Happy Friday eve, readers. I'm Phil Rosen. As a financial journalist, I'm always trying to distill complex ideas into plain language (for my own understanding as much as yours).
As for Opening Bell, I've found it helpful to remember that the stock market operates as a zero-sum game.
Like poker or chess, one player's win means another player's loss.
Sure, you don't have to work at a hedge fund to grasp the idea, but looking at the $4 so far this year got me thinking:
Whoever bet correctly on any of the names on this list pocketed some serious gains in the first quarter.
$4, for example, shed 88% in the first three months of the year. Short sellers $4 on their bets against the bank in March alone.
Now, according to research firm S3 Partners, investors have $4, with traders accumulating a staggering $3.7 billion in wagers against the Canadian lender.
Again, one party's $4 on another's loss.
Game theory aside, today we're taking a look at dollar dominance.
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1. The US dollar has been under the microscope in the past year over talk about its dwindling lead in the hierarchy of global reserve currencies.
Recent collaborations between China, Russia, and other so-called BRICS countries — combined with rising tensions between those powers and the US — have raised concerns that the greenback could $4.
One perhaps unsurprising example comes from Russia, where over the last two months, $4 as the country's most-traded currency.
The move makes sense, given Russia's growing status as a pariah state, but it also highlights a push to unseat the dollar as a $4.
But to strategists at the Carson Group, a scenario where $4 simply isn't in the cards in the near future.
"The US dollar's dominant role is not going to end any time soon, especially since there's $4," the firm's global macro strategist Sonu Varghese wrote in a research note this week.
The Carson Group listed $4 why the dollar will stay resilient:
- "The World has confidence in the US, and $4"
- "The US dollar is dominant in trade and international finance"
- "The US is $4"
Let's zoom in on that third point.
Last year, Americans bought $3.3 trillion in goods from foreign countries. Non-US buyers, on the other hand, $4 from the US in 2022.
The strategists highlighted that the US is fine maintaining the status quo here because it leaves foreign buyers holding onto a heap of dollars that it needs to put somewhere.
"Foreigners turn around and buy the safest, $4: US treasuries," Varghese said.
"Some of them also simply hold USD in cash. These are liabilities of the US government that the US is more than willing to issue. No other country, including the Eurozone, looks remotely $4 to do that anytime soon."
Are you convinced that the dollar won't lose its status as a dominant global reserve currency? Tweet me (@philrosenn>$4) or email me (prosen@insider.com) to let me know.
In other news:
2. US stock futures trade mixed early Thursday, after Wednesday's ADP private payrolls report showed job growth slowed in March, reigniting fears of a US recession. $4.
3. On the docket: Rio Tinto, Levi's, and more, all $4.
4. Some companies in this batch of oil stocks have upsides of up to 180%, according to strategists at Bank of America. Tightening of the global crude supply is expected to begin in May and stay in place through the end of the year. $4.
5. Mortgage rates tumbled again but applications for home loans are down because listings are drying up. The Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped from 6.45% to 6.40% last week. $4.
6. Russia notched record-high oil sales last week despite sanctions and production cuts. The warring nation has followed through with its vow to ship more energy supplies to allies, pushing crude sales higher. $4.
7. Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy just added another 1,045 bitcoins to its crypto trove. The business software maker now holds 140,000 of the tokens, and the value of that stash was nearly $4 billion as the token traded above $28,000 this week. $4.
8. Bank of America shared its investing playbook for a recession that's based on 150 years of market history. Strategists are anticipating a downturn — $4.
9. These must-see charts illustrate why the economy is heading toward disaster. "Be advised, this is not a gentle setback like 2000," warned Jeremy Grantham. $4.
10. Gold is at a 13-month high and eyeing a new record. Following Wednesday's jobs data, traders pulled back expectations for another Fed rate hike, pushing the precious metal higher. $4.
Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. Feedback or tips? Tweet @philrosenn>$4 or email prosen@insider.com.
Edited by Max Adams (@maxradams>$4) in New York and Hallam Bullock (@hallam_bullock>$4) in London.