Santa Claus Rally may hit markets early as BJP storms to power in Hindi Heartland

• Stock market will give a thumbs up to the outcome as investors are betting Modi getting a clear majority in 2024 too.
• The results of assembly polls in four states - Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Telangana- are being considered as the semifinal before the Lok Sabha polls which are scheduled for 2024.
• Morgan Stanley forecasts a 14% upside to the BSE Sensex by December 2024 in their base case scenario. This is based on assumptions of continuity in the government with a majority mandate, stable policy, robust domestic growth, and benign oil prices.

Santa Claus may visit Dalal Street well before Christmas this December, as the Bharatiya Janata Party delivered a hattrick on Sunday. The ruling BJP has demonstrated that it still has the pulse of the people in the Hindi heartland, despite the conflicting views that came from psephologists. Even before all the rounds of counting were over, spokespersons of the party called the elections and celebrations kicked off in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and even Chhattisgarh.

By the time when the final vote count was over, around 9:00 pm, BJP had won all the three states. Congress had a consolation win in Telangana. It is noteworthy, that these elections are were the last before Lok Sabha polls which are scheduled for 2024 and were thus being seen as semifinal of sorts.

While exit polls showed a tight contest between BJP and the Congress in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, the Congress Party was expected to return to power in Chhattisgarh. However, BJP’s election machinery yet again pulled off a hattrick, with the Hindu right wing party storming to power in MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.

The outlook for India's stock market is expected to be positive ahead of the New Year (2024) but the journey may be volatile given that general elections are around the corner. According to Morgan Stanley, the market is likely to price in continuity and a majority government, leading to a rise in equities. Several factors contribute to this positive outlook, including strong macro stability, forecasted earnings growth, and a reliable source of domestic risk capital.

Morgan Stanley forecasts a 14% upside to the BSE Sensex by December 2024 in their base case scenario. This is based on assumptions of continuity in the government with a majority mandate, stable policy, robust domestic growth, and benign oil prices. They expect BSE Sensex earnings to compound at a rate of 21.5% annually through F2026E. However, the analysis also acknowledges the potential for volatility in 2024, which is evident in their bull-bear scenarios.

Rajasthan: BJP makes a comeback

The Bharatiya Janata Party is returning to power in Rajasthan having won 115 seats, as per the Election Commission of India. There are 199 Assembly seats in Rajasthan, and the halfway mark is 100. The Congress was in the incumbent party in the state.

The beating of drums and dancing by BJP workers started early in Jaipur as official EC trends showed the party build lead. Rahul Gandhi-led Congress won 69 seats.

Former chief minister and BJP leader Vasundhara Raje won from the Jhalrapatan seat. Among the other BJP candidates who won were Diya Kumari from Vidhyadhnagar, Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore from Jhotwara, Samaram from Pindwara Abu, Govind Prasad from Manohar Thana, Jaswant Singh Yadav from Behror, Mahendra Pal Meena from Jamwa Ramgarh, Anita Bhadel from Ajmer South, and Madan Dilawar from Ramganj Mandi.

The Congress candidates who secured victory included Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot from Sardarpura, Sachin Pilot from Tonk, Shanti Dhariwal from Kota North, Tikaram Jully from Alwar Rural, and Anita Jatav from Hindaun.

Madhya Pradesh: BJP returns

The ruling BJP looks on course to retain power in Madhya Pradesh. As per the latest figures available with the Election Commission, the BJP was leading in 163 of the 230 seats in Madhya Pradesh, while the Congress was ahead in 66 seats.

Many party leaders attributed the electoral success to PM Narendra Modi, who addressed as many as 14 poll rallies in the state. The state Congress office bore a deserted look. MP Congress president Kamal Nath and senior party leader Digvijaya Singh were in the office, holding discussions with party functionaries.

In Budhni assembly constituency, Madhya Pradesh CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan of BJP defeated Vikram Sharma of Congress by over 1 lakh votes. Polling in the single-phase elections on November 17 saw an impressive turnout of 77.82 per cent, surpassing the 2018 voting percentage of 75.63 per cent. The state electorate voted for 2,533 candidates in 230 constituencies. There were 5.59 lakh eligible voters.

Chhattisgarh: BJP back in power

Chhattisgarh, witnessed a close fight between Bharatiya Janata Party and the ruling Congress party in the early hours of counting, as per the trends by the Elections Commission of India.

The BJP crossed the halfway mark by winning 54 seats Out of the total 90 constituencies, the Congress won 35 seats The Gondwana Gantantra Party (GGP) bagged one seat, as per the Election Commission. In the 2018 assembly polls, the Congress had won 68 seats and the then ruling BJP 15. The Janata Congress Chhattisgarh had won five segments.

Much ahead of the elections this year, the Congress declared that the state would procure 20 quintals of paddy per acre from farmers in this kharif season. During electioneering, it promised loan waiver to farmers, also made by it in 2018.

BJP's promises included procurement of 21 quintals of paddy per acre at Rs 3,100 per quintal, annual financial assistance of Rs 12,000 to married women under the 'Mahtari Vandan Yojana', construction of 18 lakh houses under 'PM Awas Yojna', tendu leaf procurement at Rs 5,500 per standard sack and bonus of Rs 4,500 to leaf collectors and annual assistance of Rs 10,000 to landless farm labourers.


(With inputs from ANI and PTI)

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