're no different than an insurance company," he told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2024-trump-interview-transcript/?embedded-checkout=true">Bloomberg</a> in July."Taiwan doesn't give us anything. Taiwan is 9,500 miles away. It's 68 miles away from China. A slight advantage, and China's a massive piece of land, they could just bombard it."They don't even need to — I mean, they can literally just send shells. Now they don't want to do that because they don't want to lose all those chip plants."Benjamin Blandin, a researcher at the Yokosuka Council on Asia-Pacific Studies, told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-second-trump-term-could-mean-for-taiwan-2024-11">BI's Singapore bureau</a> it's unclear what protection Taiwan could receive from the US under Trump even if it were to pay up.Blandin added that it's highly unlikely the US would send troops to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack."China will likely test American reactions by increasing further its gray-zone activities around Taiwan and also against the Philippines," said Sari Arho Havrén, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank. In 2022,<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-us-would-use-military-if-china-attacked-taiwan-2022-5"> Biden vowed to defend Taiwan</a> in case of a Chinese attack. In October, he <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-approves-2b-arms-sale-taiwan-including-nasams-missile-system-2024-10">approved $2 billion in arms sales</a> to Taiwan, including radar systems and three National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile SystemsDespite approving packages to Taiwan worth upward of $21 billion during his first term, Trump has been less explicit in his support.The Trump transition team, the Chinese embassy in London, and the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.gov.uk/world/organisations/british-office-taipei">British Office Taipei</a> did not immediately respond to a request for comment from BI.

Taiwan wants to buy F-35 fighter jets and Patriot missiles to show Trump it's serious: report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Two Atlantic Council papers on a Taiwan war suggested the US plan for nuclear strikes on China.</li><li>They were met with backlash from some nuclear scholars, who worry such rhetoric only provokes Beijing.</li></ul>Sipping coffee on a winter break morning, David Kearn of St. John's University scanned through his day's list of memos and reports when a new paper caught his eye."The role of nuclear weapons in a Taiwan crisis," read its title.Published by the Atlantic Council in late November, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/the-role-of-nuclear-weapons-in-a-taiwan-crisis/">the report </a>discussed how a potential US-China war over Taiwan might play out — and how the Pentagon might win with tactical nuclear bombs.Kearn was stunned. This was coming from a serious analyst for an organization of repute."I mean, geez," the associate professor of government and politics told Business Insider. "This really seems like a radical departure even for the defense think tank world."In his 20 years of researching nuclear arms — including a post at RAND and advising the US Defense Secretary's office — he'd never seen such overt posturing about nukes against China.The paper's author, Greg Weaver, is influential and experienced. A former deputy director of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Weaver was also principal director for US nuclear and missile defense policy at the Defense Department during the Obama years.One possible nuclear target, his paper wrote, might be Chinese ground troops sailing across the Taiwan Strait.A week later, the Atlantic Council published a separate, similar paper by political scientist Matthew Kroenig. He was one of 12 experts appointed by Congress to advise US nuclear strategy. His report's title began: <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/deliberate-nuclear-use-in-a-war-over-taiwan-scenarios-and-considerations-for-the-united-states/">"Deliberate nuclear use in a war over Taiwan."</a>Neither author outright argued for a first-strike nuclear attack on China. But they asked the US to seriously consider the option for a Taiwan war, largely as a deterrent — and to let Beijing know it's on the table.Alarmed, several US nuclear scholars rushed to criticize the papers, including Kearn, who slammed them as <a target="_blank" href="https://warontherocks.com/2024/03/strategic-myopia-the-proposed-first-use-of-tactical-nuclear-weapons-to-defend-taiwan/">"strategic myopia" in a scathing commentary.</a>Months later, the November reports still rest uneasily with top academics, who see the papers as inflammatory fringe rhetoric that's leaping to the fore in the US. But Kroenig and Weaver's arguments have been met with approval from other respected figures in nuclear scholarship, who say the outrage is unwarranted.Their debate underscores a deeper shift among leading US minds toward a starkly more aggressive nuclear posture against China, which the US says will become a rival nuclear superpower by 2035 but has refused to take part in crucial talks so far.Business Insider spoke to nine nuclear arms scholars and US-China relations experts about the November reports and their implications on two countries so entangled in their economies and influence."Now that China is becoming conventionally powerful, the US threats of nuclear first-use are moving further to the forefront," said James Acton, co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace."My sense is that what Greg and Matt were writing is very much a reflection of what already goes on within the US military," he added.<h2 id="0183b21a-ec25-4a8e-b215-4524af6e1e37">'The Chinese read everything we write about them'</h2>To be sure, US nuclear policy doesn't rule out first strikes. But scholars who disagree with Kroenig and Weaver, several of whom work closely with experts in China, warned against the idea of making a threat."It's a dangerous line of thinking, and it's extremely reckless," said Lyle Goldstein, director of the China Initiative at Brown University.He said such threats would only escalate tensions, not shock China into backing off from Taiwan as Kroenig and Weaver might hope.Beijing has known for decades that the Pentagon may launch a nuclear first strike, said Goldstein. The US once floated <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://fas.org/publication/nukes-in-the-taiwan-crisis/">nuclear retaliation</a> in 1958 if China invaded Taiwan, and stationed nuclear weapons on the island until 1974.When Goldstein visited China in early 2023, local experts reiterated to him that the country sees Washington as growing extremely aggressive, and still actively discusses how the US may launch a nuclear strike."Maybe Kroenig is right. Maybe China will say: 'OK, we don't want nuclear war, forget this whole thing, we're not interested in Taiwan at all.' But I don't think so at all," Goldstein said. "In fact, I think the opposite will happen."Acton of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace also disagreed that the US should emphasize its strike capabilities."China already thinks this. Chinese experts write a lot about how they think the US sees the nuclear threshold as being very low," he said.Francesca Giovannini, executive director of the Project on Managing the Atom at Harvard University's Kennedy School, fears all sides are losing clarity on the mutual boundaries that prevent a large-scale nuclear war."In China, it is obvious in their minds that the US now treats Taiwan as it would treat South Korea or Japan," she said. "And when all of a sudden we talk about using nuclear weapons in the Taiwan Strait, we are very clearly blurring the commitments we have made."Taiwan is not a formal US ally, and Giovannini says American thought leaders are conflating a loss of primacy in the Indo-Pacific with an existential threat.She is sure that China is watching Kroenig and Weaver's rhetoric, even if their reports may not represent US policy."The Chinese read everything that we write about them. Everything," she said.The Chinese foreign affairs ministry and embassy in Washington, DC, did not respond to requests for comment from BI.<h2 id="b4f73151-0991-4549-aa1e-9fc23f52b2dc">The case for nukes in the Taiwan Strait</h2>Kroenig, a professor at Georgetown University, was commissioned last year by Congress to advise the US on nuclear strategy.He believes that if Taiwan falls, so too will America's credibility as a leading power. That makes Taiwan a core US interest, he said, and one the US should consider protecting with nuclear weapons.Concerns are now growing that China is catching up in conventional arms, with missiles that can kill aircraft carriers and long-range strikes threatening Guam.Some observers speculate that if Beijing thinks the gap has truly closed, it may be willing to invade on the gamble that the US won't risk conflict. After all, should the US go to war and fail to win handily, global faith in Washington would crack."One way deterrence could fail is if Xi Jinping thinks: 'Maybe this will be easy, maybe I can get away with it,'" Kroenig said.Hence, his November report suggested that the US move past strategic ambiguity and declare Taiwan part of its nuclear umbrella. It would essentially tell Beijing that an invasion of the island risks nuclear war, he said.To back up that threat, he said, the US must show that it has the capability to nuke targets like navy ships, military installations in the South China Sea, and even on the Chinese mainland."What's the benefit of reassuring Xi that our nuclear weapons are not relevant?" he said.Weaver's report works off a forecast for 2027, when China is expected to possess 700 nuclear warheads. He, too, told BI that deterrence is the main goal, and said his paper doesn't call for the US to rely on tactical nuclear strikes for Taiwan.But if open conflict does break out, they could be useful as a warfighting tool, he said."The Chinese amphibious landing force would be a stationary target for hours if not days, and it would be off the coast," he said. "So relatively low-yield nuclear weapons could destroy that amphibious force and do little to no collateral damage onshore in Taiwan."A heavyweight in nuclear policy, he said his intention was to advocate for more strategic options for the US president. There is concern that if the US is stretched across two theaters at once — potentially one with Russia and one with China — it would need solutions like nukes to deter or fight one of those wars."It's not the preferred course, but it's an option that the Chinese need to understand is there, and they need to take seriously," he said.A spokesperson for the US State Department declined to comment on Kroenig and Weaver's reports, but said the US maintains a "very high bar for nuclear employment.'""The United States would only consider the use of nuclear weapons in extreme circumstances to defend the vital interests of the United States or its Allies and partners," they said.<h2 id="2e5484f1-9b8a-4a95-a086-4c7e2fbd929d">'It's important the Chinese understand this'</h2>Marshall Billingslea, the former US special presidential envoy for arms control, told BI he didn't see why the reports caused such a stir."We do already keep track of and plan for and are able to strike targets in China if that should become necessary. It's important that the Chinese understand this," said Billingslea, who <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-new-arms-control-envoy-has-a-short-clock-for-an-uphill-deal-11587913200">led US negotiations with Russia in 2020</a> on the New START Treaty.And it is China's actions that should be cause for worry, he added.US intelligence has charted a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-now-fastest-growing-nuclear-arsenal-in-the-world-report-2024-6">sudden burst in nuclear build-up from Bejing</a>, which bolstered its arsenal to 500 warheads in 2023, up from 400 in 2022. China denies any expansion, and concerns abound in the US that it may soon become a rogue nuclear superpower."Since the dawn of the atomic era, we have not had a three-way nuclear arms race, but that is precisely what China is creating, that unpredictable, unstable dynamic," said Billingslea.Rebeccah Heinrichs, director of the Hudson Institute's Keystone Defense Initiative, agreed with Kroenig and Weaver, also describing Taiwan as a "clear threat to US vital interests.""It would be foolish not to give the President of the United States and his military forces the most effective means to convince the PRC it will not take Taiwan at an acceptable cost," she said.When Weaver was asked if more aggressive rhetoric from the US could be used by China to justify its nuclear build-up, he said Beijing's expansion is happening regardless."They were already doing that," he said. "They were doing that long before Matt and I wrote our analyses."<h2 id="65c3f298-738c-440e-8eed-536934e79de8">Some experts fear a wider fallout</h2>On the other hand, Jake Werner, acting director of the East Asia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statescraft, raised concern that the November reports would empower anti-US parties in China."The American public doesn't understand that there are different positions in the Chinese debate. There are people who are very aggressive, there are people who are very cautious," he told BI."Because threat perceptions are so elevated on the Chinese side, saying things like this is bound to be used in a way that exacerbates fear in the Chinese public, if not among officials," he said.Kearn of St. Johns University said the US has more than China to worry about if it makes the threat; it could lose credibility with allies like South Korea or Japan if they believe Washington is bluffing."On what foundation of diplomatic or political relations can you even pretend to have credibility in that situation, of threatening the use of nuclear weapons for the first time since 1945?" he said.He added that threatening war — much less nuclear war — over Taiwan would be deeply unpopular at home."That's not where the American people are, by any poll I've ever seen," he said.Kroenig believes the gravity of nuclear escalation and annihilation will still give Beijing pause if it considers invading Taiwan."Even if they suspected it's a bluff, if they think there's even a 10% chance of nuclear war, that would be pretty significant to strengthen deterrence," said Kroenig.

2 renowned strategists say the US should defend Taiwan with nuclear strikes. Experts say such talk is just a taste of what's to come.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Hungary's PM Viktor Orbán said the US will abandon its support for Ukraine, days after Trump's win.</li><li>He said that the US "will quit" the war and there's a "military defeat in Ukraine," per reports.</li></ul>Hungary's leader, Viktor Orbán, has a chilling forecast: the US will abandon Ukraine under President-elect Donald Trump."The Americans will quit this war," he told national radio, per multiple outlets, including <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungarys-pm-orban-says-trump-will-quit-ukraine-war-forcing-eu-rethink-2024-11-08/">Reuters</a>. "There is military defeat in Ukraine."Orbán is Russian President Vladimir Putin's closest ally in the European Union, a position that has put him <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hungary-prime-minister-viktor-orban-shunned-europeanu-union-russia-putin-2024-7">out of favor</a> in the bloc.Trump and Orbán have long shown mutual admiration.In the past, Trump called Orbán his "friend" and lauded him for his knowledge of world affairs. And during his debate with Vice President Kamala Harris in September, Trump <a target="_blank" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-trump-presidential-debate-transcript/story?id=113560542">described</a> Orbán as one of the world's "most respected men" — a "strong man" and "a tough person."The Hungarian prime minister's prediction came after Trump secured a return to the White House, and follows reports that Trump's advisors are laying out different plans on how to end the war in Ukraine.One plan includes establishing an 800-mile demilitarized zone and having Ukraine pledge not to join NATO for at least 20 years, The Wall Street Journal <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-advisors-peace-plans-ukraine-demilitarized-zone-no-aid-russia-2024-11">reported</a> Wednesday, citing three people close to Trump.Keith Kellogg and Fred Fleitz, two top officials who served on the National Security Council under Trump's first administration, presented another plan to Trump earlier this year that involved withholding weapons from Ukraine until the country agreed to engage in peace talks with Russia, <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-reviews-plan-halt-us-military-aid-ukraine-unless-it-negotiates-peace-with-2024-06-25/">Reuters</a> reported at the time.Trump hasn't approved a specific plan as yet, those close to him told the Journal.Orbán's forecast comes as world leaders hold key meetings this week, in part to discuss the war in Ukraine.At a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1YqKDkLMnjkxV">press conference</a> held at the European Political Community in Budapest on Thursday, Orbán also urged Europe to define the terms of a Ukrainian victory, saying he hoped this "intellectual" work would be done by Friday night.European leaders are convening at a European Council summit in Budapest on Friday, where they are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/european-council/2024/11/07-08/?utm_source=x.com&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=20241107-informal-euco-announcer&amp;utm_content=visual-card">expected</a> to discuss security and geopolitics in Ukraine.Meanwhile, in an interview with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hungary-next-months-ukraine-war-far-more-brutal-russia-china-2024-7">Axel Springer</a> media outlets earlier this year, Orbán said he was holding meetings with world leaders as part of a "peace mission" tour to create a "limited-time" cease-fire to speed up peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.Orbán was among the first European leaders to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/PM_ViktorOrban/status/1854062809304154172">congratulate</a> Trump on his victory.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also quickly congratulated Trump, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1854289413246705695">saying</a> that strong and unwavering US leadership is vital for the world and for a just peace.

A pro-Trump European leader predicts he will abandon Ukraine: 'The Americans will quit this war'

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump has previously said he could end the war in Ukraine in a day, but never detailed how.</li><li>Trump's advisors have reportedly set out plans, including setting up a demilitarized zone.</li></ul>Donald Trump is the new US president-elect — and his advisors are laying out plans on how to end the war in Ukraine, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/world/trump-presidency-ukraine-russia-war-plans-008655c0?st=3EZGUw&amp;">The Wall Street Journal</a>.One of the plans includes establishing an 800-mile demilitarized zone, the Journal reported, citing three people close to Trump.Under that plan, Ukraine would also pledge not to join NATO for at least 20 years in exchange for continued US weapons deliveries, they said.It's unclear who would police the DMZ, and one advisor told the Journal that American troops and US-funded international organizations like the UN would not be part of any peacekeeping mission.Vice President-elect JD Vance discussed a similar idea in an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HrgmwtpAsWc">interview</a> with the "Shawn Ryan Show" in September.He said a peaceful settlement would "probably" look like a demilitarized zone on the current line of demarcation between Russia and Ukraine, which would be "heavily fortified" so that Russian forces don't invade again.Under that plan, Vance said that Ukraine wouldn't join NATO so that Russia would get its guarantee of neutrality, and that Germany, among others, would fund some of its reconstruction.Trump hasn't approved a specific plan, those close to him told the Journal, which would also have to involve getting Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to negotiate.According to the report, the proposals all depart from President Joe Biden's approach of letting Kyiv decide when peace talks should begin. They also all recommend freezing the war where it stands, geographically.Keith Kellogg and Fred Fleitz, two top officials who served on the National Security Council under Trump's first administration, presented another plan to Trump earlier this year that involved withholding weapons from Ukraine until the country agreed to engage in peace talks with Russia, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-reviews-plan-halt-us-military-aid-ukraine-unless-it-negotiates-peace-with-2024-06-25/">Reuters</a> reported in June.During negotiations, a cease-fire would be established based on the current combat lines, Fleitz told the news agency at the time.Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.foxnews.com/video/6331305533112">has</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/27/trump-zelenskyy-meet-high-stakes-ukraine-talks-new-york">repeatedly</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/11/politics/transcript-cnn-town-hall-trump/index.html">said</a> he could end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours by forcing Russia and Ukraine to negotiate a peace deal — but has never detailed how he would go about it.Trump told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.foxnews.com/video/6331305533112">Fox News</a> last year that he would end the war in one day by threatening Ukraine with a suspension of aid and threatening Russia that he would send more aid to Ukraine if Putin doesn't agree to make a deal.In a statement sent to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/komadovsky/status/1767591439230247076">Voice of America</a> in March, Steven Cheung, the Trump campaign's communications director, said Trump's top priority in his second term would be to "quickly negotiate" an end to the war in Ukraine.And in a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?539606-1/president-trump-delivers-remarks-mar-lago">speech</a> at an election night event at his resort in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, Trump said he would stop the wars, but he did not detail how he would do it.Donald Trump's campaign didn't immediately respond to a BI request for comment.Kurt Volker, the US ambassador to NATO between 2008 and 2009 and a former special envoy to Ukraine under Trump, told the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://kyivindependent.com/trump-to-call-putin-seek-quick-deal-to-end-russia-ukraine-war-says-volker/">Kyiv Independent</a> he believes Trump will call Putin "as quickly as possible" and urge him to stop the war by projecting power.One way of doing this, Volker said, was ramping up oil and gas production and trying to flood global markets with as much cheap energy as possible, with the intent of negatively impacting Russia's economy.It will be "bad for Putin's budget, and so I think that's one thing that he is almost guaranteed to do," Volker said.Since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, Russia has repeatedly increased its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-defense-military-war-spending-drains-resources-other-sectors-2024-1">defense budget</a> to sustain its war in Ukraine, but the move has caused domestic <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-crisis-ukraine-war-moscow-inflation-sanctions-putin-spending-2024-10">inflation</a> to soar, forcing Russia's central bank to hike <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-central-bank-raises-key-interest-rate-to-21-2024-10">interest rates</a>.

Trump's advisors are laying out plans on how to end the war in Ukraine

Andrew Webber's forever war 

The strongest tie between the US and China is unraveling.For decades, Wall Street and corporate America have chased the promise of the ascendant Chinese consumer. As regular Chinese households got richer, there was money to be made selling them everything from fried chicken to Fendi. US companies like Starbucks, Apple, and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nike-faces-record-streak-of-losses-as-china-concerns-linger-1032574432">Nike</a> jumped in to gobble up market share. Sure, there were some boycotts and busts, but the trend line for returns was up and to the right. And as long as the Chinese consumer's glorious rise was as inevitable as the Chinese Communist Party claimed, gains would multiply. That was the story. It was gospel. But now it's falling apart.The once-flowering Chinese consumer is languishing. US companies are losing market share to China-based rivals. Beset by political and economic forces, American brands can no longer count on China for growth. That changes the risk calculus. Why invest heavily in a market that's boxing you out? Without the promise of profits, American firms are also becoming less willing to go to bat for China — to reinforce the idea that China's market is crucial to the success of their futures. Beijing is finding itself increasingly friendless in Washington — and the weight of the US-China relationship is shifting from constructing mutually beneficial economic ties to balancing antagonistic national security interests. Rather than try to resurrect the Chinese consumer and, by extension, reestablish critical economic ties with America, though, its leader, Xi Jinping, doesn't seem to care."Xi doesn't wake up every day, look at the economy, and panic," Lee Miller, the founder of the survey firm China Beige Book told me. "He thinks they're doing what they need to do, and it's painful medicine."What China needs to do, in Xi's mind, is make itself indestructible and indispensable. That means supporting state-owned enterprises and other domestic firms, giving them a leg up in the market as they compete against foreign firms for a piece of China's shrinking economic pie. It means getting the rest of the world addicted to China's products — not just cheap manufactured goods but also advanced technology like <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-xi-jiinping-future-tech-global-economy-semiconductors-military-failing-2022-9">semiconductors</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-crushing-us-america-battle-energy-evs-batteries-tech-war-2023-5">batteries</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-xi-jinping-ai-wreak-havoc-america-world-economy-2024-6">AI</a> and the commodities that make up the downstream of its supply chain, such as gallium and germanium. Self-sufficiency for me, but not for thee. It is a strategy so imbalanced that it dares the rest of the world to do something about it. And it does not include Chinese people getting hooked on frappuccinos made by an American company.Part of the peace between China and the US has been the notion that we can do business with one another even though we don't share the same values. The US strives to be an open society; China is increasingly closed. We may butt heads in the South China Sea, over Taiwan, over resources across the globe, but it was money that kept us together. Without access to the Chinese consumer, US stakeholders have less reason to see China as a market and more reason to see it as a menace.<h2>No demand</h2>After pandemic lockdowns ended in 2023, the Chinese economy experienced what is known on Wall Street as a "dead cat bounce." Picture a dead cat being dropped: It may rebound off the ground a bit, but after that, it's going nowhere. Similarly, China's decimated economy got a bit of a pickup once COVID restrictions ended in 2023, but a year later, things look bleak. Beijing's 5% GDP growth target — once seen as a slam dunk — is now openly in doubt. Debt in the property market is still dragging the economy down, and the government's bets on an export boom don't seem to be paying off. Prolonged deflation erodes the value of China's currency and ultimately means it has to sell more exports to make the same amount of money. Unemployment for Chinese young people between the ages of 16 and 24 spiked to 17.1% in July, forcing a new class of (often) overeducated graduates to compete for low-wage jobs. They're being called <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/rotten-tail-kids-chinas-rising-youth-unemployment-breeds-new-working-class-2024-08-21/">"rotten tail kids."</a> Brutal.In previous downturns, the Chinese Communist Party reacted by shooting the money gun — spending on infrastructure, housing, and keeping people employed. This kept the wheels turning, but each turn left the country with a larger pile of debt. There is only one way to get off a ride like this, and it's a painful period of paying down debt that can obliterate demand in an economy. Xi has decided to put down the money gun without doing anything to aid average Chinese households as the economy shrinks. Xi told party members in July to show "unwavering faith" in his grand economic strategy, but he has paid them in dust. Earlier this month, in an unusual divergence from Xi's policy, the former head of the People's Bank of China, Yi Gang, said that the government should engage in some kind of stimulus to reach its already-softened growth targets. The inflation that does exist in the economy, as the Carnegie Endowment fellow <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1833022599712113044c">Michael Pettis noted</a>, is being driven by higher food prices due to shortages — hardly a sign that things could be turning around. American companies have been feeling this burn. At the beginning of this year, China's Apple <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-new-iphone-16-china-market-sales-glowtime-2024-9#:~:text=The%20downward%20trend%20has%20continued,drop%20in%20the%20second%20quarter.">iPhone sales fell 24%</a>, and they've been trending down ever since. Starbucks, which has more than 7,300 stores in China, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-starbucks-is-struggling-in-china-sales-prices-competition-coffee-2024-8">saw comparable store sales</a> — revenue generated by a retail location relative to its performance in the past — fall 14% in the second quarter. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nikes-sales-to-fall-this-year-as-turnaround-plan-continues-2024-6">Nike's China woes</a> have contributed to its year-to-date nearly 30% stock slump. F<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-xi-jinping-crush-tesla-elon-musk-american-ev-industry-2024-2">oreign car companies are getting crushed, too</a>. Tesla — yes, even Tesla — saw its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/5efcef9f-645d-44cb-96cf-9cd19719d4aa">share of the Chinese electric-vehicle market</a> decline from 9% to 6.5% in the first seven months of the year. In response to the reports, CEO Elon Musk said: "Believing the news is silly. Our Shanghai factory is running at max capacity." In other words: not no. In a recent <a target="_blank" href="https://www.uschina.org/reports/2024-member-survey?utm_campaign=Marketing_Cloud&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=News+Release+2024+Member+Survey&amp;%20utm_content=https%3a%2f%2fwww.uschina.org%2freports%2f2024-member-survey">US-China Business Council member survey</a>, China's economic growth came in as American companies' second-biggest concern about the country — a "real constraint that was somewhat unthinkable only a few years ago." The council said that a quarter of its members cited "insufficient demand or overcapacity as the No. 1 constraint on profitability this year."What money Chinese consumers are still able to spend is increasingly going to companies that grew up in their home country. Domestic Chinese phone makers are eating Apple's lunch, with Huawei's smartphone <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-new-iphone-16-china-market-sales-glowtime-2024-9#:~:text=The%20downward%20trend%20has%20continued,drop%20in%20the%20second%20quarter.">sales surging 70%</a> in the first three months of the year. Starbucks opened its first China store in 1999 and used to be seen as a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.joebm.com/vol9/649-DM1003.pdf">status symbol</a>, but now it has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/3273882/starbucks-feels-chill-china-prices-vibes-lose-favour-thrifty-coffee-fans">stiffer competition from Chinese brands</a> like Luckin and Cotti Coffee. This is no accident; it's part of Xi's plan to rid China of foreign dependence and influence. In the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.uschina.org/reports/2024-member-survey?utm_campaign=Marketing_Cloud&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=News+Release+2024+Member+Survey&amp;%20utm_content=https%3a%2f%2fwww.uschina.org%2freports%2f2024-member-survey">US-China Business Council survey</a>, 80% of respondents said that "China's industrial policies are strengthening companies that were previously uncompetitive," and competition from Chinese rivals came in as the third-highest concern about doing business there. Yes, US companies are still making money in China. But it's <a target="_blank" href="https://businessinsider.com/china-has-found-another-way-to-hurt-usa-inc-2024-3">increasingly uncomfortable</a>, and the Magic 8 Ball says the outlook is not good.<h2>Ya gotta have friends (in Washington)</h2>America's elite financial firms will still publicly tell you they expect to keep investing in China even though the investment-banking business in the country has, as JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon recently said, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/25d17ea1-17e8-4f6a-9da4-9f726970d4e4">"fallen off a cliff</a>." Behind closed doors, however, Wall Street power players are singing a much different tune. It's not just the pressure from the economy — it's also the political climate. It's hard to do business in a country where <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-xi-jinping-hiding-bad-data-economy-debt-real-estate-2023-8">data</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/missing-chinese-ceo-stock-plunge-cooperate-government-probe-china-renaissance-2023-2">people</a> keep disappearing. Wall Street's change of attitude is reflected in the flow of money into China: Foreign direct investment is at a 30-year low, and from June to (as best we can tell) early August, investors pulled $12 billion from China's stock market. This could make 2024 China's first year of equity outflows. But we won't know for sure because, given the equity dumping, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/6e7a4129-d365-4905-8d9b-cc3f5ada5187">China decided last month to stop publishing data</a> showing net investment flows from foreign funds into mainland stocks.The declining Sino-Wall Street links are of particular note, not because I think the people of Shanghai and Beijing will miss drinking Moutai with Goldman Sachs bankers but because Wall Street is a powerful ally in Washington. They arrange meetings between stakeholders and talk up the benefits of the cross-Pacific relationship. Once upon a time, Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the biggest hedge fund in the world, would tell anyone — global politicians, investors, anyone who read one of his many books or blog posts — about China's bright future. Now he's telling everyone he's minimizing his exposure to the country and that there will be no <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-18/dalio-sees-real-issues-in-china-keeps-small-exposure?utm_source=website&amp;utm_medium=share&amp;utm_campaign=twitter">"beautiful deleveraging"</a> for China. This is the last thing Beijing needs seeping into the minds of US policymakers. One former East Asia State Department official told me China is sending CCP delegations to DC like mad, but no one will meet with them. Without allies, Washington is a lonely (or hostile) place for foreign governments, especially when those foreign governments have crafted an economic strategy that can potentially disadvantage our economy."We're heading into another trade war no matter who is president," Miller told me. "The economic model Xi wants is not compatible with the rest of the world. The mindset is to look at it from a national security perspective rather than an economic perspective."There are distinctions between what a President Kamala Harris and a President Donald Trump would mean for that trade war, though. Harris' camp would pursue a more incremental strategy, targeted toward protecting industries tied to tech and national security, and more in concert with our allies — a group the <a target="_blank" href="https://chinamediaproject.org/the_ccp_dictionary/us-west/">CCP has begun pejoratively calling "US-West."</a> It's an attempt to paint the US as dragging its allies along with our trade policies kicking and screaming. Trump would create more chaos and disunity between the US and its allies, which serves Beijing in the trade wars. However, he'll likely surround himself with China advisors who are much more aggressive and have a wider array of opinions on how to attack the Chinese economy — a bull in a china shop strategy, if you will. For Beijing, the problem is that this fractious group will be more likely to trip over its red line: Taiwan — and Trump lacks the attention span and temperament to stop them. The CCP has a plan for how to deal with a trade war, a kinetic war over Taiwan is much more worrisome for them and the entire planet. White House aside, Beijing has a blind spot here. The former State Department official told me that CCP officials don't fully understand the amount of power Congress wields. And Congress has become stridently anti-China. Even the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/13/house-republicans-china-wall-street-00179056">Republicans on the House Financial Services Committee</a> — once willing to let Wall Street invest freely in the Chinese economy — cannot agree about how stringent to make limitations on investing there. Some want to go hard; others want to go harder. The bipartisan House Select Committee on China has no problem firing warning shots at some of China's last corporate allies, the semiconductor companies. China's own attempts to develop a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-xi-jiinping-future-tech-global-economy-semiconductors-military-failing-2022-9">domestic-chip supply chain</a> still lag behind the state of the art, so it needs US companies like Broadcom and Nvidia. Those companies, in turn, love the billions they make in China. But in a <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/committeeonccp/status/1835753593367912600?utm_source=substack&amp;utm_medium=email">series of tweets</a>, the Select Committee urged the Biden administration to ignore semiconductor lobbyists working in Washington."We urge the Biden Administration to maintain the strong export controls put in place in October 2022," it said. "Weakening these measures would raise serious concerns about safeguarding U.S. technological leadership and our national security.""If these [semiconductor] CEOs believe that current US export control policy is bad for the US economy and our national security," it continued, "then they must make that case publicly, perhaps before a congressional committee."Miller told me that a tech decoupling between the US and China isn't a problem for Congress anymore — it's a goal. "A lot of this is talking to US companies who have a big share in China and are saying, 'You can't do this to us,'" he said. "Well, guess what? There are tradeoffs. Right now, we're not paying a high enough price for the right policy."The price of this shift cannot be quantified in corporate profits. It cannot be quantified in dollars at all. Cordell Hull, the US Secretary of State from 1933 to 1944 and recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-helping-american-farmers-could-start-trade-war-2018-4">once said</a>, "Unhampered trade dovetailed with peace; high tariffs, trade barriers, and unfair competition with war." Putting national security, rather than economic cooperation, at the center of the US-China relationship centers it in a space where the two great economic powers are antagonistic. It gives corporations, already under financial pressure as China's economy declines, even less reason to act as interlocutors encouraging stability between Washington and Beijing. It leaves us living in a more precarious world.<a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/linette-lopez">Linette Lopez</a> is a senior correspondent at Business Insider.

We're losing the one thing that's keeping the peace between America and China

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Western officials have suggested Ukraine consider peace negotiations with Russia, a report says.</li><li>US officials fear that Ukraine is running out of troops, while Russia seems to have an endless supply.</li></ul>Western officials have begun broaching the topic of holding peace negotiations with Russia with the Ukrainian government, a report says.The conversations have included broadly considering what Ukraine might need to give up to secure a deal, one current senior US official and one former senior US official familiar with the discussions told <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/us-european-officials-broach-topic-peace-negotiations-ukraine-sources-rcna123628" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NBC News.</a>These discussions have begun because of growing fears among US and European officials that the war has reached a stalemate and that it will be won by whoever can hold out the longest, the officials told the outlet.Ukraine's long-anticipated counteroffensive began five months ago and has achieved negligible gains.Western officials are concerned about keeping up the supply of aid to Ukraine, with the Biden administration having spent $43.9 billion on security assistance, per the Pentagon.Biden administration officials are also concerned that Ukraine is running out of forces as it struggles to recruit more troops for the fight.Russia, meanwhile, which has a population over three times the size of Ukraine's, seems to have an endless supply of soldiers to send to the front line, the officials said.The personnel shortages are a major concern of President Joe Biden, sources familiar with the matter told NBC."Manpower is at the top of the administration's concerns right now," one source said. While the US and allies can provide Ukraine with weapons, "if they don't have competent forces to use them, it doesn't do a lot of good," they said.While neither Russia nor Ukraine confirm the numbers of their casualties, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/18/ukraine-russia-war-battlefield-deaths-rise">Western estimates </a>have suggested Russia has had around 300,000 soldiers killed or wounded, while Ukraine has had around 200,000 killed or wounded.On Saturday, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy denied he was being pressured to consider peace talks with Russia's President Vladimir Putin. Today, no one is putting pressure, not one of the leaders of the EU or the United States. For us now to sit down with Russia and talk and give it something - this will not happen," he told a joint news conference with the European Commission head, Ursula von der Leyen, in Kyiv.<h2>Focus shifts away from Ukraine toward the Israel-Hamas war</h2><div type="image" title="The IDF fires artillery shells into Gaza on October 11 as fighting between Israeli troops and Hamas militants continues." height="3000" width="4000" msid="104971997" hostid="261" sizebytes="289106"></div>The emerging discussions over Ukraine also reflect shifting political tides in the West, as officials are concerned that public focus has shifted toward the Israel-Hamas war, which could make it more difficult to secure aid for Kyiv, the officials said.A US official told NBC that the administration has about $5 billion left to send to Ukraine.According to US officials, there have been private conversations about Ukraine likely only having until the end of the year before needing to begin a discussion about peace negotiations."Any decisions about negotiations are up to Ukraine," Adrienne Watson, spokesperson for the National Security Council, said in a statement, per NBC. "We are focused on continuing to stand strongly in support of Ukraine as they defend their freedom and independence against Russian aggression."It is not clear that Russian President Vladimir Putin would even be willing to negotiate with Ukraine.The Russian president might be hoping to "wait out the West" and hope support for Ukraine wanes, officials told the outlet.US officials have also previously expressed concerns that<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-trump-2024-win-us-funding-cuts-ukraine-cnn-2023-8?r=US&amp;IR=T"> Putin is hoping for Donald Trump</a> or another Republican to win the 2024 election and cut support for Ukraine.

US officials are concerned that Ukraine is running out of troops and have hinted at peace talks with Russia, report says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Israel launched a "limited" ground offensive in Lebanon after killing a top Hezbollah leader in airstrikes.</li><li>The attacks came just days after the US called for a 21-day cease-fire on September 25.</li></ul>The Israel Defense Forces, in a statement, confirmed it had begun a "limited, localized, and targeted" <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-launches-ground-offensive-into-lebanon-destroy-hezbollah-targets-2024-9">ground offensive in Lebanon </a>early Tuesday local time, aimed at the Iran-backed militant organization, Hezbollah, after trading back-and-forth strikes with the group for nearly a year.The ground offensive came after a series of airstrikes on September 27 that killed Hezbollah's longtime chief, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://businessinsider.com/who-was-hassan-nasrallah-the-hezbollah-leader-killed-by-israel-2024-9">Hassan Nasrallah</a>, a major victory for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.That Israel conducted the operations just days after the US called for a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/09/25/joint-statement-by-the-united-states-australia-canada-european-union-france-germany-italy-japan-saudi-arabia-united-arab-emirates-qatar/">21-day cease-fire</a> on September 25, however, only reinforces that Israel has its own interests, and a now-emboldened Netanyahu won't easily be reined in by the US, which has so far failed to deescalate the situation since the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-is-there-fighting-in-israel-and-what-caused-the-conflict-2023-10">October 7, 2023, Hamas terrorist attack</a>, foreign policy experts told Business Insider.The US, a key Israeli ally and intermediary in peace talks, has thus far failed to broker a cease-fire, negotiate the release of hostages being held by Hamas, or reign in civilian deaths in Israel's fight in Gaza.And despite increased international pressure for a cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah following a series of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hezbollah-pager-explosions-lebanese-residents-abandon-devices-2024-9">deadly pager explosions</a> in Lebanon earlier this month, Israel launched airstrikes and, now, what it is calling a "limited" ground invasion.Chuck Freilich, a former deputy national security advisor who served for over 20 years in Israel's security establishment, told BI that while Nasrallah's death was seen as a major accomplishment for Israel and the US, the strike "also reinforces the long-standing dislike for Netanyahu and the belief that he is not a reliable partner for the US."Freilich, currently a political science professor at Columbia University, noted that the relationship between Israel and the US has been tense before — recalling a 2014 incident wherein an official in then-President Barack Obama's administration was quoted calling Netanyahu a "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/netanyahu-chicken-comments-obama-israel-boehner-2014-10">chickenshit</a>." Benjamin Radd, a research fellow with the UCLA Center for Middle East Development, told BI that President Joe Biden's lame-duck status might be influencing Netanyahu's decision-making."I think we have a situation where the Israeli prime minister is finding himself a window with which to operate, where internationally — or at least here in the US — there seem to be number one, distractions, and number two, a candidate whose positions on Israel's foreign policy decisions might be more favorable toward the Prime Minister," Radd said, referring to a potential Donald Trump win in the upcoming election.Netanyahu, Radd said, seems to be seizing his opportunity for escalation in a way he wouldn't necessarily do if Biden weren't on his way out of office.Sean McFate, a national security and foreign policy expert at Syracuse University, told BI that the airstrike is a "major escalation" in the conflict and that Israel is not a "finger puppet" to the US that will easily kowtow to outside demands."I think it's hubris to think that America can just pull a leash, and Bibi does what we want," McFate said of Netanyahu using his nickname. Israel scored a major win by taking out <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/netanyahu-tricked-nasrallah-with-un-speech-official-says-2024-9">Nasrallah</a>, McFate said — a move that Biden acknowledged as a "measure of justice" in the same statement in which he called for diplomacy in Gaza and Lebanon.He added that the prime minister may also consider the US an unreliable partner.In May, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-has-been-holding-up-several-weapons-shipments-israel-2-weeks-source-says-2024-05-07/">Reuters</a> reported that the Biden administration paused a weapons shipment to Israel to oppose an apparent move to carry out an offensive into Rafah in southern Gaza."We have promised weapons, we don't deliver them on time," McFate said of Netanyahu's possible thinking. Israel ultimately went ahead with its military plans in Rafah.The killing of a top Hezbollah leader and the subsequent ground invasion complicates the already murky path to de-escalation.Netanyahu, who is in a politically fraught position as he faces <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israeli-pm-benjamin-netanyahu-indicted-on-fraud-bribery-charges-2019-11">corruption charges</a> (he denies wrongdoing) and has yet to secure the remaining hostages held by Hamas since last October, may now be even more emboldened, McFate said."The question is, what happens next? Does Israel escalate? Does Hezbollah escalate? Does Iran escalate?" McFate added. "We're at the most volatile moment since October 7."Representatives for the State Department and the Israeli prime minister's office did not respond to requests for comment from Business Insider.

Israel's airstrikes and incursion against Hezbollah show that the US can't easily rein in Netanyahu, foreign policy experts say

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China launched an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean on Wednesday.</li><li>China's defense ministry said the launch was a "routine" and part of annual training.</li></ul>China said it successfully launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the Pacific Ocean on Wednesday in a move likely to fuel concerns among its neighbors.The Chinese defense ministry said the missile, carrying a "dummy warhead" was launched at 8:44 a.m. local time and fell into "expected areas" in the Pacific Ocean.An <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.47news.jp/11536482.html">update from Japan's 47news</a> said the missile landed south of Hawaii.China called it a "routine" test that was part of its annual training plan. An analyst <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240925-china-launches-intercontinental-missile-into-pacific-in-rare-test">told AFP</a> that such test fires have not happened outside Chinese airspace in years.The last publicly known time China fired an ICBM in the Pacific was in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/1980/05/19/archives/china-calls-its-icbm-test-a-success-problems-in-missile-development.html">May 1980</a>.China said "relevant countries" had received prior notification. However, Japanese government spokesperson Yoshimasa Hayashi told reporters that there was "no notice from the Chinese side in advance."The test comes amid rising tensions in the region and concerns over China's nuclear arsenal.A 2023 <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://media.defense.gov/2023/Oct/19/2003323409/-1/-1/1/2023-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA.PDF">Pentagon report</a> estimated that China's arsenal of operational nuclear warheads had increased to about 500. The Pentagon said it expects China to have more than 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030."China is expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country," Hans M Kristensen, a Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) expert on weapons of mass destruction, said in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-now-fastest-growing-nuclear-arsenal-in-the-world-report-2024-6">June</a>.In July, China <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-us-tensions-high-after-xi-halts-nuclear-arms-talks-2024-7">pressed</a> pause on arms control and nuclear proliferation talks with the US, blaming the suspension on US arms sales to Taiwan.Taiwan's independence has been a decadeslong grievance for Beijing. The island declared its independence from the mainland in 1949.<a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ray-dalio-us-china-relations-red-lines-chips-taiwan-2023-10">China</a> claims that Taiwan is part of its territory and has threatened to attack it if it doesn't cede control."China aims to signal its growing military capabilities as the United States deepens its security ties with allies and partners in Asia," Ali Wyne, senior research and advocacy advisor at the Crisis Group, told BI."The timing of the test is notable, occurring shortly before the 75th anniversary of the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) founding and ahead of a phone call that US President Joe Biden and his counterpart Xi Jinping are expected to have in the coming weeks.""Amid ongoing turbulence within the top echelons of the PLA's Rocket Force, China may also be trying to telegraph that its military readiness continues to improve."

You Searched For "peace talks" and got 12 results

Trump's victory has already prompted a realignment on Ukraine

Sinéad Baker

I moved from New York City to London. The job hunt was a culture shock but it was worth it for the healthcare and work-life balance.

Pooja Shah

Trump's Pentagon pick criticized US involvement in Ukraine, said Putin probably wouldn't go 'much further' if he wins

Thibault Spirlet,Mia Jankowicz

Taiwan wants to buy F-35 fighter jets and Patriot missiles to show Trump it's serious: report

Hannah Abraham

2 renowned strategists say the US should defend Taiwan with nuclear strikes. Experts say such talk is just a taste of what's to come.

Matthew Loh

A pro-Trump European leader predicts he will abandon Ukraine: 'The Americans will quit this war'

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Trump's advisors are laying out plans on how to end the war in Ukraine

Thibault Spirlet

Andrew Webber's forever war

Sam Fellman,Ryan Pickrell

We're losing the one thing that's keeping the peace between America and China

Linette Lopez

US officials are concerned that Ukraine is running out of troops and have hinted at peace talks with Russia, report says

Alia Shoaib

Israel's airstrikes and incursion against Hezbollah show that the US can't easily rein in Netanyahu, foreign policy experts say

Lloyd Lee,Katherine Tangalaki…

China carried out its first known test of an ICBM in the Pacific Ocean for more than four decades

Hannah Abraham

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