Hiring likely slowed in August as the US-China trade war raged

Hiring likely slowed in August as the US-China trade war raged

american flag construction workers

David McNew/Getty

City Hall is seen in the distance as construction workers help carry a huge American flag in a march to the Metropolitan Detention Center during one a several May Day immigration-themed events on May 1, 2014 in Los Angeles, California

  • The US jobs report out Friday is expected to show hiring slowed in August but held at a solid pace, offering the latest official snapshot of the economy weeks after a key recession warning flashed.
  • Economists forecast the Labor Department report will show the US added 160,000 nonfarm payrolls last month.
  • That would be fewer than in July before but enough unemployment levels near historic lows at 3.7%.
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The US jobs report out Friday is expected to show hiring slowed in August but held at a solid pace, offering the latest official snapshot of the economy weeks after a key recession warning flashed.Economists forecast the Labor Department report will show the US added 160,000 nonfarm payrolls last month, fewer than in July before but enough unemployment levels near historic lows at 3.7%. Average hourly earnings are expected to increase 0.3%, the same as the month before.
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"While specific sectors are suffering under the trade war, the labor market overall remains fundamentally healthy," said Daniel Zhao, a senior economist at Glassdoor.

Uncertainty from trade tensions between the US and China has grown increasingly evident in recent weeks, fueling broader concerns about the economy. In a rare development that has historically preceded recessions, the yield curve inverted last month for the first time since before the global financial crisis.

The record 107th month of job gains was unlikely to temper market hopes that the Federal Reserve would lower interest rates again later this month. The US and China raised tariffs on each other over the weekend and vowed to expand them to far more consumer products, moves that could slow investment and spending.
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"The narrowing in profit margins, disappointment in corporate earnings and a second-quarter decline in fixed business investment-which has defined the response to the radical changes in trade policy-are likely to lead to reduced hours, consideration of layoffs, and subsequently, reductions in workforce," said Joseph Brusuelas, the chief economist at RSM.

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