There may be little solace for Maruti, M&M, Hero Moto, Bajaj Auto and others in the July auto sales data

• The July sales numbers are likely to see a gradual recovery on the back of ramp-up in the supply chain, strong rural sentiments and rise in preference for personal mobility to follow social distancing norms.
• According to $4, the retail sales were affected in July due to erratic lockdowns and tighter financing but were higher than the June numbers.
• Here are the estimated sales numbers for top automobile manufacturers.

While the first quarter was a complete washout for the Indian automobile sector, led by subdued demand, the July numbers are likely to rebound on hopes of improved supply chain, strong rural sentiments and rise in preference for personal mobility to help adhere to social distancing norms.

Automakers are also optimistic on the future recovery. As several states began easing rules, production capacities have improved, dealerships have resumed operations and rural demand has been ticking upwards.

“We have reached current capacities in the range of 85-90% and in addition, more than 85% of our dealerships are open pan India. This could have been improved but for some states which went into lockdown during the month. Financing for our vehicles has reached pre-covid levels currently,” said $4.

Maruti Suzuki India	July 2020 sales (expected)	July 2019 sales	Growth %
Domestic sales	88,057	100,006	-11.90%
Exports	6,944	9,258	-25%
Total sales	95,000	109,264	-13.10%

Mahindra & Mahindra	July 2020 sales (expected)	July 2019 sales	Growth %
Automotive	27,562	40,142	-31.30%
Farm Equipment	24,000	19,992	20.10%
Total Sales	51,562	60,134	-14.30%

“Dispatches from OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturer) are likely to improve sequentially on further ramp-up in plant utilization levels, following the recovery in supply chain and labour issues. But, dispatches are expected to be lower on a year-on-year basis even on a low base,” Nirmal Bang, a broking firm said in$4.

Tractors and two-wheelers have seen some recovery on back of strong rural demand. That trend is expected to sustain for July as well.

According to $4, the retail sales were affected in July due to erratic lockdowns and tighter financing but were higher than the June numbers. It also said that there had been a lot of down-trading with higher demand in the 100-125cc segment. “All the 2W OEMs have taken a price increase of about ₹1,500-2,000 over the last two months.”

Bajaj Auto	July 2020 sales (expected)	July 2019 sales	Growth %
Motorcycle	273,879	322,210	-15.00%
Three-wheeler	26,204	58,563	-55.30%
Exports	147,869	175,384	-21.20%
Total	300,082	380,773	-16%

Hero MotoCorp	July 2020 sales (expected)	July 2019 sales	Growth %
Motorcycle	482,229	535,810	-10%

TVS Motor Company	July 2020 sales (expected)	July 2019 sales	Growth %
Two-wheeler	199,226	265,679	-25%
Three-wheeler	8,272	13,786	-40%
Total	207,498	279,465	-26%

Bajaj Auto CFO Soumen Ray told PTI that the company is "seeing month-on-month improvement in sales. There was no sale in April while the decline was very large in May. June was significantly better than May and July is much better than June."

Despite a recovery in the overall sector, the commercial vehicle segment will remain the dullest due to economic slowdown, excess capacity and limited driver availability.

Ashok Leyland	July 2020 sales (expected)	July 2019 sales	Growth %
MHCV	1,008	6,722	-85%
LCV	2,103	4,205	-50%
Total sales	3,111	10,927	-71.50%

Eicher Motors	July 2020 sales (expected)	July 2019 sales	Growth %
VECV	1,600	4,001	-60%
Royal Enfield (RE)	40,639	54,185	-25%

Source: Nirmal Bang Brokerage
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