Bihar likely to get NDA government for the fourth term as it secures 122 seats— but Nitish Kumar-led JDU underperforms as compared to the BJP

Bihar likely to get NDA government for the fourth term as it secures 122 seats— but Nitish Kumar-led JDU underperforms as compared to the BJP
Bihar Chief Minister Nitish KumarBCCL
  • The Bihar Election 2020 may be the fourth consecutive win for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) with 122 wins under its belt so far.
  • Trends show that the biggest party in the state will be the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) of the opposing Grand Alliance, or Mahagathbandhan.
  • Within the NDA, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been able to score more wins in comparison to its ally, the Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal United (JDU).
Defying exit polls, the NDA is poised to form the next government in Bihar. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal United (JDU) alliance has now secured the required 122 seats to form the majority.

The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-led Grand Alliance is lagging behind with 110 wins. Only three constituencies are left to report their final tally. And, in all three, the NDA is leading.

The Bharatiya Janata Party, in its part, has already declared victory even though the final results are still pending.

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AllianceLeadingWonTotal
National Democratic Alliance (NDA)3122125
Grand Alliance (Mahagathbandhan)0110110
Others088

However, the credit for the NDA’s success does not fall with the Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal United (JDU). The JDU only has 41 seats under its belt while its ally, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has won in 72 constituencies.

Overall, the NDA has around 121 confirmed wins under its belt and is leading in the four constituencies where the results are pending, versus the Grand Alliance’s 110 seats.

PartyWonLeadingTotal
BJP72274
JDU41243
RJP75075
Congress19019
Others32032
Total2394243

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Should the NDA win the Bihar General Assembly Election this year, it will be their fourth round of being at the helm. The bigger question, however, will be whether Nitish Kumar will continue as Chief Minister even if BJP has more seats than the JDU.

Kumar was reportedly facing a massive anti-incumbency wave after being at the helm for nearly 15 minutes. However, he seems resolute in the fact that he will once again take up the post for the seventh time.

"Modi's image sailed us through," Kailash Vijayvargiya, a senior leader of the BJP, told NDTV. "By evening, we will decide on the issues of government formation and leadership."

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The game of alliances
In order to form a government in Bihar, a party needs 122 seats. However, the tally so far indicates that only a triangular contest will determine who ultimately comes to the helm — an alliance will invariably be required is no single party has been able to hit the magic number.

While most triangle politics leave little room for smaller parties to outperform, the left-leaning and Grand Alliance-aligned CPI (ML) was able to grab nine seats of its own.

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