Every Democrat running for president falls into 1 of these 5 groups based on who supports them

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Every Democrat running for president falls into 1 of these 5 groups based on who supports them

First 2020 democratic debate

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  • There are 17 major candidates currently competing for the Democratic primary nomination, and the leading candidates will be aggressively poaching other candidates' supporters.
  • To help make sense of where all the 2020 Democratic candidates stand, Insider has been conducting a recurring SurveyMonkey Audience national poll since December 2018.
  • We're interested in using our polling to figure out who a given candidate's supporters would flock to if their first choice quit the race.
  • All 17 candidates can be placed into one of five groups based on which of the current other top-tier candidates their supporters would be most satisfied with as the nominee.
  • Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.

There are 17 major candidates currently competing for the Democratic primary nomination. And with the first primary contests just a few months away, the leading candidates will be aggressively poaching other candidates' supporters.

To help make sense of where all the 2020 Democratic candidates stand, Insider has been conducting a recurring SurveyMonkey Audience national poll since December 2018. You can download every poll here, down to the individual respondent data.

Read more about how the Insider 2020 Democratic primary tracker works.

At this point in the race where we're likely to see more candidates running out of money and dropping out, we're interested in using our polling to figure out who a given candidate's supporters would flock to if their first choice quit the race.

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Read more: The 2020 Democratic presidential candidates who would benefit most if these 13 mid-tier contenders dropped out of the race

All 17 candidates can be placed into one of the following groups based on which of the current other top-tier candidates their supporters would be most satisfied with as the nominee.

  • The three leading candidates in Democratic primary polls.
  • Candidates whose supporters have high levels of satisfaction with former Vice President Joe Biden.
  • 2020 contenders whose supporters would be satisfied with Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Biden as the nominees.
  • Candidates whose backers would be highly satisfied with Warren and Sen. Bernie Sanders as the nominee.
  • Contenders whose supporters would be most satisfied with Warren and Sen. Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee.

Here's a closer look at which candidates make up all five groups:

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Group 1: The Frontrunners

Group 1: The Frontrunners

The first main group of Democratic primary contenders are the three top-polling frontrunners who regularly poll in the double-digits.

Biden currently holds a Real Clear Politics polling average of 27.2%, Warren's average has steadily increased up to 23%, and Sanders' polling average is 17%.

In Insider's most recent Democratic primary poll, looking at the people aware of them, 63% of likely Democratic primary voters aware of her would be satisfied with Warren as the nominee, 55% would be satisfied with Biden as the nominee, and 53% would be satisfied with Sanders.

Group 2: The Warren-Sanders candidates

Group 2: The Warren-Sanders candidates

Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, businessman Andrew Yang, and author Marianne Williamson are running extremely unique outsider presidential campaigns.

Gabbard is running on a platform of ending the US's involvement in endless foreign wars and conflicts, Williamson wants to unseat President Donald Trump with a combination of love and spiritual healing, and Yang has amassed a huge following through his innovative policy proposals, which include giving every American $1,000 a month.

It's no surprise that those candidates' supporters also gravitate to Sanders and Warren, who are running economic populist campaigns that are fundamentally distrustful and wary of the prevailing political and economic establishments.

69% of Yang supporters, 70% of Gabbard supporters, and 83% of Williamson's supporters would be satisfied with Sanders as the nominee.

And 67% of Yang's backers, 68% of Gabbard supporters, and 80% of Williamson backers would be satisfied with Warren as the nominee.

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Group 3: Warren-Biden Democrats

Group 3: Warren-Biden Democrats

Harris, businessman Tom Steyer, and former Rep. Beto O'Rourke's supporters also have high levels of satisfaction with Warren and Biden as potential nominees.

It's not hugely shocking that these candidates supporters' also hold high levels of affinity for Warren and Biden.

All three candidates identify as solidly progressive Democrats, but are still friendly with the Democratic party establishment and haven't eschewed high-dollar private fundraisers with wealthy donors like Warren and Sanders have. (Before he dropped out of the race, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio would have fallen in this category, too).

75% of Harris supporters, 71% of O'Rourke's supporters, and 80% of Steyer supporters like Warren. Meanwhile, 81% of Steyer supporters, 69% of O'Rourke supporters, and 62% of Harris supporters would also be satisfied with Biden.

Group 4: the Biden-ites

Group 4: the Biden-ites

Also not surprisingly, the supporters of centrist, white male candidates currently polling at the back of the pack all choose Biden — the moderate standard-bearer in the race — as their second choice.

82% of Rep. Tim Ryan's supporters, 80% of Gov. Steve Bullock's supporters, 77% of Sen. Michael Bennet's backers, and 75% of former Rep. John Delaney's supporters would be satisfied with Biden as the nominee, meaning Biden plausibly stands to gain most when those three candidates drop out.

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Group 5: Warren-Harris candidates

Group 5: Warren-Harris candidates

Supporters of Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Kamala Harris, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, and former HUD Secretary Julian Castro all listed Warren and Harris as their second and third choices, respectively.

Like Warren and Harris, those candidates see themselves as consensus-builders, are positioning themselves as political trailblazers ushering in a new generation of leadership, and bring some form of diversity to the table.

76% of Buttigieg supporters, 79% of Booker supporters, 79% of Klobuchar supporters, and 86% of Castro supporters would also be satisfied with Warren as the nominee.

And 69% of Buttigieg's backers, 76% of Booker supporters, 77% of Klobuchar backers, and 80% of Castro supporters would be satisfied with Harris.

Read more:

3 big reasons Joe Biden is no longer the definitive 2020 Democratic primary frontrunner

Here's who will be onstage for the October 15 Democratic debate hosted by CNN and The New York Times, what time it'll start, and how to watch

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