NFL WEEK 4: Our official predictions for who wins this weekend
Philadelphia Eagles (+4.5) over Green Bay Packers*
Last Thursday night, we backed the Jacksonville Jaguars riding the trend of betting against teams that were getting more than 70% of bets on a game. This week, the Green Bay Packers are getting 71% of the tickets against the Philadelphia Eagles, according to the Action Network.
We'll ride the trend again this week and hope the Birds can find a way to keep things close against Aaron Rodgers.
Cleveland Browns (+7) over Baltimore Ravens*
After another lackluster performance on Sunday night against the Los Angeles Rams, the Browns' bandwagon is much less crowded than it was at the start of the season.
Still, this line goes a bit too far. The Ravens have proven themselves a capable team, and could very well be the third-best team in the AFC behind the Patriots and Chiefs. But this is a divisional game and the Browns can't play worse than they have so far.
Cleveland feels set to bounce back and cover this number and maybe win the game outright.
Houston Texans* (-4) over Carolina Panthers
Kyle Allen looked like a stud for the Panthers taking over for an injured Cam Newton, throwing for four touchdowns in a 38-20 win over the Arizona Cardinals. The performance gave Panthers fans reason to believe they could still be competitive as Newton works his way back to health.
This week, however, Allen will face off against a Texans defense that should offer much more pressure. Betting against a green starting quarterback who is on the road and being chased around by J.J. Watt feels like the right play.
Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) over Detroit Lions*
As "Good Morning Football" noted earlier in the week, this will be Patrick Mahomes' first NFL game inside a dome. With the bonkers numbers Mahomes has already put up in his young career, it feels impossible that he did it all in the elements of the NFL's outdoor stadiums, but it's true.
Inside the dome, we might see Mahomes hit a new level of brilliance, and it's tough to imagine the Lions can keep pace.
New England Patriots (-7) over Buffalo Bills*
This is a tough game to pick, and I would suggest passing on it in favor of spending your money elsewhere on the Sunday slate.
The Bills are a questionable 3-0, with wins over the Jets, Giants, and Bengals. That said, the Patriots' victories are also far from impressive, taking down the Steelers, Dolphins, and Jets in their so-far perfect season.
Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have the obvious advantage. But as 7-point road favorites, in what will assuredly be the wildest outing for members of the Bills Mafia in years, is a scary proposition. Ultimately, I'm more comfortable backing Brady than going against him, but I would keep this game as far away from my Eliminator pool as possible.
Oakland Raiders (+7) over Indianapolis Colts*
The Indianapolis Colts have gotten along fine without Andrew Luck this season and would be 3-0 on the season if not for a poor kicking day from Adam Vinatieri in Week 1. But it feels like the Colts are bound to his a surprising roadblock at some point this season, and this week could get caught sleeping against the Raiders as they look ahead to their looming matchup against the Chiefs next week.
Oakland might not be able to pull out a win outright, but it doesn't feel like the Colts are running away with the win on Sunday.
Los Angeles Chargers (-16) over Miami Dolphins*
After the Dolphins' awful season debut against the Baltimore Ravens, we decided we would fade them every week until they proved capable of covering a spread. We're now 3-0 on the season betting against Miami and will continue to ride this trend as long as the tickets keep cashing.
Atlanta Falcons* (-4) over Tennessee Titans
This is another game I would prefer to stay away from as both teams are something of a mystery. The Titans have looked pretty brutal since their Week 1 win over the Browns, and the Falcons have been up-and-down all year. I'll back the home team and hope for the best.
New York Giants* (-3) over Washington Redskins
I was initially on Washington in this game, believing that Giants fans might be a bit too excited about Daniel Jones after one performance. But Case Keenum has been in and out of practice this week dealing with a foot injury, bringing me back around to New York.
The Giants defense is still one of the worst in the league, but hopefully, they can play up in front of a raucous crowd hoping to cheer Jones on to his first win at home at MetLife Stadium.
Los Angeles Rams* (-10) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is a slightly higher line than I'd usually be comfortable with in this spot, but the Buccaneers defense just gave up 33 points to the New York Giants in a game Saquon Barkley mostly missed. I don't know how Tampa Bay is going to be able to cover the Rams' trio of talented receivers on Sunday. As long as Jared Goff can stay upright and play slightly above average, Los Angeles should cruise here.
Arizona Cardinals* (+5) over Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks needed Russell Wilson to pull off every trick in the book in order two not lose by two touchdowns at home against the Saints on Sunday.
While this could be a bounce-back spot for Seattle, I think Arizona finds a way to make this one competitive in the fourth quarter, and the spread is just high enough that a lucky backdoor cover feels open.
Chicago Bears* (-2.5) over Minnesota Vikings
Vikings running back Dalvin Cook has led the league in rushing so far this season, but this week will face the buzzsaw that is Khalil Mack and the Bears.
This feels like a statement game for the Bears, who have yet to prove they are a top team in the NFC.
Denver Broncos* (-3) over Jacksonville Jaguars
The Denver Broncos lost to the Bears on a last-second field goal in their first home game of the season. It was their first home loss in September since 2012, but they still covered as underdogs.
Gardner Minshew has earned headlines for his confident play and mustache, but on the road, he might finally come back down to Earth a bit. The Broncos defense has yet to record a sack this year, but that dam has to break sooner or later.
New Orleans Saints* (+2.5) over Dallas Cowboys
Dallas has looked like the premier team in the NFC so far this season, but this line feels like it's too easy. I only have to lay less than a field goal on the best team in the NFC to beat a backup quarterback? What gives?
When these things feel too easy, they usually are, so I'm backing the Saints at home in primetime and hoping the New Orleans faithful can scream the Cowboys out of the building.
Cincinnati Bengals (+4) over Pittsburgh Steelers*
The Bengals and Steelers are both terrible, plain and simple.
Last week, the Steelers were able to manage just six points off of five turnovers against the San Francisco 49ers — a performance that should trouble anyone hoping for some fantasy value from Steelers players in the wake of Ben Roethlisberger's injury.
Back in Pittsburgh, the Steelers might prove that they have righted the ship, but in a battle of winless teams, I'll take the points and back the team that has already put in good performances against the Seahawks and Bills so far this season.
Now, check out which teams are atop our NFL power rankings...
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