There may be little solace for Maruti, M&M, Hero Moto, Bajaj Auto and others in the July auto sales data

There may be little solace for Maruti, M&M, Hero Moto, Bajaj Auto and others in the July auto sales data
BCCL
  • The July sales numbers are likely to see a gradual recovery on the back of ramp-up in the supply chain, strong rural sentiments and rise in preference for personal mobility to follow social distancing norms.
  • According to Nirmal Bang, the retail sales were affected in July due to erratic lockdowns and tighter financing but were higher than the June numbers.
  • Here are the estimated sales numbers for top automobile manufacturers.
While the first quarter was a complete washout for the Indian automobile sector, led by subdued demand, the July numbers are likely to rebound on hopes of improved supply chain, strong rural sentiments and rise in preference for personal mobility to help adhere to social distancing norms.

Automakers are also optimistic on the future recovery. As several states began easing rules, production capacities have improved, dealerships have resumed operations and rural demand has been ticking upwards.

“We have reached current capacities in the range of 85-90% and in addition, more than 85% of our dealerships are open pan India. This could have been improved but for some states which went into lockdown during the month. Financing for our vehicles has reached pre-covid levels currently,” said Shashank Srivastava, Executive Director, Maruti Suzuki.

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Maruti Suzuki IndiaJuly 2020 sales (expected)July 2019 salesGrowth %
Domestic sales88,057100,006-11.90%
Exports6,9449,258-25%
Total sales95,000109,264-13.10%
Mahindra & MahindraJuly 2020 sales (expected)July 2019 salesGrowth %
Automotive27,56240,142-31.30%
Farm Equipment24,00019,99220.10%
Total Sales51,56260,134-14.30%

“Dispatches from OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturer) are likely to improve sequentially on further ramp-up in plant utilization levels, following the recovery in supply chain and labour issues. But, dispatches are expected to be lower on a year-on-year basis even on a low base,” Nirmal Bang, a broking firm said in its estimate report.

Tractors and two-wheelers have seen some recovery on back of strong rural demand. That trend is expected to sustain for July as well.

According to Nirmal Bang, the retail sales were affected in July due to erratic lockdowns and tighter financing but were higher than the June numbers. It also said that there had been a lot of down-trading with higher demand in the 100-125cc segment. “All the 2W OEMs have taken a price increase of about ₹1,500-2,000 over the last two months.”
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Bajaj AutoJuly 2020 sales (expected)July 2019 salesGrowth %
Motorcycle273,879322,210-15.00%
Three-wheeler26,20458,563-55.30%
Exports147,869175,384-21.20%
Total300,082380,773-16%

Hero MotoCorpJuly 2020 sales (expected)July 2019 salesGrowth %
Motorcycle482,229535,810-10%

TVS Motor CompanyJuly 2020 sales (expected)July 2019 salesGrowth %
Two-wheeler199,226265,679-25%
Three-wheeler8,27213,786-40%
Total207,498279,465-26%

Bajaj Auto CFO Soumen Ray told PTI that the company is "seeing month-on-month improvement in sales. There was no sale in April while the decline was very large in May. June was significantly better than May and July is much better than June."

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Despite a recovery in the overall sector, the commercial vehicle segment will remain the dullest due to economic slowdown, excess capacity and limited driver availability.

Ashok LeylandJuly 2020 sales (expected)July 2019 salesGrowth %
MHCV1,0086,722-85%
LCV2,1034,205-50%
Total sales3,11110,927-71.50%

Eicher MotorsJuly 2020 sales (expected)July 2019 salesGrowth %
VECV1,6004,001-60%
Royal Enfield (RE)40,63954,185-25%
Source: Nirmal Bang Brokerage
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