JPMorgan reveals the 6 issues that will shape the endgame scenario for coronavirus as it derails the financial system - and shares what investors should be prepared for
- With the novel coronavirus spreading and hitting global markets with incredible speed, John Normand of JPMorgan says it's smart to start thinking about a framework for how the crisis will ultimately end.
- He's considering issues including the number of infections the US might experience and the contours of the oncoming global recession.
- Getting a sense of those outcomes can help investors get a sense of how the crisis is proceeding, when a turnaround is beginning, and whether a best- or worst-case scenario is developing.
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After weeks of market chaos and "social distancing," it might be hard to picture an end to the COVID-19 crisis.
But John Normand, head of cross-asset fundamental strategy for JPMorgan Chase, says it's a good idea to start thinking about that conclusion in broad terms - not because the outbreak is anywhere near over, but because everything about it has happened so quickly.
"The speed at which this crisis is moving should trigger some thoughts about what the endgame will look like across several social, economic, policy and market dimensions," he wrote in a recent client note. "Usually this sort of hypothesizing can wait until a few quarters into a crisis, but the stress created by partial or total lockdowns in so many parts of the global economy warrants some tentative thoughts now."
With that established, Normand laid out six issues he says will shape the endgame scenario for coronavirus as it derails the financial system:
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