- Economists place the odds of a recession this year at around 40% — the lowest since January 2022, a new Bloomberg survey found.
- Respondents lifted their forecasts for GDP, consumer spending, private investment, and government expenditures compared to a survey last month.
Economists are feeling more optimistic about the US economy.
In a new Bloomberg $4, economists place the odds of a recession this year at around 40% — the lowest since January 2022.
Those hopes of dodging a downturn largely rest on the strength of the job market and robust spending. The respondents lifted their forecasts for GDP, consumer spending, private investment, and government expenditures compared to a survey last month.
The 72 surveyed conomists expect year-over-year consumer spending to grow about 1.9% as opposed to the 1.5% forecasted last month. GDP outlook rose to 2.1% compared to 1.5% in the last survey.
As for the labor market, economists now see unemployment peaking at 4.1% later this year instead of the 4.2% predicted last month. They also expect employers to add more jobs to the economy through 2026.
Recent data has already been promising. Consumer spending last month came in hot, $4 year-over-year. GDP growth also $4 in the fourth-quarter last year, notching an annualized growth rate of 3.3%, above the expected 2%. Further, the unemployment rate sits near historically low levels, at 3.7%.
Surveyed economists had placed a 65% chance the economy tipped into a downturn back in early 2023, but the picture has dramatically changed since then.