Bitcoin's 20% rise in the last week suggests momentum is building towards a sustained period of gains, research firm says

Bitcoin's 20% rise in the last week suggests momentum is building towards a sustained period of gains, research firm says
Bitcoin slumped Wednesday and into Thursday.Jirapong Manustrong/Getty Images
  • Bitcoin on Wednesday was on track to notch its fifth consecutive win.
  • Bespoke said bitcoin was breaking a downtrend this week by closing above its 50-day moving average for the first time since November.

Bitcoin's sharp rebound in recent sessions suggests the $836 billion cryptocurrency is breaking its downtrend and gearing up for another rally, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

"While equities have hit a speed bump since the start of the year, Bitcoin had been in a downtrend since the fall. That is, until this week," said the firm in a note Wednesday.

The digital asset has been fighting back from a slump and was on course Wednesday to notch a fifth consecutive advance, trading around $44,420. The price has climbed 20% over the past seven sessions and has jumped 35% from its intraday low of 33,184.06 on January 24.

The moves lifted bitcoin above its 50-day moving average on Monday for the first time in 81 days, putting an end to the record number of days it ran below that average. The record tracing back to November 17 included Saturdays and Sundays as cryptocurrencies trade during weekends.

Retaking that average bodes well for the bitcoin price outlook. Bespoke looked at bitcoin's behavior after it logs its first close above a 50-day moving average, going back to 2015.


The "crypto has tended toward significant outperformance relative to the norm in the next week, month, and 3 month periods on a median basis," it said. In July 2021, for instance, bitcoin ended a 76-day run below the moving average. After closing above that, it rose by 13.08% in the following week and by 72.36% six months after that.

Six months after climbing back above the 50-day average, bitcoin's performance has been consistently positive overall, with the only decline logged in 2018 when the digital currency's value dropped by 50%, Bespoke said. And going out futher also points to gains.

"One year out has seen positive performance following each of these past instances with a median gain of 122%," the firm said, "but that is basically right in line with the historical median one-year gain since 2014."

Earlier Wednesday, JPMorgan said bitcoin's "fair value" was 12% below current levels based on its volatility in relation to gold.