scorecard3 reasons why bitcoin can still reach $150,000 by 2025, according to Bernstein
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3 reasons why bitcoin can still reach $150,000 by 2025, according to Bernstein

Filip De Mott   

3 reasons why bitcoin can still reach $150,000 by 2025, according to Bernstein
Investment2 min read
  • Bitcoin will still reach $150,000 by 2025, Bernstein reaffirmed in a new note.
  • ETF and spot bitcoin demand has remained strong, analysts wrote.

Bitcoin is again finding its feet, and is back on course to reach $150,000 by next year, Bernstein reaffirmed in a Monday note.

The firm's senior analyst Gautam Chhugani has for months now projected that the apex token will achieve this price target, and explained that bitcoin's recent fall to as low as $57,000 did not signal a permanent contraction.

"Investors ask us if anything has changed on our $150K Bitcoin price view and if the post-halving price correction has affected our conviction. If anything, we feel even better about our Bitcoin call," he and analyst Mahika Sapra wrote.

That represents 137% upside from current levels.

First, inflows into bitcoin spot ETFs have continued, and have already made up half of the volumes Bernstein expected for all of 2024 — despite existing for less than four months.

"The Bitcoin ETF launch has been the most successful ETF launch ever, and we expect continued ETF driven demand for the rest of the year, led by growing asset allocation towards Bitcoin from private banks, wealth managers, pension and sovereign funds. Overall, between 2024 and 2025, we expect ~$70bn of new inflows," the note said. Since their inception, around $12 billion has poured into these funds.

Last week may have worried investors that this trend is reversing, as the funds suffered 8 days of outflows. However, not only did this end, but even the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust notched its first inflow day, ending one of the lasting headwinds for the ETF market.

Second, rule updates from the Financial Accounting Standards Board pertaining to crypto are driving corporate interest in bitcoin, Bernstein said. For instance, Block has announced monthly buying of the token, despite already owning around $840 million worth of bitcoin.

Bernstein also noted strong demand for direct spot bitcoin purchases, which have helped offset the recent ETF outflows.

Third, April's bitcoin halving has yet to significantly strain crypto mining activity. During this four-year event, the amount of tokens awarded to successful miners is slashed, in order to drawdown on bitcoin's supply.

Though the situation has been projected to making mining more competitive, the amount of computational resources needed to mine hasn't grown meaningfully for now.

Meanwhile, miner equipment prices remain at muted levels, even as bitcoin's value has risen. That gives the sector higher profitable capacity, and keeps the current players dominant in the space.

"Overall, healthy Bitcoin demand and continued discipline in the Bitcoin mining cycle, allowing the Bitcoin party to last longer this time. $150K in 2025, is very much on the table," Chhugani wrote.

Bernstein isn't alone in holding onto its bull call. Last week, Standard Chartered reported that bitcoin would still reach $150,000 this year, though not before correcting to $50,000.