7 first-round upsets Las Vegas thinks you should include in your women's March Madness bracket

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7 first-round upsets Las Vegas thinks you should include in your women's March Madness bracket
  • March Madness is finally back, and time is winding down for fans to build their brackets.
  • When looking for an upset, it can be helpful to look to Las Vegas bookmakers for guidance.

The 2023 NCAA Tournament is nearly here.

With tip-off just days away, college basketball fans are furiously filling out their brackets in pursuit of a perfect slate of picks. And while that's an impossible — and unprecedented — standard, most of us just want to avoid looking foolish with our selections.

Looking to the bookmakers who determine the spreads of each game is often a smart and simple way to make informed bracket decisions. Using DraftKings' odds, Insider picked the first-round games in the women's tournament that Las Vegas thinks are most likely to end in upsets.

Check 'em out below:

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No. 12 Florida Gulf Coast over No. 5 Washington State

No. 12 Florida Gulf Coast over No. 5 Washington State
Florida Gulf Coast star Tishara Morehouse.AP Photo/Julio Cortez

Florida Gulf Coast has a penchant for breaking brackets on both the men's and women's sides of the NCAA Tournament. And this year, the 12th-seeded Eagles are poised to do it again. They're 3.5-point favorites to take down the No. 5 Washington State Cougars on Saturday.

No. 10 Alabama over No. 7 Baylor

No. 10 Alabama over No. 7 Baylor
Alabama's Brittany Davis leads the Crimson Tide in points, rebounds, and steals.AP Photo/Sean Rayford

Baylor may have long been a perennial Final Four team, but Alabama is the team to beat in this first-round matchup out of Storrs, Connecticut. The Crimson Tide are 1.5-point favorites to take down the Bears Saturday evening. If they manage to defy their seeding, they'll likely score a date with the fearsome UConn Huskies.

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No. 11 UNLV over No. 6 Michigan

No. 11 UNLV over No. 6 Michigan
UNLV's Desi-Rae Young averaged a double-double this season.AP Photo/Ronda Churchill

The Lady Rebels haven't lost a game in 2023, making them one of the hottest teams heading into the tournament. No. 11 UNLV is only a two-point underdog to the sixth-seeded Michigan Wolverines, so if you're willing to take a gamble, this is a promising upset.

No. 9 South Dakota State over No. 8 USC

No. 9 South Dakota State over No. 8 USC
South Dakota State leading scorer Myah Selland.AP Photo/Josh Jurgens

Though their respective seeds suggest the Jackrabbits should be slight underdogs against Southern California, South Dakota State is actually favored by a whopping 6.5 points against the Trojans. Mid-major fans have every incentive to pick the upset in Blacksburg, Virginia, Friday night.

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No. 9 Gonzaga over No. 8 Ole Miss

No. 9 Gonzaga over No. 8 Ole Miss
Gonzaga leading scorer and rebounder Yvonne Ejim.Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Another 8-9 matchup is leaning in the underdog's favor, according to the spreads out of Las Vegas. Even though No. 9 Gonzaga lost the West Coast Conference Tournament championship game in a shock upset to the Portland Pilots, the Bulldogs are one-point favorites against the 8-seed Ole Miss Rebels. This one is as close to a toss-up as it gets.

No. 10 Georgia over No. 7 Florida State

No. 10 Georgia over No. 7 Florida State
Georgia star Diamond Battles.AP Photo/Derick Hingle

Though Florida State is sitting three seeds higher than Georgia, the Seminoles are just 1.5-point favorites to beat the Bulldogs in Iowa City on Friday. Las Vegas seems to think this one could come down to a missed layup or a handful of free throws, so if you can stomach a bit of risk, go with the Dawgs.

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No. 11 Middle Tennessee over No. 6 Colorado

No. 11 Middle Tennessee over No. 6 Colorado
Middle Tennessee's Kseniya Malashka.AP Images/LM Otero

The Blue Raiders have lost just four games all season, and they have no plans to take another L now. Vegas favors No. 11 Middle Tennessee by three points over sixth-seeded Colorado in one of the more promising upset picks of the opening round.

Need a final championship score for your March Madness bracket? Our formula found the average score over the past 34 NCAA women's title games:

Need a final championship score for your March Madness bracket? Our formula found the average score over the past 34 NCAA women's title games:
Dawn Staley and the South Carolina Gamecocks won the 2022 national championship on the women's side.AP Photo/Eric Gay
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